ABSTRACT
Background: Prolonged confinement can lead to personal deterioration at various levels. We studied this phenomenon during the nationwide COVID-19 lockdown in a functionally dependent population of the Orcasitas neighborhood of Madrid, Spain, by measuring their ability to perform basic activities of daily living and their mortality rate. Methods: A total of 127 patients were included in the Orcasitas cohort. Of this cohort, 78.7% were female, 21.3% were male, and their mean age was 86 years. All participants had a Barthel index of ≤ 60. Changes from pre- to post-confinement and 3 years afterward were analyzed, and the effect of these changes on survival was assessed (2020-2023). Results: The post-confinement functional assessment showed significant improvement in independence over pre-confinement for both the Barthel score (t = -5.823; p < 0.001) and the classification level (z = -2.988; p < 0.003). This improvement progressively disappeared in the following 3 years, and 40.9% of the patients in this cohort died during this period. These outcomes were associated with the Barthel index (z = -3.646; p < 0.001) and the level of dependence (hazard ratio 2.227; CI 1.514-3.276). Higher mortality was observed among men (HR 1.745; CI 1.045-2.915) and those with severe dependence (HR 2.169; CI 1.469-3.201). Setting the cutoff point of the Barthel index at 40 provided the best detection of the risk of death associated with dependence. Conclusions: Home confinement and the risk of death due to the COVID-19 pandemic awakened a form of resilience in the face of adversity among the population of functionally dependent adults. The Barthel index is a good predictor of medium- and long-term mortality and is a useful method for detecting populations at risk in health planning. A cutoff score of 40 is useful for this purpose. To a certain extent, the non-institutionalized dependent population is an invisible population. Future studies should analyze the causes of the high mortality observed.
