Inter-model comparison of simulated Gulf of Mexico hypoxia in response to reduced nutrient loads: effects of phytoplankton and organic matter parameterization.

Complex simulation models are a valuable tool to inform nutrient management decisions aimed at reducing hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico, yet simulated hypoxia response to reduced nutrients varies greatly between models. We compared two biogeochemical models driven by the same hydrodynamics, the Coastal Generalized Ecosystem Model (CGEM) and Gulf of Mexico Dissolved Oxygen Model (GoMDOM), to investigate how they differ in simulating hypoxia and their response to reduced nutrients. Different phytoplankton nutrient kinetics produced 2-3 times more hypoxic area and volume on the western shelf in CGEM compared to GoMDOM. Reductions in hypoxic area were greatest in the western shelf, comprising 72% (~4,200 km2) of the total shelfwide hypoxia response. The range of hypoxia responses from multiple models suggests a 60% load reduction may result in a 33% reduction in hypoxic area, leaving an annual hypoxic area of ~9,000 km2 based on the latest 5-yr average (13,928 km2).

Contiguous Low Oxygen Waters between the Continental Shelf Hypoxia Zone and Nearshore Coastal Waters of Louisiana, USA: Interpreting 30 Years of Profiling Data and Three-Dimensional Ecosystem Modeling.

The multidecadal expansion of northern Gulf of Mexico continental shelf hypoxia is a striking example of the adverse effects of anthropogenic nutrient enrichment on coastal oceans. Increased nutrient inputs and widespread shelf hypoxia have resulted in numerous dissolved oxygen (DO) water quality problems in nearshore coastal waters of Louisiana. A large hydrographic dataset compiled from research programs spanning 30 years and the three-dimensional hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model CGEM (Coastal Generalized Ecosystem Model) were integrated to explore the interconnections of low DO waters across the continental shelf to nearshore coastal waters of Louisiana. Cross-shelf vertical profiles showed contiguous low DO bottom waters extending from the shelf to coastal waters nearly every year in the 30+ year time series, which were concurrent with strong cross-shelf pycnoclines. A threshold Brunt-Väisälä frequency of 40 cycles h-1 was critical to maintaining the cross-shelf subpycnocline layers and facilitating the formation of a contiguous low DO water mass. Field observations and model simulations identified periods of wind-driven bottom water upwelling lasting between several days to several weeks, resulting in both physical advection of oxygen-depleted offshore waters to the nearshore and enhanced nearshore stratification. Both the upwelling of low DO bottom waters and in situ respiration were of sufficient temporal and spatial extent to drive DO below Louisiana's DO water quality criteria. Basin-wide nutrient management strategies aimed at reducing nutrient inputs and shelf hypoxia remain essential to improving the nearshore coastal water quality across the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Modeling Spatiotemporal Patterns of Ecosystem Metabolism and Organic Carbon Dynamics Affecting Hypoxia on the Louisiana Continental Shelf.

The hypoxic zone on the Louisiana Continental Shelf (LCS) forms each summer due to nutrient enhanced primary production and seasonal stratification associated with freshwater discharges from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB). Recent field studies have identified highly productive shallow nearshore waters as an important component of shelf-wide carbon production contributing to hypoxia formation. In this study we present results from a three-dimensional hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model named CGEM (Coastal Generalized Ecosystem Model) applied to quantify the spatial and temporal patterns of hypoxia, carbon production, respiration, and transport between nearshore and middle shelf regions where hypoxia is most prevalent. We first demonstrate that our simulations successfully reproduced spatial and temporal patterns of carbon production, respiration, and bottom-water oxygen gradients compared to field observations. We then used interannual simulations to identify transport of particulate organic carbon (POC) from nearshore areas where riverine organic matter and phytoplankton carbon production are greatest. The spatial disconnect between carbon production and respiration in our simulations was driven by westward and offshore POC flux, a pattern that supported heterotrophic respiration on the middle shelf where hypoxia is frequently observed. These results validate the importance of offshore carbon flux to hypoxia formation, particularly on the west shelf where hypoxic conditions are more variable.

The impact of alternative nutrient kinetics and computational grid size on model predicted primary production and hypoxic area in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Model structure uncertainty is seldom calculated because of the difficulty and time required to perform such analyses. Here we explore how a coastal model using the Monod versus Droop formulations and a 6 km × 6 km versus 2 km 2 × km computational grid size predict primary production and hypoxic area in the Gulf of Mexico. Results from these models were compared to each other and to observations, and sensitivity analyses were performed. The different models fit the observations almost equally well. The 6k-model calculated higher rates of production and settling, and especially a larger hypoxic area, in comparison to the 2k-model. The Monod-based model calculated higher production, especially close to the river delta regions, but smaller summer hypoxic area, than the model using the Droop formulation. The Monod-based model was almost twice as sensitive to changes in nutrient loads in comparison to the Droop model, which can have management implications.

Spatially Variable Bioturbation and Physical Mixing Drive the Sedimentary Biogeochemical Seascape in the Louisiana Continental Shelf Hypoxic Zone.

Seasonal hypoxia on the Louisiana continental shelf (LCS) has grown to over 22,000 km2 with limited information available on how low oxygen effects the benthos. Benthic macrofaunal colonization and sediment biogeochemical parameters were characterized at twelve stations in waters 10 - 50 m deep along four transects spanning 320 km across the LCS hypoxic zone in the early fall of 2010 when bottom waters typically return to oxic conditions. Chemical data and sediment profile imaging (SPI) support three primary mechanistic pathways of organic matter degradation on the LCS: (i) metal oxide cycling in depositional muds, (ii) infauna-driven bioturbation delivering oxygen below the sediment-water interface, and (iii) sulfate reduction in sediments where iron oxide availability is limited. The transect nearest the Mississippi River delta had the highest concentrations of porewater and solid phase Mn and Fe with SPI images of recently deposited reddish, mixed muddy sediments suggestive of metal cycling. The deepest stations had high oxidized iron concentrations and rust colored sediments with faunal colonization that suggests sediments are oxidized via bioturbation. Many nearshore and central LCS stations had more black sediments, more disturbed clay layers, lower amounts of oxidized iron, and higher sulfate reduction rates than the deepest stations. Sediment mixing coefficients, DB , determined from chlorophyll-a concentration profiles varied between 33 and 183 cm-2 y-1. DB values were highest at the deepest stations where sediments were colonized. DB were not determined at two nearshore stations where chlorophyll-a concentrations were highly variable in surficial sediments, and on the eastern shelf where sedimentation is high. This study provides a regional view of benthic faunal colonization and sediment biogeochemistry on the LCS, describes regions with potentially different pathways of organic matter degradation, and demonstrates the importance of both bioturbation and physical mixing in processing the large amounts of organic matter in river-dominated continental shelf systems.

Satellite observation of particulate organic carbon dynamics in two river-dominated estuaries.

Particulate organic carbon (POC) plays an important role in coastal carbon cycling and the formation of hypoxia. Yet, coastal POC dynamics are often poorly understood due a lack of POC observations and the complexity of coastal hydrodynamic and biogeochemical processes that influence POC sources and sinks. Using a dataset of field observations and satellite ocean color products, we developed a new multiple regression algorithm to derive POC from satellite observations in two river-dominated estuaries in the northern Gulf of Mexico: the Louisiana Continental Shelf (LCS) and Mobile Bay. The algorithm had reliable performance with mean relative error (MRE) of ~40%, and root mean square error (RMSE) of ~50% for MODIS and SeaWiFS images in the two systems. Substantial spatio-temporal variability was observed from satellite on the LCS, with higher POC on the inner shelf (< 10 m depth) and lower POC on the middle (10-50 m depth) and outer shelves (50-200 m depth), and with higher POC in winter (January to March), and lower POC in summer to fall (August to October). Correlation analysis between long-term POC time series and several potential influencing factors indicated that river discharge dominants POC dynamics on the LCS. Wind and surface currents also affect POC spatial patterns on short time scales. This study demonstrates that algorithms that can determine coastal POC from satellites greatly increase the spatial and temporal extent of observations available for characterizing POC dynamics and their relations to various dominant physical forcings to the continental shelf and estuaries.

Parameter sensitivity and identifiability for a biogeochemical model of hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Local sensitivity analyses and identifiable parameter subsets were used to describe numerical constraints of a hypoxia model for bottom waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico. The sensitivity of state variables differed considerably with parameter changes, although most variables were responsive to changes in parameters that influenced planktonic growth rates and less sensitive to physical or chemical parameters. Variation in sensitivity had a direct correspondence with identifiability, such that only small subsets of the complete parameter set had unique effects on the model output. Selecting parameters by decreasing sensitivity demonstrated that only eight of 51 total parameters had a sufficiently unique effect on model output for accurate calibration. As a result, parameter selection heuristics were used to identify parameters for model calibration that depended on combined effects on output, relative sensitivity of each parameter, and ecological categories for the biogeochemical equations. The calibrated zero-dimensional (0-D) unit of the hypoxia model had improved fit to the observed data if sensitive phytoplankton parameters were included in an identifiable subset. Extension of results to a three-dimensional grid of the Gulf of Mexico showed that sensitive parameters for the 0-D model translated to non-trivial changes in the areal estimates of hypoxia.

Characterizing light attenuation within Northwest Florida Estuaries: Implications for RESTORE Act water quality monitoring.

Water Quality (WQ) condition is based on ecosystem stressor indicators (e.g. water clarity) which are biogeochemically important and critical when considering the Deepwater Horizon oil spill restoration efforts under the 2012 RESTORE Act. Nearly all of the proposed RESTORE projects list restoring WC as a goal, but 90% neglect water clarity. Here, dynamics of optical constituents impacting clarity are presented from a 2009-2011 study within Pensacola, Choctawhatchee, St. Andrew and St. Joseph estuaries (targeted RESTORE sites) in Northwest Florida. Phytoplankton were the smallest contribution to total absorption (at-wPAR) at 412nm (5-11%), whereas colored dissolved organic matter was the largest (61-79%). Estuarine at-wPAR was significantly related to light attenuation (KdPAR), where individual contributors to clarity and the influence of climatic events were discerned. Provided are conversion equations demonstrating interoperability of clarity indicators between traditional State-measured WQ measures (e.g. secchi disc), optical constituents, and even satellite remote sensing for obtaining baseline assessments.

Modeling the Relative Importance of Nutrient and Carbon Loads, Boundary Fluxes, and Sediment Fluxes on Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia.

The Louisiana continental shelf in the northern Gulf of Mexico experiences bottom water hypoxia in the summer. In this study, we applied a biogeochemical model that simulates dissolved oxygen concentrations on the shelf in response to varying riverine nutrient and organic carbon loads, boundary fluxes, and sediment fluxes. Five-year model simulations demonstrated that midsummer hypoxic areas were most sensitive to riverine nutrient loads and sediment oxygen demand from settled organic carbon. Hypoxic area predictions were also sensitive to nutrient and organic carbon fluxes from lateral boundaries. The predicted hypoxic area decreased with decreases in nutrient loads, but the extent of change was influenced by the method used to estimate model boundary concentrations. We demonstrated that modeling efforts to predict changes in hypoxic area on the continental shelf in relationship to changes in nutrients should include representative boundary nutrient and organic carbon concentrations and functions for estimating sediment oxygen demand that are linked to settled organic carbon derived from water-column primary production. On the basis of our model analyses using the most representative boundary concentrations, nutrient loads would need to be reduced by 69% to achieve the Gulf of Mexico Nutrient Task Force Action Plan target hypoxic area of 5000 km(2).

An approach to developing numeric water quality criteria for coastal waters using the SeaWiFS Satellite Data Record.

Human activities on land increase nutrient loads to coastal waters, which can increase phytoplankton production and biomass and associated ecological impacts. Numeric nutrient water quality standards are needed to protect coastal waters from eutrophication impacts. The Environmental Protection Agency determined that numeric nutrient criteria were necessary to protect designated uses of Florida's waters. The objective of this study was to evaluate a reference condition approach for developing numeric water quality criteria for coastal waters, using data from Florida. Florida's coastal waters have not been monitored comprehensively via field sampling to support numeric criteria development. However, satellite remote sensing had the potential to provide adequate data. Spatial and temporal measures of SeaWiFS OC4 chlorophyll-a (Chl(RS)-a, mg m(-3)) were resolved across Florida's coastal waters between 1997 and 2010 and compared with in situ measurements. Statistical distributions of Chl(RS)-a were evaluated to determine a quantitative reference baseline. A binomial approach was implemented to consider how new data could be assessed against the criteria. The proposed satellite remote sensing approach to derive numeric criteria may be generally applicable to other coastal waters.

Uncertainty propagation in an ecosystem nutrient budget.

New aspects and advancements in classical uncertainty propagation methods were used to develop a nutrient budget with associated uncertainty for a northern Gulf of Mexico coastal embayment. Uncertainty was calculated for budget terms by propagating the standard error and degrees of freedom. New aspects include the combined use of Monte Carlo simulations with classical error propagation methods, uncertainty analyses for GIS computations, and uncertainty propagation involving literature and subjective estimates of terms used in the budget calculations. The methods employed are broadly applicable to the mathematical operations employed in ecological studies involving step-by-step calculations, scaling procedures, and calculations of variables from direct measurements and/or literature estimates. Propagation of the standard error and the degrees of freedom allowed for calculation of the uncertainty intervals around every term in the budget. For scientists and environmental managers, the methods developed herein provide a relatively simple framework to propagate and assess the contributions of uncertainty in directly measured and literature estimated variables to calculated variables. Application of these methods to environmental data used in scientific reporting and environmental management will improve the interpretation of data and simplify the estimation of risk associated with decisions based on ecological studies.

Multiple regression models for hindcasting and forecasting midsummer hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico.

A new suite of multiple regression models was developed that describes relationships between the area of bottom water hypoxia along the northern Gulf of Mexico and Mississippi-Atchafalaya River nitrate concentration, total phosphorus (TP) concentration, and discharge. Model input variables were derived from two load estimation methods, the adjusted maximum likelihood estimation (AMLE) and the composite (COMP) method, developed by the U.S. Geological Survey. Variability in midsummer hypoxic area was described by models that incorporated May discharge, May nitrate, and February TP concentrations or their spring (discharge and nitrate) and winter (TP) averages. The regression models predicted the observed hypoxic area within +/-30%, yet model residuals showed an increasing trend with time. An additional model variable, Epoch, which allowed post-1993 observations to have a different intercept than earlier observations, suggested that hypoxic area has been 6450 km2 greater per unit discharge and nutrients since 1993. Model forecasts predicted that a dual 45% reduction in nitrate and TP concentration would likely reduce hypoxic area to approximately 5000 km2, the coastal goal established by the Mississippi River/Gulf of Mexico Watershed Nutrient Task Force. However, the COMP load estimation method, which is more accurate than the AMLE method, resulted in a smaller predicted hypoxia response to any given nutrient reduction than models based on the AMLE method. Monte Carlo simulations predicted that five years after an instantaneous 50% nitrate reduction or dual 45% nitrate and TP reduction it would be possible to resolve a significant reduction in hypoxic area. However, if nutrient reduction targets were achieved gradually (e.g., over 10 years), much more than a decade would be required before a significant downward trend in both nutrient concentrations and hypoxic area could be resolved against the large background of interannual variability. The multiple regression models and statistical approaches applied provide improved capabilities for evaluating dual nutrient management strategies to address Gulf hypoxia and a clearer perspective on the strengths and limitations of approaching the problem using regression models.

Regulation of eutrophication susceptibility in oligohaline regions of a northern Gulf of Mexico estuary, Mobile Bay, Alabama.

The factors regulating the eutrophication susceptibility of seven oligohaline regions in the sub-estuaries of Mobile Bay, Alabama were examined in a comparative analysis. The oligohaline regions differed primarily by the dominant land-use of their upstream watersheds, with two of the regions being primarily urban, two being primarily agricultural, and three being primarily forested. A stepwise model selection procedure was used to determine a suite of multiple regression models describing eutrophication response, in terms of a chlorophyll a (chla) on a sampling event basis, in relation to estuarine mixing time scales, nutrient concentrations, light availability, and watershed delivery of freshwater and nutrients. The models indicated a strong positive relationship between chla and mixing time scales (i.e., residence time or freshwater flushing time). Mixing time scales longer than five days allowed maximum chla (64 microg l(-1)), while lowest chla (< 1 microg l(-1)) occurred when mixing time scales were less than two days. Of the watershed inputs, chla exhibited opposing relationships with the components of freshwater load, having a negative relationship with discharge and a positive relationship with incoming freshwater nitrogen concentrations. Estuarine phosphorus concentrations and photosynthetically active radiation were also found to be good descriptors of chla. The comparative approach employed here allowed for the development of empirical models that were used to determine the nutrient concentration reductions required to achieve a trophic state of < 20 microg l(-1) chla. The average reductions in nitrogen and phosphorus needed to achieve this trophic state ranged from 0 to 32%.

Effects of land use and land cover, stream discharge, and interannual climate on the magnitude and timing of nitrogen, phosphorus, and organic carbon concentrations in three coastal plain watersheds.

In-stream nitrogen, phosphorus, organic carbon, and suspended sediment concentrations were measured in 18 subbasins over 2 annual cycles to assess how land use and land cover (LULC) and stream discharge regulate water quality variables. The LULC was a primary driver of in-stream constituent concentrations and nutrient speciation owing to differences in dominant sources and input pathways associated with agricultural, urban, and forested land uses. Stream discharge was shown to be a major factor that dictated not only the magnitude of constituent concentrations, but also the chemical form. In high discharge agricultural subbasins, where nitrate was the dominant nitrogen form, there was a negative correlation between discharge and nitrate concentration indicating groundwater inputs as the dominant pathway. In urban settings, however, nitrate was positively correlated with discharge, and, in forested subwatersheds, where dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) was the dominant nitrogen form, there was a positive correlation between discharge and DON, indicating washoff from the watershed as the dominant input pathway. Similarly, phosphorus concentrations were strongly regulated by LULC, discharge, and seasonality. This comparative study highlights that different mechanisms regulate different forms of nitrogen, phosphorus, and carbon, and thus field programs or water quality models used for regulatory purposes must assess these nutrient forms to accurately apply management plans for nutrient reductions.