Incidence of medically attended influenza and influenza virus infections confirmed by serology in Ningbo City from 2017-2018 to 2019-2020.

OBJECTIVES: In mainland China, the disease burden of influenza is not yet fully understood. Based on population-based data, we aimed to estimate incidence rates of medically attended influenza and influenza virus infections in Ningbo City. METHODS: We used data for outpatient acute respiratory illness (OARI) from a platform covering all health and medical institutes in Yingzhou District, Ningbo City. We applied generalized additive regression models to estimate influenza-associated excess incidence rate of OARI by age. We recruited local residents aged ≥60 years in the autumn of 2019 and conducted follow-up nearly 9 months later. Every survey, the sera were collected for testing hemagglutination inhibition antibody. RESULTS: From 2017-2018 to 2019-2020, the annual average of influenza-associated incidence rate of OARI in all ages was 10.9%. The influenza-associated incidence rate of OARI was the highest in 2017-2018 (16.9%) and the lowest in 2019-2020 (4.8%). Regularly, influenza-associated incidence rates of OARI were the highest in children aged 5-14 years (range: 44.1-77.6%) and 0-4 years (range: 8.3-46.6%). The annual average of excess OARI incidence rate in all ages was the highest for influenza B/Yamagata (3.9%). The overall incidence rate of influenza infections indicated by serology in elderly people was 21% during the winter season of 2019-2020. CONCLUSIONS: We identified substantial outpatient influenza burden in all ages in Ningbo. Our cohort study limited in elderly people found that this age group had a high risk of seasonal influenza infections. Our study informs the importance of increasing influenza vaccine coverage in high-risk population including elderly people.

Epidemiological feature, viral shedding, and antibody seroconversion among asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 carriers and symptomatic/presymptomatic COVID-19 patients.

BACKGROUND: Novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is pandemic. However, data concerning the epidemiological features, viral shedding, and antibody dynamics between asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 carriers and COVID-19 patients remain controversial. METHODS: We enrolled 193 SARS-CoV-2 infected subjects in Ningbo and Zhoushan, Zhejiang, China, from January 21 to March 6, 2020. All subjects were followed up to monitor the dynamics of serum antibody immunoglobulin M (IgM) and IgG against SARS-CoV-2 using colloidal gold-labeled and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays. RESULTS: Of those, 31 were asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 carriers, 148 symptomatic COVID-19 patients, and 14 presymptomatic COVID-19 patients. Compared to symptomatic COVID-19 patients, asymptomatic carriers were younger and had higher levels of white blood cell and lymphocyte, lower level of C-reactive protein, and shorter viral shedding duration. Conversion of IgM from positive to negative was shorter in asymptomatic carriers than in COVID-19 patients (7.5 vs. 25.5 days, P = 0.030). The proportion of those persistently seropositive for IgG against SARS-CoV-2 was higher in COVID-19 patients than in asymptomatic carriers (66.1% vs. 33.3%, P = 0.037). Viral load was higher in symptomatic patients than presymptomatic patients (P = 0.003) and asymptomatic carriers (P = 0.004). Viral shedding duration was longer in presymptomatic COVID-19 patients than in asymptomatic carriers (48.0 vs. 24.0 days, P = 0.002). Asymptomatic carriers acquired infection more from intra-familial transmission than did COVID-19 patients (89.0% vs. 61.0%, P = 0.028). In 4 familial clusters of SARS-CoV-2 infection, asymptomatic carriers were mainly children and young adults while severe COVID-19 was mainly found in family members older than 60 years with comorbidities. CONCLUSION: Asymptomatic carriers might have a higher antiviral immunity to clear SARS-CoV-2 than symptomatic COVID-19 patients and this antiviral immunity should be contributable to innate and adaptive cellular immunity rather than humoral immunity. The severity of COVID-19 is associated with older age and comorbidities in familial clustering cases.

The epidemiological characteristics and effectiveness of countermeasures to contain coronavirus disease 2019 in Ningbo City, Zhejiang Province, China.

A novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has spread worldwide and led to high disease burden around the world. This study aimed to explore the key parameters of SARS-CoV-2 infection and to assess the effectiveness of interventions to control the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). A susceptible-exposed-infectious-asymptomatic-recovered (SEIAR) model was developed for the assessment. The information of each confirmed case and asymptomatic infection was collected from Ningbo Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to calculate the key parameters of the model in Ningbo City, China. A total of 157 confirmed COVID-19 cases (including 51 imported cases and 106 secondary cases) and 30 asymptomatic infections were reported in Ningbo City. The proportion of asymptomatic infections had an increasing trend. The proportion of elder people in the asymptomatic infections was lower than younger people, and the difference was statistically significant (Fisher's Exact Test, P = 0.034). There were 22 clusters associated with 167 SARS-CoV-2 infections, among which 29 cases were asymptomatic infections, accounting for 17.37%. We found that the secondary attack rate (SAR) of asymptomatic infections was almost the same as that of symptomatic cases, and no statistical significance was observed (χ2 = 0.052, P = 0.819) by Kruskal-Wallis test. The effective reproduction number (Reff) was 1.43, which revealed that the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 was moderate. If the interventions had not been strengthened, the duration of the outbreak would have lasted about 16 months with a simulated attack rate of 44.15%. The total attack rate (TAR) and duration of the outbreak would increase along with the increasing delay of intervention. SARS-CoV-2 had moderate transmissibility in Ningbo City, China. The proportion of asymptomatic infections had an increase trend. Asymptomatic infections had the same transmissibility as symptomatic infections. The integrated interventions were implemented at different stages during the outbreak, which turned out to be exceedingly effective in China.

Incidence dynamics and investigation of key interventions in a dengue outbreak in Ningbo City, China.

BACKGROUND: The reported incidence of dengue fever increased dramatically in recent years in China. This study aimed to investigate and to assess the effectiveness of intervention implemented in a dengue outbreak in Ningbo City, Zhejiang Province, China. METHODS: Data of a dengue outbreak were collected in Ningbo City in China by a field epidemiological survey according to a strict protocol and case definition. Serum specimens of all cases were collected for diagnosis and the virological characteristics were detected by using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and gene sequencing. Vector surveillance was implemented during the outbreak to collect the larva and adult mosquito densities to calculate the Breteau Index (BI) and human biting rate (HBR), respectively. Data of monthly BI and light-trap density in 2018 were built to calculate the seasonality of the vector. A transmission mathematical model was developed to dynamic the incidence of the disease. The parameters of the model were estimated by the data of the outbreak and vector surveillance data in 2018. The effectiveness of the interventions implemented during the outbreak was assessed by the data and the modelling. RESULTS: From 11 August to 8 September, 2018, a dengue outbreak was reported with 27 confirmed cases in a population of 5536-people community (community A) of Ningbo City. Whole E gene sequences were obtained from 24 cases and were confirmed as dengue virus type 1 (DENV-1). The transmission source of the outbreak was origin from community B where a dengue case having the same E gene sequence was onset on 30 July. Aedes albopictus was the only vector species in the area. The value of BI and HBR was 57.5 and 12 per person per hour respectively on 18 August, 2018 and decreased dramatically after interventions. The transmission model fitted well (χ2 = 6.324, P = 0.388) with the reported cases data. With no intervention, the total simulated number of the cases would be 1728 with a total attack rate (TAR) of 31.21% (95%CI: 29.99%- 32.43%). Case isolation and larva control (LC) have almost the same TAR and duration of outbreak (DO) as no intervention. Different levels of reducing HBR (rHBR) had different effectiveness with TARs ranging from 1.05% to 31.21% and DOs ranging from 27 days to 102 days. Adult vector control (AVC) had a very low TAR and DO. "LC+AVC" had a similar TAR and DO as that of AVC. "rHBR100%+LC", "rHBR100%+AVC", "rHBR100%+LC+AVC" and "rHBR100%+LC+AVC+Iso" had the same effectiveness. CONCLUSIONS: Without intervention, DENV-1 could be transmitted rapidly within a short period of time and leads to high attack rate in community in China. AVC or rHBR should be recommended as primary interventions to control rapid transmission of the dengue virus at the early stage of an outbreak.

Epidemiological Features and Forecast Model Analysis for the Morbidity of Influenza in Ningbo, China, 2006-2014.

This study aimed to identify circulating influenza virus strains and vulnerable population groups and investigate the distribution and seasonality of influenza viruses in Ningbo, China. Then, an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model for prediction was established. Influenza surveillance data for 2006-2014 were obtained for cases of influenza-like illness (ILI) (n = 129,528) from the municipal Centers for Disease Control and virus surveillance systems of Ningbo, China. The ARIMA model was proposed to predict the expected morbidity cases from January 2015 to December 2015. Of the 13,294 specimens, influenza virus was detected in 1148 (8.64%) samples, including 951 (82.84%) influenza type A and 197 (17.16%) influenza type B viruses; the influenza virus isolation rate was strongly correlated with the rate of ILI during the overall study period (r = 0.20, p < 0.05). The ARIMA (1, 1, 1) (1, 1, 0)12 model could be used to predict the ILI incidence in Ningbo. The seasonal pattern of influenza activity in Ningbo tended to peak during the rainy season and winter. Given those results, the model we established could effectively predict the trend of influenza-related morbidity, providing a methodological basis for future influenza monitoring and control strategies in the study area.