Modeling the impact of tuberculosis control strategies in highly endemic overcrowded prisons.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) in prisons is a major health problem in countries of high and intermediate TB endemicity such as Brazil. For operational reasons, TB control strategies in prisons cannot be compared through population based intervention studies. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A mathematical model is proposed to simulate the TB dynamics in prison and evaluate the potential impact on active TB prevalence of several intervention strategies. The TB dynamics with the ongoing program was simulated over a 10 year period in a Rio de Janeiro prison (TB prevalence 4.6 %). Then, a simulation of the DOTS strategy reaching the objective of 70 % of bacteriologically-positive cases detected and 85 % of detected cases cured was performed; this strategy reduced only to 2.8% the average predicted TB prevalence after 5 years. Adding TB detection at entry point to DOTS strategy had no major effect on the predicted active TB prevalence. But, adding further a yearly X-ray mass screening of inmates reduced the predicted active TB prevalence below 1%. Furthermore, according to this model, after applying this strategy during 2 years (three annual screenings), the TB burden would be reduced and the active TB prevalence could be kept at a low level by associating X-ray screening at entry point and DOTS. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We have shown that X-ray mass screenings should be considered to control TB in highly endemic prison. Prisons with different levels of TB prevalence could be examined thanks to this model which provides a rational tool for public health deciders.

Suicide and attempted suicide in France: results of a general practice sentinel network, 1999-2001.

The continuous surveillance of suicide and attempted suicide cases was added to the tasks of the French Sentinel Network of General Practitioners (GPs) in 1999. In 2001, 9700 suicides were estimated to have occurred and an estimated 61 500 attempted suicide cases were diagnosed by GPs, representing approximately 40% of cases nationwide. The majority of suicide and attempted suicide cases involved women (67%) and 43% of all cases involved patients aged 25-44 years. The fatality rate increased with age. About 80% of GPs complied with the current recommendation to refer patients who had attempted suicide to hospital.

A new scale for measuring dynamic patterns of sexual partnership and concurrency: application to three French Caribbean regions.

BACKGROUND: Quantitative assessment of multiple sexual partnerships and concurrency may help to elucidate the large observed differences in the prevalence of AIDS among population subgroups and countries. GOAL: The goals of the study were (1) to develop a global scale of dynamic patterns of sexual partnerships, including concurrency with new partners and stable concurrency; (2) to apply this scale to three Caribbean regions characterized by different cumulative rates of incidence of AIDS; and (3) to compare the concurrency rates given by this scale with those of other published methods. STUDY DESIGN: We defined an individual scale based on 6 patterns of sexual behavior over the previous 12-month period, by using a simple algorithm to combine 7 variables. We then applied this scale to cross-sectional data collected from men living in three French Caribbean regions: Guadeloupe, Martinique, and Guyana. RESULTS: We found that all adults of all age classes in the three regions studied frequently had multiple (>2) and concurrent partnerships. The patterns of sexual behavior in the three regions were consistent with the respective cumulative incidence rates of AIDS, and a lower rate of concurrency with new partners and a higher rate of stable partnership concurrency were noted in Martinique, especially among 45- to 59-year-olds. The rate of concurrent partnerships was found to depend on the criteria used to define them and on the observation period (a given moment, or a defined period). Our definition gave a higher rate of concurrency than previously published indicators. CONCLUSION: The proposed scale can be applied to easy-to-collect data in cross-sectional population surveys and takes into account a wide variety of behaviors, including different types of concurrency.