Smallholder oil palm plantation sustainability assessment using multi-criteria analysis and unmanned aerial vehicles.

Oil palm agriculture has caused extensive land cover and land use changes that have adversely affected tropical landscapes and ecosystems. However, monitoring and assessment of oil palm plantation areas to support sustainable management is costly and labour-intensive. This study used an unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) to map smallholder farms and applied multi-criteria analysis to data generated from orthomosaics, to provide a set of sustainability indicators for the farms. Images were acquired from a UAV, with structure from motion (SfM) photogrammetry then used to produce orthomosaics and digital elevation models of the farm areas. Some of the inherent problems using high spatial resolution imagery for land cover classification were overcome by using texture analysis and geographic object-based image analysis (OBIA). Six spatially explicit environmental metrics were developed using multi-criteria analysis and used to generate sustainability indicator layers from the UAV data. The SfM and OBIA approach provided an accurate, high-resolution (~5 cm) image-based reconstruction of smallholder farm landscapes, with an overall classification accuracy of 89%. The multi-criteria analysis highlighted areas with lower sustainability values, which should be considered targets for adoption of sustainable management practices. The results of this work suggest that UAVs are a cost-effective tool for sustainability assessments of oil palm plantations, but there remains the need to plan surveys and image processing workflows carefully. Future work can build on our proposed approach, including the use of additional and/or alternative indicators developed through consultation with the oil palm industry stakeholders, to support certification schemes such as the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO).

Large-scale reforestation can increase water yield and reduce drought risk for water-insecure regions in the Asia-Pacific.

Large-scale reforestation can potentially bring both benefits and risks to the water cycle, which needs to be better quantified under future climates to inform reforestation decisions. We identified 477 water-insecure basins worldwide accounting for 44.6% (380.2 Mha) of the global reforestation potential. As many of these basins are in the Asia-Pacific, we used regional coupled land-climate modeling for the period 2041-2070 to reveal that reforestation increases evapotranspiration and precipitation for most water-insecure regions over the Asia-Pacific. This resulted in a statistically significant increase in water yield (p < .05) for the Loess Plateau-North China Plain, Yangtze Plain, Southeast China, and Irrawaddy regions. Precipitation feedback was influenced by the degree of initial moisture limitation affecting soil moisture response and thus evapotranspiration, as well as precipitation advection from other reforested regions and moisture transport away from the local region. Reforestation also reduces the probability of extremely dry months in most of the water-insecure regions. However, some regions experience nonsignificant declines in net water yield due to heightened evapotranspiration outstripping increases in precipitation, or declines in soil moisture and advected precipitation.

Modelling regional ecological security pattern and restoration priorities after long-term intensive open-pit coal mining.

Long-term intensive open-pit mining can have huge impacts on ecosystems and the services they provide, affecting the integrity of ecosystem structures, functions and process and thus the "ecological security" of a whole mining region. The indirect and direct impacts of mining are spatially and temporally complex and therefore ecological security patterns need to be considered. However, to date there has been little research focusing on ecological security patterns in mining regions. This study aims to model and map ecological security and restoration priorities in an intensive open-cut coal mining region accounting for spatio-temporal changes of multiple ecosystem services. Four ecosystem services including habitat quality, carbon sequestration, water yield, and sediment retention were assessed and mapped in 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020. Next ecological security patterns and restoration priorities were modelled and characterized using the Self-Organizing Feature Map to identify ecological sources, and circuit theory in Linkage Mapper to characterize connectivity and flows. The results showed that habitat quality, carbon sequestration, and water yield services were most affected by vegetation cover changes due to mining exploitation, while sediment retention was influenced by multiple natural factors, especially topography. Ecological sources, corridors, pinch-points and barriers showed various changing trends due to mined and built-up land expansion over time. Ecological source area declined from 1355.08km2 in 2000 to 584.92 km2 in 2020, while the number of corridors increased from 17 in 2000 to 25 in 2010 and then decreased to 21 in 2020. Although restoration has been conducted on some mine sites, regional-scale restoration needs greater consideration. This study provides decision-makers and stakeholders with a method for assessing regional-scale ecological security and restoration in a holistic and systematic way moving beyond a single mine, which is critical for balancing ecological security protection with minerals production in intensive mining regions.

Habitat fragmentation and logging affect the occurrence of lesser mouse-deer in tropical forest reserves.

Due to rapid urbanization, logging, and agricultural expansion, forest fragmentation is negatively affecting native wildlife populations throughout the tropics. This study examined the effects of landscape and habitat characteristics on the lesser mouse-deer, Tragulus kanchil, populations in Peninsular Malaysia. We conducted camera-trap survey at 315 sampling points located within 8 forest reserves. An assessment of site-level and landscape variables was conducted at each sampling point. Our study provides critical ecological information for managing and conserving understudied populations of T. kanchil. We found that the detection of T. kanchil was attributed to forest fragmentation in which forest patches had four times greater detection of T. kanchil than continuous forest. The detection of T. kanchil was nearly three times higher in peat swamp forest compared to lowland dipterocarp forests. Surprisingly, the detection of T. kanchil was higher in logged forests (logging ceased at least 30 years ago) than unlogged forests. The detection of T. kanchil increased with the presence of trees, particularly those with DBH of 5 cm to 45 cm, canopy cover, number of saplings and palms, number of dead fallen trees, and distance from nearest roads. However, detection decreased with a greater number of trees with DBH greater than 45 cm and higher elevations, and greater detections where creeping bamboo was abundant. We recommend that conservation stakeholders take the necessary steps (e.g., eradicating poaching, habitat degradation, and further deforestation) to support the conservation of mouse-deer species and its natural habitats.

Higher mortality rates for large- and medium-sized mammals on plantation roads compared to highways in Peninsular Malaysia.

The fragmentation of forests by agricultural expansion, urbanization, and road networks is an ongoing global biodiversity crisis. In Southeast Asia and other tropical regions, wildlife populations are being isolated into pockets of natural habitat surrounded by road networks and monoculture plantations. Mortality from wildlife-vehicle collisions (WVCs) is contributing to a decline in many species of conservation priority in human-modified landscapes. This study is the first in Malaysia to investigate factors affecting the occurrence of WVCs. We assessed roadkill data gathered by the Department of Wildlife and National Parks on small-, medium-, and large-sized mammals in Peninsular Malaysia. We examined the relationship between wildlife road accidents and several environmental factors. We found a total of 605 roadkill animals, involving 21 species, which included three species classified as Endangered. Road type (plantation road or highway), year, and distance of the road from continuous and fragmented forests were significant in determining mammal mortality. Unexpectedly, the majority of road mortality occurred on palm oil plantation roads compared to highways. Mortality of small- and medium-sized mammals was greater at locations further from continuous forest than those closer to fragmented forests. Segmentation of continuous forest by roads should be avoided wherever possible to reduce the threat of roads on crossing wildlife.

Horizon Scan of the Belt and Road Initiative.

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) represents the largest infrastructure and development project in human history, and presents risks and opportunities for ecosystems, economies, and communities. Some risks (habitat fragmentation, roadkill) are obvious, however, many of the BRI's largest challenges for development and conservation are not obvious and require extensive consideration to identify. In this first BRI Horizon Scan, we identify 11 frontier issues that may have large environmental and social impacts but are not yet recognised. More generally, the BRI will increase China's participation in international environmental governance. Thus, new cooperative modes of governance are needed to balance geopolitical, societal, and environmental interests. Upgrading and standardising global environmental standards is essential to safeguard ecological systems and human societies.

Predation of potential insect pests in oil palm plantations, rubber tree plantations, and fruit orchards.

In human-modified landscapes, important ecological functions such as predation are negatively affected by anthropogenic activities, including the use of pesticides and habitat degradation. Predation of insect pests is an indicator of healthy ecosystem functioning, which provides important ecosystem services, especially for agricultural systems. In this study, we compare predation attempts from arthropods, mammals, and birds on artificial caterpillars in the understory, between three tropical agricultural land-use types: oil palm plantations, rubber tree plantations, and fruit orchards. We collected a range of local and landscape-scale data including undergrowth vegetation structure; elevation; proximity to forest; and canopy cover in order to understand how environmental variables can affect predation. In all three land-use types, our results showed that arthropods and mammals were important predators of artificial caterpillars and there was little predation by birds. We did not find any effect of the environmental variables on predation. There was an interactive effect between land-use type and predator type. Predation by mammals was considerably higher in fruit orchards and rubber tree than in oil palm plantations, likely due to their ability to support higher abundances of insectivorous mammals. In order to maintain or enhance natural pest control in these common tropical agricultural land-use types, management practices that benefit insectivorous animals should be introduced, such as the reduction of pesticides, improvement of understory vegetation, and local and landscape heterogeneity.

Land use conversion from peat swamp forest to oil palm agriculture greatly modifies microclimate and soil conditions.

Oil palm (Elaeis guineensis) agriculture is rapidly expanding and requires large areas of land in the tropics to meet the global demand for palm oil products. Land cover conversion of peat swamp forest to oil palm (large- and small-scale oil palm production) is likely to have negative impacts on microhabitat conditions. This study assessed the impact of peat swamp forest conversion to oil palm plantation on microclimate conditions and soil characteristics. The measurement of microclimate (air temperature, wind speed, light intensity and relative humidity) and soil characteristics (soil surface temperature, soil pH, soil moisture, and ground cover vegetation temperature) were compared at a peat swamp forest, smallholdings and a large-scale plantation. Results showed that the peat swamp forest was 1.5-2.3 °C cooler with significantly greater relative humidity, lower light intensities and wind speed compared to the smallholdings and large-scale plantations. Soil characteristics were also significantly different between the peat swamp forest and both types of oil palm plantations with lower soil pH, soil and ground cover vegetation surface temperatures and greater soil moisture in the peat swamp forest. These results suggest that peat swamp forests have greater ecosystem benefits compared to oil palm plantations with smallholdings agricultural approach as a promising management practice to improve microhabitat conditions. Our findings also justify the conservation of remaining peat swamp forest as it provides a refuge from harsh microclimatic conditions that characterize large plantations and smallholdings.

Trans-national conservation and infrastructure development in the Heart of Borneo.

The Heart of Borneo initiative has promoted the integration of protected areas and sustainably-managed forests across Malaysia, Indonesia, and Brunei. Recently, however, member states of the Heart of Borneo have begun pursuing ambitious unilateral infrastructure-development schemes to accelerate economic growth, jeopardizing the underlying goal of trans-boundary integrated conservation. Focusing on Sabah, Malaysia, we highlight conflicts between its Pan-Borneo Highway scheme and the regional integration of protected areas, unprotected intact forests, and conservation-priority forests. Road developments in southern Sabah in particular would drastically reduce protected-area integration across the northern Heart of Borneo region. Such developments would separate two major clusters of protected areas that account for one-quarter of all protected areas within the Heart of Borneo complex. Sabah has proposed forest corridors and highway underpasses as means of retaining ecological connectivity in this context. Connectivity modelling identified numerous overlooked areas for connectivity rehabilitation among intact forest patches following planned road development. While such 'linear-conservation planning' might theoretically retain up to 85% of intact-forest connectivity and integrate half of the conservation-priority forests across Sabah, in reality it is very unlikely to achieve meaningful ecological integration. Moreover, such measure would be exceedingly costly if properly implemented-apparently beyond the operating budget of relevant Malaysian authorities. Unless critical road segments are cancelled, planned infrastructure will fragment important conservation landscapes with little recourse for mitigation. This likelihood reinforces earlier calls for the legal recognition of the Heart of Borneo region for conservation planning as well as for enhanced tri-lateral coordination of both conservation and development.

Quantifying rehabilitation risks for surface-strip coal mines using a soil compaction Bayesian network in South Africa and Australia: To demonstrate the R2 AIN Framework.

Environmental information is acquired and assessed during the environmental impact assessment process for surface-strip coal mine approval. However, integrating these data and quantifying rehabilitation risk using a holistic multidisciplinary approach is seldom undertaken. We present a rehabilitation risk assessment integrated network (R2 AIN™) framework that can be applied using Bayesian networks (BNs) to integrate and quantify such rehabilitation risks. Our framework has 7 steps, including key integration of rehabilitation risk sources and the quantification of undesired rehabilitation risk events to the final application of mitigation. We demonstrate the framework using a soil compaction BN case study in the Witbank Coalfield, South Africa and the Bowen Basin, Australia. Our approach allows for a probabilistic assessment of rehabilitation risk associated with multidisciplines to be integrated and quantified. Using this method, a site's rehabilitation risk profile can be determined before mining activities commence and the effects of manipulating management actions during later mine phases to reduce risk can be gauged, to aid decision making. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2019;15:190-208. © 2019 SETAC.

Quantifying suspended solids in small rivers using satellite data.

The management of suspended solids and associated contaminants in rivers requires knowledge of sediment sources. In-situ sampling can only describe the integrated impact of the upstream sources. Empirical models that use surface reflectance from satellite images to estimate total suspended solid (TSS) concentrations can be used to supplement measurements and provide spatially continuous maps. However, there are few examples, especially in narrow, shallow and hydrologically dynamic rivers found in mountainous areas. A case study of the Didipio catchment in Philippines was used to address these issues. Four 5-m resolution RapidEye images, from between the years 2014 and 2016, and near-simultaneous ground measurements of TSS concentrations were used to develop a power law model that approximates the relationship between TSS and reflectance for each of four spectral bands. A second dataset using two 2-m resolution Pleiades-1A and a third using a 6-m resolution SPOT-6 image along with ground-based measurements, were consistent with the model when using the red band data. Using that model, encompassing data from all three datasets, gave an R2 value of 65% and a root mean square error of 519mgL-1. A linear relationship between reflectance and TSS exists from 1mgL-1 to approximately 500mgL-1. In contrast, for TSS measurements between 500mgL-1 and 3580mgL-1 reflectance increases at a generally lower and more variable rate. The results were not sensitive to changing the pixel location within the vicinity of the ground sampling location. The model was used to generate a continuous map of TSS concentration within the catchment. Further ground-based measurements including TSS concentrations that are higher than 3580mgL-1 would allow the model to be developed and applied more confidently over the full relevant range of TSS.

Urban forest fragmentation impoverishes native mammalian biodiversity in the tropics.

Urban expansion has caused major deforestation and forest fragmentation in the tropics. The impacts of habitat fragmentation on biodiversity are understudied in urban forest patches, especially in the tropics and little is known on the conservation value of the patches for maintaining mammalian biodiversity. In this study, camera trapping was used to determine the species composition and species richness of medium- and large-sized mammals in three urban forest patches and a contiguous forest in Peninsular Malaysia. We identified the key vegetation attributes that predicted mammal species richness and occurrence of herbivores and omnivores in urban forest patches. A total number of 19 mammal species from 120 sampling points were recorded. Contiguous forest had the highest number of species compared to the urban forest patches. Sunda Pangolin and Asian Tapir were the only conservation priority species recorded in the urban forest patches and contiguous forest, respectively. Top predators such as Malayan Tiger and Melanistic Leopard were completely absent from the forest patches as well as the contiguous forest. This was reflected by the abundance of wild boars. We found that mammal species richness increased with the number of trees with DBH less than 5 cm, trees with DBH more than 50 cm, and dead standing trees. In the future, the remaining mammal species in the urban forest patches are expected to be locally extinct as connecting the urban forest patches may be infeasible due to land scarcity. Hence, to maintain the ecological integrity of urban forest patches, we recommend that stakeholders take intervention measures such as reintroduction of selected species and restocking of wild populations in the urban forest patches to regenerate the forest ecosystems.

A tool for simulating and communicating uncertainty when modelling species distributions under future climates.

Tools for exploring and communicating the impact of uncertainty on spatial prediction are urgently needed, particularly when projecting species distributions to future conditions.We provide a tool for simulating uncertainty, focusing on uncertainty due to data quality. We illustrate the use of the tool using a Tasmanian endemic species as a case study. Our simulations provide probabilistic, spatially explicit illustrations of the impact of uncertainty on model projections. We also illustrate differences in model projections using six different global climate models and two contrasting emissions scenarios.Our case study results illustrate how different sources of uncertainty have different impacts on model output and how the geographic distribution of uncertainty can vary.Synthesis and applications: We provide a conceptual framework for understanding sources of uncertainty based on a review of potential sources of uncertainty in species distribution modelling; a tool for simulating uncertainty in species distribution models; and protocols for dealing with uncertainty due to climate models and emissions scenarios. Our tool provides a step forward in understanding and communicating the impacts of uncertainty on species distribution models under future climates which will be particularly helpful for informing discussions between researchers, policy makers, and conservation practitioners.

The sensitivity of population viability analysis to uncertainty about habitat requirements: implications for the management of the endangered southern brown bandicoot.

Whenever population viability analysis (PVA) models are built to help guide decisions about the management of rare and threatened species, an important component of model building is the specification of a habitat model describing how a species is related to landscape or bioclimatic variables. Model-selection uncertainty may arise because there is often a great deal of ambiguity about which habitat model structure best approximates the true underlying biological processes. The standard approach to incorporate habitat models into PVA is to assume the best habitat model is correct, ignoring habitat-model uncertainty and alternative model structures that may lead to quantitatively different conclusions and management recommendations. Here we provide the first detailed examination of the influence of habitat-model uncertainty on the ranking of management scenarios from a PVA model. We evaluated and ranked 6 management scenarios for the endangered southern brown bandicoot (Isoodon obesulus) with PVA models, each derived from plausible competing habitat models developed with logistic regression. The ranking of management scenarios was sensitive to the choice of the habitat model used in PVA predictions. Our results demonstrate the need to incorporate methods into PVA that better account for model uncertainty and highlight the sensitivity of PVA to decisions made during model building. We recommend that researchers search for and consider a range of habitat models when undertaking model-based decision making and suggest that routine sensitivity analyses should be expanded to include an analysis of the impact of habitat-model uncertainty and assumptions.