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1.
Cancer ; 86(6): 957-68, 1999 Sep 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-10491521

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Interferon (IFN) has demonstrated activity in the treatment of patients with multiple myeloma. A previous Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) study suggested that the rates of complete response (CR) and survival were increased with a regimen that alternated IFN with chemotherapy. The current study was designed to evaluate the effect of adding alternating cycles of IFN or early intensification with high dose cyclophosphamide (HiCy) to the VBMCP regimen for the treatment of multiple myeloma patients. METHODS: From February 1988 to May 1992, the ECOG entered previously untreated patients with active multiple myeloma on a study in which they were randomized to VBMCP (vincristine 1.2 mg/m(2) administered intravenously [i.v.] on Day 1, BCNU 20 mg/m(2) i.v. on Day 1, melphalan 8 mg/m(2) administered orally [p.o.] on Days 1-4, cyclophosphamide 400 mg/m(2) i.v. on Day 1, and prednisone 40 mg/m(2) p.o. on Days 1-7; 5-week cycles) or VBMCP + rIFN(alpha2), the latter given at 5 Mu/m(2) 3 times a week starting on Day 22 of each 6-week cycle after 2 initial cycles of VBMCP. Patients younger than 70 years were also randomized to a third treatment that substituted cyclophosphamide 600 mg/m(2) i.v. on Days 1-4 and prednisone 100 mg/m(2) p.o. on Days 1-4 for cycles 3 and 5 of VBMCP (VBMCP + HiCy). Treatment was continued for 2 years. RESULTS: Of the 653 patients entered, 628 were eligible for the study. All were evaluated for response. With median follow-up for surviving patients of 54 months, the median survival duration was 42 months-1 year longer than usually reported for melphalan combined with prednisone. A comparison of the three regimens revealed no significant difference in the rates of survival or objective response (OR). However, CRs were increased among patients treated with VBMCP + rIFN(alpha2) compared with VBMCP alone (18% vs. 10%, P = 0.03). Patients treated with VBMCP + rIFN(alpha2) had a longer response duration than patients treated with VBMCP alone (30 vs. 25 months, P = 0.035). There was a greater response rate with the IFN regimen among elderly patients (OR and CR = 67% and 31%, respectively) and patients with immunoglobulin A (IgA) myeloma (OR and CR = 83% and 29%, respectively). Severe infections were seen as often with VBMCP as with VBMCP + rIFN(alpha2) (13% vs. 15%), but they were more frequent with VBMCP + HiCy (25%). CONCLUSIONS: VBMCP + rIFN(alpha2) yields a higher rate of CR and a longer response duration than VBMCP alone but appears to make no difference in the rates of overall response or survival compared with VBMCP or VBMCP + HiCy. The superior ability of VBMCP + rIFN(alpha2) induction therapy to produce CR and more durable responses, as well as its activity in older patients and in those with IgA myeloma, suggest that this therapy has important biologic activity in myeloma and merits further clinical investigation.


Subject(s)
Antineoplastic Combined Chemotherapy Protocols/therapeutic use , Multiple Myeloma/drug therapy , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Antineoplastic Combined Chemotherapy Protocols/adverse effects , Cardiovascular Diseases/chemically induced , Carmustine/administration & dosage , Cyclophosphamide/administration & dosage , Hematologic Diseases/chemically induced , Humans , Infections/chemically induced , Interferon Type I/administration & dosage , Melphalan/administration & dosage , Middle Aged , Prednisone/administration & dosage , Recombinant Proteins , Survival Analysis , Vincristine/administration & dosage
3.
Leuk Lymphoma ; 13(5-6): 485-9, 1994 May.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-8069193

ABSTRACT

There is strong evidence that corticosteroids contribute to the objective and subjective response rate observed following treatment with several cytotoxic chemotherapy agents, and that there is a dose response effect for treatment of multiple myeloma with alkylating agents. Therefore, the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) studied cyclophosphamide 600 mg/M2 given for four consecutive days intravenously combined with prednisone 100 mg orally daily in 57 patients who had progressed following or failed to respond to standard doses of these drugs. Forty eight patients met the eligibility criteria for evaluation of response and toxicity. Fourteen patients (29%) had an objective response (OR) and an additional 2 (4%) had a subjective response (SR) only. The median duration of objective response was 3.1 months and estimated median survival was 8.6 months. These results are identical to our prior experience with high dose cyclophosphamide alone. The addition of prednisone does not appear to enhance results either through increased remissions or greater survival. Therefore, this study indicates that the preferred form of high dose cyclophosphamide for multiple myeloma is as a single agent given in intravenous four day courses.


Subject(s)
Antineoplastic Combined Chemotherapy Protocols/therapeutic use , Multiple Myeloma/drug therapy , Administration, Oral , Adult , Aged , Antineoplastic Combined Chemotherapy Protocols/adverse effects , Cyclophosphamide/administration & dosage , Dose-Response Relationship, Drug , Drug Administration Schedule , Female , Humans , Infusions, Intravenous , Male , Middle Aged , Prednisone/administration & dosage
4.
Cancer ; 73(8): 2113-8, 1994 Apr 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-8156516

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: This study was designed to examine the efficacy and toxicity of high-dose cyclophosphamide (CY), and to evaluate the potential added effect of vincristine (VCR) given at a theoretic time of malignant cell stimulation in a group of patients with multiple myeloma, refractory to or relapsing after, treatment with standard doses of chemotherapy. METHODS: Patients were randomly assigned to receive CY 2400 mg per M2 as a single-day dose and VCR 1.4 mg per M2 given on Day 1 or Day 9 after the CY. RESULTS: There were 108 cases suitable for analysis. No difference in objective response (17.6%, 23.5%), subjective response, remission duration, or survival was observed in the two treatment arms. CONCLUSIONS: The authors conclude that a single, high dose of cyclophosphamide is more toxic and provides equal or less response than the equivalent dose given over 4 consecutive days and that no improved effect was detected using timed-sequential therapy with VCR.


Subject(s)
Antineoplastic Combined Chemotherapy Protocols/therapeutic use , Multiple Myeloma/drug therapy , Aged , Antineoplastic Combined Chemotherapy Protocols/adverse effects , Cell Cycle/physiology , Cyclophosphamide/administration & dosage , Cyclophosphamide/adverse effects , Dose-Response Relationship, Drug , Drug Administration Schedule , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Vincristine/administration & dosage , Vincristine/adverse effects
5.
MD Comput ; 11(2): 83-91, 1994.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-8201891

ABSTRACT

In the mid-1970s, the medical and administrative staff of the Oncology Center at Johns Hopkins Hospital recognized a need for a computer-based clinical decision-support system that organized patients' information according to the care continuum, rather than as a series of event-specific data. This is especially important in cancer patients, because of the long periods in which they receive complex medical treatment and the enormous amounts of data generated by extremely ill patients with multiple interrelated diseases. During development of the Oncology Clinical Information System (OCIS), it became apparent that administrative services, research systems, ancillary functions (such as drug and blood product ordering), and financial processes should be integrated with the basic patient-oriented database. With the structured approach used in applications development, new modules were added as the need for additional functions arose. The system has since been moved to a modern network environment with the capacity for client-server processing.


Subject(s)
Decision Support Techniques , Medical Records Systems, Computerized , Medical Records, Problem-Oriented , Neoplasms/therapy , Therapy, Computer-Assisted , Artificial Intelligence , Expert Systems , Humans , Oncology Service, Hospital , Software
6.
Cancer ; 72(9 Suppl): 2820-3, 1993 Nov 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-8402511

ABSTRACT

Clinical trials are a major commitment for a university-based comprehensive cancer center. In 1992, The Johns Hopkins Hospital registered 3508 new patients with cancer and, from this large population, 2880 patients were entered in clinical trials (many patients participated in more than one protocol). The Oncology Center, one of many departments at Johns Hopkins that conducts clinical research, participates in phase I and II new drug trials, phase III comparative studies, and, increasingly, in epidemiologic and prevention research. This calls for much broader participation by community hospitals and for many more patients who normally would not come to Johns Hopkins for their care. There are more than 100 protocols available from the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group, but Johns Hopkins may participate in no more than 20 at any given time. Thus, every research facility must be selective about the trials in which it participates, given the finite number of hours, dollars, and resources available to carry out these programs. The institution provides safeguards to protect the interest of the patient. These include review and annual overseeing of the concept, design, and specifics of the proposed study. The pharmacy and nursing staff play an important role in control of chemotherapy distribution and use. Patients and physicians, however, must understand the questions the study is asking and agree that they are worth answering. There are problems in motivation; information; costs to the patient, hospital, insurers, and the physician; the concept of the placebo; and informed consent. Clinical research is the most ethical way to test drugs, radiation therapy, surgical procedures, or other new treatments. The clinical trial must meet rigorous criteria of design, conduct, and analysis. The patient must understand the issues and be a volunteer. We must make every effort to help patients and physicians get information about clinical trials and to participate if they choose.


Subject(s)
Clinical Trials as Topic/standards , Hospitals, University/standards , Neoplasms/therapy , Oncology Service, Hospital/standards , Patient Advocacy , Baltimore , Clinical Trials as Topic/economics , Hospital Bed Capacity, 500 and over , Hospital-Patient Relations , Hospitals, Private/standards , Humans , Informed Consent
8.
J Med Syst ; 15(3): 237-47, 1991 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-1804925

ABSTRACT

The Johns Hopkins Hospital has developed AUTRES, an electronic discharge summary. This computer generated report was designed to provide improved continuity in the care of patients by offering a legible, standardized summary of the events of hospitalization. It can be sent by mail, FAX, or electronically (computer-to-computer) to the next care giver who will see the patient. It is available from any network attached terminal at the hospital and School of Medicine to support re-admission to the hospital, treatment in the emergency room, or outpatient visits. AUTRES first ran in fully supported production serving the Department of Medicine in 1988. Re-engineered to take advantage of cooperative processing, it has been implemented in Neurology, Internal Medicine, Obstetrics and Gynecology and Pediatrics, with plans for phased installation in the remaining clinical departments of The Johns Hopkins Hospital.


Subject(s)
Computer Communication Networks , Continuity of Patient Care/organization & administration , Hospital Information Systems , Medical Records Systems, Computerized , Patient Discharge , Baltimore , Data Display , Hospital Bed Capacity, 500 and over , Hospitals, University/organization & administration , Humans , Software Design
9.
J Med Syst ; 14(5): 227-43, 1990 Oct.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-2094750

ABSTRACT

New computer tools for physicians, nurses, and the medical care team will become common in the 1990s. This paper describes a clinical workstation (CWS) development project that uses new technology that moves the technical support for medical decision making from the computer room to the nursing station. Collection, processing, and display of clinical information including patient identification, laboratory, and radiology results and current medications are carried out in the environment of a multi-windowed computer workstation. Easy access to automated medical literature databases from the workstation is also provided. This pilot project has successfully demonstrated a CWS operating on an acute general neurology and neurosurgical inpatient nursing unit and a critical care unit at The Johns Hopkins Hospital.


Subject(s)
Clinical Medicine/organization & administration , Computer Systems , Hospital Information Systems , Baltimore , Hospital Bed Capacity, 500 and over , Hospital Units/organization & administration , Online Systems , Pilot Projects , User-Computer Interface
10.
J Clin Oncol ; 5(10): 1640-5, 1987 Oct.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-3655862

ABSTRACT

Twenty-one comprehensive cancer centers participated in a national reporting system of common data items, recording information on all patients seen between 1977 and 1982. There were 240,531 patients who had data abstracted. This report describes 1,479 patients with multiple myeloma. Parameters that may effect the type of treatment given during the initial episode of therapy in the center and the effect of these characteristics on survival were studied. In the univariate analysis, age, treatment, and distance traveled to the center were statistically associated with survival. In a multivariate analysis adjusting for potentially confounding covariates, blacks survive better than whites and the effects of sex and socioeconomic status (SES) on survival approach significance. Survival consistently improved with increasing distance traveled to treatment centers. This may be a serious confounding variable in assessing the results by both single and multiinstitution clinical trials.


Subject(s)
Delivery of Health Care , Medical Oncology/methods , Multiple Myeloma/therapy , Adult , Age Factors , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Analysis of Variance , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Multiple Myeloma/mortality , Racial Groups , Risk Factors , Sex Factors , Socioeconomic Factors , United States
11.
Cancer Treat Rep ; 71(9): 807-11, 1987 Sep.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-3113729

ABSTRACT

The Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group evaluated hexamethylmelamine in 89 patients with advanced refractory or relapsing multiple myeloma. Hexamethylmelamine was initially used as a single agent administered orally at 200 mg/m2/day for the first 3 weeks of each 4-week cycle. When this regimen proved to be ineffective, it was modified first by increasing the dose of hexamethylmelamine to 280 mg/m2/day and subsequently by adding prednisone at 75 mg for the first 7 days of each 28-day cycle. None of the 39 patients receiving hexamethylmelamine without prednisone had an objective response, while two patients had minimal objective improvement (25%-50% decrease in M protein with symptomatic improvement). Only 14% of these patients had objective or symptomatic response or both. In contrast, patients treated with hexamethylmelamine plus prednisone had a 22% objective response rate, with another 14% showing lesser degrees of objective improvement. Fifty-one percent of the patients treated with this regimen had either objective or symptomatic improvement or both. Severe (grade 3) toxicity was seen in nearly two-thirds of the patients on the higher-dose hexamethylmelamine regimens compared with 37% of the patients receiving low-dose hexamethylmelamine; however, in most instances this represented rapidly reversible cytopenias. Because all but one of the patients responding to hexamethylmelamine plus prednisone had experienced previous treatment failure on regimens containing prednisone in similar dose and schedules, it is unlikely that the responses are due to prednisone alone. Instead, this study suggests that the activity of hexamethylmelamine in multiple myeloma is dependent on the concomitant administration of prednisone and that the combination regimen appears to be synergistic.


Subject(s)
Altretamine/therapeutic use , Multiple Myeloma/drug therapy , Prednisone/therapeutic use , Triazines/therapeutic use , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Altretamine/adverse effects , Clinical Trials as Topic , Drug Synergism , Drug Therapy, Combination , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Multiple Myeloma/mortality , Prednisone/adverse effects , Pyridoxine/adverse effects , Pyridoxine/therapeutic use
12.
J Clin Oncol ; 3(10): 1296-300, 1985 Oct.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-4045523

ABSTRACT

Thirty-eight patients with advanced, progressive Hodgkin's disease who had relapsed from or who had not responded to treatment with at least two potentially curative combination chemotherapy regimens were entered into this phase 2 study. All patients received 131I antiferritin antibody administered intravenously (IV) at a dose of 30 mCi on day 0 and 20 mCi on day 5. Antibody was derived from rabbit, pig, and monkey species. Objective partial remission of measurable disease was recorded in 40% of patients. Symptomatic response was recorded in 77% of patients. Toxicity was restricted to bone marrow depression with thrombocytopenia greater than leukopenia. These responses are comparable to other reported phase 2 drugs in this patient population and subsequent trials of antibody free of radioactivity and antibody using a beta emitting isotope are being carried out to expand upon these results.


Subject(s)
Antibodies, Neoplasm/therapeutic use , Ferritins/immunology , Hodgkin Disease/therapy , Adult , Antibodies, Neoplasm/adverse effects , Female , Gallium Radioisotopes , Hodgkin Disease/diagnostic imaging , Hodgkin Disease/immunology , Humans , Iodine Radioisotopes , Leukopenia/etiology , Male , Neoplasm Recurrence, Local/diagnostic imaging , Prognosis , Radionuclide Imaging , Thrombocytopenia/etiology
13.
14.
Cancer ; 53(7): 1456-60, 1984 Apr 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-6697291

ABSTRACT

The Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group evaluated cyclophosphamide 600 mg/m2 intravenously daily X 4 (total dose each cycle 2400 mg/m2) as an aggressive approach to the treatment of patients with advanced multiple myeloma. The overall objective response rate is 43%. This includes a 38% response rate for all previously treated patients and a 29% response rate for patients refractory to prior therapy with cyclophosphamide. The objective response duration was 3 months and the survival of responding patients 9 months. A subjective response rate of 63% was observed, characterized by effective pain relief and improved performance. Sixty-nine percent of patients experienced leukocyte cell nadirs less than 500/mm2 with a mean time to marrow recovery of 17 days. Thrombocytopenia was less severe but required platelet transfusion in 43% of patients. Bone marrow toxicity was encountered in all patients, and death in aplasia is a significant risk. Strict adherence to entry criteria, and a systematic plan for hospitalization for antibiotic and blood component support is required for treatment with this regimen.


Subject(s)
Cyclophosphamide/administration & dosage , Multiple Myeloma/drug therapy , Alopecia/chemically induced , Drug Administration Schedule , Drug Evaluation , Humans , Injections, Intravenous , Leukopenia/chemically induced , Multiple Myeloma/pathology , Nausea/chemically induced , Thrombocytopenia/chemically induced , Time Factors
15.
Comput Biol Med ; 14(1): 15-23, 1984.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-6370578

ABSTRACT

The Johns Hopkins Oncology Center has developed OCIS , a computer based data system to aid medical personnel in making clinical decisions. All patients seen in the Center are entered into the system. Data is collected, analyzed and presented in formats designed to show the relationship between related clinical and laboratory data. Graphic plots are used to facilitate the detection of long and short term trends in the changing clinical status of individual patients. The system also provides major support for clinical research. An example of the use of this system is presented using data from patients with multiple myeloma.


Subject(s)
Diagnosis, Computer-Assisted , Medical Oncology/methods , Humans , Information Systems , Multiple Myeloma/complications , Multiple Myeloma/diagnosis , Multiple Myeloma/therapy , Prognosis
16.
JAMA ; 250(24): 3310-6, 1983.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-6645028

ABSTRACT

The Johns Hopkins Oncology Center, Baltimore, has carried out a pilot study of a method of data collection and analysis to be used for planning and evaluation of continuing education programs conducted in the Maryland region. This study includes definition of techniques used to prepare a test instrument that will accurately reflect actual medical practice within a hospital. The system has been field tested in three diseases, cancer of the lung, breast, and uterine cervix, in two Maryland hospitals. The system appears to be an efficient and inexpensive method for definition of decision making in specific clinical settings and for measurement of change if serial reassessment is instituted.


Subject(s)
Breast Neoplasms/therapy , Education, Medical, Continuing , Lung Neoplasms/therapy , Medical Audit , Medical Oncology/education , Uterine Cervical Neoplasms/therapy , Breast Neoplasms/diagnosis , Decision Making , Educational Measurement , Female , Humans , Lung Neoplasms/diagnosis , Pilot Projects , Uterine Cervical Neoplasms/diagnosis
17.
Cancer ; 52(9): 1684-90, 1983 Nov 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-6311401

ABSTRACT

Clinical correlates with urinary excretion of polyamines were evaluated for 29 newly diagnosed and 35 previously treated patients with small cell carcinoma of the lung (SCC). The frequencies of pretreatment abnormalities were 12 (41%) for putrescine, 18 (62%) for spermidine, and 20 (69%) for spermine. In assessing disease parameters, the combined use of the abnormalities of spermidine and spermine as a discriminant was more effective than that of all three polyamines; it correlated significantly with extent of limited and extensive disease (P less than 0.001), and also resulted in significant separation of survival curves, the median survival of 11 months for both elevated compared to 19 months for neither or only one elevated (P = 0.062). No significant difference was seen in the abnormalities between no metastasis and one metastasis, whereas the frequencies of the abnormalities was highly increased in two or more metastases. The distribution of polyamines determined at regular treatment intervals showed distinctively more elevated patterns in progressive disease than in stable disease or partial and complete responses (P less than 0.01). In order to evaluate therapeutic effects on the relationship between polyamine excretion and tumor regression, correlations between urinary putrescine and spermidine were determined. The values of the ratio of spermidine to putrescine were significantly smaller in responders than in nonresponders (P less than 0.01); and these may be related to smaller tumor mass and higher tumor proliferative activity in responders, and larger tumor mass and lower tumor proliferative activity in nonresponders.


Subject(s)
Carcinoma, Small Cell/pathology , Lung Neoplasms/pathology , Polyamines/urine , Carcinoma, Small Cell/therapy , Carcinoma, Small Cell/urine , Creatinine/urine , Humans , Lung Neoplasms/therapy , Lung Neoplasms/urine , Neoplasm Metastasis , Putrescine/urine , Regression Analysis , Spermidine/urine , Spermine/urine , Time Factors
18.
Int J Radiat Oncol Biol Phys ; 9(10): 1451-7, 1983 Oct.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-6629888

ABSTRACT

Thoracic CT scans were performed on 42 newly diagnosed patients with Hodgkin's disease. Five of 10 patients with negative chest X ray (CXR) had abnormal thoracic CT scans. Among the remaining 32 patients with mediastinal Hodgkin's disease (MHD) on CXR, pericardial (Ep) and chest wall invasion (Ec) were the two most common sites of involvement which were detectable by CT scan alone. All 14 cases with Ep had M/T greater than or equal to 0.30 and 14 of 21 with M/T greater than or equal to 0.30 had Ep. Six cases had extensive Ec. Ep and Ec accounted for 16 of 19 of the changes in treatment portal or philosophy based on CT scan findings. Because of the high risk of cardiac or pulmonary radiation toxicity in Ep or Ec, radiation treatment alone may be inadequate. Treatment of mediastinal Hodgkin's disease is reviewed here. The use of CT scans for identification of Ep, Ec, and other abnormalities will allow for more precise treatment, further define the use of conventional radiotherapy, combined modality therapy or whole lung irradiation, and allow more accurate analysis of treatment results.


Subject(s)
Hodgkin Disease/diagnostic imaging , Mediastinal Neoplasms/diagnostic imaging , Tomography, X-Ray Computed , Combined Modality Therapy , Hodgkin Disease/drug therapy , Hodgkin Disease/radiotherapy , Humans , Mediastinal Neoplasms/drug therapy , Mediastinal Neoplasms/radiotherapy , Neoplasm Staging , Radiography, Thoracic/methods , Radiotherapy Dosage
19.
Cancer Res ; 43(6): 3013-7, 1983 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-6303572

ABSTRACT

Tumor volumes measured at the time of initial therapy, during the 28 days following treatment, and following subsequent courses of therapy for 29 patients with small cell carcinoma of the lung were determined from serially measurable roentgenographic lesions. Tumor-halving times were calculated following initial therapy, and the proportions of pretreatment tumor volumes were evaluated within 28 days after initial therapy for 26 patients. Pretreatment tumor volumes ranged from 22.5 to 485 cu cm, with a median of 87 cu cm, a log mean of 83 cu cm, and a linear mean of 113 cu cm. The tumor-halving times ranged from 4 to 86 days, with a median of 12 days, a log mean of 12 days, and a linear mean of 16 days. The reduction of tumor volume expressed as a proportion of pretreatment volume following therapy ranged between 0.02 and 0.65, with a median value of 0.22, a log mean of 0.18, and a linear mean of 0.26. Using the linear mean of 0.26 as a discriminant for survival analysis, patients with less than 0.26 had a median duration of survival of 12 months, which was significantly longer (p = 0.035) than the median survival of 8 months for patients with greater than 0.26. Tumor-halving time of 16 days was also able to separate the survival durations of 12 months of those less than 16 days compared to 8 months for greater than 16 days (p = 0.0429). Tumor regression rate, determined from two consecutive tumor volume measurements, was correlated with the tumor volume (r = 0.677; p less than 0.0001); and volume dependency of the tumor regression rate, as specified in Gompertzian kinetics, was demonstrated.


Subject(s)
Carcinoma, Small Cell/drug therapy , Lung Neoplasms/drug therapy , Carcinoma, Small Cell/pathology , Humans , Lung Neoplasms/pathology , Mathematics , Models, Biological , Prognosis
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