Development of a comorbidity index using physician claims data.

Important comorbidities recorded on outpatient claims in administrative datasets may be missed in analyses when only inpatient care is considered. Using the comorbid conditions identified by Charlson and colleagues, we developed a comorbidity index that incorporates the diagnostic and procedure data contained in Medicare physician (Part B) claims. In the national cohorts of elderly prostate (n = 28,868) and breast cancer (n = 14,943) patients assessed in this study, less than 10% of patients had comorbid conditions identified when only Medicare hospital (Part A) claims were examined. By incorporating physician claims, the proportion of patients with comorbid conditions increased to 25%. The new physician claims comorbidity index significantly contributes to models of 2-year noncancer mortality and treatment received in both patient cohorts. We demonstrate the utility of a disease-specific index using an alternative method of construction employing study-specific weights. The physician claims index can be used in conjunction with a comorbidity index derived from inpatient hospital claims, or employed as a stand-alone measure.

Cancer surveillance series [corrected]: brain and other central nervous system cancers: recent trends in incidence and mortality.

BACKGROUND: During the 1980s, the incidence of primary malignant brain and other central nervous system tumors (hereafter called brain cancer) was reported to be increasing among all age groups in the United States, while mortality was declining for persons younger than 65 years. We analyzed these data to provide updates on incidence and mortality trends for brain cancer in the United States and to examine these patterns in search of their causes. METHODS: Data on incidence, overall and according to histology and anatomic site, and on relative survival were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program of the National Cancer Institute for 1975 through 1995. Mortality data were obtained from the National Center for Health Statistics. Medicare procedure claims from the National Cancer Institute's SEER-Medicare database were used for imaging trends. Statistically significant changes in incidence trends were identified, and annual percent changes were computed for log linear models. RESULTS/CONCLUSIONS: Rates stabilized for all age groups during the most recent period for which SEER data were available, except for the group containing individuals 85 years of age or older. Mortality trends continued to decline for the younger age groups, and the steep increases in mortality seen in the past for the elderly slowed substantially. Patterns differed by age group according to the site and grade of tumors between younger and older patients. During the last decade, use of computed tomography scans was relatively stable for those 65-74 years old but increased among those 85 years old or older. IMPLICATIONS: Improvements in diagnosis and changes in the diagnosis and treatment of elderly patients provide likely explanations for the observed patterns in brain cancer trends.

Cancer surveillance series: interpreting trends in prostate cancer--part I: Evidence of the effects of screening in recent prostate cancer incidence, mortality, and survival rates.

BACKGROUND: The prostate-specific antigen test was approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration in 1986 to monitor the disease status in patients with prostate cancer and, in 1994, to aid in prostate cancer detection. However, after 1986, the test was performed on many men who had not been previously diagnosed with prostate cancer, apparently resulting in the diagnosis of a substantial number of early tumors. Our purpose is to provide insight into the effect of screening on prostate cancer rates. Detailed data are presented for whites because the size of the population allows for calculating statistically reliable rates; however, similar overall trends are seen for African-Americans and other races. METHODS: Prostate cancer incidence data from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program and mortality data from the National Center for Health Statistics were analyzed. RESULTS/CONCLUSIONS: The following findings are consistent with a screening effect: 1) the recent decrease since 1991 in the incidence of distant stage disease, after not having been perturbed by screening; 2) the decline in the incidence of earlier stage disease beginning the following year (i.e., 1992); 3) the recent increases and decreases in prostate cancer incidence and mortality by age that appear to indicate a calendar period effect; and 4) trends in the incidence of distant stage disease by tumor grade and trends in the survival of patients with distant stage disease by calendar year that provide suggestive evidence of the tendency of screening to detect slower growing tumors. IMPLICATIONS: The decline in the incidence of distant stage disease holds the promise that testing for prostate-specific antigen may lead to a sustained decline in prostate cancer mortality. However, population data are complex, and it is difficult to confidently attribute relatively small changes in mortality to any one cause.

Cancer surveillance series: interpreting trends in prostate cancer--part III: Quantifying the link between population prostate-specific antigen testing and recent declines in prostate cancer mortality.

BACKGROUND: The objective of this study was to investigate the circumstances under which dissemination of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing, beginning in 1988, could plausibly explain the declines in prostate cancer mortality observed from 1992 through 1994. METHODS: We developed a computer simulation model by use of information on population-based PSA testing patterns, cancer detection rates, average lead time (the time by which diagnosis is advanced by screening), and projected decreased risk of death associated with early diagnosis of prostate cancer through PSA testing. The model provides estimates of the number of deaths prevented by PSA testing for the 7-year period from 1988 through 1994 and projects what prostate cancer mortality for these years would have been in the absence of PSA testing. RESULTS: Results were generated by assuming a level of screening efficacy similar to that hypothesized for the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial. Under this assumption, the projected mortality in the absence of PSA testing continued the increasing trend observed before 1991 only when it was assumed that the mean lead time was 3 years or less. Projected mortality trends in the absence of PSA screening were not consistent with pre-1991 increasing trends for lead times of 5 years and 7 years. CONCLUSIONS: When screening is assumed to be at least as efficacious as hypothesized in the PLCO trial, it is unlikely that the entire decline in prostate cancer mortality can be explained by PSA testing based on current beliefs concerning lead time. Only very short lead times would produce a decline in mortality of the magnitude that has been observed.

Assessing uncertainty in microsimulation modelling with application to cancer screening interventions.

Microsimulation is fast becoming the approach of choice for modelling and analysing complex processes in the absence of mathematical tractability. While this approach has been developed and promoted in engineering contexts for some time, it has more recently found a place in the mainstream of the study of chronic disease interventions such as cancer screening. The construction of a simulation model requires the specification of a model structure and sets of parameter values, both of which may have a considerable amount of uncertainty associated with them. This uncertainty is rarely quantified when reporting micro-simulation results. We suggest a Bayesian approach and assume a parametric probability distribution to mathematically express the uncertainty related to model parameters. First, we design a simulation experiment to achieve good coverage of the parameter space. Second, we model a response surface for the outcome of interest as a function of the model parameters using the simulation results. Third, we summarize the variability in the outcome of interest, including variation due to parameter uncertainty, using the response surface in combination with parameter probability distributions. We illustrate the proposed method with an application of a microsimulator designed to investigate the effect of prostate specific antigen (PSA) screening on prostate cancer mortality rates.

Breast and cervical cancer screening interventions: an assessment of the literature.

An extensive body of intervention research to promote breast and cervical cancer screening has accumulated over the last three decades, but its coverage and comprehensiveness have not been assessed. We evaluated published reports of these interventions and propose a framework of critical elements for authors and researchers to use when contributing to this literature. We identified all articles describing breast and cervical cancer screening interventions published between January 1960 and May 1997 in the United States and abstracted specified critical elements in the broad areas of: (a) needs assessment; (b) intervention study design; and (c) analysis methods and study outcomes from each article using a template developed for that purpose. Fifty-eight studies met our criteria for inclusion. Thirty-eight focused exclusively on breast cancer screening, 7 promoted cervical cancer screening, and 13 were designed to promote screening for both cancers. The amount of detail reported varied among the 58 studies. All studies reported the outcome measures used to assess the effectiveness of the intervention, yet only 40% of the studies reported the investigators' original hypotheses or research questions. Needs assessment data were reported in 84% of the studies. Data sources ranged from national surveys to local intervention baseline surveys. Population characteristics reported also varied, with most studies reporting age and race of the study population (78 and 71%, respectively), and fewer studies reporting income and education (53 and 38%, respectively). As the field of behavioral intervention research progressed, we found that more recent studies included and reported many of the parameters we had identified as critical. If this trend continues, it will enhance the reproducibility of studies, enable comparisons between interventions, and provide a reference point for measuring progress in this area. To facilitate this trend toward uniform reporting, we propose an evaluative framework of critical elements for authors to use when developing and reporting their research. The comprehensive assessment of literature that this article provides should be useful background to investigators planning and reporting cancer control interventions, to funding agencies choosing and guiding quality research, and to publishers to help them enhance the quality and utility of their publications.

A comparison of one-sided methods to identify significant individual outcomes in a multiple outcome setting: stepwise tests or global tests with closed testing.

We compare two approaches to the identification of individual significant outcomes when a comparison of two groups involves multiple outcome variables. The approaches are all designed to control the familywise error rate (FWE) with any subset of the null hypothesis being true (in the strong sense). The first approach is initially to use a global test of the overall hypothesis that the groups are equivalent for all variables, followed by an application of the closed testing algorithm of Marcus, Peritz and Gabriel. The global tests considered here are ordinary least squares (OLS), generalized least squares (GLS), an approximation to a likelihood ratio test (ALR), and a new test based on an approximation to the most powerful similar test for simple alternatives. The second approach is that of stepwise testing, which tests the univariate hypotheses in a specific order with appropriate adjustment to the univariate p-values for multiplicity. The stepwise tests considered include both step-down and step-up tests of a general type, and likewise permutation tests that incorporate the dependence structure of the data. We illustrate the tests with two examples of birth outcomes: a comparison of cocaine-exposed new-borns to control new-borns on neurobehavioural and physical growth variables, and, in a separate study, a comparison of babies born to diabetic mothers and babies born to non-diabetic mothers on minor malformations. After describing the methods and analysing the birth outcome data, we use simulations on Gaussian data to provide guidelines for the use of these procedures in terms of power and computation.

The role of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing patterns in the recent prostate cancer incidence decline in the United States.

OBJECTIVES: Trends in first-time and later PSA procedure rates are ascertained using longitudinal data from a population-based cohort. These trends are compared to trends in prostate cancer incidence to determine the role of PSA in the recent decline in prostate cancer incidence. METHODS: Medicare data were linked with tumor registry data from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program. A 5 percent random sample (n = 39985) of Medicare beneficiaries from the SEER areas without a previous diagnosis of prostate cancer as of January 1, 1988 was followed through 1994. Trends in first-time PSA use were distinguished from those of second or later for men without diagnosed prostate cancer. RESULTS: Trends in the rate of first-time PSA procedures track closely with trends in prostate cancer incidence rates, increasing until 1992 and decreasing thereafter. Similar patterns were observed by race and age group. Geographic variability in the dissemination of PSA screening was observed, yet the association between testing and incidence remained. Men in the cohort had a 4.7 percent chance of being diagnosed within three months of an initial PSA test, with the percentage falling for subsequent tests. CONCLUSIONS: It is informative to distinguish first from later tests when assessing the effect of the diffusion of a test in a population. Taking this approach was useful in illuminating the role of PSA testing in a reversal of a long-term increase in prostate cancer incidence rates.

Anticonvulsant teratogenesis: 2. Statistical methods for multiple birth outcomes.

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the application of generalized estimating equations to assess an exposure effect using multiple birth outcomes. This multivariate approach provides the flexibility of regression modeling and improved power, as compared to series of univariate analyses or collapsing the multiple end-points to a single indicator of affectedness. Motivating the discussion will be a large cohort study designed to assess the effects of anticonvulsant medications on a variety of birth outcomes, including major malformations, and growth and weight parameters, as well as a broad spectrum of minor physical anomalies. Because the study is still in progress, the aim here is not to present a definitive analysis, but to present and describe the application of these recently developed statistical methods to analyze studies with multiple outcomes. For simplicity, we will focus on the control and drug-exposed groups only from that study (ignoring the seizure history group), and we will concentrate on an analysis of minor physical anomalies.

Diploid-Triploid Mosaicism: An Unusual Phenomenon in Side-Necked Turtles (Platemys platycephala).

Diploid and diploid-triploid mosaic individuals of Platemys platycephala were found in natural populations. In mosaic specimens, the blood, spleen, liver, and testis contained both diploid and triploid cells. The ratio of triploid to diploid cells was more variable among individuals than among somatic tissues within an individual. Only diploid cells underwent meiosis in males; haploid gametes were produced. There appears to be geographic variation for mosaicism in that only diploids were found in Bolivia, whereas diploids and diploid-triploid mosaics occured in Surinam.