Psychosocial factors in knee osteoarthritis: Scoping review of evidence and future opportunities.

OBJECTIVE: Identify, describe and produce an evidence map of studies investigating psychosocial factors association with, or effect on, clinical outcomes for people with knee osteoarthritis. METHODS: Scoping review of interventional and observational studies was performed. Medline (Ovid), Embase (Ovid), Cumulated Index in Nursing and Allied Health Literature, PsycInfo and Web of Science were searched on the 15th May 2023. Screening, data extraction and analysis was performed by two independent researchers. Extracted information included characteristics of studies plus which psychosocial factors were used to investigate association with, or effect on, clinical outcome(s). Descriptive statistics summarized the study design, temporal trend, geographic distribution, frequency of each psychosocial factor and whether associations/effects were observed. RESULTS: 23,065 records were screened, with 108 studies selected. Eighty-two percent of studies (n = 89/108) were cross-sectional in design. Number of studies increased over time and spanned 28 countries. Most research originated from the Americas region (55 %, 59/108). Twenty-four psychosocial factors (11 psychological, 13 social) were identified. Depression (47 %, n = 48/102) and education (28 %, n = 29/102) were the most frequently reported psychological and social factors, respectively. Psychological factors were often reported to have an association with/effect on pain (81 %, n = 71/88) and physical function (75 %, n = 56/74). Social factors were less frequently reported to have an association with or effect on pain (57 %, n = 46/81) and physical function (50 %, n = 18/36). CONCLUSION: Psychosocial factors are often associated with clinical outcomes for people with knee osteoarthritis. High-quality longitudinal studies examining a wide range of psychosocial factors across diverse cultural and geographical settings are key to continue informing the development of biopsychosocial models of care.

Visual narratives in medicine - Bridging the gap in graphic medicine with an illustrated narrative of osteoarthritis.

Objective: Visual narratives have been used in medicine to share information in the form of stories with the potential to improve understanding of conditions and change behaviours. One genre of visual narratives is "graphic medicine", which integrates comics into medical education and the delivery of healthcare. Graphic medicine can maximise the impact of research findings by presenting them in a more accessible format, which may be particularly useful in certain populations, such as those with low levels of health literacy. Those with lower health literacy levels and osteoarthritis (OA) are less likely to manage their condition with guideline recommended management strategies, experience a higher burden of disease, and have lower access to care. Our objectives were to review the current visual narratives in the field of and create a graphic medicine visual narrative based on existing research. Design: This paper summarises the current visual narratives in OA and presents a graphic medicine visual narrative to illustrate the experience of living with OA. Considerations for the dissemination of visual narratives to target audiences are also discussed. Results: The most common visual narratives in are infographics, videos, and graphic medicine. A graphic medicine visual narrative, based on previous qualitative work and informed by a framework, was created to illustrate two distinct narratives - impairment and participatory. Conclusion: Visual narratives remain an emerging field in OA but may serve as a useful resource for patients or clinicians to discuss various aspects of OA management. Future research should evaluate and validate the use of visual narratives in OA.

Depression and Time to Knee Arthroplasty Among Adults Who Have Knee Osteoarthritis.

BACKGROUND: Depression is common in osteoarthritis (OA) and is associated with poor outcomes following total knee arthroplasty (TKA). Depression can increase pain sensitivity and may be related to an increased likelihood of TKA. METHODS: Nationally distributed electronic health record data from 2010 to 2018 were used to identify eligible patients (n = 9,466) who had knee OA and were 45 to 80 years of age. Cox proportional hazard models were computed to estimate the association between depression and incident TKA for all patients and by age group (45 to 54, 55 to 64, and 65 to 80 years of age). Confounding was controlled using entropy balancing. Sensitivity analyses determined if the association between depression and TKA differed when depression occurred in the 12 months occurring 90, 60, 30, and 0 days lag time before TKA. RESULTS: The mean age of the sample was 63 (range, 45 to 80), 64.0% were women, 83.3% were White race, and approximately 50% resided in the Midwest. There was no association between depression and incident TKA (hazard ratio = 0.97; confidence interval = 0.81 to 1.16]). Results did not differ in age-stratified analyses. Sensitivity analyses revealed a higher percentage of TKA among depressed versus nondepressed patients (24.2 versus 21.6%; P = .028) when the patient's depression diagnosis was established in the 12 months with no lag time before TKA. CONCLUSIONS: Patients who have knee OA and comorbid depression, compared to those who have only knee OA, do not have an increased likelihood of TKA. The multifactorial, complex decision to obtain TKA does not appear to be influenced by depression, but depression is a common comorbidity.

The effect of care interruptions on mortality in adults resuming antiretroviral therapy.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the relative rate of all-cause mortality amongst those on antiretroviral treatment (ART) with a history of interruptions compared with those with no previous interruptions in care. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. METHODS: We used data from four South African cohorts participating in the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS Southern Africa collaboration. We included adults who started ART between 2004 and 2019. We defined a care interruption as a gap in contact longer than 180 days. Observation time prior to interruption was allocated to a 'no interruption' group. Observation time after interruption was allocated to one of two groups based on whether the first interruption started before 6 months of ART ('early interruption') or later ('late interruption'). We used Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios. RESULTS: Sixty-three thousand six hundred and ninety-two participants contributed 162 916 person-years of observation. There were 3469 deaths. Most participants were female individuals (67.4%) and the median age at ART initiation was 33.3 years (interquartile range: 27.5-40.7). Seventeen thousand and eleven (26.7%) participants experienced care interruptions. Those resuming ART experienced increased mortality compared with those with no interruptions: early interrupters had a hazard ratio of 4.37 (95% confidence interval (CI) 3.87-4.95) and late interrupters had a hazard ratio of 2.74 (95% CI 2.39-3.15). In sensitivity analyses, effect sizes were found to be proportional to the length of time used to define interruptions. CONCLUSION: Our findings highlight the need to improve retention in care, regardless of treatment duration. Programmes to encourage return to care also need to be strengthened.

Exploring the validity of routine individuated service data for antenatal HIV surveillance in the Western Cape.

Background: In the Western Cape, South Africa, public-sector individual-level routine data are consolidated from multiple sources through the Provincial Health Data Centre (PHDC). This enables the description of temporal changes in population-wide antenatal HIV seroprevalence. We evaluated the validity of these data compared to aggregated program data and population-wide sentinel antenatal HIV seroprevalence surveys for the Western Cape province. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort analysis of all pregnancies identified in the PHDC from January 2011 to December 2020. Evidence of antenatal and HIV care from electronic platforms were linked using a unique patient identifier. HIV prevalence estimates were triangulated and compared with available survey estimates and aggregated programmatic data from registers as recorded in the District Health Information System. Provincial, district-level and age-group HIV prevalence estimates were compared between data systems using correlation coefficients, absolute differences and trend analysis. Results: Of the 977800 pregnancies ascertained, PHDC HIV prevalence estimates from 2011-2013 were widely disparate from aggregate and survey data (due to incomplete electronic data), whereas from 2014 onwards, estimates were within the 95% confidence interval of survey estimates, and closely correlated to aggregate data estimates (r = 0.8; p = 0.01), with an average prevalence difference of 0.4%. PHDC data show a slow but steady increase in provincial HIV prevalence from 16.7% in 2015 to 18.6% in 2020. The highest HIV prevalence was in the Cape Metro district (20.3%) Prevalence estimates by age group were comparable between sentinel surveys and PHDC from 2015 onwards, with prevalence estimates stable over time among younger age-groups (15-24 years) but increased among older age-groups (> 34 years). Conclusions: This study compares sentinel seroprevalence surveys with both register-based aggregate data and consolidated individuated administrative data. We show that in this setting linked individuated data may be reliably used for HIV surveillance and provide more granular estimates with greater efficiency than seroprevalence surveys and register-based aggregate data.

Budget impact of the Walk With Ease program for knee osteoarthritis.

Objective: Walk With Ease (WWE) is an effective low-cost walking program. We estimated the budget impact of implementing WWE in persons with knee osteoarthritis (OA) as a measure of affordability that can inform payers' funding decisions. Methods: We estimated changes in two-year healthcare costs with and without WWE. We used the Osteoarthritis Policy (OAPol) Model to estimate per-person medical expenditures. We estimated total and per-member-per-month (PMPM) costs of funding WWE for a hypothetical insurance plan with 75,000 members under two conditions: 1) all individuals aged 45+ with knee OA eligible for WWE, and 2) inactive and insufficiently active individuals aged 45+ with knee OA eligible. In sensitivity analyses, we varied WWE cost and efficacy and considered productivity costs. Results: With eligibility unrestricted by activity level, implementing WWE results in an additional $1,002,408 to the insurance plan over two years ($0.56 PMPM). With eligibility restricted to inactive and insufficiently active individuals, funding WWE results in an additional $571,931 over two years ($0.32 PMPM). In sensitivity analyses, when per-person costs of $10 to $1000 were added with 10-50% decreases in failure rate (enhanced sustainability of WWE benefits), two-year budget impact varied from $242,684 to $6,985,674 with unrestricted eligibility and from -$43,194 (cost-saving) to $4,484,122 with restricted eligibility. Conclusion: Along with the cost-effectiveness of WWE at widely accepted willingness-to-pay thresholds, these results can inform payers in deciding to fund WWE. In the absence of accepted thresholds to define affordability, these results can assist in comparing the affordability of WWE with other behavioral interventions.

"Is It Realistic?": A Qualitative Study of the Experiences of Elite Women Athletes Considering Parenthood.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: As the visibility and acceptance of athlete-mothers increase, so does the number of women athletes considering parenthood. Yet, many athletes struggle with the decision to become a parent while competing at the elite level due to the significant changes and uncertainties that have been reported by pregnant and parenting athletes. The experiences of women athletes considering parenthood are under-represented in the vast sport literature but are necessary for developing evidenced-based policies and practices that can support women's equitable participation in high-performance sport contexts. Thus, the purpose of this qualitative study was to describe the experiences of elite women athletes that are considering parenthood. METHODS: Participants were ten elite North American athletes (29-36 years) who are considering becoming parents in the next 5 years. Each participant self-identified as a woman and competed at the highest level in their respective sport. Data were generated via one-on-one semi-structured interviews that were audio-recorded, transcribed verbatim, and analyzed through a process of content analysis. RESULTS: The experiences of elite women athletes considering parenthood are represented by five themes: (a) calls for essential mandates and leadership, (b) how do you support yourself?, (c) hesitation of body changes, (d) age inequities, and (e) being proactive about reproductive health. Such findings support an in-depth understanding of gender-specific stressors that limit women's equitable participation in high-performance contexts. CONCLUSION: This research is grounded in the voices of elite women athletes and identifies actionable steps necessary for research and culture change. Findings provide necessary evidence to inform the development of sport policies to support those athletes that are considering becoming parents.

Can routine antenatal data be used to assess HIV antiretroviral therapy coverage among pregnant women? Evaluating the validity of different data sources in the Western Cape, South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Accurate measurement of antenatal antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage in pregnancy is imperative in tracking progress towards elimination of vertical HIV transmission. In the Western Cape, South Africa, public-sector individual-level routine data are consolidated from multiple sources, enabling the description of temporal changes in population-wide antenatal antiretroviral coverage. We evaluated the validity of different methods for measuring ART coverage among pregnant women. METHODS: We compared self-reported ART data from a 2014 antenatal survey with laboratory assay data from a sub-sample within the survey population. Thereafter, we conducted a retrospective cohort analysis of all pregnancies consolidated in the Provincial Health Data Centre (PHDC) from January 2011 to December 2020. Evidence of antenatal and HIV care from electronic platforms were linked using a unique patient identifier. ART coverage estimates were triangulated with available antenatal survey estimates, aggregated programmatic data from registers recorded in the District Health Information System (DHIS) and Thembisa modelling estimates. RESULTS: Self-reported ART in the 2014 sentinel antenatal survey (n = 1434) had high sensitivity (83.5%), specificity (94.5%) and agreement (k = 0.8) with the gold standard of laboratory analysis of ART. Based on linked routine data, ART coverage by the time of delivery in mothers of live births increased from 67.4% in 2011 to 94.7% by 2019. This pattern of increasing antenatal ART coverage was also seen in the DHIS data, and estimated by the Thembisa model, but was less consistent in the antenatal survey data. CONCLUSION: This study is the first in a high-burden HIV setting to compare sentinel ART surveillance data with consolidated individuated administrative data. Although self-report in survey conditions showed high validity, more recent data sources based on self-report and medical records may be uncertain with increasing ART coverage over time. Linked individuated data may offer a promising option for ART coverage estimation with greater granularity and efficiency.

Future HIV epidemic trajectories in South Africa and projected long-term consequences of reductions in general population HIV testing: a mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: After successful intensive interventions to rapidly increase HIV awareness, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and viral suppression, HIV programmes in eastern and southern Africa are considering scaling back of some interventions, such as widespread general population HIV testing. We aimed to model whether scaling back of general population HIV testing in South Africa could result in a resurgence of the HIV epidemic or substantial slowing of declines in HIV incidence, resulting in increased long-term ART. METHODS: In this modelling study, we used the Thembisa 4.5 model (a deterministic compartmental model of HIV transmission in South Africa) to project the South African HIV epidemic to 2100 assuming the continuation of 2022 epidemiological conditions and HIV programme implementation. We assessed how implementing reductions in general population HIV testing services in 2025 (while maintaining antenatal, symptom-based, and risk-based testing modalities and other HIV prevention services at 2022 levels) would affect HIV incidence and prevalence among people aged 15-49 years, the year in which incidence would reach one per 1000 people aged 15-49 years (the threshold for virtual elimination of HIV), and associated costs, as well as numbers of additional new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths. We also modelled the effects of delaying reductions in general population testing services by 5-year increments. Additionally, we modelled the potential effects of reductions in general population testing services in combination with increases or decreases in ART interruption rates (ie, the annual rate at which people who are on ART discontinue ART) and condom usage in 2025-35. FINDINGS: If general population HIV testing services and the HIV risk environment of 2022 were maintained, we projected that HIV incidence would steadily decline from 4·95 (95% CI 4·40-5·34) per 1000 population in 2025 to 0·14 (0·05-0·31) per 1000 in 2100, and that the so-called virtual elimination threshold of less than one new infection per 1000 population per year would be reached in 2055 (95% CI 2051-2060). Scaling back of general population HIV testing services by 25%, 50%, or 75% in 2025 delayed time to reaching the virtual elimination threshold by 5, 13, or 35 years, respectively, whereas complete cessation of general population testing would result in the threshold not being attained by 2100. Although the incidence of HIV continued to fall when general HIV testing services were reduced, our modelling suggested that, with reductions of between 25% and 100%, between 396 000 (95% CI 299 000-474 000) and 2·50 million (1·97 million-2·98 million) additional HIV infections and between 115 000 (94 000-135 000) and 795 000 (670 000-926 000) additional AIDS-related deaths would occur between 2025 and 2075, depending on the extent of reduction in testing. Delaying reductions in general population HIV testing services for 5-25 years mitigated some of these effects. HIV testing accounted for only 5% of total programmatic costs at baseline; reducing testing moderately reduced short-term total annual costs, but increased annual costs after 25 years. Increases in ART interruption and reductions in condom usage were projected to slow the decline in incidence and increase the coverage of general HIV testing services required to control transmission but did not cause rapid resurgence in HIV infections. INTERPRETATION: Our modelling suggests that scaling back of general population HIV testing would not result in a resurgence of HIV infections, but would delay attainment of incidence-reduction targets and result in long-term increases in HIV infections, AIDS-related deaths, and costs (via increased need for ART provision). HIV programmes need to balance short-term potential resource savings with long-term epidemic control objectives. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Cost-Effectiveness of Community-Based Diet and Exercise for Patients with Knee Osteoarthritis and Obesity or Overweight.

OBJECTIVE: Obesity exacerbates pain and functional limitation in persons with knee osteoarthritis (OA). In the Weight Loss and Exercise for Communities with Arthritis in North Carolina (WE-CAN) study, a community-based diet and exercise (D + E) intervention led to an additional 6 kg weight loss and 20% greater pain relief in persons with knee OA and body mass index (BMI) >27 kg/m2 relative to a group-based health education (HE) intervention. We sought to determine the incremental cost-effectiveness of the usual care (UC), UC + HE, and UC + (D + E) programs, comparing each strategy with the "next-best" strategy ranked by increasing lifetime cost. METHODS: We used the Osteoarthritis Policy Model to project long-term clinical and economic benefits of the WE-CAN interventions. We considered three strategies: UC, UC + HE, and UC + (D + E). We derived cohort characteristics, weight, and pain reduction from the WE-CAN trial. Our outcomes included quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), cost, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). RESULTS: In a cohort with mean age 65 years, BMI 37 kg/m2, and Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index pain score 38 (scale 0-100, 100 = worst), UC leads to 9.36 QALYs/person, compared with 9.44 QALYs for UC + HE and 9.49 QALYS for UC + (D + E). The corresponding lifetime costs are $147,102, $148,139, and $151,478. From the societal perspective, UC + HE leads to an ICER of $12,700/QALY; adding D + E to UC leads to an ICER of $61,700/QALY. CONCLUSION: The community-based D + E program for persons with knee OA and BMI >27kg/m2 could be cost-effective for willingness-to-pay thresholds greater than $62,000/QALY. These findings suggest that incorporation of community-based D + E programs into OA care may be beneficial for public health.

A model-based approach to estimating the prevalence of disease combinations in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: The development of strategies to better detect and manage patients with multiple long-term conditions requires estimates of the most prevalent condition combinations. However, standard meta-analysis tools are not well suited to synthesising heterogeneous multimorbidity data. METHODS: We developed a statistical model to synthesise data on associations between diseases and nationally representative prevalence estimates and applied the model to South Africa. Published and unpublished data were reviewed, and meta-regression analysis was conducted to assess pairwise associations between 10 conditions: arthritis, asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), depression, diabetes, HIV, hypertension, ischaemic heart disease (IHD), stroke and tuberculosis. The national prevalence of each condition in individuals aged 15 and older was then independently estimated, and these estimates were integrated with the ORs from the meta-regressions in a statistical model, to estimate the national prevalence of each condition combination. RESULTS: The strongest disease associations in South Africa are between COPD and asthma (OR 14.6, 95% CI 10.3 to 19.9), COPD and IHD (OR 9.2, 95% CI 8.3 to 10.2) and IHD and stroke (OR 7.2, 95% CI 5.9 to 8.4). The most prevalent condition combinations in individuals aged 15+ are hypertension and arthritis (7.6%, 95% CI 5.8% to 9.5%), hypertension and diabetes (7.5%, 95% CI 6.4% to 8.6%) and hypertension and HIV (4.8%, 95% CI 3.3% to 6.6%). The average numbers of comorbidities are greatest in the case of COPD (2.3, 95% CI 2.1 to 2.6), stroke (2.1, 95% CI 1.8 to 2.4) and IHD (1.9, 95% CI 1.6 to 2.2). CONCLUSION: South Africa has high levels of HIV, hypertension, diabetes and arthritis, by international standards, and these are reflected in the most prevalent condition combinations. However, less prevalent conditions such as COPD, stroke and IHD contribute disproportionately to the multimorbidity burden, with high rates of comorbidity. This modelling approach can be used in other settings to characterise the most important disease combinations and levels of comorbidity.

Trends and factors associated with illicit drug use in South Africa: Findings from multiple national population-based household surveys, 2002-2017.

BACKGROUND: Illicit drug use results in considerable global morbidity, but there is little data on its trends and factors associated with it in sub-Saharan Africa. We consider these questions using national data from South Africa for 2002-2017. METHODS: We analysed data among individuals aged 15 years or older from five national population-based household surveys in South Africa (2002-2017; n = 89,113). Recent drug use was defined as the last three-months use of illicit drugs, i.e., any use of cannabis, cocaine, amphetamine, inhalants, sedatives, hallucinogens, opioids, and/or other illicit drugs. Time trends in recent drug use were assessed using logistic regression. Multivariable logistic regression assessed the association between recent drug use and socio-demographic factors and between drug use and sexual risk behaviours, HIV-related and other well-being variables. RESULTS: The prevalence of recent drug use increased from 1·5% to 10·0% from 2002 to 2017, driven by increases in cannabis use (1·5% to 7·8%) and use of opioids (0·01% to 1·6%), cocaine (0·02% to 1·8%), or amphetamines (0·1% to 1·5%). In adjusted analyses, male gender, younger age, living in urban areas, mixed-ancestry or white ethnicity (compared to black-African), and unemployment were positively associated with recent drug use. Recent drug use was associated with: multiple sexual partners (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2·13, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1·80-2·51); sexual debut before 15 years old (aOR 1·70, 95%CI: 1·29-2·23); hazardous/harmful alcohol use (aOR 2·50, 95%CI: 2·14-2·93) or alcohol dependence (aOR 3·33, 95%CI 2·92-3·80); ever experiencing intimate partner violence (aOR 1·56, 95%CI 1·12-2·17); psychological distress (aOR 1·53, 95%CI: 1·28-1·82); and lower chance of ever testing for HIV (aOR 0·89, 95%CI 0·80-1·00). Recent drug use was not associated with HIV positivity, condom use or being on antiretroviral therapy. CONCLUSION: Illicit drug use has increased substantially in South Africa and is associated with numerous socio-demographic characteristics, higher sexual risk behaviours and other well-being variables.

Investigating the Associations between Drought, Poverty, High-Risk Sexual Behaviours, and HIV Incidence in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Cross-Sectional Study.

Climate change is increasing the likelihood of drought in sub-Saharan Africa, where HIV prevalence is high. Drought could increase HIV transmission through various mediating mechanisms; we investigated these associations. We used data on people aged 15-59 from Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment surveys from 2016 in Eswatini, Lesotho, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia. Survey data were geospatially linked to precipitation data for 2014-2016, with local droughts defined as cumulative rainfall between 2014 and 2016 being in < 15th percentile of all 2-year periods over 1981-2016. Using multivariable logistic regression, stratified by sex and rural/urban residence, we examined associations between (a) drought and poverty, (b) wealth quintiles and sexual behaviours (transactional, high-risk, and intergenerational sex), (c) sexual behaviours and recently acquiring HIV, and (d) drought and recent HIV. Among 102,081 people, 31.5% resided in areas affected by drought during 2014-2016. Experiencing drought was positively associated with poverty for women and men in rural, but not urban, areas. For each group, increasing wealth was negatively associated with transactional sex. For rural women, intergenerational sex was positively associated with wealth. Women reporting each sexual behaviour had higher odds of recent HIV, with strong associations seen for high-risk sex, and, for urban women, intergenerational sex, with weaker associations among men. Women in rural areas who had been exposed to drought had higher odds of having recently acquired HIV (2.10 [95%CI: 1.17-3.77]), but not women in urban areas, or men. Droughts could potentially increase HIV transmission through increasing poverty and then sexual risk behaviours, particularly among women in rural areas.

Increasing age and duration of sex work among female sex workers in South Africa and implications for HIV incidence estimation: Bayesian evidence synthesis and simulation exercise.

Introduction: In sub-Saharan Africa, accurate estimates of the HIV epidemic in female sex workers are crucial for effective prevention and care strategies. These estimates are typically derived from mathematical models that assume certain demographic and behavioural characteristics like age and duration of sex work to remain constant over time. We reviewed this assumption for female sex workers in South Africa. Methods: We reviewed studies that reported estimates on either the age or the duration of sex work among female sex workers in South Africa. We used Bayesian hierarchical models to synthesize reported estimates and to study time trends. In a simulation exercise, we also investigated the potential impact of the "constant age and sex work duration"-assumption on estimates of HIV incidence. Results: We included 24 different studies, conducted between 1996 and 2019, contributing 42 estimates on female sex worker age and 27 estimates on sex work duration. There was evidence suggesting an increase in both the duration of sex work and the age of female sex workers over time. According to the fitted models, over each decade the expected duration of sex work increased by 55.6% (95%-credible interval [CrI]: 23.5%-93.9%) and the expected age of female sex workers increased by 14.3% (95%-CrI: 9.1%-19.1%). Over the 23-year period, the predicted mean duration of sex work increased from 2.7 years in 1996 to 7.4 years in 2019, while the predicted mean age increased from 26.4 years to 32.3 years. Allowing for these time trends in the simulation exercise resulted in a notable decline in estimated HIV incidence rate among sex workers over time. This decline was significantly more pronounced than when assuming a constant age and duration of sex work. Conclusions: In South Africa, age and duration of sex work in female sex workers increased over time. While this trend might be influenced by factors like expanding community mobilization and improved rights advocacy, the ongoing criminalisation, stigmatisation of sex work and lack of alternative employment opportunities could also be contributing. It is important to account for these changes when estimating HIV indicators in female sex workers.

Updated Data and Methods for the 2023 UNAIDS HIV Estimates.

ABSTRACT: Each year, supported by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS), country teams across the globe produce estimates that chart the state of their HIV epidemics. In 2023, HIV estimates were available for 174 countries, accounting for 99% of the global population, of which teams from 150 countries actively engaged in this process. The methods used to derive these estimates are developed under the guidance of the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modeling, and Projections (www.epidem.org). Updates to these methods and epidemiological analyses that inform parameters and assumptions are documented in this supplement.

New HIV Infections Among Key Populations and Their Partners in 2010 and 2022, by World Region: A Multisources Estimation.

BACKGROUND: Previously, The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS estimated proportions of adult new HIV infections among key populations (KPs) in the last calendar year, globally and in 8 regions. We refined and updated these, for 2010 and 2022, using country-level trend models informed by national data. METHODS: Infections among 15-49 year olds were estimated for sex workers (SWs), male clients of female SW, men who have sex with men (MSM), people who inject drugs (PWID), transgender women (TGW), and non-KP sex partners of these groups. Transmission models used were Goals (71 countries), AIDS Epidemic Model (13 Asian countries), Optima (9 European and Central Asian countries), and Thembisa (South Africa). Statistical Estimation and Projection Package fits were used for 15 countries. For 40 countries, new infections in 1 or more KPs were approximated from first-time diagnoses by the mode of transmission. Infection proportions among nonclient partners came from Goals, Optima, AIDS Epidemic Model, and Thembisa. For remaining countries and groups not represented in models, median proportions by KP were extrapolated from countries modeled within the same region. RESULTS: Across 172 countries, estimated proportions of new adult infections in 2010 and 2022 were both 7.7% for SW, 11% and 20% for MSM, 0.72% and 1.1% for TGW, 6.8% and 8.0% for PWID, 12% and 10% for clients, and 5.3% and 8.2% for nonclient partners. In sub-Saharan Africa, proportions of new HIV infections decreased among SW, clients, and non-KP partners but increased for PWID; elsewhere these groups' 2010-to-2022 differences were opposite. For MSM and TGW, the proportions increased across all regions. CONCLUSIONS: KPs continue to have disproportionately high HIV incidence.

Differences in Breastfeeding Duration by Maternal HIV Status: A Pooled Analysis of Nationally Representative Surveys in Sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: Breastfeeding improves child survival but is a source of mother-to-child HIV transmission among women with unsuppressed HIV infection. Estimated HIV incidence in children is sensitive to breastfeeding duration among mothers living with HIV (MLHIV). Breastfeeding duration may vary according to maternal HIV status. SETTING: Sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: We analyzed pooled data from nationally representative household surveys conducted during 2003-2019 that included HIV testing and elicited breastfeeding practices. We fitted survival models of breastfeeding duration by country, year, and maternal HIV status for 4 sub-Saharan African regions (Eastern, Central, Southern, and Western). RESULTS: Data were obtained from 65 surveys in 31 countries. In 2010, breastfeeding in the first month of life ("initial breastfeeding") among MLHIV ranged from 69.1% (95% credible interval: 68-79.9) in Southern Africa to 93.4% (92.7-98.0) in Western Africa. Median breastfeeding duration among MLHIV was the shortest in Southern Africa at 15.6 (14.2-16.3) months and the longest in Eastern Africa at 22.0 (21.7-22.5) months. By comparison, HIV-negative mothers were more likely to breastfeed initially (91.0%-98.7% across regions) and for longer duration (median 18.3-24.6 months across regions). Initial breastfeeding and median breastfeeding duration decreased during 2005-2015 in most regions and did not increase in any region regardless of maternal HIV status. CONCLUSIONS: MLHIV in sub-Saharan Africa are less likely to breastfeed initially and stop breastfeeding sooner than HIV-negative mothers. Since 2020, UNAIDS-supported HIV estimates have accounted for this shorter breastfeeding exposure among HIV-exposed children. MLHIV need support to enable optimal breastfeeding practices and to adhere to antiretroviral therapy for HIV treatment and prevention of postnatal mother-to-child transmission.

Estimation of Improvements in Mortality in Spectrum Among Adults With HIV Receiving Antiretroviral Therapy in High-Income Countries.

INTRODUCTION: Mortality rates for people living with HIV (PLHIV) on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in high-income countries continue to decline. We compared mortality rates among PLHIV on ART in Europe for 2016-2020 with Spectrum's estimates. METHODS: The AIDS Impact Module in Spectrum is a compartmental HIV epidemic model coupled with a demographic population projection model. We used national Spectrum projections developed for the 2022 HIV estimates round to calculate mortality rates among PLHIV on ART, adjusting to the age/country distribution of PLHIV starting ART from 1996 to 2020 in the Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration (ART-CC)'s European cohorts. RESULTS: In the ART-CC, 11,504 of 162,835 PLHIV died. Between 1996-1999 and 2016-2020, AIDS-related mortality in the ART-CC decreased from 8.8 (95% CI: 7.6 to 10.1) to 1.0 (0.9-1.2) and from 5.9 (4.4-8.1) to 1.1 (0.9-1.4) deaths per 1000 person-years among men and women, respectively. Non-AIDS-related mortality decreased from 9.1 (7.9-10.5) to 6.1 (5.8-6.5) and from 7.0 (5.2-9.3) to 4.8 (4.3-5.2) deaths per 1000 person-years among men and women, respectively. Adjusted all-cause mortality rates in Spectrum among men were near ART-CC estimates for 2016-2020 (Spectrum: 7.02-7.47 deaths per 1000 person-years) but approximately 20% lower in women (Spectrum: 4.66-4.70). Adjusted excess mortality rates in Spectrum were 2.5-fold higher in women and 3.1-3.4-fold higher in men in comparison to the ART-CC's AIDS-specific mortality rates. DISCUSSION: Spectrum's all-cause mortality estimates among PLHIV are consistent with age/country-controlled mortality observed in ART-CC, with some underestimation of mortality among women. Comparing results suggest that 60%-70% of excess deaths among PLHIV on ART in Spectrum are from non-AIDS causes.

Measuring HIV Acquisitions Among Partners of Key Populations: Estimates From HIV Transmission Dynamic Models.

BACKGROUND: Key populations (KPs), including female sex workers (FSWs), gay men and other men who have sex with men (MSM), people who inject drugs (PWID), and transgender women (TGW) experience disproportionate risks of HIV acquisition. The UNAIDS Global AIDS 2022 Update reported that one-quarter of all new HIV infections occurred among their non-KP sexual partners. However, this fraction relied on heuristics regarding the ratio of new infections that KPs transmitted to their non-KP partners to the new infections acquired among KPs (herein referred to as "infection ratios"). We recalculated these ratios using dynamic transmission models. SETTING: One hundred seventy-eight settings (106 countries). METHODS: Infection ratios for FSW, MSM, PWID, TGW, and clients of FSW were estimated from 12 models for 2020. RESULTS: Median model estimates of infection ratios were 0.7 (interquartile range: 0.5-1.0; n = 172 estimates) and 1.2 (0.8-1.8; n = 127) for acquisitions from FSW clients and transmissions from FSW to all their non-KP partners, respectively, which were comparable with the previous UNAIDS assumptions (0.2-1.5 across regions). Model estimates for female partners of MSM were 0.5 (0.2-0.8; n = 20) and 0.3 (0.2-0.4; n = 10) for partners of PWID across settings in Eastern and Southern Africa, lower than the corresponding UNAIDS assumptions (0.9 and 0.8, respectively). The few available model estimates for TGW were higher [5.1 (1.2-7.0; n = 8)] than the UNAIDS assumptions (0.1-0.3). Model estimates for non-FSW partners of FSW clients in Western and Central Africa were high (1.7; 1.0-2.3; n = 29). CONCLUSIONS: Ratios of new infections among non-KP partners relative to KP were high, confirming the importance of better addressing prevention and treatment needs among KP as central to reducing overall HIV incidence.

Temporal Trends and Determinants of HIV Testing at Antenatal Care in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Pooled Analysis of Population-Based Surveys (2005-2021).

BACKGROUND: In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), integrating HIV testing into antenatal care (ANC) has been crucial toward reducing mother-to-child transmission of HIV. With the introduction of new testing modalities, we explored temporal trends in HIV testing within and outside of ANC and identified sociodemographic determinants of testing during ANC. METHODS: We analyzed data from 139 nationally representative household surveys conducted between 2005 and 2021, including more than 2.2 million women aged 15-49 years in 41 SSA countries. We extracted data on women's recent HIV testing history (<24 months), by modality (ie, at ANC versus outside of ANC) and sociodemographic variables (ie, age, socioeconomic status, education level, number of births, urban/rural). We used Bayesian generalized linear mixed models to estimate HIV testing coverage and the proportion of those that tested as part of ANC. RESULTS: HIV testing coverage (<24 months) increased substantially between 2005 and 2021 from 8% to 38%, with significant variations between countries and subregions. Two percent of women received an HIV test in the 24 months preceding the survey interview as part of ANC in 2005 and 11% in 2021. Among women who received an HIV test in the 24 months preceding the survey, the probability of testing at ANC was significantly greater for multiparous, adolescent girls, rural women, women in the poorest wealth quintile, and women in West and Central Africa. CONCLUSION: ANC testing remains an important component to achieving high levels of HIV testing coverage and benefits otherwise underserved women, which could prove instrumental to progress toward universal knowledge of HIV status in SSA.