The situation of the elderly in Denmark.

In this paper, basic socio-economic and demographic data about the elderly are presented. Since the younger elderly are more active and have better health than previous generations and since the older elderly comprise the group likely to make most demands on society, the paper concentrates mainly on those aged 75 and over. The demography of the elderly is considered by way of introduction, followed by more specific topics of particular interest for the group in question, such as finance, household composition, institutions and service, health and family structure. In conclusion, the inter-action between the public sector, the private sector, the independent sector (volunteers) and the family (social) network is considered in relation to ensuring acceptable quality of life for elderly persons in Denmark.

Ageing and economic welfare.

"The purpose of the present paper is to seek to elucidate the effects of recent and future population development upon the economic welfare of the Danish population as a whole, but especially of the elderly." It is shown that the proportion of the elderly in the total population has increased from 10 percent in 1900 to 20 percent in 1984 and is likely to increase to 21 percent in 2000 and 30 percent in 2025. The consequent increase in the dependency burden on those of working age is examined. The need for greater economic efficiency, higher fertility, and increased labor force participation by the elderly in order for the country to respond to this challenge is noted. (summary in FRE, ITA)

Some economic consequences of an ageing and declining population in Denmark.

PIP: Figures for 1981 indicate that Denmark has a fertility level of 1.45 which has been below replacement level since 1968. In that same time period, natural increase has decreased from over 27,000 in 1968 to only 1354 in 1980 and a negative natural increase in 1981 with deaths outnumbering births by 3001. Even during the depression in the 1930's, net population increase was between 6-9/1000 with a fertility level which hovered around replacement level. At that time, the number of females in the childbearing ages was enough to provide population growth, whereas the number is much less today. Population increase is only 0.3/1000. The national population projections for Denmark for 1981-2010 assume an increase in the fertility level from 1.45-1.70 by 1991 after which it remains constant. The number of 20-39 year olds increased steadily until 1945 after which there was a decline as the cohorts from periods with low fertility levels entered this age group, but this was again followed by a steady increase to the present day. The number of females aged 0-39 years is expected to decrease in all age groups to the year 2000. Those aged 40-59 increased in numbers from 1920 to the mid 1960s, since then they have decreased in number, but an increase is forcast for the remainder of the century. The number of elderly females also increased steadily from 1930-80, from about 200,000 to over 550,000; this is expected to continue until 1990 when a short-term decline will set in. Regarding the economic and social consequences of these trends, it is shown that the present decline in fertility has its origins in a period of low unemployment and its negative growth while there was still relatively low unemployment and economic growth. In 1973 the unemployed rate was 0.9% of the work force and this rose to 9.2% in 1981. The Danish population has aged from one with 1/4 million people aged 60 and over at the turn of the century to about 1 million of that age today. Also, the aged themselves have aged so that the number of extreme aged (age 80 and over) has increased from 21,500 to 150,000 between 1901-81. In the last 20 years, elderly mortality, especially that of females, has decreased faster and more substantially than previously experienced and has led to absolute increases in the number of elderly that were unforeseen. From 1901-81, the old-age dependency ratio of those aged 60 and over to those aged 20-59 has almost doubled whereas the youth dependency dropped dramatically. From 1970-71 to 1980 old age pension payments in Denmark have risen from 5.3 billion crowns-17.9 billion, a rise of 13.2%. In the next 20 years the working and retired population will be unaffected by future fertility unless female labor force participation rates respond to changes. Mortality and international migration are the 2 demographic components that can have an effect. It therefore remains that investments in the younger generation are investments in the future.^ieng

Demographic ageing in Denmark in the twentieth century.

"In the twentieth century the Danish population has, in demographic terms, aged considerably, the proportion of the population aged 60 years and over having increased from 9.8 to 19.6 per cent. The expected population development for the remainder of this century suggests that this ageing will continue until about 1990, after which the effects of previous fertility experience will reduce the proportions of elderly. Although the proportion of elderly begins to decrease after 1990, the number of persons aged 85+ by the year 2000 is expected to increase substantially."

The elderly in Denmark in 1980: consequences of a mortality decline.

PIP: The modern decline in mortality in Denmark is summarized, and its consequences for the number and age distribution of the elderly population are considered. The data are then compared with a projection of the population in 1960 aged 40 and over assuming that the 1956-1960 mortality level remained unchanged. (summary in FRE)^ieng