The sources of the Kuznets relationship between the COVID-19 mortality rate and economic performance.

This paper discusses the findings of an empirical analysis of the Kuznets, or reverse U-shaped relationship, between the COVID-19 mortality rate and economic performance. In the early stages of economic development, the COVID-19 mortality rate is anticipated to rise with rising economic activity and urbanization. Eventually, the mortality rate decreases at higher economic development levels as people and the government are more capable of investing in disease abatement measures. The quality of political institutions, wealth distribution, urbanization, vaccination rate, and improvements in healthcare systems are hypothesized to affect the COVID-19 mortality rate. Examining this relationship can be effective in understanding the change in the COVID-19 mortality rate at different economic performance stages and in identifying appropriate preventive measures. This study employed the negative binomial regression to model a cross-sectional dataset of 137 countries. Results indicated that the relationship between the per-head gross domestic product (GDP) level and the COVID-19 mortality rate appeared to follow a pattern like the Kuznets curve, implying that changes in institutional quality, healthcare advancements, wealth distribution, urbanization, vaccination rate, and the percentage of the elderly population were significant in explaining the relationship. Improvement of the healthcare system has a notable effect on lowering the COVID-19 mortality rate under more effective government conditions. Additionally, the results suggested that a higher per-head GDP is required to reverse the rising trend of the mortality rate under higher income inequality. Based on these results, preventive measures, and policies to reduce COVID-19 mortalities were recommended in the conclusion section.

The motorcycle deaths to passenger car deaths ratio and economic performance: A panel data analysis.

The existing literature in road safety revealed that the relationship between motorcycle deaths and per-head income follows a Kuznets or reverse U-curve pattern, whereby motorcycle deaths incline at lower income levels but decline once the per-head income has exceeded a threshold level. The same reverse U-curve relationship was also observed between per-head income and other road injury-related variables, including road deaths, road injuries, as well as road deaths to road injuries ratio. Evidence showed that motorcycles and passenger cars are the dominant vehicle modes and contributed significantly to global road deaths. The main objective of this study is to examine the relationship between the motorcycle deaths to passenger car deaths (MDC) ratio and per-head Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Examining the relationship between the MDC ratio and GDP per capita can be effective in understanding the relative change between motorcycle and passenger car deaths at different economic development stages, as well as identifying appropriate preventive measures. We apply a panel linear regression analysis on a panel of 38 countries over the period 1965-2013. Result demonstrated that there is a reverse U-curve relationship between the MDC ratio and the logarithm of GDP per capita. This implies that, at lower levels of GDP per capita, motorcycle deaths were more prevalent than passenger car deaths, whereas as the level of GDP per capita rises, passenger car deaths became relatively prevalent than motorcycle deaths. Moreover, there is a reverse U-shaped relationship between motorcycle ownership to passenger car ownership ratio (MPC) and the MDC ratio, while a U-shaped relationship exists between relative growth in higher mobility roads as compared to higher accessibility roads (MPA) and the MDC ratio. Based on our results, policies and interventions to reduce motorcycle and passenger car deaths were suggested in the conclusion of the paper.

The sources of the Kuznets relationship between the road deaths to road injuries ratio and economic growth.

INTRODUCTION: Past empirical studies indicated that there is a Kuznets or reverse U-shaped relationship between road deaths and per capita income, such that the number of road death increases at a low level of per capita reverse U-shaped relationship was observed between road injuries and per capita income. While these studies explored the impact of per capita income on road deaths and road injuries, no studies have examined the relationship between per capita income and road death to road injury ratio (DPI). METHOD: Using a fixed effects panel regression analysis from 67 countries spanning over a period of five decades (1960-2013), the present study sought to explore the impact of per capita gross domestic product (per capita GDP) on the DPI ratio and the underlying factors responsible for the relationship. RESULTS: Our result suggests that per capita GDP followed a reverse U-shaped relationship with DPI. Moreover, the relative improvements in higher mobility roads as compared to improvements in higher accessibility roads, motorcycle ownership to passenger car ownership ratio, percentage of population living in an urban area, infant mortality rate, and the percentage of population below 15 years of age and above 64 years of age contributed to this relationship. Practical Applications: This implies that, at lower level of economic growth where road deaths exceed road injuries, countries should implement low-cost measures to combat road deaths cases. Such measures include mandating wearing of quality helmets and daytime running headlights for motorcycles. On the other hand, at higher level of economic growth where road injuries surpass road deaths, countries are encouraged to devote more resources to improving medical technology and services to treat road injury victims, mandating seatbelt use, as well as enhancing and promoting public transportation service.

An application of the theory of planned behaviour to understand compliance with daytime running headlights law among motorcycle riders.

Fatal motorcycle crashes are a persistent problem in Southeast Asia. In many respects, road safety experts have acknowledged conspicuity issue as one of the main causes of such accidents. To mitigate this deficiency, daytime running headlights (DRHs) law has been documented among the widely exercised countermeasures. The present study aimed to explore socio-psychological factors shaping intentions towards use of DRHs among Malaysian motorcyclists, because compliance level with this rule has remained constant since 1996 (80%). For this purpose, a model was constructed through the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) to evaluate factors affecting motorcyclists' intentions towards compliance with DRHs law. A series of statistical analyses were performed to explain the effect of these factors and to predict degree of compliance with this rule. The model applied on a sample of university students (N = 398) demonstrated that the TPB components could significantly predict motorcycle riders' behaviours and degree of compliance with DRHs law. Moreover, it would be of assistance to policy-makers to recognize groups of motorcyclists more likely to cause an increase in traffic accidents. In general, regular educational campaigns were recommended to raise awareness regarding consequences of not using DRHs and also to nurture factors influencing motorcyclists' attitudes towards DRHs.

Evaluating the effect of lane width and roadside configurations on speed, lateral position and likelihood of comfortable overtaking in exclusive motorcycle lane.

Construction of exclusive motorcycle lanes is one of the measures to reduce motorcycle fatalities. Previous studies highlighted the risk of crashes with roadside objects and the tendency of motorcyclists to ride with excessive speed on exclusive motorcycle lanes. However, the risk of same-direction crashes on exclusive motorcycle lanes was not explored in much detail, especially on the impact of lane geometry and roadside configurations. This study used naturalistic riding data to determine the effects of lane width and roadside configurations on overtaking speed, lateral position and likelihood of comfortable overtaking on tangential sections of an exclusive motorcycle lane. Twenty-nine recruited motorcyclists rode the instrumented motorcycles along a 20km stretch of an exclusive motorcycle lane along a major urban road. Results revealed that both the roadside configurations and lane width significantly affect the participants' lateral position, while the roadside configurations only affects the overtaking speed. Participants' overtaking speeds and the front motorcycles' lateral position contribute significantly to the likelihood of comfortable overtaking in exclusive motorcycle lanes. The findings highlight the importance of micro-level behavior indicators in improving the design and overall safety of the exclusive motorcycle facility.

Role of sensory and cognitive conspicuity in the prevention of collisions between motorcycles and trucks at T-intersections.

Motorcyclists are particularly vulnerable to injury in crashes with heavy vehicles due to substantial differences in vehicle mass, the degree of protection and speed. There is a considerable difference in height between motorcycles and trucks; motorcycles are viewed by truck drivers from downward angles, and shorter distances between them mean steeper downward angles. Hence, we anticipated that the effects of motorcycle conspicuity treatments would be different for truck drivers. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate the effects of motorcycle conspicuity treatments on the identification and detection of motorcycles by truck drivers. Two complementary experiments were performed; the first experiment assessed the impact of motorcycle sensory conspicuity on the ability of un-alerted truck drivers to detect motorcycles, and the second experiment assessed the motorcycle cognitive conspicuity to alerted truck drivers. The sensory conspicuity was measured in terms of motorcycle detection rates by un-alerted truck drivers when they were not anticipating a motorcycle within a realistic driving scene, while the cognitive conspicuity was determined by the time taken by alerted truck drivers to actively search for a motorcycle. In the first experiment, the participants were presented with 10 pictures and were instructed to report the kinds of vehicles that were presented in the pictures. Each picture was shown to the participants for 600ms. In the second experiment, the participants were presented with the same set of pictures and were instructed to respond by clicking the right button on a mouse as soon as they detected a motorcycle in the picture. The results indicate that the motorcycle detection rate increases, and the response time to search for a motorcycle decreases, as the distance between the targeted motorcycle and the viewer decreases. This is true regardless of the type of conspicuity treatment used. The use of daytime running headlights (DRH) was found to increase the detection rate and the identification of a motorcycle by a truck driver at a farther distance, but effect deteriorates as the distance decreases. The results show that the detection rate and the identification of a motorcyclist wearing a black helmet with a reflective sticker increases as the distance between the motorcycle and the truck decreases. We also found that a motorcyclist wearing a white helmet and a white outfit is more identifiable and detectable at both shorter and longer distances. In conclusion, although this study provides evidence that the use of appropriate conspicuity treatments enhances motorcycle conspicuity to truck drivers, we suggest that more attention should be paid to the effect of background environment on motorcycle conspicuity.

Factors related to seatbelt-wearing among rear-seat passengers in Malaysia.

The benefit of wearing a rear seatbelt in reducing the risk of motor vehicle crash-related fatalities and injuries has been well documented in previous studies. Wearing a seatbelt not only reduces the risk of injury to rear-seat passengers, but also reduces the risk of injury to front-seat occupant who could be crushed by unbelted rear-seat passengers in a motor vehicle crash. Despite the benefits of wearing a rear seatbelt, its rate of use in Malaysia is generally low. The objective of this study was to identify factors that are associated with the wearing of a seatbelt among rear-seat passengers in Malaysia. Multinomial logistic regression analysis of the results of a questionnaire survey of 1651 rear-seat passengers revealed that rear-seat passengers who were younger, male, single and less educated and who had a perception of a low level of legislation enforcement, a lower risk-aversion and less driving experience (only for passengers who are also drivers) were less likely to wear a rear seatbelt. There was also a significant positive correlation between driver seatbelt and rear seatbelt-wearing behaviour. This implies that, in regards to seatbelt-wearing behaviour, drivers are more likely to adopt the same seatbelt-wearing behaviour when travelling as rear-seat passengers as they do when driving. These findings are crucial to the development of new interventions to increase the compliance rate of wearing a rear seatbelt.

Factors associated with the enactment of safety belt and motorcycle helmet laws.

It has been shown that road safety laws, such as motorcycle helmet and safety belt laws, have a significant effect in reducing road fatalities. Although an expanding body of literature has documented the effects of these laws on road safety, it remains unclear which factors influence the likelihood that these laws are enacted. This study attempts to identify the factors that influence the decision to enact safety belt and motorcycle helmet laws. Using panel data from 31 countries between 1963 and 2002, our results reveal that increased democracy, education level, per capita income, political stability, and more equitable income distribution within a country are associated with the enactment of road safety laws.

Factors associated with the relationship between motorcycle deaths and economic growth.

This paper examines the Kuznets curve relationship for motorcycle deaths. The Kuznets curve describes the inverted U-shape relationship between economic development and, in this case, motorcycle deaths. In early stages of development we expect deaths to increase with increasing motorization. Eventually deaths decrease as technical, policy and political institutions respond to demands for increased safety. We examine this effect as well as some of the factors which might explain the Kuznets relationship: in particular motorcycle helmet laws, medical care and technology improvements, and variables representing the quality of political institutions. We apply a fixed effects negative binomial regression analysis on a panel of 25 countries covering the period 1970-1999. Our results broadly suggest that implementation of road safety regulation, improvement in the quality of political institutions, and medical care and technology developments have contributed to reduced motorcycle deaths.