Spousal bereavement and its effects on later life physical and cognitive capability: the Tromsø study.

Spousal bereavement is associated with health declines and increased mortality risk, but its specific impact on physical and cognitive capabilities is less studied. A historical cohort study design was applied including married Tromsø study participants (N=5739) aged 50-70 years with baseline self-reported overall health and health-related factors and measured capability (grip strength, finger tapping, digit symbol coding, and short-term recall) at follow-up. Participants had data from Tromsø4 (1994-1995) and Tromsø5 (2001), or Tromsø6 (2007-2008) and Tromsø7 (2015-2016). Propensity score matching, adjusted for baseline confounders (and baseline capability in a subset), was used to investigate whether spousal bereavement was associated with poorer subsequent capability. Spousal bereavement occurred for 6.2% on average 3.7 years (SD 2.0) before the capability assessment. There were no significant bereavement effects on subsequent grip strength, immediate recall, or finger-tapping speed. Without adjustment for baseline digit symbol coding test performance, there was a negative significant effect on the digit symbol coding test (ATT -1.33; 95% confidence interval -2.57, -0.10), but when baseline digit symbol coding test performance was taken into account in a smaller subsample, using the same set of matching confounders, there was no longer any association (in the subsample ATT changed from -1.29 (95% CI -3.38, 0.80) to -0.04 (95% CI -1.83, 1.75). The results in our study suggest that spousal bereavement does not have long-term effects on the intrinsic capacity components physical or cognition capability to a notable degree.

Effectiveness of integrated person-centered interventions for older people's care: Review of Swedish experiences and experts' perspective.

Older adults have multiple medical and social care needs, requiring a shift toward an integrated person-centered model of care. Our objective was to describe and summarize Swedish experiences of integrated person-centered care by reviewing studies published between 2000 and 2023, and to identify the main challenges and scientific gaps through expert discussions. Seventy-three publications were identified by searching MEDLINE and contacting experts. Interventions were categorized using two World Health Organization frameworks: (1) Integrated Care for Older People (ICOPE), and (2) Integrated People-Centered Health Services (IPCHS). The included 73 publications were derived from 31 unique and heterogeneous interventions pertaining mainly to the micro- and meso-levels. Among publications measuring mortality, 15% were effective. Subjective health outcomes showed improvement in 24% of publications, morbidity outcomes in 42%, disability outcomes in 48%, and service utilization outcomes in 58%. Workshop discussions in Stockholm (Sweden), March 2023, were recorded, transcribed, and summarized. Experts emphasized: (1) lack of rigorous evaluation methods, (2) need for participatory designs, (3) scarcity of macro-level interventions, and (4) importance of transitioning from person- to people-centered integrated care. These challenges could explain the unexpected weak beneficial effects of the interventions on health outcomes, whereas service utilization outcomes were more positively impacted. Finally, we derived a list of recommendations, including the need to engage care organizations in interventions from their inception and to leverage researchers' scientific expertise. Although this review provides a comprehensive snapshot of interventions in the context of Sweden, the findings offer transferable perspectives on the real-world challenges encountered in this field.

Will your child take care of you in your old age? Unequal caregiving received by older parents from adult children in Sweden.

Intergenerational family care provided to older parents by adult children is growing and differs based on gender and socioeconomic status. Few studies consider these elements in relation to both the parent and their adult child, and little is known about the number of care tasks received even though those providing intensive levels of care are at risk of experiencing adverse consequences in their lives. This study uses data from the nationally representative 2011 Swedish Panel Study of Living Conditions of the Oldest Old (SWEOLD) and includes child-specific information from parents aged 76 years and above. Analyses used ordinal logistic regression and are presented as average marginal effects and predictive margins. Results show that parents in need of care report that one-third of all adult children in the sample provide care to three out of five of them. The care is most often non-intensive, yet nearly one in ten of all children provide more intensive care of two or more tasks. When adjusting for dyad characteristics as well as geographic proximity, results show adult-child gender differences where parents receive more care from manual-working-class daughters than manual-working-class sons. Overall, manual-working-class daughters are most commonly reported as carers among adult children, and they are particularly overrepresented in providing intensive care. We conclude that gender and socioeconomic inequalities exist among care receivers' adult children, even in a strong welfare state such as Sweden. Knowledge about levels and patterns of intergenerational care have important implications for how to reduce unequal caregiving.

Physical functioning as a predictor of retirement: Has its importance changed over a thirty-year period in Sweden?

Many countries, including Sweden, are implementing policies aimed at delaying retirement and encouraging older workers to remain on the labour market for longer. During recent decades, there have been several major reforms to the pension and social security systems in Sweden. Moreover, the nature of occupations has shifted towards more non-manual and sedentary activities, older women are today almost as active in the labour market as men in Sweden, and physical functioning has improved over time. In this study, we investigate whether the importance of physical functioning as a predictor for retirement has changed over time, for women and men, respectively. We used four waves of nationally representative data from The Swedish Level of Living Survey from 1981, 1991, 2000, and 2010, together with income register data. We found that greater severity of musculoskeletal pain and mobility limitations increased the likelihood of retirement in all waves. Results from logistic regression models with average marginal effects and predictive margins showed that there is a trend towards physical functioning becoming less important for retirement towards the end of the study period, especially for women, when controlling for occupational-based social class, age, adverse physical working conditions, and job demands. People, especially women, reporting impaired physical functioning did not retire to the same extent as in previous decades. This indicates that people stayed longer in the labour market despite impaired physical functioning, which may have repercussions on well-being and quality of life. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10433-022-00725-y.

Long-term risk factors for old-age social exclusion in Sweden: a 30-year longitudinal study.

PURPOSE OF THE RESEARCH: Social exclusion threatens quality of life in older age. However, there is a lack of research on social exclusion from life-course and gender perspectives. We investigated early- and midlife risk factors for old-age social exclusion among women and men. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Two individually linked studies of Swedish nationally representative samples provided longitudinal data over a 30-year period on 1,819 people at baseline. Indicators of economic exclusion, leisure/social exclusion, and civic exclusion were assessed at early late life (M=70 years) and late life (M=81). Educational attainment, non-employment, psychological health problems and mobility problems were measured as risk factors at midlife (M=54) and late midlife (M=61). Path analysis derived a model of old-age social exclusion. RESULTS: Exclusion on a domain in early late life led to exclusion on the same domain in late life, except for the economic domain. Leisure/social exclusion in early late life also led to civic exclusion in late life. Midlife risk factors influenced late-life exclusion almost exclusively through early late-life exclusion. While model fit could not be significantly improved by allowing coefficients to vary freely by gender, there was a stronger effect of non-employment on exclusion in women and a stronger effect of psychological health problems on exclusion in men. CONCLUSIONS: This study confirms that old-age exclusion is persistent and dynamic, and influenced by risk factors experienced earlier in life. A holistic approach with integrated efforts across different policy areas is needed to efficiently reduce old-age social exclusion.

A social exclusion perspective on loneliness in older adults in the Nordic countries.

Several factors associated with loneliness are also considered indicators of social exclusion. While loneliness has been proposed as an outcome of social exclusion, there is limited empirical evidence of a link. This study examines the associations between social exclusion indicators and loneliness in older adults (60+ years) in four Nordic countries. Data from four waves of the European Social Survey were pooled, providing a total of 7755 respondents (Denmark n = 1647; Finland n = 2501, Norway n = 1540; Sweden n = 2067). Measures of loneliness, demographic characteristics, health, and eight indicators of social exclusion were selected from the survey for analysis. Country-specific and total sample hierarchical logistic regression models of loneliness were developed. Significant model improvement occurred for all models after social exclusion indicators were added to models containing only demographic and health variables. Country models explained between 15.1 (Finland) and 21.5% (Sweden) of the variance in loneliness. Lower frequency of social contacts and living alone compared to in a two-person household was associated with a higher probability of loneliness in all countries, while other indicators were associated with loneliness in specific countries: lower neighbourhood safety (Sweden and Denmark); income concern (Sweden and Finland); and no emotional support (Denmark, Finland, and Sweden). A robust relationship was apparent between indicators of social exclusion and loneliness with the direction of associations being highly consistent across countries, even if their strength and statistical significance varied. Social exclusion has considerable potential for understanding and addressing risk factors for loneliness. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10433-022-00692-4.

The association between loneliness, social isolation and all-cause mortality in a nationally representative sample of older women and men.

OBJECTIVES: Individuals who feel lonely and those who are socially isolated have higher mortality risks than those who are not lonely or socially isolated. However, the importance of loneliness and social isolation for survival is rarely analysed in the same study or with consideration of gender differences. The aim was to examine the separate, mutually adjusted, and combined effects of loneliness and social isolation with mortality in older women and men. METHODS: Data from the SWEOLD study, a nationally representative sample of people aged 69+ years living in Sweden, was combined with register data on mortality and analysed using Cox regressions. RESULTS: Mortality was higher among older women and men with higher levels of loneliness or social isolation. Social isolation was more strongly associated with mortality than loneliness and the association remained when controlling for health. The combined effects of loneliness and social isolation did not surpass their independent effects. CONCLUSION: Loneliness and social isolation is associated with an increased mortality risk, and social integration should be a prioritised target for activities and services involving older adults.

How to Measure Retirement Age? A Comparison of Survey and Register Data.

Due to an increasing heterogeneity in retirement transitions, the measurement of retirement age constitutes a major challenge for researchers and policymakers. In order to better understand the concept of retirement age, we compare a series of measures for retirement age assessed on the basis of survey and register data. We use data from Sweden, where flexible retirement schemes are implemented and register data are available. We link survey data from the Swedish Level of Living Survey with register data from the Swedish Longitudinal Integration Database for Health Insurance and Labour Market Studies. We create four measures of retirement age based on these datasets, applying approaches that have been used in previous literature. We analyse the means and distributions of these measures and evaluate the correlations between them. Finally, we regress common predictors of retirement age such as gender or education on the four measures of retirement age to examine potential differences in size, direction and statistical significance of the associations. We find that the survey measure of retirement age resembles the following two ways of defining retirement age in the register data: first, the age at which people receive more than half their income from old-age or disability pension and, second, the age at which they were not gainfully employed for at least 2 years. This insight gives us a better understanding of when in the retirement transition process, individuals identify with retirement. Moreover, it provides decision support for researchers working with register data to determine which measure to use.

Trends and gender associations in social exclusion in older adults in Sweden over two decades.

BACKGROUND: Social exclusion in older adults is associated with lower well-being and poorer health. To date there has been little research on whether the level of social exclusion in older adults changes over time, and its association with gender. AIM: To examine trends and gender associations in social exclusion indicators in older adults for the years 1992, 2002 and 2011. METHODS: Three waves of data from the Swedish Panel Study of Living Conditions of the Oldest Old (SWEOLD), a national survey of adults aged 77 years or older, were analysed: 1992 (n = 537), 2002 (n = 621), and 2011 (n = 904). Summative scales were created for four domains of social exclusion: material resources, social relations and leisure activities, civic participation, and services. Associations between gender and social exclusion within waves were examined as were trends in social exclusion across years. RESULTS: The analyses of trends found significant reductions in exclusion in the domains of material resources and services. Higher levels of exclusion from material resources and civic participation were found in women than men. Within domains, significant trends and gender associations in exclusion were found on several indicators, with indicators showing opposing trends. CONCLUSION: Although levels of social exclusion have reduced in certain domains during the years examined, our results reflect the persistence of social exclusion in the population of older adults. This underlines the continuing importance of a well-developed welfare and social security system to ensure the social inclusion of vulnerable groups such as older adults.

Social integration and alcohol consumption among older people: A four-year follow-up of a Swedish national sample.

BACKGROUND: Today's older people drink more alcohol than earlier cohorts of older people. Social integration has been identified as an important factor for older people's drinking, but the association is complex. This study investigates both high and low levels of social integration and their associations with longitudinal patterns of alcohol consumption among older women and men. METHODS: Longitudinal nationally representative data of older Swedish women and men aged over 65 - the Swedish Level of Living Survey (LNU) and Swedish Panel Study of Living Conditions of the Oldest Old (SWEOLD) - from 2010/2011 and 2014 (n = 1048). Associations between social contacts and social activities at baseline and longitudinal patterns of drinking frequency were examined with multinomial logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: Men reported drinking alcohol more often than women, but the most common drinking frequency among both women and men was to drink monthly or less. Drinking habits were generally stable over time. People with high levels of social activity at baseline were more likely to have a stable daily or weekly drinking frequency or increased drinking frequency over the four-year follow-up period, particularly women. People with low levels of social contacts and/or social activities were less likely to have a stable daily or weekly drinking frequency, compared to people in the low and stable drinking frequency group. CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol consumption is embedded in a social context, older people drink in social situations and social integration predicts continued drinking patterns.

Planned and Unplanned Hospital Admissions and Their Relationship with Social Factors: Findings from a National, Prospective Study of People Aged 76 Years or Older.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the relationship between social factors and planned and unplanned hospital admissions among older people. DATA SOURCES/STUDY SETTING: 2011 data from the Swedish Panel Study of Living Conditions of the Oldest Old (SWEOLD) and data from the Swedish National Patient Register until December 31, 2012. STUDY DESIGN: The study had a prospective design. Data were analyzed via Cox proportional hazard regressions with variables entered as blocks (social factors, sociodemographic and ability factors, health factors). DATA COLLECTION: Data were collected via interviews with people aged 76+ (n = 931). PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Living in institutions was negatively associated with planned admissions (hazard ratio (HR): 0.29; confidence interval (CI): 0.09-0.88), while being in receipt of home help was positively associated with unplanned admissions (HR: 1.57; CI: 1.15-2.14). Low levels of social contacts and social activity predicted unplanned admissions in bivariate analyses only. Higher ability to deal with public authorities was positively associated with planned admissions (HR: 1.77; CI: 1.13-2.78) and negatively associated with unplanned admissions, although the latter association was only significant in the bivariate analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Hospital admissions are not only due to health problems but are also influenced by the social care situation and by the ability to deal with public authorities.

Social class and infirmity. The role of social class over the life-course.

In an aging society, it is important to promote the compression of poor health. To do so, we need to know more about how life-course trajectories influence late-life health and health inequalities. In this study, we used a life-course perspective to examine how health and health inequalities in late-midlife and in late-life are influenced by socioeconomic position at different stages of the life course. We used a representative sample of the Swedish population born between 1925 and 1934 derived from the Swedish Level of Living Survey (LNU) and the Swedish Panel Study of Living Conditions of the Oldest Old (SWEOLD) to investigate the impact of socioeconomic position during childhood (social class of origin) and of socioeconomic position in young adulthood (social class of entry) and late-midlife (social class of destination) on infirmity in late-midlife (age 60) and late-life (age 80). The results of structural equation modelling showed that poor social class of origin had no direct effect on late-midlife and late-life infirmity, but the overall indirect effect through chains of risks was significant. Thus, late-midlife and late-life health inequalities are the result of complex pathways through different social and material conditions that are unevenly distributed over the life course. Our findings suggest that policies that break the chain of disadvantage may help reduce health inequalities in late-midlife and in late-life.

Long-term predictors of loneliness in old age: results of a 20-year national study.

OBJECTIVES: The understanding of social phenomena is enhanced if individuals can be studied over longer periods. Regarding loneliness in old age, there is a general lack of longitudinal research. The aim of this study was to examine whether there is an association between loneliness in old age and social engagement 20 years earlier, as stated by life course theory and the convoy model. METHOD: Data from the nationally representative Swedish Panel Study of Living Conditions of the Oldest Old (2002 and 2011 data collection waves) and the Swedish Level of Living Survey (1981 and 1991 data collection waves) were used. The sample included 823 individuals with an average age of 62.2 years at baseline and 82.4 years at follow-up. RESULTS: Each form of social engagement in old age was significantly associated with the same form of social engagement 20 years earlier. Close forms of social engagement were associated with loneliness in old age; as were more distant forms of social engagement, but only when they were considered solely in old age. CONCLUSION: Patterns of social engagement in old age were established at least 20 years earlier and close forms of social engagement are long-term predictors of loneliness, although current social engagement tended to be more influential on loneliness. The study underlines the importance of interventions targeted at close relationships that can provide social support in old age.

Lonelier than ever? Loneliness of older people over two decades.

To live with feelings of loneliness has negative implications for quality of life, health and survival. This study aimed to examine changes in loneliness among older people, both with regard to prevalence rates, and socio-demographic, social and health-related correlates of loneliness. This study had a repeated cross-sectional design and was based on the nationally representative Swedish Panel Study of Living Conditions of the Oldest Old (SWEOLD). Analyses of trends in loneliness covered the years 1992, 2002, 2004, 2011 and 2014, and included people aged 77 years or older (n=2 572). Analyses of correlates of loneliness covered 2004 and 2014, and included people aged 70 years or older (n=1 962). Logistic regression analyses were conducted with findings presented as average marginal effects. Contrary to what is often assumed, there has been no increase in loneliness among older people over time (1992-2014). Regression analyses for 2004 and 2014 showed that social and health-related correlates were more strongly associated with loneliness than socio-demographic correlates. Psychological distress was most strongly associated with loneliness, followed by widowhood. Most associations between the correlates and loneliness were stable over time.

Coexisting Disadvantages in later Life: Demographic and Socio-Economic Inequalities.

In this study, we aimed to identify which of certain demographic and socio-economic groups in the oldest part of the population that have an increased probability of experiencing simultaneous disadvantages in different life domains - here termed coexisting disadvantages. To do so, we compared analyses of coexisting disadvantages, measured as two or more simultaneous disadvantages, with analyses of single disadvantages and specific combinations of disadvantages. Indicators of physical health problems, ADL limitations, psychological health problems, limited financial resources, and limited social resources were included. We used nationally representative data from 2011 on people aged 76 and older in Sweden (n = 765). Results showed that coexisting disadvantages were associated with specific demographic and socio-economic groups, particularly certain marital status groups. Moreover, the differences between the demographic and socio-economic groups were only found for those who reported coexisting disadvantages, and not for those who reported only one disadvantage, which suggests that demographic and social factors become more important as disadvantages compound. Further, we analysed pairwise combinations of disadvantages. We found that different combinations of disadvantages tended to be associated with different groups, information useful from a social planning perspective since different combinations of disadvantages may imply different needs for help and support.

Alcohol consumption in very old age and its association with survival: A matter of health and physical function.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol consumption in very old age is increasing; yet, little is known about the personal and health-related characteristics associated with different levels of alcohol consumption and the association between alcohol consumption and survival among the oldest old. METHODS: Nationally representative data from the Swedish Panel Study of Living Conditions of the Oldest Old (SWEOLD, ages 76-101; n=863) collected in 2010/2011 were used. Mortality was analyzed until 2014. Alcohol consumption was measured with questions about frequency and amount. Drinks per month were calculated and categorized as abstainer, light-to-moderate drinker (0.5-30 drinks/month) and heavy drinker (>30 drinks/month). Multinomial logistic regressions and Laplace regressions were performed. RESULTS: Compared to light-to-moderate drinkers, abstainers had lower levels of education and more functional health problems, while heavy drinkers were more often men, had higher levels of education, and no serious health or functional problems. In models adjusted only for age and sex, abstainers died earlier than drinkers. Among light-to-moderate drinkers, each additional drink/month was associated with longer survival, while among heavy drinkers, each additional drink/month was associated with shorter survival. However, after adjusting for personal and health-related factors, estimates were lower and no longer statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: The association between alcohol consumption and survival in very old age seems to have an inverse J-shape; abstention and heavy use is associated with shorter survival compared to light-to-moderate drinking. To a large extent, differences in survival are due to differences in baseline health and physical function.

Do postal health surveys capture morbidity and mortality in respondents aged 65 years and older? A register-based validation study.

AIMS: Non-response to population surveys is a common problem in epidemiological and public health research. Systematic non-response threatens the validity of results. Researchers rarely evaluate the magnitude of systematic non-response because of limited access to population data. This study explores how well morbidity and mortality in postal survey respondents aged 65 years and older represented that of the target population. METHODS: The 2010 Stockholm Public Health Survey and the Swedish Population Register were linked to the Cause of Death Register and the National Patient Register in Sweden. Differences were analysed between the response group and the corresponding population in mortality, hospital admission, days spent in hospital and number of diagnoses. Finally, data were weighted for non-response to see if this improved generalizability. RESULTS: Non-response increased with age, and this increase was more pronounced among women than men. Respondents were marginally less often admitted to hospital, hospitalized fewer days and had slightly fewer diagnoses than the population, in particular after age 80. Significantly fewer women died in the response group than in the population as a whole. In terms of mortality among men and in terms of hospitalizations for most age groups, the respondents represented the population fairly well. Non-response weighting adjustment did not improve generalizability. CONCLUSIONS: Postal questionnaires are likely to capture morbidity (hospitalization) among women and men aged 65-80 years old and mortality among men, while morbidity after age 80 and mortality in women are likely to be underestimated.

Predictors of loneliness among older women and men in Sweden: A national longitudinal study.

OBJECTIVES: Longitudinal research on loneliness in old age has rarely considered loneliness separately for men and women, despite gender differences in life experiences. The objective of this study was to examine the extent to which older women and men (70+) report feelings of loneliness with a focus on: (a) changes in reported loneliness as people age, and (b) which factors predict loneliness. METHOD: Data from the 2004 and 2011 waves of SWEOLD, a longitudinal national survey, was used (n = 587). The prediction of loneliness in 2011 by variables measured in 2004 and 2004-2011 variable change scores was examined in three logistic regression models: total sample, women and men. Variables in the models included: gender, age, education, mobility problems, depression, widowhood and social contacts. RESULTS: Older people moved into and out of frequent loneliness over time, although there was a general increase in loneliness with age. Loneliness at baseline, depression increment and recent widowhood were significant predictors of loneliness in all three multivariable models. Widowhood, depression, mobility problems and mobility reduction predicted loneliness uniquely in the model for women; while low level of social contacts and social contact reduction predicted loneliness uniquely in the model for men. CONCLUSION: This study challenges the notion that feelings of loneliness in old age are stable. It also identifies important gender differences in prevalence and predictors of loneliness. Knowledge about such differences is crucial for the development of effective policy and interventions to combat loneliness in later life.

Data resource profile: The Swedish Panel Study of Living Conditions of the Oldest Old (SWEOLD).

As the number and proportion of very old people in the population increase, there is a need for improved knowledge about their health and living conditions. The SWEOLD interview surveys are based on random samples of the population aged 77+years. The low non-response rates, the inclusion of institutionalized persons and the use of proxy informants for people unable to be interviewed directly ensure a representative portrayal of this age group in Sweden. SWEOLD began in 1992 and has been repeated in 2002, 2004 and 2011. The survey is based on another national survey, the Swedish Level of Living Survey (LNU), started in 1968 with 10-year follow-up waves. This longitudinal design provides additional data collected when SWEOLD participants were in middle age and early old age. The SWEOLD interviews cover a wide range of areas including health and health behaviour, work history, family, leisure activities and use of health and social care services. Socio-economic factors include education, previous occupation and available cash margin. Health indicators include symptoms, diseases, mobility and activities of daily living (ADL). In addition to self-reported data, the interview includes objective tests of lung function, physical function, grip strength and cognition. The data have been linked to register data, for example for income and mortality follow-ups. Data are available to the scientific community on request. More information about the study, data access rules and how to apply for data are available at the website (www.sweold.se).

Trajectories of social activities from middle age to old age and late-life disability: a 36-year follow-up.

OBJECTIVES: to examine the association between 34-year trajectories of social activity, from middle age to old age and late-life disability. METHODS: data from the Swedish Level of Living Survey (LNU) and the Swedish Panel Study of the Oldest Old (SWEOLD) were used. LNU data from 1968, 1981, 1991 and 2000 were merged with SWEOLD data from 1992, 2002 and 2004 to create a longitudinal data set with five observation periods. Trajectories of social activities covered 1968-2002, and late-life disability was measured in 2004. The sample consisted of 729 individuals aged 33-61 at baseline (1968), who participated in at least four observation periods and who were free from mobility limitations at baseline. Four trajectories of social activity were identified and used as predictors of late-life disability. RESULTS: reporting low/medium levels of social activity from mid-life to old age was the most common trajectory group. Persons reporting continuously low/medium or decreasing levels of social activity had higher odds ratios for late-life disability (OR = 2.33 and OR = 2.15, respectively) compared with those having continuously high levels of activity, even when adjusting for age, sex and mobility limitations, and excluding persons with baseline mobility limitations. CONCLUSIONS: results suggest that the disability risk associated with social activities is related to recent levels of activity, but also that risk may accumulate over time, as indicated by the higher disability risk associated with the continuously low/medium level social activity trajectory.