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1.
Acute Med ; 22(2): 58-60, 2023.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37306129

ABSTRACT

Pulmonary embolism (PE) is a common and potentially life-threatening condition encountered routinely in acute care. The diagnosis and management of PE has been the topic of National Institute of Health Care Excellence and European Cardiology Society guidelines. The recommendations within these guidelines have allowed standardisation of care and have facilitated the delivery of protocolised care pathways. Whilst some elements of care are determined by consensus view, there have been large randomised controlled trials and well-designed observational studies which have helped us understand the role of risk factors for PE, short term risk-stratification after initial diagnosis and treatment options in hospital as well as in the months after discharge from Acute Medicine. Few other conditions in acute care are informed by the same levels of evidence, yet there are many unresolved questions.


Subject(s)
Medicine , Pulmonary Embolism , Humans , Pulmonary Embolism/diagnosis , Pulmonary Embolism/therapy , Critical Care , Hospitals , Patient Discharge
2.
Acute Med ; 21(3): 131-138, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36427211

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 has had a dramatic impact on the delivery of acute care globally. Accurate risk stratification is fundamental to the efficient organisation of care. Point-of-care lung ultrasound offers practical advantages over conventional imaging with potential to improve the operational performance of acute care pathways during periods of high demand. The Society for Acute Medicine and the Intensive Care Society undertook a collaborative evaluation of point-of-care imaging in the UK to describe the scope of current practice and explore performance during real-world application. METHODS: A retrospective service evaluation was undertaken of the use of point-of-care lung ultrasound during the initial wave of coronavirus infection in the UK. We report an evaluation of all imaging studies performed outside the intensive care unit. An ordinal scale was used to measure the severity of loss of lung aeration. The relationship between lung ultrasound, polymerase chain reaction for SARS-CoV-2 and 30-day outcomes were described using logistic regression models. RESULTS: Data were collected from 7 hospitals between February and September 2020. In total, 297 ultrasound examinations from 295 patients were recorded. Nasopharyngeal swab samples were positive in 145 patients (49.2% 95%CI 43.5-54.8). A multivariate model combining three ultrasound variables showed reasonable discrimination in relation to the polymerase chain reaction reference (AUC 0.77 95%CI 0.71-0.82). The composite outcome of death or intensive care admission at 30 days occurred in 83 (28.1%, 95%CI 23.3-33.5). Lung ultrasound was able to discriminate the composite outcome with a reasonable level of accuracy (AUC 0.76 95%CI 0.69-0.83) in univariate analysis. The relationship remained statistically significant in a multivariate model controlled for age, sex and the time interval from admission to scan Conclusion: Point-of-care lung ultrasound is able to discriminate patients at increased risk of deterioration allowing more informed clinical decision making.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Humans , COVID-19/diagnostic imaging , Point-of-Care Systems , Retrospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2 , Lung/diagnostic imaging , United Kingdom/epidemiology
3.
Acute Med ; 21(1): 19-26, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35342906

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: The Society for Acute Medicine Benchmarking Audit 2021 (SAMBA21) took place on 17th June 2021, providing the first assessment of performance against the Society for Acute Medicine's Clinical Quality Indicators (CQIs) within acute medical units since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: All acute hospitals in the UK were invited to participate. Data were collected on unit structure, and for patients admitted to acute medicine services over a 24-hour period, with follow-up at 7 days. RESULTS: 158 units participated in SAMBA21, from 156 hospitals. 8973 patients were included. The number of admissions per unit had increased compared to SAMBA19 (Sign test p<0.005). An early warning score was recorded within 30 minutes of hospital arrival in 77.4% of patients. 87.4% of unplanned admissions were seen by a tier 1 clinician within 4 hours of arrival. Overall, the medical team performed the initial clinician assessment for 36.4% of unplanned medical admissions. More than a third of medical admissions had their initial assessment in Same Day Emergency Care (SDEC) in 25.4% of hospitals. 62.1% of unplanned admissions were seen by two other clinical decision makers prior to consultant review. Of those unplanned admissions requiring consultant review, 67.8% were seen within the target time. More than a third of unplanned admissions were discharged the same day in 41.8% of units. CONCLUSION: Performance against the CQIs for acute medicine was maintained in comparison to previous rounds of SAMBA, despite increased admissions. There remains considerable variation in unit structure and performance within acute medical services.


Subject(s)
Benchmarking , COVID-19 , COVID-19/epidemiology , Hospitalization , Humans , Medical Audit , Pandemics
4.
Acute Med ; 21(1): 27-33, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35342907

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Medical admissions to hospital represent a diverse range of patients, from those managed on ambulatory pathways through Same Day Emergency Care (SDEC) services, to those requiring prolonged inpatient admission. An understanding of current patterns of admission through acute medicine services and patient factors associated with longer hospital admission is needed to guide service planning and improvement. METHODS: Data from the Society for Acute Medicine Benchmarking Audit (SAMBA) 2021 were analysed. Patients admitted to acute medicine services during a 24-hour period on 17th June 2021 were included, with data recording patient demographics, frailty score, acuity and follow-up of outcomes after seven days. RESULTS: 8101 unplanned medical admissions were included, from 156 hospitals. 31.6% were discharged without overnight admission; the median hospital performance was 30.1% (IQR 19.3-39.3%). 22.1% of patients remained in hospital for more than 7 days. Those remaining in hospital for more than 48 hours and for more than seven days were more likely to be aged over 70, to be frail, or to have a NEWS2 of 3 or more on arrival to hospital. CONCLUSION: The proportion of acute medical attendances receiving overnight admission varies between hospitals. Length of stay is impacted by patient factors and illness acuity. Strategies to reduce inpatient service pressures must ensure effective care for older patients and those with frailty.


Subject(s)
Benchmarking , Hospitalization , Aged , Humans , Length of Stay , Medical Audit , Patient Discharge
5.
Acute Med ; 21(1): 53-55, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35342912

ABSTRACT

SARS-CoV-2 virtual wards have successfully developed to monitor and escalate patients to hospital throughout the pandemic. Here we describe the case of an 84 year old man who received his complete care for severe SARS-CoV-2 pneumonitis at home, including the administration of oxygen, dexamethasone and tocilizumab.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 Drug Treatment , Aged, 80 and over , Antibodies, Monoclonal, Humanized , Humans , Male , SARS-CoV-2
6.
BMC Fam Pract ; 22(1): 246, 2021 12 16.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34911451

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Little is known about clinicians' perspectives on the use of point of care (POC) tests in assessment of acute illness during primary care out of hours (OOH) care. During a service improvement project, POC tests (including creatinine, electrolytes, haemoglobin and lactate) were made available to clinicians undertaking OOH home visits, with the clinicians allowed absolute discretion about when and whether they used them. METHOD: To explore clinicians' perspectives on having POC tests available during OOH home visits, we undertook a qualitative study with clinicians working in Oxfordshire OOH home visiting teams. We conducted 19 Semi-structured interviews with clinicians working in OOH, including those who had and had not used the POC tests available to them. To explore evolving perspectives over time, including experience and exposure to POC tests, we offered clinicians the opportunity to be interviewed twice throughout the study period. Our sample included 7 GPs (4 interviewed once, 3 interviewed twice - earlier and later during the study), 6 emergency practitioners (EPs) including advanced nurse practitioners and paramedics, 1 Healthcare Assistant, and 2 ambulatory care physicians. Interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed verbatim and analysed thematically. RESULTS: The clinicians reflected on their decision-making to use (or not use) POC tests, including considering which clinical scenarios were "appropriate" and balancing the resources and time taken to do POC tests against what were perceived as likely benefits. The challenges of using the equipment in patients' homes was a potential barrier, though could become easier with familiarity and experience. Clinicians who had used POC tests described benefits, including planning onward care trajectories, and facilitating communication, both between professionals and with patients and their families. CONCLUSION: Clinicians described a discriminatory approach to using POC tests, considering carefully in which situations they were likely to add value to clinical decision-making.


Subject(s)
After-Hours Care , House Calls , Humans , Point-of-Care Testing , Primary Health Care , Qualitative Research
7.
Acute Med ; 20(3): 182-186, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34679135

ABSTRACT

Same day emergency care (SDEC) is an increasingly important part of urgent care delivery in secondary care. This service evaluation examined the role of the pharmacy service on a busy SDEC unit over a 3 week period. A total of 634 patients were seen on the unit and 513 pharmacy interventions were made. Patients were taking a mean number of 6.7 medicines and the average age was 59.3. The most common medication type pharmacists intervened in were anticoagulants. To meet the demands of SDEC service, the pharmacy team is crucial for maintaining medication safety and ensuring patient flow through hospital pathways.


Subject(s)
Emergency Medical Services , Pharmaceutical Services , Emergency Service, Hospital , Hospitals , Humans , Middle Aged , Pharmacists , Professional Role
8.
Acute Med ; 19(4): 192-200, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33215172

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Point-of-care lung ultrasound (POCUS) has been advocated as a tool to assess the severity of COVID19 and thereby aid risk stratification. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective service evaluation between the 3rd March and the 5th May 2020 to describe and characterise the use of POCUS within an acute care pathway designed specifically for the assessment of suspected or confirmed COVID-19. A novel POCUS severity scale was formulated by assessing pleural and interstitial abnormalities within six anatomical zones (three for each lung). An aggregated score was calculated for each patient and evaluated as a marker of disease severity using standard metrics of discriminatory performance. RESULTS: POCUS was performed in the assessment of 100 patients presenting with suspected COVID-19. POCUS was consistent with COVID-19 infection in 92% (n = 92) of the patients assessed. Severity, as assessed by POCUS, showed good discriminatory performance to predict all-cause inpatient mortality, death or critical care admission, and escalated oxygen requirements (AUC .80, .80, 82). The risk of all-cause mortality in patients with scores in lowest quartile was 2.5% (95%CI 0.12- 12.95) compared with 42.9% (95CI 15.8 - 75.0%) in the highest quartile. POCUS assessed severity correlated with length of stay and duration of supplemental oxygen therapy. CONCLUSION: A simple aggregated score formed by the summating the degree of pleural and interstitial change within six anatomical lung zones showed good discriminatory performance in predicting a range of adverse outcomes in patients with suspected COVID-19.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections/diagnostic imaging , Lung/diagnostic imaging , Pneumonia, Viral/diagnostic imaging , Point-of-Care Systems , Betacoronavirus , COVID-19 , Humans , Pandemics , Retrospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2 , Ultrasonography
9.
Acute Med ; 19(4): 209-219, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33215174

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: The eighth Society for Acute Medicine Benchmarking Audit (SAMBA19) took place on Thursday 27th June 2019. SAMBA gives a broad picture of acute medical care in the UK and allows individual units to compare their performance against their peers. METHOD: All UK hospitals were invited to participate. Unit and patient level were collected. Data were analysed against published Clinical Quality indicators (CQI) and standards. This was the biggest SAMBA to date, with data from 7170 patients across 142 units in 140 hospitals. RESULTS: 84.5% of patients had an Early Warning Score measured within 30 minutes of arrival in hospital (SAMBA18 84.1%), 90.4% of patients were seen by a competent clinical decision maker within four hours of arrival in hospital (SAMBA18 91.4 %) and 68.6% of patients were seen by a consultant within the timeframe standard (SAMBA18 62.7%). Ambulatory Emergency Care is provided in 99.3% of hospitals. 61.8% of patients are initially seen in the Emergency Department (ED). Since SAMBA18 death rates and planned discharge rates, while the use of NEWS2 increased from 2.5% to 59.2% of hospitals. CONCLUSION: SAMBA19 highlighted the evolving complexity of acute medical pathways for patients. The challenge now is to increase sample frequency, assess the impact of SAMBA open a broader debate to define optimal CQIs.


Subject(s)
Benchmarking , Medical Audit , Critical Care , Emergencies , Emergency Service, Hospital , Humans
10.
Acute Med ; 19(4): 220-229, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33215175

ABSTRACT

The Winter Society for Acute Medicine Benchmarking Audit (SAMBA) provides the first comparison of performance within acute medicine against clinical quality indicators during winter, a time of increased pressure and demand on acute services. 105 hospitals participated in Winter SAMBA, collecting data over 24-hours on 30th January 2020. 5626 patients were included. Participating units saw a median of 48 patients (range 13-131). Comparison between Winter SAMBA and SAMBA19 found less patients had an early warning score within 30 minutes during winter (74.3% vs 78.9%) and less were seen by a clinical decision maker within four hours (84.9% vs 87.9%). Unplanned admissions represented a higher proportion of workload (92.5% vs 90.1%). Patients were more likely to have a NEWS2 score of 3 or higher (30.1% vs 25.7%). Performance is poorer in winter, and patients are more unwell, needing prompt treatment. Services should ensure high quality care can be maintained through times of increased pressure, including winter.


Subject(s)
Benchmarking , Medical Audit , Critical Care , Hospitalization , Hospitals , Humans
11.
Acute Med ; 19(2): 64-68, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32840255

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Advances in ultrasound technology have allowed an investigation previously restricted to the radiology department to be used more liberally in clinical decision making. Point-of-Care-Ultrasound (PoCUS) has superior diagnostic performance to traditional clinical examination across a range of pathologies in the hands of a suitably experienced practitioner. The utilisation of PoCUS has the potential to greatly influence the delivery of acute care, but little is known about the current level of resource provision within the acute medical setting. METHODS: To establish the availability of ultrasound equipment and appropriately trained clinicians within Acute Medical Units (AMUs) in the United Kingdom (UK) we asked specific questions with an annual day of care survey, undertaken by the Society for Acute Medicine. We compared data across two years to assess interval changes. RESULTS: 58.1% (75/129) of AMUs had access to dedicated ultrasound equipment in SAMBA'19. This represents a small increase from SAMBA'18. Ultrasound expertise is concentrated across a small number of AMUs. Growth in the number of ultrasound trained clinicians is greatest units with established expertise. CONCLUSION: The equipment to provide PoCUS is not present on all AMUs and appropriately trained clinicians are not distributed evenly across units. This is likely to affect individual AMUs ability to deliver bedside ultrasound to appropriate patients who may benefit. Bridging the gap to ensure all AMUs have the option to use PoCUS will require planning and investment.


Subject(s)
Critical Care , Point-of-Care Systems , Clinical Decision-Making , Humans , Ultrasonography , United Kingdom
12.
Acute Med ; 19(1): 4-14, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32226951

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To ensure clinicians can rely on point-of-care testing results, we assessed agreement between point-of-care tests for creatinine, urea, sodium, potassium, calcium, Hb, INR, CRP and subsequent corresponding laboratory tests. PARTICIPANTS: Community-dwelling adults referred to a community-based acute ambulatory care unit. INTERVENTIONS: The Abbott i-STATTM (Hb, clinical chemistry, INR) and the AfinionTM Analyser (CRP) and corresponding laboratory analyses. OUTCOMES: Agreement (Bland-Altman) and bias (Passing-Bablok regression). RESULTS: Among 462 adults we found an absolute mean difference between point-of-care and central laboratory analyses of 6.4g/L (95%LOA -7.9 to +20.6) for haemoglobin, -0.5mmol/L (95%LOA -4.5 to +3.5) for sodium, 0.2mmol/L (95%LOA -0.6 to +0.9) for potassium, 0.0mmol/L (95%LOA -0.3 to +0.3) for calcium, 9.0 µmol/L (95%LOA -18.5 to +36.4) for creatinine, 0.0mmol/L (95%LOA -2.7 to +2.6) for urea, -0.2 (95%LOA -2.4 to +2.0) for INR, -5.0 mg/L (95%LOA -24.4 to +14.4) for CRP. CONCLUSIONS: There was acceptable agreement and bias for these analytes, except for haemoglobin and creatinine.


Subject(s)
Ambulatory Care , Blood Chemical Analysis/methods , Point-of-Care Testing , Adult , Humans , Reproducibility of Results
13.
Acute Med ; 18(3): 158-164, 2019.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31536053

ABSTRACT

We sought to assess the impact of renal impairment on acute medical admissions and to identify potential contributory factors to admissions involving renal impairment at presentation. In a prospective cohort study, 29.5% of all acute medical emergency admissions had an eGFR <60ml/min/1.73m2 at presentation. Of these, 19.9% had definite chronic kidney disease and 8.4% had definite acute kidney injury. Detailed analysis of a random subset of patients with an eGFR <60ml/min/1.73m2 at presentation demonstrated that the major reasons for admission included falls, dehydration and fluid overload. 46% were on diuretics and 53% were on an ACEI or ARB or both. Gastrointestinal disturbance and recent medication changes were common and diuretic use persisted even with diarrhoea or vomiting.


Subject(s)
Acute Kidney Injury , Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitors , Critical Illness , Acute Kidney Injury/diagnosis , Acute Kidney Injury/epidemiology , Emergency Service, Hospital , Hospitalization , Humans , Incidence , Prospective Studies
14.
Acute Med ; 18(2): 76-87, 2019.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31127796

ABSTRACT

SAMBA18 took place on Thursday 28th June 2018 with follow up data at 7 days. Acute medical teams from 127 Acute Medical Units (AMUs) across the UK collected data relating to operational performance, clinical quality indicators and standards from NHS Improvement. Data was collected from 6114 patients.


Subject(s)
Critical Care , Medical Audit , Data Collection , Humans , United Kingdom
15.
Acute Med ; 18(4): 223-231, 2019.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31912053

ABSTRACT

Fluid resuscitation is a widely-used treatment in acute and emergency medicine, however, the process used to perform a fluid assessment has never been studied. This qualitative study explored how acute physicians describe their approach to assessing for fluid resuscitation. 18 clinicians of varying grades consented to a semi-structured interview. Transcripts were coded and analysed using thematic analysis. Participants described three subtypes of assessment; screening assessment, emergency assessment and formal assessment. Whether a patient was 'sick' was key to determining which assessment they would receive. Marked heterogeneity was noted in the assessment processes, particularly regarding the use of history-taking. Further research is required to determine how the information gathered in these assessments is used to decide when fluid resuscitation is indicated.


Subject(s)
Emergency Medicine , Emergency Service, Hospital , Fluid Therapy , Humans , Qualitative Research
16.
J Antimicrob Chemother ; 74(3): 791-797, 2019 03 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30566597

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Older adults suffer high morbidity and mortality following serious infections, and hospital admissions with these conditions are increasingly common. Antibiotic prescribing in the older adult population, especially in long-term care facilities, has been argued to be inappropriately high. In order to develop the evidence base and provide support to GPs in achieving antimicrobial stewardship in older adults it is important to understand their attitudes and beliefs toward antibiotic prescribing in this population. OBJECTIVES: To understand the attitudes and beliefs held by GPs regarding antibiotic prescribing in older adults. METHODS: Semi-structured qualitative interviews were conducted with 28 GPs working in the UK. Data analysis followed a modified framework approach. RESULTS: GPs described antibiotic prescribing in older adults as differing from prescribing in other age groups in a number of ways, including prescribing broad-spectrum, longer and earlier antibiotics in this population. There were also rationales for situations where antibiotics were prescribed despite there being no clear diagnosis of infection. Trials of antibiotics were used both as diagnostic aids and in an attempt to avoid admission. The risks of antibiotics were understood, but in some cases restrictions on antibiotic use were thought to hamper optimal management of infection in this age group. CONCLUSIONS: Diagnosing serious infections in older adults is challenging and antibiotic prescribing practices reflect this challenge, but also reflect an absence of clear guidance or evidence. Research that can fill the gaps in the evidence base is required in order to support GPs with their critical antimicrobial stewardship role in this population.


Subject(s)
Anti-Bacterial Agents , Antimicrobial Stewardship , Inappropriate Prescribing , Practice Patterns, Physicians' , Primary Health Care , Age Factors , Aged , Anti-Bacterial Agents/administration & dosage , Anti-Bacterial Agents/adverse effects , Anti-Bacterial Agents/therapeutic use , Antimicrobial Stewardship/standards , Antimicrobial Stewardship/statistics & numerical data , Attitude of Health Personnel , Female , Health Care Surveys , Humans , Inappropriate Prescribing/statistics & numerical data , Male , Middle Aged , Primary Health Care/methods , Primary Health Care/standards , Qualitative Research , Risk Factors
17.
Acute Med ; 17(3): 148-153, 2018.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30129948

ABSTRACT

Acute ambulatory care is a critical component of the emergency care pathway with national policy support and a dedicated NHS Improvement network. The evidence base for treating acute medical illness outside hospital is a diverse mix of randomised and observational studies with varying inclusion criteria, prognostic stratification, interventions and healthcare setting which limits synthesis of all available evidence and translation to the UK context. There is little consensus on the level of risk for home-based treatment for acute medical illness. Selection tools for referral to acute ambulatory care have been developed but there is limited evidence for their use. There are still research questions concerning optimal staffing, referral mechanisms, point of care diagnostic portfolio and tools for shared decision making.

18.
Acute Med ; 17(2): 60, 2018.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29882553

ABSTRACT

In the acute care pathway, patients often need to move from home to hospital and for the majority, back again. This movement across care interfaces ensures that assessments and interventions are delivered to reduce risk of harm and enhance recovery. However, information needs to move across interfaces too, which enables the clinician taking over care to understand the problem, what has been done and what remains to be done. This is as important for the journey into hospital as it is for the journey home again and is highlighted in the forthcoming NICE guidance on Emergency and Acute Medical Care.


Subject(s)
Patient Discharge , Patient Handoff , Documentation , Emergency Service, Hospital , Humans , Primary Health Care
19.
Maturitas ; 111: 20-30, 2018 May.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29673829

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: Older adults are at risk of functional decline during emergency hospital admissions. This review aims to understand which exercise-based interventions are effective in improving function for older adults who experience unplanned admissions. METHODS: Database searches identified randomised control trials (RCTs) comparing exercise-based interventions with usual hospital care. The primary outcome was functional status measured by activities of daily living (ADL) scores. Secondary outcomes were length of hospital stay (LOS), mortality and readmissions. Sub-group meta-analyses were conducted on interventions delivered in-hospital only compared with interventions provided both in hospital and after discharge. RESULTS: After reviewing 8365 studies, nine were eligible for inclusion. Seven were included in the meta-analysis. Participants from five countries had a mean age of 79 years (1602 participants). Usual care varied considerably and the interventions showed heterogeneity, with different combinations of strengthening, resistance, high-intensity or mobility exercises. There were limited descriptions of exercise intervention delivery and participant adherence. There is low-quality evidence supporting exercise interventions that have both in-hospital and post-discharge components (3 trials, SMD 0.56 (-0.02, 1.13)). Trials involving only in-hospital interventions were inconclusive for functional gains (5 trials, SMD -0.04 (-0.31, 0.22)). CONCLUSIONS: Exercise-based rehabilitation for older patients after emergency hospitalisation improves functional ability if the intervention starts in hospital and continues after discharge. No conclusions can be made regarding the effective exercise 'dose' or content. IMPLICATIONS: Understanding the components of exercise interventions will improve service planning and delivery. Further studies are needed to understand the effective 'dose' and content of exercise for hospitalised older adults.


Subject(s)
Activities of Daily Living , Exercise , Hospitalization , Rehabilitation/methods , Aged , Emergencies , Humans , Length of Stay , Quality Improvement , Quality of Life , Rehabilitation/standards , Resistance Training
20.
BMC Musculoskelet Disord ; 18(1): 139, 2017 04 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28376761

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Research investigating prognosis in musculoskeletal pain conditions has only been moderately successful in predicting which patients are unlikely to recover. Clinical decision making could potentially be improved by combining information taken at baseline and re-consultation. METHODS: Data from four prospective clinical cohorts of adults presenting to UK and Dutch primary care with low-back or shoulder pain was analysed, assessing long-term disability at 6 or 12 months and including baseline and 4-6 week assessments of pain. Baseline versus short-term assessments of pain, and previously validated multivariable prediction models versus repeat assessment, were compared to assess predictive performance of long-term disability outcome. A hypothetical clinical scenario was explored which made efficient use of both baseline and repeated assessment to identify patients likely to have a poor prognosis and decide on further treatment. RESULTS: Short-term repeat assessment of pain was better than short-term change or baseline score at predicting long-term disability improvement across all cohorts. Short-term repeat assessment of pain was only slightly more predictive of long-term recovery (c-statistics 0.78, 95% CI 0.74 to 0.83 and 0.75, 95% CI 0.69 to 0.82) than a multivariable baseline prognostic model in the two cohorts presenting such a model (c-statistics 0.71, 95% CI 0.67 to 0.76 and 0.72, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.78). Combining optimal prediction at baseline using a multivariable prognostic model with short-term repeat assessment of pain in those with uncertain prognosis in a hypothetical clinical scenario resulted in reduction in the number of patients with an uncertain probability of recovery, thereby reducing the instances where patients may be inappropriately referred or reassured. CONCLUSIONS: Incorporating short-term repeat assessment of pain into prognostic models could potentially optimise the clinical usefulness of prognostic information.


Subject(s)
Low Back Pain/diagnosis , Pain Measurement , Shoulder Pain/diagnosis , Humans , Prognosis
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