Spotting intruders: Species distribution models for managing invasive intertidal macroalgae.

Invasive macroalgae represent one of the major threats to marine biodiversity, ecosystem functioning and structure, as well as being important drivers of ecosystem services depletion. Many such species have become well established along the west coast of the Iberian Peninsula. However, the lack of information about the distribution of the invaders and the factors determining their occurrence make bioinvasions a difficult issue to manage. Such information is key to enabling the design and implementation of effective management plans. The present study aimed to map the current probability of presence of six invasive macroalgae: Grateloupia turuturu, Asparagopsis armata, Colpomenia peregrina, Sargassum muticum, Undaria pinnatifida, and Codium fragile ssp. fragile. For this purpose, an extensive field survey was carried out along the coast of the north-western Iberian Peninsula. Species distribution models (SDMs) were then used to map the presence probability of these invasive species throughout the study region on the basis of environmental and anthropogenic predictor variables. The southern Galician rias were identified as the main hotspots of macroalgal invasion, with a high probability of occurrence for most of the species considered. Conversely, the probability of presence on the Portuguese coast was generally low. Physico-chemical variables were the most important factors for predicting the distribution of invasive macroalgae contributing between 57.27 and 85.24% to the ensemble models. However, anthropogenic factors (including size of vessels, number of shipping lines, distance from ports, population density, etc.) considerably improved the estimates of the probability of occurrence for most of the target species. This study is one of the few to include anthropogenic factors in SDMs for invasive macroalgae. The findings suggest that management actions aimed at controlling these species should strengthen control and surveillance at ports, particularly in southern Galician rias. Early detection should be of main concern for risk assessment plans on the Portuguese coast.

Exploring sub-individual variability: role of ontogeny, abiotic environment and seed-dispersing birds.

Within-individual trait variation - otherwise known as sub-individual variation - is an important component of phenotypic variation, with both a genetic and epigenetic basis. We explore its adaptive value and the effects of ontogeny and the environment on sub-individual variability. We conducted a field study to analyse the effects of tree age, soil pH, soil water content and soil nutrients on sub-individual variability in fruit size of hawthorn (Crataegus monogyna) in three sites in northwest Spain. Additionally, we examined how bird-mediated selection influences average and sub-individual variation in fruit size. Results show that average and sub-individual variations in fruit size were related to fitness affecting seed dispersal. Older trees produced larger fruits, but tree age did not affect sub-individual variation in fruit size. Abiotic environmental factors differently affected sub-individual variation and average fruit size. Seed-dispersing birds exerted correlated selection on average and variation in fruit size, favouring trees with larger and less variable fruit size at one site. Our work suggests that the fruit size variation within individual trees, the sub-individual variation, is modified by abiotic environmental factors and, additionally, is an adaptive trait that responds to natural selection.

Seed predators exert selection on the subindividual variation of seed size.

Subindividual variation among repeated organs in plants constitutes an overlooked level of variation in phenotypic selection studies, despite being a major component of phenotypic variation. Animals that interact with plants could be selective agents on subindividual variation. This study examines selective pressures exerted during post-dispersal seed predation and germination on the subindividual variation of seed size in hawthorn (Crataegus monogyna). With a seed offering experiment and a germination test, we estimated phenotypic selection differentials for average and subindividual variation of seed size due to seed predation and germination. Seed size affects germination, growth rate and the probability of an individual seed of escaping predation. Longer seeds showed higher germination rates, but this did not result in significant selection on phenotypes of the maternal trees. On the other hand, seed predators avoided wider seeds, and by doing so exerted phenotypic selection on adult average and subindividual variation of seed size. The detected selection on subindividual variation suggests that the levels of phenotypic variation within individual plants may be, at least partly, the adaptive consequence of animal-mediated selection.