The Hidden Economic Consequences of Migraine to the UK Government: Burden-of-Disease Analysis Using a Fiscal Framework.

Background: Migraine is a highly prevalent and incapacitating neurological disorder associated with the highest global disability burden in people aged 15 to 49 years. Europe has the fourth-highest prevalence of migraine, after North America, South America, and Central America, and above Asia and Africa. Migraine leads to relatively modest direct healthcare expenditure but has substantial indirect costs due to reduced productivity. Methods: The economic burden of migraine was estimated in comparison with the general population of the United Kingdom (UK) using an analytical fiscal modeling framework applying the government cost perspective. Published measures of migraine's impact on labor participation were applied to rates of economic activity/inactivity of the general population. The model estimates lifetime changes to earnings from employment, direct and indirect taxes paid, and financial support requirements over the life course. Incremental differences between those affected and unaffected by migraine are reported as net fiscal consequences to public accounts. Fiscal costs are reported as the discounted average per capita over a 20-year time horizon and for the entire annual UK cohort with prevalent migraine. Results: People affected by migraine are more likely to be absent from work, unemployed, and disabled, and to retire early. A 44-year-old individual affected by migraine was associated with £19 823 in excess fiscal costs to the UK government, £1379 per year living with the condition, compared with someone not affected by the disease. Annually, migraine was estimated to represent £12.20 billion to the public economy, approximately £130.63 per migraine episode. The model predicted annual productivity losses in the health and social care workforce to be £2.05 billion and total annual productivity losses to be over £5.81 billion. Conclusions: This fiscal analysis monetizes the occupational consequences of migraine to the UK government, both in terms of lost tax revenue and transfer payments. The findings are substantial and useful to characterize disease severity and to inform the body of evidence considered by decision makers appraising the cost-effectiveness of health technologies.

Comparing the Fiscal Consequences of Controlled and Uncontrolled Osteoarthritis Pain Applying a UK Public Economic Perspective.

Background: Individuals experiencing osteoarthritis (OA) pain can pose significant costs for governments due to reduced work activity in these individuals and increasing reliance on public support benefits. In this analysis we capture the broader economic impact of OA pain by applying a government perspective, public economic framework to assess controlled and uncontrolled pain. Methods: We used a Markov model to compare labour market participation in people with uncontrolled OA hip or knee pain compared to a cohort with controlled OA pain. The likelihood of employment, long-term sickness, disability, and early retirement in those with controlled pain used publicly available UK data. The relative effect of uncontrolled OA pain on fiscal outcomes is drawn from peer reviewed publications reporting reduced work activity and reliance on public benefits for people with uncontrolled OA pain. Lost tax revenue was derived using UK tax rates and national insurance contributions applied to annual earnings. Social benefit rules were applied to calculate government financial support to individuals. Health-care costs were calculated based on estimates from an UK observational study. The base case analysis compared the projected lost tax revenue and transfer payments for a 50-year-old cohort with severe OA pain, retiring at age 65. Results: For a 50-year-old individual with moderate uncontrolled OA pain with 15-years remaining work expectancy, the model estimated a £62 383 reduction in employment earnings, a £24 307 reduction in tax contributions and a need for £16 034 in government benefits, compared to a person with controlled OA pain. In people with severe uncontrolled OA pain incremental foregone earnings were estimated to be £126 384, £44 925 were not paid through taxation and £25 829 were received in public benefits, compared to the controlled pain cohort. Health-care costs represented 13% and 12% of all OA-related fiscal cost in the moderate uncontrolled OA pain and severe uncontrolled OA pain comparison, respectively. Conclusions: For governments, maintaining an active workforce is paramount to maintaining economic growth and reducing spending on government programs. The approach described here can be used to augment cost-effectiveness models to inform a range of stakeholders of benefits attributed to controlled OA pain.

Estimating the health benefits of timely diagnosis and treatment of transthyretin amyloid cardiomyopathy.

Aim: Delayed diagnosis of transthyretin amyloid cardiomyopathy (ATTR-CM) represents a missed opportunity for intervention. This study estimates the health benefits of timely diagnosis and treatment with tafamidis. Methods: A disease simulation model was developed to predict health outcomes under scenarios of timely and delayed diagnosis and treatment. Efficacy and quality of life (QoL) profiles were derived from the pivotal tafamidis trial and diagnostic delay durations from the literature. Results: Timely diagnosis and treatment were predicted to extend mean life expectancy by 5.46 and 7.76 years, relative to delayed diagnosis, for wild-type and hereditary ATTR-CM, respectively. Corresponding QALY gains were 4.50 and 6.22. Conclusion: Timely diagnosis and treatment with tafamidis are predicted to significantly improve survival and QoL for ATTR-CM patients.

Impact of Delayed Diagnosis and Misdiagnosis for Patients with Transthyretin Amyloid Cardiomyopathy (ATTR-CM): A Targeted Literature Review.

INTRODUCTION: Transthyretin amyloid cardiomyopathy (ATTR-CM) is a progressive, fatal and under-recognized disease. This targeted literature review assessed the extent and consequences of diagnostic delay and misdiagnosis in ATTR-CM. METHODS: The Embase database was searched together with proceedings of eight cardiology conferences to identify publications or abstracts on ATTR-CM. Outcomes of interest were time from symptom onset to diagnosis, rates of delayed diagnosis and misdiagnosis, and costs, healthcare resource use or clinical outcomes whilst undiagnosed/misdiagnosed. RESULTS: Twenty-three articles were included. Weighted means of reported mean and median diagnostic delays were 6.1 and 3.4 years for wild-type (ATTRwt-CM) and 5.7 and 2.6 years for hereditary (ATTRv-CM). Misdiagnosis occurred in 34-57% of patients when reported. Evaluation and misdiagnosis by multiple healthcare providers before receiving an ATTR-CM diagnosis was common, and there was evidence that patients undergo unnecessary or inappropriate evaluations or treatments while misdiagnosed. Diagnostic "red flags" were reported to be underused. Data on the consequences of delay for patients and health systems were sparse, but given the progressive nature of ATTR-CM, delay is likely to have adverse consequences. CONCLUSION: ATTR-CM patients commonly experience diagnostic delay and misdiagnosis. Efforts are required to provide timely diagnosis so that patients can benefit from earlier access to new disease-modifying therapies.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Fulvestrant 500 mg in Endocrine Therapy-Naïve Postmenopausal Women with Hormone Receptor-Positive Advanced Breast Cancer in the UK.

INTRODUCTION: The selective estrogen receptor degrader fulvestrant is approved for the first-line treatment of postmenopausal patients with hormone receptor-positive (HR+), locally advanced or metastatic breast cancer who have not received prior endocrine therapy. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of fulvestrant versus comparator treatments in endocrine therapy-naïve patients with locally advanced or metastatic breast cancer. METHODS: A three-health-state (progression free, progressed disease, and death) partitioned survival model from the UK National Health Service and Personal Social Services perspective was developed to extrapolate study data for the cumulative probability of progression-free survival and overall survival to a lifetime (30-year) horizon. Relative comparator data were derived from a systematic literature review-informed network meta-analysis. Sensitivity analyses were applied to assess the impact of uncertainty in the parameter input values on the results. RESULTS: Over a lifetime horizon (30 years), the incremental cost (British pounds sterling) per patient associated with fulvestrant treatment was £18,867 versus anastrozole, £23,097 versus letrozole, and £17,131 versus tamoxifen, with incremental quality-adjusted life-years of 0.55, 0.77, and 0.76, respectively, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of £34,109, £29,827, and £22,532, respectively. The largest difference in costs between fulvestrant and the comparators was related to treatment costs. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest that fulvestrant could potentially be a cost-effective option compared with other endocrine monotherapies (anastrozole, letrozole, and tamoxifen) for treating endocrine therapy-naïve, postmenopausal women with HR+, locally advanced or metastatic breast cancer.

Cost-effectiveness of pembrolizumab versus brentuximab vedotin for patients with relapsed or refractory classical Hodgkin's lymphoma: a United States payer perspective.

AIMS: Patients with classical Hodgkin's lymphoma (cHL) who have relapsed after or are ineligible for autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) have limited treatment options and generally a poor prognosis. Pembrolizumab was recently approved in the US for the treatment of such patients having demonstrated clinical benefit and tolerability in relapsed/refractory cHL; however, the cost-effectiveness of pembrolizumab in this population is currently unknown. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A three-state Markov model (progression-free [PF], progressed disease, and death) was developed to assess the cost-effectiveness of pembrolizumab (200 mg) vs brentuximab vedotin (BV; 1.8 mg/kg) in patients with relapsed/refractory cHL after ASCT who have not received BV post-ASCT over a 20-year time horizon from a US payer perspective. PF survival was modeled using a naïve indirect treatment comparison of data from KEYNOTE-087 and the SG035-003 trial. Post-progression survival was modeled using data from published literature. Costs (drug acquisition and administration, disease management, subsequent treatment, and adverse events) and outcomes were discounted at an annual rate of 3.0%. Uncertainty surrounding cost-effectiveness was assessed via probabilistic, deterministic, and scenario analyses. RESULTS: In the base case, pembrolizumab was predicted to yield an additional 0.574 life-years (LYs) and 0.500 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) vs BV and cost savings of $63,278. Drug acquisition costs were the biggest driver of incremental costs between strategies. Pembrolizumab had a 99.6% probability of being cost-effective compared with BV at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $20,000/QALY and dominated BV in all scenarios tested. LIMITATIONS: The analysis was subject to potential bias due to the use of a naïve indirect treatment comparison and, given the current immaturity of OS in KEYNOTE-087, PPS was assumed equivalent across both treatments. CONCLUSION: Pembrolizumab is a cost-effective alternative to BV for patients with relapsed/refractory cHL after ASCT.

Cost-effectiveness of osimertinib in the UK for advanced EGFR-T790M non-small cell lung cancer.

AIM: This study presents the cost-utility analysis that was developed to inform the NICE health technology assessment of osimertinib vs platinum-based doublet chemotherapy (PDC) in patients with EGFR-T790M mutation-positive non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) who have progressed on epidermal growth factor receptor-tyrosine kinase inhibitor (EGFR-TKI) therapy. METHODS AND MATERIALS: A partitioned survival model with three health states (progression-free, progressed disease, and death) from a UK payer perspective and over lifetime (15 years) was developed. Direct costs included disease management, treatment-related (acquisition, administration, monitoring, adverse events), and T790M testing costs. Efficacy and safety data were taken from clinical trials AURA extension and AURA2 for osimertinib and IMPRESS for PDC. An adjusted indirect treatment comparison was applied to reduce the potential bias in the non-randomized comparison. Parametric functions were utilized to extrapolate survival beyond the observed period. Health state utility values were calculated from EQ-5D data collected in the trials and valued using UK tariffs. Resource use and costs were based on published sources. RESULTS: Osimertinib was associated with a gain of 1.541 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) at an incremental cost of £64,283 vs PDC (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio [ICER]: £41,705/QALY gained). Scenario analyses showed that none of the plausible scenarios produced an ICER above £44,000 per QALY gained, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses demonstrated a 63.4% probability that osimertinib will be cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of £50,000. LIMITATIONS: The analysis is subject to some level of uncertainty inherent to phase 2 single-arm data and the immaturity of the currently available survival data for osimertinib. CONCLUSIONS: Osimertinib may be considered a cost-effective treatment option compared with PDC in the second-line setting in patients with EGFR-T790M mutation-positive NSCLC from a UK payer perspective. Further data from the ongoing AURA clinical trial program will reduce the inherent uncertainty in the analysis.