Variable-stiffness prosthesis improves biomechanics of walking across speeds compared to a passive device.

Ankle push-off power plays an important role in healthy walking, contributing to center-of-mass acceleration, swing leg dynamics, and accounting for 45% of total leg power. The majority of existing passive energy storage and return prostheses for people with below-knee (transtibial) amputation are stiffer than the biological ankle, particularly at slower walking speeds. Additionally, passive devices provide insufficient levels of energy return and push-off power, negatively impacting biomechanics of gait. Here, we present a clinical study evaluating the kinematics and kinetics of walking with a microprocessor-controlled, variable-stiffness ankle-foot prosthesis (945 g) compared to a standard low-mass passive prosthesis (Ottobock Taleo, 463 g) with 7 study participants having unilateral transtibial amputation. By modulating prosthesis stiffness under computer control across walking speeds, we demonstrate that there exists a stiffness that increases prosthetic-side energy return, peak power, and center-of-mass push-off work, and decreases contralateral limb peak ground reaction force compared to the standard passive prosthesis across all evaluated walking speeds. We demonstrate a significant increase in center-of-mass push-off work of 26.1%, 26.2%, 29.6% and 29.9% at 0.75 m/s, 1.0 m/s, 1.25 m/s, and 1.5 m/s, respectively, and a significant decrease in contralateral limb ground reaction force of 3.1%, 3.9%, and 3.2% at 1.0 m/s, 1.25 m/s, and 1.5 m/s, respectively. This study demonstrates the potential for a quasi-passive microprocessor-controlled variable-stiffness prosthesis to increase push-off power and energy return during gait at a range of walking speeds compared to a passive device of a fixed stiffness.

Mental Health Admissions to Paediatric Wards Study (MAPS): a protocol for the analysis of Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data.

INTRODUCTION: Children and young people (CYP) presenting with a mental health (MH) crisis are frequently admitted to general acute paediatric wards as a place of safety. Prior to the pandemic, a survey in England showed that CYP occupied 6% of general paediatric inpatient beds due to an MH crisis, and there have been longstanding concerns about the quality of care to support these patients in this setting. Mental Health Admissions to Paediatric Wards Study aims to generate a theory of change (ToC) model to improve the quality of care for CYP admitted to acute paediatric services after presenting in a MH crisis. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will undertake a national (England), sequential, mixed methods study to inform a ToC framework alongside a stakeholder group consisting of patients, families/carers and healthcare professionals (HCPs). Our study consists of four work packages (WP) undertaken over 30 months. WP1 is limited to using national routine administrative data to identify and characterise trends in MH admissions in acute paediatric wards in England between 2015- 2022. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: WP1 received ethical approval (Ref 23/NW/0192). We will publish the overall synthesis of data and the final ToC to improve care of CYP with MH crisis admitted to general acute paediatric settings. As coproducers of the ToC, we will work with our stakeholder group to ensure wide dissemination of findings. Potential impacts will be on service development, new models of care, training and workforce planning.

Mental Health Admissions to Paediatric Wards Study (MAPS): protocol of a prospective study of mental health admissions to paediatric wards in England using surveillance and qualitative methods.

INTRODUCTION: Children and young people (CYP) presenting with a mental health (MH) crisis are frequently admitted to general acute paediatric wards as a place of safety. Prior to the pandemic, a survey in England showed that CYP occupied 6% of general paediatric inpatient beds due to an MH crisis, and there have been longstanding concerns about the quality of care to support these patients in this setting. MAPS aims to generate a Theory of Change (ToC) model to improve the quality of care for CYP admitted to acute paediatric services after presenting with an MH crisis. Here, we describe work packages (WPs) 2 and 3 of the study, which have been granted ethics approval. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will undertake a national (England), sequential, mixed-methods study to inform a ToC framework alongside a stakeholder group consisting of patients, families/carers and healthcare professionals (HCPs). Our study consists of four WPs undertaken over 30 months. WP2 is limited to working with stakeholders to develop a data collection instrument and then use this in a prospective study of MH admissions over 6 months in 15 purposively recruited acute paediatric wards across England. WP3 consists of gathering the views of CYP, their families/carers and HCPs during admissions using semistructured interviews. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: WP2 and WP3 received ethical approval (ref: 23/LO/0349). We will publish the overall synthesis of data and the final ToC to improve care of CYP with MH crisis admitted to general acute paediatric settings. As co-producers of the ToC, we will work with our stakeholder group to ensure wide dissemination of findings. Potential impacts will be upon service development, new models of care, training and workforce planning. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42022350655.

Social connection and mortality in UK Biobank: a prospective cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: Components of social connection are associated with mortality, but research examining their independent and combined effects in the same dataset is lacking. This study aimed to examine the independent and combined associations between functional and structural components of social connection and mortality. METHODS: Analysis of 458,146 participants with full data from the UK Biobank cohort linked to mortality registers. Social connection was assessed using two functional (frequency of ability to confide in someone close and often feeling lonely) and three structural (frequency of friends/family visits, weekly group activities, and living alone) component measures. Cox proportional hazard models were used to examine the associations with all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. RESULTS: Over a median of 12.6 years (IQR 11.9-13.3) follow-up, 33,135 (7.2%) participants died, including 5112 (1.1%) CVD deaths. All social connection measures were independently associated with both outcomes. Friends/family visit frequencies < monthly were associated with a higher risk of mortality indicating a threshold effect. There were interactions between living alone and friends/family visits and between living alone and weekly group activity. For example, compared with daily friends/family visits-not living alone, there was higher all-cause mortality for daily visits-living alone (HR 1.19 [95% CI 1.12-1.26]), for never having visits-not living alone (1.33 [1.22-1.46]), and for never having visits-living alone (1.77 [1.61-1.95]). Never having friends/family visits whilst living alone potentially counteracted benefits from other components as mortality risks were highest for those reporting both never having visits and living alone regardless of weekly group activity or functional components. When all measures were combined into overall functional and structural components, there was an interaction between components: compared with participants defined as not isolated by both components, those considered isolated by both components had higher CVD mortality (HR 1.63 [1.51-1.76]) than each component alone (functional isolation 1.17 [1.06-1.29]; structural isolation 1.27 [1.18-1.36]). CONCLUSIONS: This work suggests (1) a potential threshold effect for friends/family visits, (2) that those who live alone with additional concurrent markers of structural isolation may represent a high-risk population, (3) that beneficial associations for some types of social connection might not be felt when other types of social connection are absent, and (4) considering both functional and structural components of social connection may help to identify the most isolated in society.

Health impact assessment for air pollution in the presence of regional variation in effect sizes: The implications of using different meta-analytic approaches.

The estimated health effects of air pollution vary between studies, and this variation is caused by factors associated with the study location, hereafter termed regional heterogeneity. This heterogeneity raises a methodological question as to which studies should be used to estimate risks in a specific region in a health impact assessment. Should one use all studies across the world, or only those in the region of interest? The current study provides novel insight into this question in two ways. Firstly, it presents an up-to-date analysis examining the magnitude of continent-level regional heterogeneity in the short-term health effects of air pollution, using a database of studies collected by Orellano et al. (2020). Secondly, it provides in-depth simulation analyses examining whether existing meta-analyses are likely to be underpowered to identify statistically significant regional heterogeneity, as well as evaluating which meta-analytic technique is best for estimating region-specific estimates. The techniques considered include global and continent-specific (sub-group) random effects meta-analysis and meta-regression, with omnibus statistical tests used to quantify regional heterogeneity. We find statistically significant regional heterogeneity for 4 of the 8 pollutant-outcome pairs considered, comprising NO2, O3 and PM2.5 with all-cause mortality, and PM2.5 with cardiovascular mortality. From the simulation analysis statistically significant regional heterogeneity is more likely to be identified as the number of studies increases (between 3 and 30 in each region were considered), between region heterogeneity increases and within region heterogeneity decreases. Finally, while a sub-group analysis using Cochran's Q test has a higher median power (0.71) than a test based on the moderators' coefficients from meta-regression (0.59) to identify regional heterogeneity, it also has an inflated type-1 error leading to more false positives (median errors of 0.15 compared to 0.09).

National lockdowns in England: The same restrictions for all, but do the impacts on COVID-19 mortality risks vary geographically?

Quantifying the impact of lockdowns on COVID-19 mortality risks is an important priority in the public health fight against the virus, but almost all of the existing research has only conducted macro country-wide assessments or limited multi-country comparisons. In contrast, the extent of within-country variation in the impacts of a nation-wide lockdown is yet to be thoroughly investigated, which is the gap in the knowledge base that this paper fills. Our study focuses on England, which was subject to 3 national lockdowns between March 2020 and March 2021. We model weekly COVID-19 mortality counts for the 312 Local Authority Districts in mainland England, and our aim is to understand the impact that lockdowns had at both a national and a regional level. Specifically, we aim to quantify how long after the implementation of a lockdown do mortality risks reduce at a national level, the extent to which these impacts vary regionally within a country, and which parts of England exhibit similar impacts. As the spatially aggregated weekly COVID-19 mortality counts are small in size we estimate the spatio-temporal trends in mortality risks with a Poisson log-linear smoothing model that borrows strength in the estimation between neighbouring data points. Inference is based in a Bayesian paradigm, using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. Our main findings are that mortality risks typically begin to reduce between 3 and 4 weeks after lockdown, and that there appears to be an urban-rural divide in lockdown impacts.

Delivering spatially comparable inference on the risks of multiple severities of respiratory disease from spatially misaligned disease count data.

Population-level disease risk varies between communities, and public health professionals are interested in mapping this spatial variation to monitor the locations of high-risk areas and the magnitudes of health inequalities. Almost all of these risk maps relate to a single severity of disease outcome, such as hospitalization, which thus ignores any cases of disease of a different severity, such as a mild case treated in a primary care setting. These spatially-varying risk maps are estimated from spatially aggregated disease count data, but the set of areal units to which these disease counts relate often varies by severity. Thus, the statistical challenge is to provide spatially comparable inference from multiple sets of spatially misaligned disease count data, and an additional complexity is that the spatial extents of the areal units for some severities are partially unknown. This paper thus proposes a novel spatial realignment approach for multivariate misaligned count data, and applies it to the first study delivering spatially comparable inference for multiple severities of the same disease. Inference is via a novel spatially smoothed data augmented MCMC algorithm, and the methods are motivated by a new study of respiratory disease risk in Scotland in 2017.

Quantifying the impact of air pollution on Covid-19 hospitalisation and death rates in Scotland.

Better understanding the risk factors that exacerbate Covid-19 symptoms and lead to worse health outcomes is vitally important in the public health fight against the virus. One such risk factor that is currently under investigation is air pollution concentrations, with some studies finding statistically significant effects while other studies have found no consistent associations. The aim of this paper is to add to this global evidence base on the potential association between air pollution concentrations and Covid-19 hospitalisations and deaths, by presenting the first study on this topic at the small-area scale in Scotland, United Kingdom. Our study is one of the most comprehensive to date in terms of its temporal coverage, as it includes all hospitalisations and deaths in Scotland between 1st March 2020 and 31st July 2021. We quantify the effects of air pollution on Covid-19 outcomes using a small-area spatial ecological study design, with inference using Bayesian hierarchical models that allow for the residual spatial correlation present in the data. A key advantage of our study is its extensive sensitivity analyses, which examines the robustness of the results to our modelling assumptions. We find clear evidence that PM2.5 concentrations are associated with hospital admissions, with a 1 µgm-3 increase in concentrations being associated with between a 7.4% and a 9.3% increase in hospitalisations. In addition, we find some evidence that PM2.5 concentrations are associated with deaths, with a 1 µgm-3 increase in concentrations being associated with between a 2.9% and a 10.3% increase in deaths.

Day-to-day intrapersonal variability in mobility patterns and association with perceived stress: A cross-sectional study using GPS from 122 individuals in three European cities.

Many aspects of our life are related to our mobility patterns and individuals can exhibit strong tendencies towards routine in their daily lives. Intrapersonal day-to-day variability in mobility patterns has been associated with mental health outcomes. The study aims were: (a) calculate intrapersonal day-to-day variability in mobility metrics for three cities; (b) explore interpersonal variability in mobility metrics by sex, season and city, and (c) describe intrapersonal variability in mobility and their association with perceived stress. Data came from the Physical Activity through Sustainable Transport Approaches (PASTA) project, 122 eligible adults wore location measurement devices over 7-consecutive days, on three occasions during 2015 (Antwerp: 41, Barcelona: 41, London: 40). Participants completed the Short Form Perceived Stress Scale (PSS-4). Day-to-day variability in mobility was explored via six mobility metrics using distance of GPS point from home (meters:m), distance travelled between consecutive GPS points (m) and energy expenditure (metabolic equivalents:METs) of each GPS point collected (n = 3,372,919). A Kruskal-Wallis H test determined whether the median daily mobility metrics differed by city, sex and season. Variance in correlation quantified day-to-day intrapersonal variability in mobility. Levene's tests or Kruskal-Wallis tests were applied to assess intrapersonal variability in mobility and perceived stress. There were differences in daily distance travelled, maximum distance from home and METS between individuals by sex, season and, for proportion of time at home also, by city. Intrapersonal variability across all mobility metrics were highly correlated; individuals had daily routines and largely stuck to them. We did not observe any association between stress and mobility. Individuals are habitual in their daily mobility patterns. This is useful for estimating environmental exposures and in fuelling simulation studies.

Spatio-temporal disease risk estimation using clustering-based adjacency modelling.

Conditional autoregressive models are typically used to capture the spatial autocorrelation present in areal unit disease count data when estimating the spatial pattern in disease risk. This correlation is represented by a binary neighbourhood matrix based on a border sharing specification, which enforces spatial correlation between geographically neighbouring areas. However, enforcing such correlation will mask any discontinuities in the disease risk surface, thus impeding the detection of clusters of areas that exhibit higher or lower risks compared to their neighbours. Here we propose novel methodology to account for these clusters and discontinuities in disease risk via a two-stage modelling approach, which either forces the clusters/discontinuities to be the same for all time periods or allows them to evolve dynamically over time. Stage one constructs a set of candidate neighbourhood matrices to represent a range of possible cluster/discontinuity structures in the data, and stage two estimates an appropriate structure(s) by treating the neighbourhood matrix as an additional parameter to estimate within a Bayesian spatio-temporal disease mapping model. The effectiveness of our novel methodology is evidenced by simulation, before being applied to a new study of respiratory disease risk in Greater Glasgow, Scotland from 2011 to 2017.

Quantifying the small-area spatio-temporal dynamics of the Covid-19 pandemic in Scotland during a period with limited testing capacity.

Modelling the small-area spatio-temporal dynamics of the Covid-19 pandemic is of major public health importance, because it allows health agencies to better understand how and why the virus spreads. However, in Scotland during the first wave of the pandemic testing capacity was severely limited, meaning that large numbers of infected people were not formally diagnosed as having the virus. As a result, data on confirmed cases are unlikely to represent the true infection rates, and due to the small numbers of positive tests these data are not available at the small-area level for confidentiality reasons. Therefore to estimate the small-area dynamics in Covid-19 incidence this paper analyses the spatio-temporal trends in telehealth data relating to Covid-19, because during the first wave of the pandemic the public were advised to call the national telehealth provider NHS 24 if they experienced symptoms of the virus. Specifically, we propose a multivariate spatio-temporal correlation model for modelling the proportions of calls classified as either relating to Covid-19 directly or having related symptoms, and provide software for fitting the model in a Bayesian setting using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. The model was developed in partnership with the national health agency Public Health Scotland, and here we use it to analyse the spatio-temporal dynamics of the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic in Scotland between March and July 2020, specifically focusing on the spatial variation in the peak and the end of the first wave.

Working together better for mental health in children and young people during a pandemic: experiences from North Central London during the first wave of COVID-19.

Direct risk from infection from COVID-19 for children and young people (CYP) is low, but impact on services, education and mental health (so-called collateral damage) appears to have been more significant. In North Central London (NCL) during the first wave of the pandemic, in response to the needs and demands for adults with COVID-19, general paediatric wards in acute hospitals and some paediatric emergency departments were closed. Paediatric mental health services in NCL mental health services were reconfigured. Here we describe process and lessons learnt from a collaboration between physical and mental health services to provide care for CYP presenting in mental health crisis. Two new 'hubs' were created to coordinate crisis presentations in the region and to link community mental health teams with emergency departments. All CYP requiring a paediatric admission in the first wave were diverted to Great Ormond Street Hospital, a specialist children's hospital in NCL, and a new ward for CYP mental health crisis admissions was created. This brought together a multidisciplinary team of mental health and physical health professionals. The most common reason for admission to the ward was following a suicide attempt (n=17, 43%). Patients were of higher acute mental health complexity than usually admitted to the hospital, with some CYP needing an extended period of assessment. In this review, we describe the challenges and key lessons learnt for the development of this new ward setting that involved such factors as leadership, training and also new governance processes. We also report some personal perspectives from the professionals involved. Our review provides perspective and experience that can inform how CYP with mental health admissions can be managed in paediatric medical settings.

Prevalence of traumatic psychological stress reactions in children and parents following paediatric surgery: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: Children undergoing surgery and their parents are at risk of developing post-traumatic stress reactions. We systematically reviewed the literature to understand the prevalence of this issue, as well as potential risk factors. Methods: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis, using PubMed, PsycInfo, Web of Science and Google Scholar, with searches conducted in February 2021. Papers were included if they measured post-traumatic stress in children and/or parents following paediatric surgery and were excluded if they did not use a validated measure of post-traumatic stress. Data were extracted from published reports. Findings: Our search yielded a total of 1672 papers, of which 16 met our inclusion criteria. In meta-analysis, pooled studies of children estimated an overall prevalence of 16% meeting criteria for post-traumatic stress disorder post surgery (N=187, 95% CI 5% to 31%, I2=80%). After pooling studies of parents, overall prevalence was estimated at 23% (N=1444, 95% CI 16% to 31%, I2=91%). Prevalence rates were higher than those reported in the general population. Risk factors reported within studies included length of stay, level of social support and parental mental health. Interpretation: There is consistent evidence of traumatic stress following surgery in childhood which warrants further investigation. Those delivering surgical care to children would benefit from a raised awareness of the potential for post-traumatic stress in their patients and their families, including offering screening and support.

Dealing with risk discontinuities to estimate cancer mortality risks when the number of small areas is large.

Many statistical models have been developed during the last years to smooth risks in disease mapping. However, most of these modeling approaches do not take possible local discontinuities into consideration or if they do, they are computationally prohibitive or simply do not work when the number of small areas is large. In this paper, we propose a two-step method to deal with discontinuities and to smooth noisy risks in small areas. In a first stage, a novel density-based clustering algorithm is used. In contrast to previous proposals, this algorithm is able to automatically detect the number of spatial clusters, thus providing a single cluster structure. In the second stage, a Bayesian hierarchical spatial model that takes the cluster configuration into account is fitted, which accounts for the discontinuities in disease risk. To evaluate the performance of this new procedure in comparison to previous proposals, a simulation study has been conducted. Results show competitive risk estimates at a much better computational cost. The new methodology is used to analyze stomach cancer mortality data in Spanish municipalities.

Spatiotemporal distributed lag modelling of multiple Plasmodium species in a malaria elimination setting.

In much of the Greater Mekong Sub-region, malaria is now confined to patches and small foci of transmission. Malaria transmission is seasonal with the spatiotemporal patterns being associated with variation in environmental and climatic factors. However, the possible effect at different lag periods between meteorological variables and clinical malaria has not been well studied in the region. Thus, in this study we developed distributed lagged modelling accounting for spatiotemporal excessive zero cases in a malaria elimination setting. A multivariate framework was also extended to incorporate multiple data streams and investigate the spatiotemporal patterns from multiple parasite species via their lagged association with climatic variables. A simulation study was conducted to examine robustness of the methodology and a case study is provided of weekly data of clinical malaria cases at sub-district level in Thailand.

Association between childhood maltreatment and the prevalence and complexity of multimorbidity: A cross-sectional analysis of 157,357 UK Biobank participants.

BACKGROUND: Child maltreatment is associated with long-term conditions (LTCs) in adulthood. Its relationship to multimorbidity (≥2 LTCs) is less clear. We explore the relationship between child maltreatment, multimorbidity and factors complicating management. METHODS: Cross-sectional analysis of 157,357 UK Biobank participants. Experience of four maltreatment types (physical/sexual/emotional/neglect) was identified. We explored the relationship between type, number and frequency of maltreatment and LTC count (0, 1, 2, 3, ≥4) using multinomial logistic regression. Binary logistic regression assessed the relationship between maltreatment and self-rated health, loneliness, social isolation, frailty and widespread pain in those with multimorbidity, adjusting for sociodemographics and lifestyle factors. RESULTS: 52,675 participants (33%) experienced ≥1 type of maltreatment; 983 (0.6%) experienced all four. Type, frequency and number of types of maltreatment were associated with higher LTC count. People experiencing four types of maltreatment were 5 times as likely to have a LTC count of ≥4 as those experiencing none (odds ratio (OR): 5.16; 99% confidence interval (CI): 3.77-7.07). Greater number of types of maltreatment was associated with higher prevalence of combined physical/mental health LTCs (OR: 2.99; 99% CI: 2.54-3.51 for four types of maltreatment). Compared to people who reported no maltreatment, people experiencing all four types of maltreatment were more likely to have poor self-rated health (OR: 3.56; 99% CI: 2.58-4.90), loneliness (OR: 3.16; 99% CI: 2.17-4.60), social isolation (OR: 1.45; 99% CI: 1.03-2.05), widespread pain (OR: 3.19; 99% CI: 1.87-5.44) and frailty (OR: 3.21; 99% CI: 2.04-5.05). CONCLUSION: Peoplewith a history of maltreatment have higher LTC counts and potentially more complicated management needs reinforcing calls for early intervention.

A tutorial on spatio-temporal disease risk modelling in R using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation and the CARBayesST package.

Population-level disease risk varies in space and time, and is typically estimated using aggregated disease count data relating to a set of non-overlapping areal units for multiple consecutive time periods. A large research base of statistical models and corresponding software has been developed for such data, with most analyses being undertaken in a Bayesian setting using either Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation or integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLA). This paper presents a tutorial for undertaking spatio-temporal disease modelling using MCMC simulation, utilising the CARBayesST package in the R software environment. The tutorial describes the complete modelling journey, starting with data input, wrangling and visualisation, before focusing on model fitting, model assessment and results presentation. It is illustrated by a new case study of pneumonia mortality at the local authority level in England, and answers important public health questions including the effect of covariate risk factors, spatio-temporal trends, and health inequalities.

Assessing Risks of Polypharmacy Involving Medications With Anticholinergic Properties.

PURPOSE: Anticholinergic burden (ACB), the cumulative effect of anticholinergic medications, is associated with adverse outcomes in older people but is less studied in middle-aged populations. Numerous scales exist to quantify ACB. The aims of this study were to quantify ACB in a large cohort using the 10 most common anticholinergic scales, to assess the association of each scale with adverse outcomes, and to assess overlap in populations identified by each scale. METHODS: We performed a longitudinal analysis of the UK Biobank community cohort (502,538 participants, baseline age: 37-73 years, median years of follow-up: 6.2). The ACB was calculated at baseline using 10 scales. Baseline data were linked to national mortality register records and hospital episode statistics. The primary outcome was a composite of all-cause mortality and major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE). Secondary outcomes were all-cause mortality, MACE, hospital admission for fall/fracture, and hospital admission with dementia/delirium. Cox proportional hazards models (hazard ratio [HR], 95% CI) quantified associations between ACB scales and outcomes adjusted for age, sex, socioeconomic status, body mass index, smoking status, alcohol use, physical activity, and morbidity count. RESULTS: Anticholinergic medication use varied from 8% to 17.6% depending on the scale used. For the primary outcome, ACB was significantly associated with all-cause mortality/MACE for each scale. The Anticholinergic Drug Scale was most strongly associated with mortality/MACE (HR = 1.12; 95% CI, 1.11-1.14 per 1-point increase in score). The ACB was significantly associated with all secondary outcomes. The Anticholinergic Effect on Cognition scale was most strongly associated with dementia/delirium (HR = 1.45; 95% CI, 1.3-1.61 per 1-point increase). CONCLUSIONS: The ACB was associated with adverse outcomes in a middle- to older-aged population. Populations identified and effect size differed between scales. Scale choice influenced the population identified as potentially requiring reduction in ACB in clinical practice or intervention trials.

Estimating the changing nature of Scotland's health inequalities by using a multivariate spatiotemporal model.

Health inequalities are the unfair and avoidable differences in people's health between different social groups. These inequalities have a huge influence on people's lives, particularly those who live at the poorer end of the socio-economic spectrum, as they result in prolonged ill health and shorter lives. Most studies estimate health inequalities for a single disease, but this will give an incomplete picture of the overall inequality in population health. Here we propose a novel multivariate spatiotemporal model for quantifying health inequalities in Scotland across multiple diseases, which will enable us to understand better how these inequalities vary across disease and have changed over time. In developing this model we are interested in estimating health inequalities between Scotland's 14 regional health boards, who are responsible for the protection and improvement of their population's health. The methodology is applied to hospital admissions data for cerebrovascular disease, coronary heart disease and respiratory disease, which are three of the leading causes of death, from 2003 to 2012 across Scotland.

Estimating the health impact of air pollution in Scotland, and the resulting benefits of reducing concentrations in city centres.

Air pollution continues to be a key health issue in Scotland, despite recent improvements in concentrations. The Scottish Government published the Cleaner Air For Scotland strategy in 2015, and will introduce Low Emission Zones (LEZs) in the four major cities (Aberdeen, Dundee, Edinburgh and Glasgow) by 2020. However, there is no epidemiological evidence quantifying the current health impact of air pollution in Scotland, which this paper addresses. Additionally, we estimate the health benefits of reducing concentrations in city centres where most LEZs are located. We focus on cardio-respiratory disease and total non-accidental mortality outcomes, linking them to concentrations of both particulate (PM10 and PM2.5) and gaseous (NO2 and NOx) pollutants. Our two main findings are that: (i) all pollutants exhibit significant associations with respiratory disease but not cardiovascular disease; and (ii) reducing concentrations in city centres with low resident populations only provides a small health benefit.