ABSTRACT
In the context of rapid urbanization, metropolitan areas are facing the risk of supply-demand mismatches among ecosystem services. Investigating the patterns, relationships, and driving factors of multiple supply-demand risks is of great significance to support the efficient management of regional ecological risks. We quantified the single/comprehensive supply-demand risk rates of six ecosystem services in Wuhan Metropolitan Area at the township scale in 2000, 2010, and 2020. By applying the self-organizing feature map network and optimal parameter geo-detector, we identified supply-demand risks bundles of ecosystem services and influencing factors of comprehensive risks. The results showed significant spatial variations in the supply-demand risks of typical ecosystem services from 2000 to 2020. The supply-demand risk associated with grain production, water yield, carbon sequestration, and green space recreation increased, while soil conservation and water purification risks decreased. The comprehensive ecosystem services supply-demand risk increased from 0.41 to 0.45, indicating a 'core area increase and periphery decrease' trend. Throughout the study period, the area exhibited bundles of comprehensive extremely high-risk bundles (B1), comprehensive high-risk bundles (B2), water purification high-risk bundles (B3), and grain production-soil conservation risk bundles (B4). The transition of risk types from B3 to B2 and from B2 to B1 suggested an increase in the combination and intensity of supply-demand risk. Vegetation cover, nighttime light index, and population density were the main driving factors for spatial variations in comprehensive supply-demand risk. Ecologi-cal risk assessment based on ecosystem services supply-demand bundles could provide an effective and reliable way to regulate multiple regional risk issues.
