ESTIMATING AND COMPARING CANCER PROGRESSION RISKS UNDER VARYING SURVEILLANCE PROTOCOLS.

Outcomes after cancer diagnosis and treatment are often observed at discrete times via doctor-patient encounters or specialized diagnostic examinations. Despite their ubiquity as endpoints in cancer studies, such outcomes pose challenges for analysis. In particular, comparisons between studies or patient populations with different surveillance schema may be confounded by differences in visit frequencies. We present a statistical framework based on multistate and hidden Markov models that represents events on a continuous time scale given data with discrete observation times. To demonstrate this framework, we consider the problem of comparing risks of prostate cancer progression across multiple active surveillance cohorts with different surveillance frequencies. We show that the different surveillance schedules partially explain observed differences in the progression risks between cohorts. Our application permits the conclusion that differences in underlying cancer progression risks across cohorts persist after accounting for different surveillance frequencies.

Comparative Analysis of Biopsy Upgrading in Four Prostate Cancer Active Surveillance Cohorts.

Background: Active surveillance (AS) is increasingly accepted for managing low-risk prostate cancer, yet there is no consensus about implementation. This lack of consensus is due in part to uncertainty about risks for disease progression, which have not been systematically compared or integrated across AS studies with variable surveillance protocols and dropout to active treatment. Objective: To compare risks for upgrading from a Gleason score (GS) of 6 or less to 7 or more across AS studies after accounting for differences in surveillance intervals and competing treatments and to evaluate tradeoffs of more versus less frequent biopsies. Design: Joint statistical model of longitudinal prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels and risks for biopsy upgrading. Setting: Johns Hopkins University (JHU); Canary Prostate Active Surveillance Study (PASS); University of California, San Francisco (UCSF); and University of Toronto (UT) AS studies. Patients: 2576 men aged 40 to 80 years with a GS between 2 and 6 and clinical stage T1 or T2 prostate cancer enrolled between 1995 and 2014. Measurements: PSA levels and biopsy GSs. Results: After variable surveillance intervals and competing treatments were accounted for, estimated risks for biopsy upgrading were similar in the PASS and UT studies but higher in UCSF and lower in JHU studies. All cohorts had a delay of 3 to 5 months in detecting upgrading with biennial biopsies starting after a first confirmatory biopsy versus annual biopsies. Limitation: The model does not account for possible misclassification of biopsy GS. Conclusion: Men in different AS studies have different risks for biopsy upgrading after variable surveillance protocols and competing treatments are accounted for. Despite these differences, the consequences of more versus less frequent biopsies seem to be similar across cohorts. Biennial biopsies seem to be an acceptable alternative to annual biopsies. Primary Funding Source: National Cancer Institute.

Characterizing dynamic changes in the human blood transcriptional network.

Gene expression data generated systematically in a given system over multiple time points provides a source of perturbation that can be leveraged to infer causal relationships among genes explaining network changes. Previously, we showed that food intake has a large impact on blood gene expression patterns and that these responses, either in terms of gene expression level or gene-gene connectivity, are strongly associated with metabolic diseases. In this study, we explored which genes drive the changes of gene expression patterns in response to time and food intake. We applied the Granger causality test and the dynamic Bayesian network to gene expression data generated from blood samples collected at multiple time points during the course of a day. The simulation result shows that combining many short time series together is as powerful to infer Granger causality as using a single long time series. Using the Granger causality test, we identified genes that were supported as the most likely causal candidates for the coordinated temporal changes in the network. These results show that PER1 is a key regulator of the blood transcriptional network, in which multiple biological processes are under circadian rhythm regulation. The fasted and fed dynamic Bayesian networks showed that over 72% of dynamic connections are self links. Finally, we show that different processes such as inflammation and lipid metabolism, which are disconnected in the static network, become dynamically linked in response to food intake, which would suggest that increasing nutritional load leads to coordinate regulation of these biological processes. In conclusion, our results suggest that food intake has a profound impact on the dynamic co-regulation of multiple biological processes, such as metabolism, immune response, apoptosis and circadian rhythm. The results could have broader implications for the design of studies of disease association and drug response in clinical trials.

The effect of food intake on gene expression in human peripheral blood.

Human gene expression traits have been shown to be dependent on gender, age and time of day in blood and other tissues. However, other factors that may impact gene expression have not been systematically explored. For example, in studies linking blood gene expression to obesity related traits, whether the fasted or fed state will be the most informative is an open question. Here, we employed a two-arm cross-over design to perform a genome-wide survey of gene expression in human peripheral blood to address explicitly this type of question. We were able to distinguish expression changes due to individual and time-specific effects from those due to food intake. We demonstrate that the transcriptional response to food intake is robust by constructing a classifier from the gene expression traits with >90% accuracy classifying individuals as being in the fasted or fed state. Gene expression traits that were best able to discriminate the fasted and fed states were more heritable and achieved greater coherence with respect to pathways associated with metabolic traits. The connectivity structure among gene expression traits was explored in the context of coexpression networks. Changes in the connectivity structure were observed between the fasted and fed states. We demonstrate that differential expression and differential connectivity are two complementary ways to characterize changes between fasted and fed states. Both gene sets were significantly enriched for genes associated with obesity related traits. Our results suggest that the pair of fasted/fed blood expression profiles provide more comprehensive information about an individual's metabolic states.

Genetics of gene expression and its effect on disease.

Common human diseases result from the interplay of many genes and environmental factors. Therefore, a more integrative biology approach is needed to unravel the complexity and causes of such diseases. To elucidate the complexity of common human diseases such as obesity, we have analysed the expression of 23,720 transcripts in large population-based blood and adipose tissue cohorts comprehensively assessed for various phenotypes, including traits related to clinical obesity. In contrast to the blood expression profiles, we observed a marked correlation between gene expression in adipose tissue and obesity-related traits. Genome-wide linkage and association mapping revealed a highly significant genetic component to gene expression traits, including a strong genetic effect of proximal (cis) signals, with 50% of the cis signals overlapping between the two tissues profiled. Here we demonstrate an extensive transcriptional network constructed from the human adipose data that exhibits significant overlap with similar network modules constructed from mouse adipose data. A core network module in humans and mice was identified that is enriched for genes involved in the inflammatory and immune response and has been found to be causally associated to obesity-related traits.