Geographical evolutionary pathway of global tuberculosis incidence trends.

BACKGROUNDS: Tuberculosis (TB) remains a serious public health and human development problem, especially in developing countries. Despite the effectiveness of directly observed therapy, short course programs in reducing transmission and progression of TB, poverty reduction and socioeconomic development remain crucial factors in decreasing TB incidence. However, the geographical pathway on the planet is not yet clear. OBJECTIVES: This study was to reconstruct the geographical evolutionary process of TB in 173 countries and territories from 2010 to 2019 to analyze the socioeconomic determinants that impact the global TB epidemic. In addition, the TB incidence in 2030 was predicted. METHODS: This study analyses TB incidence data from 173 countries and territories between 2010 and 2019. The Geotree model would be used to reconstruct the geographical evolutionary process of TB, which provides a simplified schema for geo-visualizing the trajectories of TB incidence and their socioeconomic drivers. Additionally, to estimate the future TB incidence in 2030, a multilevel model was utilized in conjunction with the hierarchical nature of the Geotree based on a stratified heterogeneity analysis. RESULTS: Global TB incidence was found to be associated with the country type and development stages. Between 2010 and 2019, the average TB incidence rate in 173 countries and territories was -27.48%, with marked spatially stratified heterogeneity by country type and development stage. Low-income and lower-middle-income countries were most vulnerable to TB. Upper-middle-income countries experienced a faster decline in TB incidence than high-income countries, and TB incidence generally decreased as the development stage increased, except for the lower-middle development stage in 2019.The highest average rate of decline in TB incidence was observed in the upper-middle development stage of high-income countries, with a reduction of 45.24%. Meanwhile, 37 high-income countries in the high development stage demonstrated an average rate of change of -13.93%. Socioeconomic determinants, including gross domestic product per capita, urbanization rate, and sociodemographic index, were found to inhibit TB incidence. Based on current trends, the predicted average global TB incidence in 2030 is 91.581 per 100,000 population. CONCLUSIONS: The trajectories of the global TB incidence have been reconstructed to formulate targeted public health responses. To eliminate TB, countries at similar development stage can draw on the experiences of countries at higher development stages that are tailored to their unique characteristics. By learning from successful TB control strategies, countries can take strategic steps toward eradicating TB and improving public health outcomes.

Early signs of geographic spread of COVID-19: lessons learnt from outbreaks in Wuhan 2020 and Nanjing 2021.

BACKGROUND: Knowing the spatiotemporal pattern of the early geographic spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) would inform the preparedness for a possible recurrence of COVID-19. METHODS: We ascertained the number of confirmed cases during the early spread of COVID-19 during the Wuhan outbreak in 2020 and the Nanjing outbreak in 2021. RESULTS: We observed a speeding-up pattern of geographic spread, in particular to cities of no particular orientation then outflowing to commercial cities during the first month of both the Wuhan and Nanjing outbreaks. CONCLUSION: Re-emergence of COVID-19 indicates it is becoming endemic, with new outbreaks and a risk of increased transmission remaining a challenge to local public health institutions. Social distancing and lockdowns should continue in response to any potential widespread and focal outbreaks.

Predicting the potential risk area of illegal vaccine trade in China.

Since the disclosure of the "Illegal vaccine operation series case in Jinan, Shandong" in March, 2016, this issue has attracted a great deal of attention and has led to public concerns about the safety and efficacy of the vaccines involved in this case. The main purpose of this paper is to scientifically and scrupulously predict the possible geographic distribution of illegal vaccines in China, and provide a foundation to guide future governmental policies and actions. A species distribution model was used because of the advantages of using presence/pseudo-absence or presence-only data, and it performs well with incomplete species distribution data. A series of socioeconomic variables were used to simulate habitat suitability distribution. Maxent (Maximum Entropy Model) and GARP (Genetic Algorithm for Rule set Production) were used to predict the risks of illegal vaccines in China, and define the spatial distribution and significant factors of the area at risk from illegal vaccines. Jackknife tests were used to evaluate the relative importance of socioeconomic variables. It was found that: (1) Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu and Anhui are the main high-risk areas impacted by the vaccines involved in Jinan case. (2) Population density and industrial structure are the main socioeconomic factors affecting areas which may be at risk from illegal vaccines.

[Preparation of poly(methyl acrylate) microfluidic chips surface-modified by hyperbranched polyamide ester and their application in the separation of biomolecules].

The surface of poly (methyl acrylate) (PMMA) microfluidic chips were modified using hyperbranched polyamide ester via chemical bonding. The contact angles of the modified chips were measured. The surface morphology was observed by scanning electron microscope (SEM) and stereo microscope. The results showed that the surface of the modified chips was coated by a dense, uniform, continuous, hydrophilic layer of hyperbranched polyamide ester. The hydrophilic of the chip surface was markedly improved. The contact angle of the chips modified decreased from 89.9 degrees to 29.5 degrees. The electro osmotic flow (EOF) in the modified microchannel was lower than that in the unmodified microchannel. Adenosine and L-lysine were detected and separated via the modified PMMA microfluidic chips. Compared with unmodified chips, the modified chips successfully separated the two biomolecules. The detection peaks were clear and sharp. The separation efficiencies of adenosine and L-lysine were 8.44 x 10(4) plates/m and 9.82 x 10(4) plates/m respectively, and the resolutions (Rs) was 5.31. The column efficiencies and resolutions of the modified chips were much higher than those of the unmodified chips. It was also observed that the modified chips possessed good reproducibility of migration time. This research may provide a new and effective method to improve the hydrophilicity of the PMMA surface and the application of PMMA microfluidic chips in the determination of trace biomolecules.