ROC curve analysis: a useful statistic multi-tool in the research of nephrology.

In the past decade, scientific research in the area of Nephrology has focused on evaluating the clinical utility and performance of various biomarkers for diagnosis, risk stratification and prognosis. Before implementing a biomarker in everyday clinical practice for screening a specific disease context, specific statistic measures are necessary to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy and performance of this biomarker. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Curve analysis is an important statistical method used to estimate the discriminatory performance of a novel diagnostic test, identify the optimal cut-off value for a test that maximizes sensitivity and specificity, and evaluate the predictive value of a certain biomarker or risk, prediction score. Herein, through practical examples, we aim to present a simple methodological approach to explain in detail the principles and applications of ROC curve analysis in the field of nephrology pertaining diagnosis and prognosis.

Neuropeptide Y gene polymorphisms and chronic kidney disease progression.

BACKGROUND: Neuropeptide Y (NPY) is a neurotransmitter expressed in both the central and peripheral nervous systems, which is involved in regulating a multitude of physiological processes ranging from arterial pressure, energy balance, the immune response and inflammation and renal electrolyte transport. In a cohort of chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients, we recently showed that high plasma NPY levels predict renal disease progression independently of hypertension and other risk factors but the causal nature of this association remains unproven. METHODS: In the same cohort of the previous study, we tested the relationship of NPY gene variability, as assessed by five single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that explained the whole gene variability, with the incidence rate of a predefined combined renal endpoint (dialysis/transplantation/estimated glomerular filtration rate reduction >30%) over a median follow up of 36 months (inter-quartile range 35-37 months) in 735 ethnically homogeneous patients with stage 2-5 CKD. RESULTS: Two variants [rs16131 (recessive model for the T risk allele: TT, n  = 563; CT + CC, n  = 172) and rs16140 (dominant model for the G risk allele: GG + CG, n  = 413; CC, n  = 322)] were coherently associated with the incidence rate of renal events [hazard ratio (HR) ranging from 1.39 to 1.57, P  ≤ 0.015] and this was also true when the two SNPs were jointly introduced into the same Cox model ( P  ≤ 0.043). The analysis of the biological interaction showed a significant synergism between the NPY rs16131 and rs16140 variants. Indeed, patients harboring NPY rs16131 TT and NPY rs16140 GG + CG risk genotypes had a much higher HR of renal events [HR: 1.80, 95% confidence interval (CI):1.16-2.79, P  = 0.009] than that expected in the absence of biological interaction under both the additive and multiplicative models and the attributable proportion due to interaction (AP) was 25% and 38% on crude and adjusted analyses, respectively. CONCLUSION: This study, based on the Mendelian randomization approach and using NPY gene variants as instrumental variables to test the link between NPY and CKD progression, is in line with findings indicating that high plasma NPY levels predict an increased risk for renal events and lend support to the hypothesis that NPY is causally involved in renal disease progression.

Venous bicarbonate and CKD progression: a longitudinal analysis by the group-based trajectory model.

Background: Metabolic acidosis accelerates chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression towards kidney failure in animal models. Clinical trials testing the effect of bicarbonate on kidney outcomes are underpowered and/or of suboptimal quality. On the other hand, observational studies testing the same hypothesis are generally based on bicarbonate measured at a single time point. Methods: We studied the longitudinal relationship between repeated venous bicarbonate levels and a predefined composite renal outcome (a ≥30% estimated glomerular filtration rate reduction, dialysis or transplantation) by using group-based trajectory model (GBTM) analysis. The GBTM analysis was used to classify patients based on individual bicarbonate levels over time. The relationship between trajectory groups and renal outcomes was investigated using crude and adjusted Cox regression models. A total of 528 patients with stage 2-5 CKD were included in the analysis. Results: The GBTM analysis identified four distinct trajectories of bicarbonate levels: low, moderate, moderate-high and high. During the follow-up period, 126 patients experienced the combined renal endpoint. The hazard rate of renal events decreased dose-dependently from the lowest to the highest bicarbonate trajectory. After adjusting for potential confounders, there was a 63% risk reduction for the composite renal endpoint for patients in the high trajectory category compared with those in the low trajectory category. Conclusion: The study found that higher bicarbonate trajectories were associated with a lower risk of adverse renal outcomes in CKD patients. These results suggest that strategies to maintain higher bicarbonate levels may benefit patients with CKD. However, further high-quality randomised trials are needed to confirm these findings and recommend bicarbonate supplementation as a strategy to delay CKD progression.

Are there sex differences in cardiovascular outcomes in non-dialysis CKD patients?

Background: Sex differences for cardiovascular (CV) risk and outcomes in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients not on dialysis have been scarcely or never investigated. We therefore studied this important aspect in a cohort of CKD stage 2-5 in the south of Italy. Methods: We tested the relationship between sex and fatal and non-fatal major CV events in a cohort of 759 stage 2-5 CKD patients followed up for a median time of 36 months. Results: Out of 759 patients, 455 were males (60%) and the remaining 304 patients were females (40%). During the follow-up, 42 patients died, and 118 had fatal and non-fatal CV events. On univariate Cox regression analyses, the male sex failed to be associated with all-cause mortality but was strongly related to the incidence rate of fatal and non-fatal major CV events [hazard ratio (HR) 1.75, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.18-2.60, P = .006]. Data adjustment for a series of major potential confounders did not materially affect the strength of this relationship (HR 1.78, 95% CI 1.03-3.09). Further analysis testing the effect of age on major CV outcomes by sex showed an effect modification by this risk factor on the same outcome (P = .037) because the HR of male versus female CV events increased progressively with aging. Conclusion: Male patients in stage G2-5 CKD had a higher risk for CV events compared with female patients. Age was shown to be a risk modifier for the association between sex and CV events and this risk increased linearly across a wide age spectrum in CKD patients.

CKD-MBD biomarkers and CKD progression: an analysis by the joint model.

BACKGROUND: Biomarkers of chronic kidney disease-mineral and bone disorder (CKD-MBD) have been implicated in CKD progression in follow-up studies focusing on single measurements of individual biomarkers made at baseline only. The simultaneous relationship between the time trend of these biomarkers over the course of CKD and renal outcomes has never been tested. METHODS: We applied the joint model (JM) to investigate the longitudinal relationship between repeated measurements of CKD-MBD biomarkers and a combined renal endpoint (estimated glomerular filtration rate reduction >30%, dialysis or transplantation) in 729 stage 2-5 CKD patients over a 36-month follow-up. RESULTS: In the survival submodel of the JM, the longitudinal series of parathyroid hormone (PTH) values was directly and independently related to the risk of renal events [hazard ratio (HR) (1 ln increase in parathyroid hormone (PTH) 2.0 (range 1.5-2.8), P < .001)] and this was also true for repeated measurements of serum phosphate [HR (1 mg/dl) 1.3924 (range 1.1459-1.6918), P = .001], serum calcium [HR (1 mg/dl) 0.7487 (range 0.5843-0.9593), P = .022], baseline fibroblast growth factor 23 [HR (1 pg/ml) 1.001 (range 1.00-1.002), P = .045] and 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D [HR (1 pg/ml) 0.9796 (range 0.9652-0.9942), P = .006]. CONCLUSION: Repeated measurements of serum PTH, calcium and phosphate as well as baseline FGF23 and 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D are independently related with the progression to kidney failure in a cohort of stage 2-5 CKD patients. This longitudinal study generates the hypothesis that interventions at multiple levels on MBD biomarkers can mitigate renal function loss in this population.

Fundamentals and Applications of the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve Analysis in the Research of Endothelial Dysfunction in Chronic Kidney Disease.

Endothelial dysfunction (ED) starts early in chronic kidney disease (CKD) and is the hallmark of atherosclerosis in these patients. During recent years, numerous markers have emerged, aiming to predict the onset of ED in CKD patients. Therefore, there is a need to evaluate and assess the discriminatory ability (or diagnostic accuracy) of such a marker (i.e., the ability to correctly classify individuals as having a given disease or not) and identify the optimal cut-off value. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis has been used in the majority of the research papers evaluating the predictive ability of a marker of ED. It is a graphical plot combining pairs of sensitivity (true positive rate) on the y axis and the complement of specificity (1-specificity, false positive rate) in the x axis, corresponding to several of the cut-off values covering the complete range of possible values that this test/marker might take. Herein, using a series of practical examples derived from clinical studies on ED in the special population of CKD, we address the principles, fundamentals, advantages and limitations regarding the interpretation of the ROC analysis.

Methods to Analyze Time-to-Event Data: The Cox Regression Analysis.

The Cox model is a regression technique for performing survival analyses in epidemiological and clinical research. This model estimates the hazard ratio (HR) of a given endpoint associated with a specific risk factor, which can be either a continuous variable like age and C-reactive protein level or a categorical variable like gender and diabetes mellitus. When the risk factor is a continuous variable, the Cox model provides the HR of the study endpoint associated with a predefined unit of increase in the independent variable (e.g., for every 1-year increase in age, 2 mg/L increase in C-reactive protein). A fundamental assumption underlying the application of the Cox model is proportional hazards; in other words, the effects of different variables on survival are constant over time and additive over a particular scale. The Cox regression model, when applied to etiological studies, also allows an adjustment for potential confounders; in an exposure-outcome pathway, a confounder is a variable which is associated with the exposure, is not an effect of the exposure, does not lie in the causal pathway between the exposure and the outcome, and represents a risk factor for the outcome.

Methods to Analyse Time-to-Event Data: The Kaplan-Meier Survival Curve.

Studies performed in the field of oxidative medicine and cellular longevity frequently focus on the association between biomarkers of cellular and molecular mechanisms of oxidative stress as well as of aging, immune function, and vascular biology with specific time to event data, such as mortality and organ failure. Indeed, time-to-event analysis is one of the most important methodologies used in clinical and epidemiological research to address etiological and prognostic hypotheses. Survival data require adequate methods of analyses. Among these, the Kaplan-Meier analysis is the most used one in both observational and interventional studies. In this paper, we describe the mathematical background of this technique and the concept of censoring (right censoring, interval censoring, and left censoring) and report some examples demonstrating how to construct a Kaplan-Meier survival curve and how to apply this method to provide an answer to specific research questions.

Distance from the outbreak of infection, ozone pollution and public health consequences of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic: the HOPE method.

BACKGROUND: Italy was the second country in the world, after China, to be hit by SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Italy's experience teaches that steps to limit people's movement by imposing 'red zones' need to be put in place early by carefully identifying the cities to be included within these areas of quarantine. The assessment of the relationship between the distance from an established outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 infection with transmission-linked cases and mortality observed in other sites could provide useful information to identify the optimal radius of red zones. METHODS: We investigated the relationship between SARS-CoV-2 cases and the distance of each Italian province from the first outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Italy (the city of Lodi placed in the Lombardia region). In 38 provinces of Lombardia and neighboring regions, we performed a breakpoint analysis to identify the radius of the red zone around Lodi minimizing epidemic spread and mortality in neighboring cities. RESULTS: In all Italian provinces, a non-linear relationship was found between SARS-CoV-2 cases and distance from Lodi. In an analysis including the provinces of Lombardia and neighboring regions, SARS-CoV-2 cases and mortality increased when the distance from Lodi reduced below 92 and 140 km, respectively, and such relationships were amplified by ozone (O3) pollution. CONCLUSIONS: The breakpoint analysis identifies the radius around the outbreak of Lodi minimizing the public health consequences of SARS-CoV-2 in neighboring cities. Such an approach can be useful to identify the red zones in future epidemics due to highly infective pathogens similar to SARS-CoV-2.

Epidemiology of hyperkalemia in CKD patients under nephrological care: a longitudinal study.

Hyperkalemia is a potential life-threatening condition among chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients. Available estimates of the burden of this alteration in CKD are mainly derived from large administrative databases. Since K measurements in patients in these databases are often dictated by clinical reasons, longitudinal studies including pre-planned measurements of potassium independently of clinical complication/symptoms may produce more reliable estimates of the frequency and the risk factors underlying hyperkalemia in CKD patients. We estimated the prevalence and the incidence of hyperkalemia in a longitudinal study in 752 stages 2-5 CKD patients lasting 3 years and including up to seven pre-planned assessment of key biochemical measurements including K. At baseline, 203 out of 752 patients (27%) had serum K > 5.0 mM/L and 33% had acidosis (HCO3 ≤ 22 mmol/L). Among those without hyperkalemia at baseline (n = 549), 284 patients developed this alteration across the 3-year follow-up. The point prevalence of hyperkalemia rose from 27% (baseline) to 30% (last visit) (P = 0.001). In a multivariate model, hyperkalemia at baseline [odds ratio (OR):7.29, 95% CI 5.65-9.41, P < 0.001], venous bicarbonate levels [OR (1 mmol/l): 0.92, 0.89-0.96, P < 0.001], eGFR [OR (1 ml/min/1.73m2): 0.98, 0.97-0.99, P < 0.001], use of ACE inhibitors (OR: 1.68, 1.28-2.19, P < 0.001) and angiotensin II antagonists (OR: 1.30, 1.01-1.68, P = 0.045) were related to hyperkalemia over time. Of note, venous bicarbonate levels emerged as an independent risk factor of hyperkalemia over time also in a separate analysis of patients with and without hyperkalemia at baseline. In a cohort of CKD patients including pre-planned measurements of K, 27% of patients had hyperkalemia. Metabolic acidosis and the use of drugs interfering with renin-angiotensin system were the strongest modifiable risk factors for this potentially life-threatening alteration in CKD in longitudinal analyses in the whole study cohort and in patients developing de novo hyperkalemia over time.

Serum Erythroferrone Levels Associate with Mortality and Cardiovascular Events in Hemodialysis and in CKD Patients: A Two Cohorts Study.

Erythroferrone (ERFE) is a hepcidin inhibitor whose synthesis is stimulated by erythropoietin, which increases iron absorption and mobilization. We studied the association between serum ERFE and mortality and non-fatal cardiovascular (CV) events in a cohort of 1123 hemodialysis patients and in a cohort of 745 stage 1-5 chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients. Erythroferrone was measured by a validated enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). In the hemodialysis cohort, serum ERFE associated directly with erythropoiesis stimulating agents (ESA) dose (p < 0.001) and inversely with serum iron and ferritin (p < 0.001). Erythroferrone associated with the combined outcome in an analysis adjusting for traditional risk factors, factors peculiar to end-stage kidney disease, serum ferritin, inflammation, and nutritional status (HR, hazard ratio, (5 ng/mL increase: 1.04, 95% confidence interval, CI: 1.01-1.08, p = 0.005). Furthermore, treatment with ESA modified the relationship between ERFE and the combined end-point in adjusted analyses (p for the effect modification = 0.018). Similarly, in CKD patients there was a linear increase in the risk for the same outcome in adjusted analyses (HR (2 ng/mL increase): 1.04, 95% CI: 1.0-1.07, p = 0.015). Serum ERFE is associated with mortality and CV events in CKD and in HD patients, and treatment by ESA amplifies the risk for this combined end-point in HD patients.

Neuropeptide Y predicts cardiovascular events in chronic kidney disease patients: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Neuropeptide Y (NPY) is a multifaceted sympathetic neurotransmitter regulating reflex cardiovascular control, myocardial cell growth, inflammation and innate immunity. Circulating NPY levels predict cardiovascular mortality in patients with end stage kidney disease on dialysis but this relationship has never been tested in predialysis chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients. METHODS: We investigated the relationship between circulating NPY and the risk for cardiovascular events (Fine & Gray competing risks model) in a cohort of 753 stages 2-5 CKD patients over a median follow-up of 36 months. RESULTS: Independently of other risk factors, plasma NPY was directly related with the glomerular filtration rate (ß = -0.19, P < 0.001) but was independent of systemic inflammation as quantified by serum IL6 and C reactive protein. Over follow-up 112 patients had cardiovascular events and 12 died. In analyses fully adjusted for traditional risk factors and a large series of CKD-specific risk factors and considering death as a competing event (Fine and Gray model) a 0.25 µmol/l increase in NPY robustly predicted the incident risk for cardiovascular events (subdistribution hazard ratio: 1.25; 95% confidence interval: 1.09-1.44; P = 0.002). Furthermore, the fully adjusted NPY - cardiovascular outcomes relationship was modified by age (P = 0.012) being quite strong in young patients but weaker in the old ones. CONCLUSION: NPY is an independent, robust predictor of cardiovascular events in predialysis CKD patients and the risk for such events is age-dependent being maximal in young patients. These findings suggest that NPY may play a role in the high risk of cardiovascular disease in this population.

Different rates of progression and mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease at outpatient nephrology clinics across Europe.

The incidence of renal replacement therapy varies across countries. However, little is known about the epidemiology of chronic kidney disease (CKD) outcomes. Here we describe progression and mortality risk of patients with CKD but not on renal replacement therapy at outpatient nephrology clinics across Europe using individual data from nine CKD cohorts participating in the European CKD Burden Consortium. A joint model assessed the mean change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and mortality risk simultaneously, thereby accounting for mortality risk when estimating eGFR decline and vice versa, while also correcting for the measurement error in eGFR. Results were adjusted for important risk factors (baseline eGFR, age, sex, albuminuria, primary renal disease, diabetes, hypertension, obesity and smoking) in 27,771 patients from five countries. The adjusted mean annual eGFR decline varied from 0.77 (95% confidence interval 0.45, 1.08) ml/min/1.73m2 in the Belgium cohort to 2.43 (2.11, 2.75) ml/min/1.73m2 in the Spanish cohort. As compared to the Italian PIRP cohort, the adjusted mortality hazard ratio varied from 0.22 (0.11, 0.43) in the London LACKABO cohort to 1.30 (1.13, 1.49) in the English CRISIS cohort. These results suggest that the eGFR decline showed minor variation but mortality showed the most variation. Thus, different health care organization systems are potentially associated with differences in outcome of patients with CKD within Europe. These results can be used by policy makers to plan resources on a regional, national and European level.

Neuropeptide Y and chronic kidney disease progression: a cohort study.

Background: Neuropeptide Y (NPY) is a sympathetic neurotransmitter that has been implicated in various disorders including obesity, gastrointestinal and cardiovascular diseases. Methods: We investigated the relationship between circulating NPY and the progression of the glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and proteinuria and the risk for a combined renal endpoint (>30% GFR loss, dialysis/transplantation) in two European chronic kidney disease (CKD) cohorts including follow-up of 753 and 576 patients for 36 and 57 months, respectively. Results: Average plasma NPY was 104 ± 32 pmol/L in the first CKD cohort and 119 ± 41 pmol/L in the second one. In separate analyses of the two cohorts, NPY associated with the progression of the estimated GFR (eGFR) and proteinuria over time in both unadjusted and adjusted {eGFR: -3.60 mL/min/1.73 m2 [95% confidence interval (CI): -4.46 to - 2.74] P < 0.001 and -0.83 mL/min/1.73 m2 (-1.41 to - 0.25, P = 0.005); proteinuria: 0.18 g/24 h (0.11-0.25) P < 0.001 and 0.07 g/24 h (0.005-0.14) P = 0.033} analyses by the mixed linear model. Accordingly, in a combined analysis of the two cohorts accounting for the competitive risk of death (Fine and Gray model), NPY predicted (P = 0.005) the renal endpoint [sub-distribution hazard ratio (SHR): 1.09; 95% CI: 1.03-1.16; P = 0.005] and the SHR in the first cohort (1.14, 95% CI: 1.04-1.25) did not differ (P = 0.25) from that in the second cohort (1.06, 95% CI: 0.98-1.15). Conclusions: NPY associates with proteinuria and faster CKD progression as well as with a higher risk of kidney failure. These findings suggest that the sympathetic system and/or properties intrinsic to the NPY molecule may play a role in CKD progression.

Office, standardized and 24-h ambulatory blood pressure and renal function loss in renal transplant patients.

OBJECTIVES: Hypertension is a risk factor for renal function loss in kidney transplant patients but there are still no longitudinal studies focusing on the relationship between ambulatory blood pressure (BP) monitoring (ABPM) and the glomerular filtration rate (GFR) evolution over time in these patients. METHODS: In a cohort of 260 renal transplant patients, we investigated the longitudinal relationship between repeated office BP measurements and simultaneous GFR measurements (on average 35 paired measurements per patient) and the relationship between baseline ABPM with the same outcome measure (by linear mixed models). Furthermore, we tested the prediction power of baseline ABPM and standardized BP measurements for a combined renal end point (GFR loss >30%, end-stage kidney disease or death) over a 3.7 years follow-up. RESULTS: Longitudinal office BP measurements were inversely related with simultaneous GFR measurements and the same was true both for baseline daytime and night-time BP. (all P < 0.001). Baseline 24-h ABPM [hazard ratio (5 mmHg):1.11; 95% confidence interval 1.03-1.19] and night-time SBP [hazard ratio (5 mmHg):1.10; 95% confidence interval 1.03-1.17] predicted the combined renal end point and the predictive model based on night-time SBP provided a data-fit superior than that by daytime SBP. CONCLUSION: In renal transplant patients, daytime and night-time SBP predict the risk of GFR loss overtime, and among the various BP metrics, night-time BP is the strongest indicator of the risk of renal function loss. Optimization of BP control and interventions targeting night-time BP may afford renal benefits in transplant patients, a hypothesis that remains to be tested in a clinical trial.

A polymorphism in a major antioxidant gene (Kelch-like ECH-associated protein 1) predicts incident cardiovascular events in chronic kidney disease patients: an exploratory study.

OBJECTIVE: Oxidative stress is considered a major pathway conducive to cardiovascular disease in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients. However, observational studies and clinical trials testing this relationship are controversial. The Nuclear factor-erythroid-2-related factor 2 (Nrf2)-Kelch-like ECH-associated protein 1 (Keap1) system is a major system regulating antioxidant mechanisms in living organisms. Owing to the fact that genes are transmitted randomly (Mendelian randomization), genetic variants may provide unconfounded assessment of putative causal risk factors. METHODS: We have therefore explored the association of eight polymorphisms in the Nrf2 gene and three polymorphisms in the Keap1 gene (capturing over 80% of the genetic variance in the same genes) with cardiovascular events in a multicenter cohort study of 758 CKD patients. RESULTS: During the follow-up period, 117 patients had fatal and nonfatal cardiovascular events and 42 died. The hazard rate of fatal and nonfatal cardiovascular outcomes was about twice higher in patients with the AA or the CA genotype (dominant model) in the rs110857735 polymorphism of the Keap1 gene (hazard rate: 1.85, 95% CI: 1.20-2.84, P = 0.005) than in those with the CC genotype. Further analyses adjusting for Framingham risk factors and CKD-specific risk factors and a bootstrapping validation analysis did not modify the strength of this association. No association was registered between other Keap1 and Nrf2 polymorphisms and cardiovascular disease in the same cohort. CONCLUSION: In this exploratory study a gene-variant in Keap1, a major gene regulating the antioxidant response, predicts incident cardiovascular events in CKD patients. This finding is in keeping with the hypothesis implicating oxidative stress in cardiovascular disease in this population.

Nocturnal Hypertension and Altered Night-Day BP Profile and Atherosclerosis in Renal Transplant Patients.

BACKGROUND: The clinical relevance of ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) for risk stratification in renal transplant patients still remains poorly defined. METHODS: We investigated the association between clinic and ABPM with an established biomarker of atherosclerosis (intima-media thickness [IMT] by echo-color Doppler) in a large, inclusive survey (n = 172) in renal transplant patients at a single institution. RESULTS: Forty-two patients (24%) were classified as hypertensive by ABPM criteria and 29 (17%) by clinic blood pressure (BP) criteria. Average daytime and nighttime BP was 126 ± 12/78 ± 9 mm Hg and 123 ± 13/74 ± 10 mm Hg, respectively. Forty-five patients (26%) were classified as hypertensive by the daytime criterion (>135/85 mm Hg) and a much higher proportion (n = 119, 69%) by the nighttime criterion (>120/70 mm Hg). Sixty-two patients (36%) had a night-day ratio of 1 or greater, indicating clear-cut nondipping. The average nighttime systolic BP (r = 0.24, P = 0.001) and the night-day systolic BP ratio (r = 0.23, P = 0.002) were directly related to IMT, and these associations were much more robust than the 24-hour systolic BP-IMT relationship (r = 0.16, P = 0.04). Average daytime BP and clinic B were unrelated to IMT. In a multiple regression analysis adjusting for confounders, the night-day systolic BP ratio maintained an independent association with IMT (ß = 0.14, P = 0.04). CONCLUSIONS: In renal transplant patients, the prevalence of nocturnal hypertension by far exceeds the prevalence of hypertension as assessed by clinic, daytime, and 24-hour ABPM. Nighttime systolic BP and the night-day ratio but no other BP metrics are independently associated with IMT. Blood pressure during nighttime may provide unique information for the assessment of cardiovascular risk attributable to BP burden in renal transplant patients.

Epidemiology of CKD Regression in Patients under Nephrology Care.

Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) regression is considered as an infrequent renal outcome, limited to early stages, and associated with higher mortality. However, prevalence, prognosis and the clinical correlates of CKD regression remain undefined in the setting of nephrology care. This is a multicenter prospective study in 1418 patients with established CKD (eGFR: 60-15 ml/min/1.73m²) under nephrology care in 47 outpatient clinics in Italy from a least one year. We defined CKD regressors as a ΔGFR ≥0 ml/min/1.73 m2/year. ΔGFR was estimated as the absolute difference between eGFR measured at baseline and at follow up visit after 18-24 months, respectively. Outcomes were End Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) and overall-causes Mortality.391 patients (27.6%) were identified as regressors as they showed an eGFR increase between the baseline visit in the renal clinic and the follow up visit. In multivariate regression analyses the regressor status was not associated with CKD stage. Low proteinuria was the main factor associated with CKD regression, accounting per se for 48% of the likelihood of this outcome. Lower systolic blood pressure, higher BMI and absence of autosomal polycystic disease (PKD) were additional predictors of CKD regression. In regressors, ESRD risk was 72% lower (HR: 0.28; 95% CI 0.14-0.57; p<0.0001) while mortality risk did not differ from that in non-regressors (HR: 1.16; 95% CI 0.73-1.83; p = 0.540). Spline models showed that the reduction of ESRD risk associated with positive ΔGFR was attenuated in advanced CKD stage. CKD regression occurs in about one-fourth patients receiving renal care in nephrology units and correlates with low proteinuria, BP and the absence of PKD. This condition portends better renal prognosis, mostly in earlier CKD stages, with no excess risk for mortality.

High estimated pulmonary artery systolic pressure predicts adverse cardiovascular outcomes in stage 2-4 chronic kidney disease.

High estimated pulmonary artery systolic pressure (ePASP) is an established risk factor for mortality and cardiovascular (CV) events in the general population. High ePASP predicts mortality in dialysis patients but such a relationship has not been tested in patients with early CKD. Here we estimated the prevalence and the risk factors of high ePASP in 468 patients with CKD stage 2-4 and determined its prognostic power for a combined end point including cardiovascular death, acute heart failure, coronary artery disease, and cerebrovascular and peripheral artery events. High ePASP (35 mm Hg and above) was present in 108 CKD patients. In a multivariate logistic regression model adjusted for age, diabetes, hemoglobin, left atrial volume (LAV/BSA), left ventricular mass (LVM/BSA), and history of CV disease, age (OR, 1.06; 95% CI, 12 1.04-1.09) and LAV/BSA (OR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.03-1.07) were the sole significant independent predictors of high ePASP. Elevated ePASP predicted a significantly high risk for the combined cardiovascular end point both in unadjusted analyses (HR, 2.70; 95% CI, 1.68-4.32) and in analyses adjusting for age, eGFR, hemoglobin, LAV/BSA, LVM/BSA, and the presence of diabetes and CV disease (HR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.05-2.91). High ePASP is relatively common in patients with stage 2-4 CKD and predicts adverse CV outcomes independent of established classical and CKD-specific risk factors. Whether high ePASP is a modifiable risk factor in patients with CKD remains to be determined in randomized clinical trials.

A genetic marker of uric acid level, carotid atherosclerosis, and arterial stiffness: a family-based study.

BACKGROUND: Hyperuricemia associates with atherosclerosis complications, but it is uncertain whether this relationship is causal in nature. The urate transporter GLUT9 (encoded by the SLC2A9 gene) is a major genetic determinant of serum uric acid level in humans. Because polymorphisms are distributed randomly at mating (Mendelian randomization), studies based on GLUT9 polymorphisms may provide unconfounded assessment of the nature of the link between uric acid and atherosclerosis. STUDY DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: Family-based study including 449 individuals in 107 families in a genetically homogeneous population in Southern Italy. FACTOR: Serum uric acid level, rs734553 allele, and age. OUTCOME: Ultrasound biomarkers of atherosclerosis (intima-media thickness [IMT] and internal diameter) and pulse wave velocity (PWV). RESULTS: Serum uric acid level was dose-dependently associated with the T allele of rs734553, a polymorphism in SLC2A9 (P=8×10(-6)). Serum uric acid level was a strong modifier of the relationship between age and IMT in fully adjusted analyses (ß=0.33; P=0.01), whereas no such relationship was found for internal diameter (ß=-0.15; P=0.3) or PWV (ß=0.10; P=0.6). The T allele coherently associated with carotid IMT, internal diameter, and PWV and emerged as an even stronger modifier of the age-IMT and age-internal diameter relationships in both crude and fully adjusted (ß=0.40 [P<0.001] and ß=0.48 [P=0.003], respectively) analyses. LIMITATIONS: This is a hypothesis-generating study. CONCLUSIONS: Results in this family-based study implicate uric acid as an important modifier of the age-dependent risk for atherosclerosis. Trials testing uric acid-lowering interventions are needed to prove this hypothesis.