Influence of anthropic changes and environmental characteristics on the occurrence of Tegumentary Leishmaniasis in Montes Claros, Minas Gerais, Brazil, between 2012 and 2019.

This is an ecological study that investigated the influence of environmental, socioeconomic characteristics and changes in land use and cover on the occurrence of Tegumentary Leishmaniasis (TL) in the city of Montes Claros. The relationships between the number of cases of TL, which occurred between 2012 and 2019, in each census sector and the standardized covariates (Number of properties, altitude, Brazilian Deprivation Index, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), proportion of sector (PS) deforested, PS that underwent other anthropic alterations and unaltered PS) were evaluated with ecological Bayesian Models. Four multivariate models were constructed, with similar quality of adjustments, but Model 1 was the most parsimonious. Model 1 revealed that for each one-unit increase of standard deviation (SD) in the log of the number of properties, at the altitude and root of the deforested PS, corresponds to an increase of 44%, 34% and 24.5% in the number of cases of TL, respectively. The variable NDVI, included in models 3 and 4, was positively associated with the increase in the number of TL cases, being that for each one-unit increase in the NDVI was verified an increase of 21.3% and 20.2% respectively in the models. This study showed that the spatial distribution of TL cases in the city of Montes Claros occurs in a heterogeneous way and our findings support the hypothesis that socio-environmental characteristics and deforestation influence the occurrence of this disease in the studied area. Thus, these factors must be considered for the development of disease control strategies.

American Tegumentary Leishmaniasis in an endemic municipality in the North of Minas Gerais State: spatial analysis and socio-environmental factors.

American Tegumentary Leishmaniasis (ATL) is endemic in the municipality of Montes Claros, Minas Gerais State. The use of geotechnology such as spatial statistics and remote sensing has contributed to a better understanding of the eco-epidemiology of diseases, and consequently a better definition of control strategies. This study aimed to analyze the spatial distribution of probable sites of cases of ATL infection (2007-2011) in the municipality of Montes Claros and to identify related socio-environmental factors. Data on ATL cases notification were obtained from the Municipal Health Department of Montes Claros. The annual incidence of ATL in the municipality was calculated and the probable sites of infection were georeferenced. Crude Rate and the Local Empirical Bayesian Rate were calculated with census sectors considered as the unit of analysis. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was calculated from LANDSAT 5 TM images. The spatial association between the crude rate of ATL and the NDVI of the census tracts was evaluated using the Local Bivariate of Moran I. The socio-environmental aspects of household structures were assessed based on a structured questionnaire. The incidence of ATL in the evaluated period ranged from 6.2 to 16.6 cases/100,000 inhabitants. The highest rates of ATL occurrence were found in the census sectors located in the rural area and in the peripheral census sectors in the city. Through the Empirical Bayes Smoothed Rate map, it was found that in the peripheral areas of the city, the rates of ATL occurrence were lower than in the rural area and their values decreased as they approach the city center. Local Bivariate of Moran I showed a positive correlation between NDVI and crude ATL rates, with significant high-high clusters observed in the rural area and in the census sectors in the Western peripheral area of the city that have experienced an urban expansion concomitant to the period investigated. In most homes of people affected by the disease, there were domestic animals and organic matter in the peridomicile. In addition, a high percentage of individuals affected by ATL reported the presence of rodents circulating near their homes. In conclusion, it is possible that the disorderly expansion process in the city of Montes Claros favored the establishment of the ATL periurban and urban transmission cycle. These regions deserve special attention from health surveillance to combat this zoonosis.