On-site infrasound calibration to correct wave parameter estimation.

The International Monitoring System (IMS) has been established as part of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty to monitor nuclear testing and is comprised of infrasound, hydroacoustic, seismic, and radionuclide stations; it is also used more widely by the scientific community for scientific and civilian applications. For the infrasound stations, on-site calibration provides an accurate measure of the sensor (microbarometer + wind-noise reduction system) frequency response, used to monitor that the sensor response remains within tolerance of the baseline established when the station is certified. However, this on-site calibration can also be used when there are issues/defects with the sensors. As a result, the on-site calibration can be used to correct wave parameter estimations and increase the detection capability of the station. Examples using an experimental sensor at the IMS station IS26 (Germany) and IS47 (South Africa) demonstrate that errors of several degrees and tens of m/s can be introduced, under certain conditions, for the back azimuth and trace velocity, respectively. By using the on-site calibration, these errors are removed, and the correct back azimuth, trace velocity and amplitude are retrieved. This can be especially useful for the identification of infrasound signals, and the localization of their sources.

Using dense seismo-acoustic network to provide timely warning of the 2019 paroxysmal Stromboli eruptions.

Stromboli Volcano is well known for its persistent explosive activity. On July 3rd and August 28th 2019, two paroxysmal explosions occurred, generating an eruptive column that quickly rose up to 5 km above sea level. Both events were detected by advanced local monitoring networks operated by Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) and Laboratorio di Geofisica Sperimentale of the University of Firenze (LGS-UNIFI). Signals were also recorded by the Italian national seismic network at a range of hundreds of kilometres and by infrasonic arrays up to distances of 3700 km. Using state-of-the-art propagation modeling, we identify the various seismic and infrasound phases that are used for precise timing of the eruptions. We highlight the advantage of dense regional seismo-acoustic networks to enhance volcanic signal detection in poorly monitored regions, to provide timely warning of eruptions and reliable source amplitude estimate to Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (VAAC).

Atmospheric wind and temperature profiles inversion using infrasound: An ensemble model context.

This paper presents an inversion methodology where acoustic observations of infrasound waves are used to update an atmospheric model. This paper sought a flexible parameterization that permits to incorporate physical and numerical constraints without the need to reformulate the inversion. On the other hand, the optimization conveys an explicit search over the solution space, making the solver computationally expensive. Nevertheless, through a parallel implementation and the use of tight constraints, this study demonstrates that the methodology is computationally tractable. Constraints to the solution space are derived from the spread (variance) of ERA5 ensemble reanalysis members, which summarize the best current knowledge of the atmosphere from assimilated measurements and physical models. Similarly, the initial model temperature and winds for the inversion are chosen to be the average of these parameters in the ensemble members. The performance of the inversion is demonstrated with the application to infrasound observations from an explosion generated by the destruction of ammunition at Hukkakero, Finland. The acoustic signals are recorded at an array station located at 178 km range, which is within the classical shadow zone distance. The observed returns are assumed to come from stratospheric reflections. Thus, the reflection altitude is also an inverted parameter.

Long range infrasound monitoring of Etna volcano.

Among ground-based volcano monitoring techniques, infrasound is the only one capable of detecting explosive eruptions from distances of thousands of kilometers. We show how infrasound array analysis, using acoustic amplitude and detection persistency, allows automatic, near-real-time identification of eruptions of Etna volcano (Italy), for stations at distances greater than 500 km. A semi-empirical attenuation relation is applied to recover the pressure time history at the source using infrasound recorded at global scale (>500 km). An infrasound parameter (IP), defined as the product between the number of detections, filtered for the expected back-azimuth of Etna volcano, and range corrected amplitude, is compared with the explosive activity at Etna volcano that was associated with aviation color code RED warnings. This shows that, during favourable propagation conditions, global arrays are capable of identifying explosive activity of Etna 87% of the period of analysis without negative false alerts. Events are typically not detected during unfavourable propagation conditions, thus resulting in a time variable efficiency of the system. We suggest that infrasound monitoring on a global scale can provide timely input for Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (VAAC) even when a latency of ~1 hour, due to propagation time, is considered. The results highlight the capability of infrasound for near-real-time volcano monitoring at a regional and global scale.

A 500-kiloton airburst over Chelyabinsk and an enhanced hazard from small impactors.

Most large (over a kilometre in diameter) near-Earth asteroids are now known, but recognition that airbursts (or fireballs resulting from nuclear-weapon-sized detonations of meteoroids in the atmosphere) have the potential to do greater damage than previously thought has shifted an increasing portion of the residual impact risk (the risk of impact from an unknown object) to smaller objects. Above the threshold size of impactor at which the atmosphere absorbs sufficient energy to prevent a ground impact, most of the damage is thought to be caused by the airburst shock wave, but owing to lack of observations this is uncertain. Here we report an analysis of the damage from the airburst of an asteroid about 19 metres (17 to 20 metres) in diameter southeast of Chelyabinsk, Russia, on 15 February 2013, estimated to have an energy equivalent of approximately 500 (±100) kilotons of trinitrotoluene (TNT, where 1 kiloton of TNT = 4.185×10(12) joules). We show that a widely referenced technique of estimating airburst damage does not reproduce the observations, and that the mathematical relations based on the effects of nuclear weapons--almost always used with this technique--overestimate blast damage. This suggests that earlier damage estimates near the threshold impactor size are too high. We performed a global survey of airbursts of a kiloton or more (including Chelyabinsk), and find that the number of impactors with diameters of tens of metres may be an order of magnitude higher than estimates based on other techniques. This suggests a non-equilibrium (if the population were in a long-term collisional steady state the size-frequency distribution would either follow a single power law or there must be a size-dependent bias in other surveys) in the near-Earth asteroid population for objects 10 to 50 metres in diameter, and shifts more of the residual impact risk to these sizes.