Towards precision medicine for anxiety disorders: objective assessment, risk prediction, pharmacogenomics, and repurposed drugs.

Anxiety disorders are increasingly prevalent, affect people's ability to do things, and decrease quality of life. Due to lack of objective tests, they are underdiagnosed and sub-optimally treated, resulting in adverse life events and/or addictions. We endeavored to discover blood biomarkers for anxiety, using a four-step approach. First, we used a longitudinal within-subject design in individuals with psychiatric disorders to discover blood gene expression changes between self-reported low anxiety and high anxiety states. Second, we prioritized the list of candidate biomarkers with a Convergent Functional Genomics approach using other evidence in the field. Third, we validated our top biomarkers from discovery and prioritization in an independent cohort of psychiatric subjects with clinically severe anxiety. Fourth, we tested these candidate biomarkers for clinical utility, i.e. ability to predict anxiety severity state, and future clinical worsening (hospitalizations with anxiety as a contributory cause), in another independent cohort of psychiatric subjects. We showed increased accuracy of individual biomarkers with a personalized approach, by gender and diagnosis, particularly in women. The biomarkers with the best overall evidence were GAD1, NTRK3, ADRA2A, FZD10, GRK4, and SLC6A4. Finally, we identified which of our biomarkers are targets of existing drugs (such as a valproate, omega-3 fatty acids, fluoxetine, lithium, sertraline, benzodiazepines, and ketamine), and thus can be used to match patients to medications and measure response to treatment. We also used our biomarker gene expression signature to identify drugs that could be repurposed for treating anxiety, such as estradiol, pirenperone, loperamide, and disopyramide. Given the detrimental impact of untreated anxiety, the current lack of objective measures to guide treatment, and the addiction potential of existing benzodiazepines-based anxiety medications, there is a urgent need for more precise and personalized approaches like the one we developed.

Alcohol consumption and telomere length: Mendelian randomization clarifies alcohol's effects.

Alcohol's impact on telomere length, a proposed marker of biological aging, is unclear. We performed the largest observational study to date (in n = 245,354 UK Biobank participants) and compared findings with Mendelian randomization (MR) estimates. Two-sample MR used data from 472,174 participants in a recent genome-wide association study (GWAS) of telomere length. Genetic variants were selected on the basis of associations with alcohol consumption (n = 941,280) and alcohol use disorder (AUD) (n = 57,564 cases). Non-linear MR employed UK Biobank individual data. MR analyses suggested a causal relationship between alcohol traits, more strongly for AUD, and telomere length. Higher genetically-predicted AUD (inverse variance-weighted (IVW) ß = -0.06, 95% confidence interval (CI): -0.10 to -0.02, p = 0.001) was associated with shorter telomere length. There was a weaker association with genetically-predicted alcoholic drinks weekly (IVW ß = -0.07, CI: -0.14 to -0.01, p = 0.03). Results were consistent across methods and independent from smoking. Non-linear analyses indicated a potential threshold relationship between alcohol and telomere length. Our findings indicate that alcohol consumption may shorten telomere length. There are implications for age-related diseases.

Precision medicine for mood disorders: objective assessment, risk prediction, pharmacogenomics, and repurposed drugs.

Mood disorders (depression, bipolar disorders) are prevalent and disabling. They are also highly co-morbid with other psychiatric disorders. Currently there are no objective measures, such as blood tests, used in clinical practice, and available treatments do not work in everybody. The development of blood tests, as well as matching of patients with existing and new treatments, in a precise, personalized and preventive fashion, would make a significant difference at an individual and societal level. Early pilot studies by us to discover blood biomarkers for mood state were promising [1], and validated by others [2]. Recent work by us has identified blood gene expression biomarkers that track suicidality, a tragic behavioral outcome of mood disorders, using powerful longitudinal within-subject designs, validated them in suicide completers, and tested them in independent cohorts for ability to assess state (suicidal ideation), and ability to predict trait (future hospitalizations for suicidality) [3-6]. These studies showed good reproducibility with subsequent independent genetic studies [7]. More recently, we have conducted such studies also for pain [8], for stress disorders [9], and for memory/Alzheimer's Disease [10]. We endeavored to use a similar comprehensive approach to identify more definitive biomarkers for mood disorders, that are transdiagnostic, by studying mood in psychiatric disorders patients. First, we used a longitudinal within-subject design and whole-genome gene expression approach to discover biomarkers which track mood state in subjects who had diametric changes in mood state from low to high, from visit to visit, as measured by a simple visual analog scale that we had previously developed (SMS-7). Second, we prioritized these biomarkers using a convergent functional genomics (CFG) approach encompassing in a comprehensive fashion prior published evidence in the field. Third, we validated the biomarkers in an independent cohort of subjects with clinically severe depression (as measured by Hamilton Depression Scale, (HAMD)) and with clinically severe mania (as measured by the Young Mania Rating Scale (YMRS)). Adding the scores from the first three steps into an overall convergent functional evidence (CFE) score, we ended up with 26 top candidate blood gene expression biomarkers that had a CFE score as good as or better than SLC6A4, an empirical finding which we used as a de facto positive control and cutoff. Notably, there was among them an enrichment in genes involved in circadian mechanisms. We further analyzed the biological pathways and networks for the top candidate biomarkers, showing that circadian, neurotrophic, and cell differentiation functions are involved, along with serotonergic and glutamatergic signaling, supporting a view of mood as reflecting energy, activity and growth. Fourth, we tested in independent cohorts of psychiatric patients the ability of each of these 26 top candidate biomarkers to assess state (mood (SMS-7), depression (HAMD), mania (YMRS)), and to predict clinical course (future hospitalizations for depression, future hospitalizations for mania). We conducted our analyses across all patients, as well as personalized by gender and diagnosis, showing increased accuracy with the personalized approach, particularly in women. Again, using SLC6A4 as the cutoff, twelve top biomarkers had the strongest overall evidence for tracking and predicting depression after all four steps: NRG1, DOCK10, GLS, PRPS1, TMEM161B, GLO1, FANCF, HNRNPDL, CD47, OLFM1, SMAD7, and SLC6A4. Of them, six had the strongest overall evidence for tracking and predicting both depression and mania, hence bipolar mood disorders. There were also two biomarkers (RLP3 and SLC6A4) with the strongest overall evidence for mania. These panels of biomarkers have practical implications for distinguishing between depression and bipolar disorder. Next, we evaluated the evidence for our top biomarkers being targets of existing psychiatric drugs, which permits matching patients to medications in a targeted fashion, and the measuring of response to treatment. We also used the biomarker signatures to bioinformatically identify new/repurposed candidate drugs. Top drugs of interest as potential new antidepressants were pindolol, ciprofibrate, pioglitazone and adiphenine, as well as the natural compounds asiaticoside and chlorogenic acid. The last 3 had also been identified by our previous suicidality studies. Finally, we provide an example of how a report to doctors would look for a patient with depression, based on the panel of top biomarkers (12 for depression and bipolar, one for mania), with an objective depression score, risk for future depression, and risk for bipolar switching, as well as personalized lists of targeted prioritized existing psychiatric medications and new potential medications. Overall, our studies provide objective assessments, targeted therapeutics, and monitoring of response to treatment, that enable precision medicine for mood disorders.

Towards precision medicine for stress disorders: diagnostic biomarkers and targeted drugs.

The biological fingerprint of environmental adversity may be key to understanding health and disease, as it encompasses the damage induced as well as the compensatory reactions of the organism. Metabolic and hormonal changes may be an informative but incomplete window into the underlying biology. We endeavored to identify objective blood gene expression biomarkers for psychological stress, a subjective sensation with biological roots. To quantify the stress perception at a particular moment in time, we used a simple visual analog scale for life stress in psychiatric patients, a high-risk group. Then, using a stepwise discovery, prioritization, validation, and testing in independent cohort design, we were successful in identifying gene expression biomarkers that were predictive of high-stress states and of future psychiatric hospitalizations related to stress, more so when personalized by gender and diagnosis. One of the top biomarkers that survived discovery, prioritization, validation, and testing was FKBP5, a well-known gene involved in stress response, which serves as a de facto reassuring positive control. We also compared our biomarker findings with telomere length (TL), another well-established biological marker of psychological stress and show that newly identified predictive biomarkers such as NUB1, APOL3, MAD1L1, or NKTR are comparable or better state or trait predictors of stress than TL or FKBP5. Over half of the top predictive biomarkers for stress also had prior evidence of involvement in suicide, and the majority of them had evidence in other psychiatric disorders, providing a molecular underpinning for the effects of stress in those disorders. Some of the biomarkers are targets of existing drugs, of potential utility in patient stratification, and pharmacogenomics approaches. Based on our studies and analyses, the biomarkers with the best overall convergent functional evidence (CFE) for involvement in stress were FKBP5, DDX6, B2M, LAIR1, RTN4, and NUB1. Moreover, the biomarker gene expression signatures yielded leads for possible new drug candidates and natural compounds upon bioinformatics drug repurposing analyses, such as calcium folinate and betulin. Our work may lead to improved diagnosis and treatment for stress disorders such as PTSD, that result in decreased quality of life and adverse outcomes, including addictions, violence, and suicide.

Towards precision medicine for pain: diagnostic biomarkers and repurposed drugs.

We endeavored to identify objective blood biomarkers for pain, a subjective sensation with a biological basis, using a stepwise discovery, prioritization, validation, and testing in independent cohorts design. We studied psychiatric patients, a high risk group for co-morbid pain disorders and increased perception of pain. For discovery, we used a powerful within-subject longitudinal design. We were successful in identifying blood gene expression biomarkers that were predictive of pain state, and of future emergency department (ED) visits for pain, more so when personalized by gender and diagnosis. MFAP3, which had no prior evidence in the literature for involvement in pain, had the most robust empirical evidence from our discovery and validation steps, and was a strong predictor for pain in the independent cohorts, particularly in females and males with PTSD. Other biomarkers with best overall convergent functional evidence for involvement in pain were GNG7, CNTN1, LY9, CCDC144B, and GBP1. Some of the individual biomarkers identified are targets of existing drugs. Moreover, the biomarker gene expression signatures were used for bioinformatic drug repurposing analyses, yielding leads for possible new drug candidates such as SC-560 (an NSAID), and amoxapine (an antidepressant), as well as natural compounds such as pyridoxine (vitamin B6), cyanocobalamin (vitamin B12), and apigenin (a plant flavonoid). Our work may help mitigate the diagnostic and treatment dilemmas that have contributed to the current opioid epidemic.

Precision medicine for suicidality: from universality to subtypes and personalization.

Suicide remains a clear, present and increasing public health problem, despite being a potentially preventable tragedy. Its incidence is particularly high in people with overt or un(der)diagnosed psychiatric disorders. Objective and precise identification of individuals at risk, ways of monitoring response to treatments and novel preventive therapeutics need to be discovered, employed and widely deployed. We sought to investigate whether blood gene expression biomarkers for suicide (that is, a 'liquid biopsy' approach) can be identified that are more universal in nature, working across psychiatric diagnoses and genders, using larger cohorts than in previous studies. Such markers may reflect and/or be a proxy for the core biology of suicide. We were successful in this endeavor, using a comprehensive stepwise approach, leading to a wealth of findings. Steps 1, 2 and 3 were discovery, prioritization and validation for tracking suicidality, resulting in a Top Dozen list of candidate biomarkers comprising the top biomarkers from each step, as well as a larger list of 148 candidate biomarkers that survived Bonferroni correction in the validation step. Step 4 was testing the Top Dozen list and Bonferroni biomarker list for predictive ability for suicidal ideation (SI) and for future hospitalizations for suicidality in independent cohorts, leading to the identification of completely novel predictive biomarkers (such as CLN5 and AK2), as well as reinforcement of ours and others previous findings in the field (such as SLC4A4 and SKA2). Additionally, we examined whether subtypes of suicidality can be identified based on mental state at the time of high SI and identified four potential subtypes: high anxiety, low mood, combined and non-affective (psychotic). Such subtypes may delineate groups of individuals that are more homogenous in terms of suicidality biology and behavior. We also studied a more personalized approach, by psychiatric diagnosis and gender, with a focus on bipolar males, the highest risk group. Such a personalized approach may be more sensitive to gender differences and to the impact of psychiatric co-morbidities and medications. We compared testing the universal biomarkers in everybody versus testing by subtypes versus personalized by gender and diagnosis, and show that the subtype and personalized approaches permit enhanced precision of predictions for different universal biomarkers. In particular, LHFP appears to be a strong predictor for suicidality in males with depression. We also directly examined whether biomarkers discovered using male bipolars only are better predictors in a male bipolar independent cohort than universal biomarkers and show evidence for a possible advantage of personalization. We identified completely novel biomarkers (such as SPTBN1 and C7orf73), and reinforced previously known biomarkers (such as PTEN and SAT1). For diagnostic ability testing purposes, we also examined as predictors phenotypic measures as apps (for suicide risk (CFI-S, Convergent Functional Information for Suicidality) and for anxiety and mood (SASS, Simplified Affective State Scale)) by themselves, as well as in combination with the top biomarkers (the combination being our a priori primary endpoint), to provide context and enhance precision of predictions. We obtained area under the curves of 90% for SI and 77% for future hospitalizations in independent cohorts. Step 5 was to look for mechanistic understanding, starting with examining evidence for the Top Dozen and Bonferroni biomarkers for involvement in other psychiatric and non-psychiatric disorders, as a mechanism for biological predisposition and vulnerability. The biomarkers we identified also provide a window towards understanding the biology of suicide, implicating biological pathways related to neurogenesis, programmed cell death and insulin signaling from the universal biomarkers, as well as mTOR signaling from the male bipolar biomarkers. In particular, HTR2A increase coupled with ARRB1 and GSK3B decreases in expression in suicidality may provide a synergistic mechanistical corrective target, as do SLC4A4 increase coupled with AHCYL1 and AHCYL2 decrease. Step 6 was to move beyond diagnostics and mechanistical risk assessment, towards providing a foundation for personalized therapeutics. Items scored positive in the CFI-S and subtypes identified by SASS in different individuals provide targets for personalized (psycho)therapy. Some individual biomarkers are targets of existing drugs used to treat mood disorders and suicidality (lithium, clozapine and omega-3 fatty acids), providing a means toward pharmacogenomics stratification of patients and monitoring of response to treatment. Such biomarkers merit evaluation in clinical trials. Bioinformatics drug repurposing analyses with the gene expression biosignatures of the Top Dozen and Bonferroni-validated universal biomarkers identified novel potential therapeutics for suicidality, such as ebselen (a lithium mimetic), piracetam (a nootropic), chlorogenic acid (a polyphenol) and metformin (an antidiabetic and possible longevity promoting drug). Finally, based on the totality of our data and of the evidence in the field to date, a convergent functional evidence score prioritizing biomarkers that have all around evidence (track suicidality, predict it, are reflective of biological predisposition and are potential drug targets) brought to the fore APOE and IL6 from among the universal biomarkers, suggesting an inflammatory/accelerated aging component that may be a targetable common denominator.

Mood, stress and longevity: convergence on ANK3.

Antidepressants have been shown to improve longevity in C. elegans. It is plausible that orthologs of genes involved in mood regulation and stress response are involved in such an effect. We sought to understand the underlying biology. First, we analyzed the transcriptome from worms treated with the antidepressant mianserin, previously identified in a large-scale unbiased drug screen as promoting increased lifespan in worms. We identified the most robust treatment-related changes in gene expression, and identified the corresponding human orthologs. Our analysis uncovered a series of genes and biological pathways that may be at the interface between antidepressant effects and longevity, notably pathways involved in drug metabolism/degradation (nicotine and melatonin). Second, we examined which of these genes overlap with genes which may be involved in depressive symptoms in an aging non-psychiatric human population (n=3577), discovered using a genome-wide association study (GWAS) approach in a design with extremes of distribution of phenotype. Third, we used a convergent functional genomics (CFG) approach to prioritize these genes for relevance to mood disorders and stress. The top gene identified was ANK3. To validate our findings, we conducted genetic and gene-expression studies, in C. elegans and in humans. We studied C. elegans inactivating mutants for ANK3/unc-44, and show that they survive longer than wild-type, particularly in older worms, independently of mianserin treatment. We also show that some ANK3/unc-44 expression is necessary for the effects of mianserin on prolonging lifespan and survival in the face of oxidative stress, particularly in younger worms. Wild-type ANK3/unc-44 increases in expression with age in C. elegans, and is maintained at lower youthful levels by mianserin treatment. These lower levels may be optimal in terms of longevity, offering a favorable balance between sufficient oxidative stress resistance in younger worms and survival effects in older worms. Thus, ANK3/unc-44 may represent an example of antagonistic pleiotropy, in which low-expression level in young animals are beneficial, but the age-associated increase becomes detrimental. Inactivating mutations in ANK3/unc-44 reverse this effect and cause detrimental effects in young animals (sensitivity to oxidative stress) and beneficial effect in old animals (increased survival). In humans, we studied if the most significant single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) for depressive symptoms in ANK3 from our GWAS has a relationship to lifespan, and show a trend towards longer lifespan in individuals with the risk allele for depressive symptoms in men (odds ratio (OR) 1.41, P=0.031) but not in women (OR 1.08, P=0.33). We also examined whether ANK3, by itself or in a panel with other top CFG-prioritized genes, acts as a blood gene-expression biomarker for biological age, in two independent cohorts, one of live psychiatric patients (n=737), and one of suicide completers from the coroner's office (n=45). We show significantly lower levels of ANK3 expression in chronologically younger individuals than in middle age individuals, with a diminution of that effect in suicide completers, who presumably have been exposed to more severe and acute negative mood and stress. Of note, ANK3 was previously reported to be overexpressed in fibroblasts from patients with Hutchinson-Gilford progeria syndrome, a form of accelerated aging. Taken together, these studies uncover ANK3 and other genes in our dataset as biological links between mood, stress and longevity/aging, that may be biomarkers as well as targets for preventive or therapeutic interventions. Drug repurposing bioinformatics analyses identified the relatively innocuous omega-3 fatty acid DHA (docosahexaenoic acid), piracetam, quercetin, vitamin D and resveratrol as potential longevity promoting compounds, along with a series of existing drugs, such as estrogen-like compounds, antidiabetics and sirolimus/rapamycin. Intriguingly, some of our top candidate genes for mood and stress-modulated longevity were changed in expression in opposite direction in previous studies in the Alzheimer disease. Additionally, a whole series of others were changed in expression in opposite direction in our previous studies on suicide, suggesting the possibility of a "life switch" actively controlled by mood and stress.

Towards understanding and predicting suicidality in women: biomarkers and clinical risk assessment.

Women are under-represented in research on suicidality to date. Although women have a lower rate of suicide completion than men, due in part to the less-violent methods used, they have a higher rate of suicide attempts. Our group has previously identified genomic (blood gene expression biomarkers) and clinical information (apps) predictors for suicidality in men. We now describe pilot studies in women. We used a powerful within-participant discovery approach to identify genes that change in expression between no suicidal ideation (no SI) and high suicidal ideation (high SI) states (n=12 participants out of a cohort of 51 women psychiatric participants followed longitudinally, with diagnoses of bipolar disorder, depression, schizoaffective disorder and schizophrenia). We then used a Convergent Functional Genomics (CFG) approach to prioritize the candidate biomarkers identified in the discovery step by using all the prior evidence in the field. Next, we validated for suicidal behavior the top-ranked biomarkers for SI, in a demographically matched cohort of women suicide completers from the coroner's office (n=6), by assessing which markers were stepwise changed from no SI to high SI to suicide completers. We then tested the 50 biomarkers that survived Bonferroni correction in the validation step, as well as top increased and decreased biomarkers from the discovery and prioritization steps, in a completely independent test cohort of women psychiatric disorder participants for prediction of SI (n=33) and in a future follow-up cohort of psychiatric disorder participants for prediction of psychiatric hospitalizations due to suicidality (n=24). Additionally, we examined how two clinical instruments in the form of apps, Convergent Functional Information for Suicidality (CFI-S) and Simplified Affective State Scale (SASS), previously tested in men, perform in women. The top CFI-S item distinguishing high SI from no SI states was the chronic stress of social isolation. We then showed how the clinical information apps combined with the 50 validated biomarkers into a broad predictor (UP-Suicide), our apriori primary end point, predicts suicidality in women. UP-Suicide had a receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) area under the curve (AUC) of 82% for predicting SI and an AUC of 78% for predicting future hospitalizations for suicidality. Some of the individual components of the UP-Suicide showed even better results. SASS had an AUC of 81% for predicting SI, CFI-S had an AUC of 84% and the combination of the two apps had an AUC of 87%. The top biomarker from our sequential discovery, prioritization and validation steps, BCL2, predicted future hospitalizations due to suicidality with an AUC of 89%, and the panel of 50 validated biomarkers (BioM-50) predicted future hospitalizations due to suicidality with an AUC of 94%. The best overall single blood biomarker for predictions was PIK3C3 with an AUC of 65% for SI and an AUC of 90% for future hospitalizations. Finally, we sought to understand the biology of the biomarkers. BCL2 and GSK3B, the top CFG scoring validated biomarkers, as well as PIK3C3, have anti-apoptotic and neurotrophic effects, are decreased in expression in suicidality and are known targets of the anti-suicidal mood stabilizer drug lithium, which increases their expression and/or activity. Circadian clock genes were overrepresented among the top markers. Notably, PER1, increased in expression in suicidality, had an AUC of 84% for predicting future hospitalizations, and CSNK1A1, decreased in expression, had an AUC of 96% for predicting future hospitalizations. Circadian clock abnormalities are related to mood disorder, and sleep abnormalities have been implicated in suicide. Docosahexaenoic acid signaling was one of the top biological pathways overrepresented in validated biomarkers, which is of interest given the potential therapeutic and prophylactic benefits of omega-3 fatty acids. Some of the top biomarkers from the current work in women showed co-directionality of change in expression with our previous work in men, whereas others had changes in opposite directions, underlying the issue of biological context and differences in suicidality between the two genders. With this study, we begin to shed much needed light in the area of female suicidality, identify useful objective predictors and help understand gender commonalities and differences. During the conduct of the study, one participant committed suicide. In retrospect, when the analyses were completed, her UP-Suicide risk prediction score was at the 100 percentile of all participants tested.

Understanding and predicting suicidality using a combined genomic and clinical risk assessment approach.

Worldwide, one person dies every 40 seconds by suicide, a potentially preventable tragedy. A limiting step in our ability to intervene is the lack of objective, reliable predictors. We have previously provided proof of principle for the use of blood gene expression biomarkers to predict future hospitalizations due to suicidality, in male bipolar disorder participants. We now generalize the discovery, prioritization, validation, and testing of such markers across major psychiatric disorders (bipolar disorder, major depressive disorder, schizoaffective disorder, and schizophrenia) in male participants, to understand commonalities and differences. We used a powerful within-participant discovery approach to identify genes that change in expression between no suicidal ideation and high suicidal ideation states (n=37 participants out of a cohort of 217 psychiatric participants followed longitudinally). We then used a convergent functional genomics (CFG) approach with existing prior evidence in the field to prioritize the candidate biomarkers identified in the discovery step. Next, we validated the top biomarkers from the prioritization step for relevance to suicidal behavior, in a demographically matched cohort of suicide completers from the coroner's office (n=26). The biomarkers for suicidal ideation only are enriched for genes involved in neuronal connectivity and schizophrenia, the biomarkers also validated for suicidal behavior are enriched for genes involved in neuronal activity and mood. The 76 biomarkers that survived Bonferroni correction after validation for suicidal behavior map to biological pathways involved in immune and inflammatory response, mTOR signaling and growth factor regulation. mTOR signaling is necessary for the effects of the rapid-acting antidepressant agent ketamine, providing a novel biological rationale for its possible use in treating acute suicidality. Similarly, MAOB, a target of antidepressant inhibitors, was one of the increased biomarkers for suicidality. We also identified other potential therapeutic targets or biomarkers for drugs known to mitigate suicidality, such as omega-3 fatty acids, lithium and clozapine. Overall, 14% of the top candidate biomarkers also had evidence for involvement in psychological stress response, and 19% for involvement in programmed cell death/cellular suicide (apoptosis). It may be that in the face of adversity (stress), death mechanisms are turned on at a cellular (apoptosis) and organismal level. Finally, we tested the top increased and decreased biomarkers from the discovery for suicidal ideation (CADM1, CLIP4, DTNA, KIF2C), prioritization with CFG for prior evidence (SAT1, SKA2, SLC4A4), and validation for behavior in suicide completers (IL6, MBP, JUN, KLHDC3) steps in a completely independent test cohort of psychiatric participants for prediction of suicidal ideation (n=108), and in a future follow-up cohort of psychiatric participants (n=157) for prediction of psychiatric hospitalizations due to suicidality. The best individual biomarker across psychiatric diagnoses for predicting suicidal ideation was SLC4A4, with a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) area under the curve (AUC) of 72%. For bipolar disorder in particular, SLC4A4 predicted suicidal ideation with an AUC of 93%, and future hospitalizations with an AUC of 70%. SLC4A4 is involved in brain extracellular space pH regulation. Brain pH has been implicated in the pathophysiology of acute panic attacks. We also describe two new clinical information apps, one for affective state (simplified affective state scale, SASS) and one for suicide risk factors (Convergent Functional Information for Suicide, CFI-S), and how well they predict suicidal ideation across psychiatric diagnoses (AUC of 85% for SASS, AUC of 89% for CFI-S). We hypothesized a priori, based on our previous work, that the integration of the top biomarkers and the clinical information into a universal predictive measure (UP-Suicide) would show broad-spectrum predictive ability across psychiatric diagnoses. Indeed, the UP-Suicide was able to predict suicidal ideation across psychiatric diagnoses with an AUC of 92%. For bipolar disorder, it predicted suicidal ideation with an AUC of 98%, and future hospitalizations with an AUC of 94%. Of note, both types of tests we developed (blood biomarkers and clinical information apps) do not require asking the individual assessed if they have thoughts of suicide, as individuals who are truly suicidal often do not share that information with clinicians. We propose that the widespread use of such risk prediction tests as part of routine or targeted healthcare assessments will lead to early disease interception followed by preventive lifestyle modifications and proactive treatment.

Psychiatric blood biomarkers: avoiding jumping to premature negative or positive conclusions.

Blood biomarkers may provide a scientifically useful and clinically usable peripheral signal in psychiatry, as they have been doing for other fields of medicine. Jumping to premature conclusions, negative or positive, can create confusion in this field. Reproducibility is a hallmark of good science. We discuss some recent examples from this dynamic field, and show some new data in support of previously published biomarkers for suicidality (SAT1, MARCKS and SKA2). Methodological clarity and rigor in terms of biomarker discovery, validation and testing is needed. We propose a set of principles for what constitutes a good biomarker, similar in spirit to the Koch postulates used at the birth of the field of infectious diseases.

Genetic risk prediction and neurobiological understanding of alcoholism.

We have used a translational Convergent Functional Genomics (CFG) approach to discover genes involved in alcoholism, by gene-level integration of genome-wide association study (GWAS) data from a German alcohol dependence cohort with other genetic and gene expression data, from human and animal model studies, similar to our previous work in bipolar disorder and schizophrenia. A panel of all the nominally significant P-value SNPs in the top candidate genes discovered by CFG  (n=135 genes, 713 SNPs) was used to generate a genetic  risk prediction score (GRPS), which showed a trend towards significance (P=0.053) in separating  alcohol dependent individuals from controls in an independent German test cohort. We then validated and prioritized our top findings from this discovery work, and subsequently tested them in three independent cohorts, from two continents. A panel of all the nominally significant P-value single-nucleotide length polymorphisms (SNPs) in the top candidate genes discovered by CFG (n=135 genes, 713 SNPs) were used to generate a Genetic Risk Prediction Score (GRPS), which showed a trend towards significance (P=0.053) in separating alcohol-dependent individuals from controls in an independent German test cohort. In order to validate and prioritize the key genes that drive behavior without some of the pleiotropic environmental confounds present in humans, we used a stress-reactive animal model of alcoholism developed by our group, the D-box binding protein (DBP) knockout mouse, consistent with the surfeit of stress theory of addiction proposed by Koob and colleagues. A much smaller panel (n=11 genes, 66 SNPs) of the top CFG-discovered genes for alcoholism, cross-validated and prioritized by this stress-reactive animal model showed better predictive ability in the independent German test cohort (P=0.041). The top CFG scoring gene for alcoholism from the initial discovery step, synuclein alpha (SNCA) remained the top gene after the stress-reactive animal model cross-validation. We also tested this small panel of genes in two other independent test cohorts from the United States, one with alcohol dependence (P=0.00012) and one with alcohol abuse (a less severe form of alcoholism; P=0.0094). SNCA by itself was able to separate alcoholics from controls in the alcohol-dependent cohort (P=0.000013) and the alcohol abuse cohort (P=0.023). So did eight other genes from the panel of 11 genes taken individually, albeit to a lesser extent and/or less broadly across cohorts. SNCA, GRM3 and MBP survived strict Bonferroni correction for multiple comparisons. Taken together, these results suggest that our stress-reactive DBP animal model helped to validate and prioritize from the CFG-discovered genes some of the key behaviorally relevant genes for alcoholism. These genes fall into a series of biological pathways involved in signal transduction, transmission of nerve impulse (including myelination) and cocaine addiction. Overall, our work provides leads towards a better understanding of illness, diagnostics and therapeutics, including treatment with omega-3 fatty acids. We also examined the overlap between the top candidate genes for alcoholism from this work and the top candidate genes for bipolar disorder, schizophrenia, anxiety from previous CFG analyses conducted by us, as well as cross-tested genetic risk predictions. This revealed the significant genetic overlap with other major psychiatric disorder domains, providing a basis for comorbidity and dual diagnosis, and placing alcohol use in the broader context of modulating the mental landscape.

Discovery and validation of blood biomarkers for suicidality.

Suicides are a leading cause of death in psychiatric patients, and in society at large. Developing more quantitative and objective ways (biomarkers) for predicting and tracking suicidal states would have immediate practical applications and positive societal implications. We undertook such an endeavor. First, building on our previous blood biomarker work in mood disorders and psychosis, we decided to identify blood gene expression biomarkers for suicidality, looking at differential expression of genes in the blood of subjects with a major mood disorder (bipolar disorder), a high-risk population prone to suicidality. We compared no suicidal ideation (SI) states and high SI states using a powerful intrasubject design, as well as an intersubject case-case design, to generate a list of differentially expressed genes. Second, we used a comprehensive Convergent Functional Genomics (CFG) approach to identify and prioritize from the list of differentially expressed gene biomarkers of relevance to suicidality. CFG integrates multiple independent lines of evidence-genetic and functional genomic data-as a Bayesian strategy for identifying and prioritizing findings, reducing the false-positives and false-negatives inherent in each individual approach. Third, we examined whether expression levels of the blood biomarkers identified by us in the live bipolar subject cohort are actually altered in the blood in an age-matched cohort of suicide completers collected from the coroner's office, and report that 13 out of the 41 top CFG scoring biomarkers (32%) show step-wise significant change from no SI to high SI states, and then to the suicide completers group. Six out of them (15%) remained significant after strict Bonferroni correction for multiple comparisons. Fourth, we show that the blood levels of SAT1 (spermidine/spermine N1-acetyltransferase 1), the top biomarker identified by us, at the time of testing for this study, differentiated future as well as past hospitalizations with suicidality, in a live cohort of bipolar disorder subjects, and exhibited a similar but weaker pattern in a live cohort of psychosis (schizophrenia/schizoaffective disorder) subjects. Three other (phosphatase and tensin homolog (PTEN), myristoylated alanine-rich protein kinase C substrate (MARCKS), and mitogen-activated protein kinase kinase kinase 3 (MAP3K3)) of the six biomarkers that survived Bonferroni correction showed similar but weaker effects. Taken together, the prospective and retrospective hospitalization data suggests SAT1, PTEN, MARCKS and MAP3K3 might be not only state biomarkers but trait biomarkers as well. Fifth, we show how a multi-dimensional approach using SAT1 blood expression levels and two simple visual-analog scales for anxiety and mood enhances predictions of future hospitalizations for suicidality in the bipolar cohort (receiver-operating characteristic curve with area under the curve of 0.813). Of note, this simple approach does not directly ask about SI, which some individuals may deny or choose not to share with clinicians. Lastly, we conducted bioinformatic analyses to identify biological pathways, mechanisms and medication targets. Overall, suicidality may be underlined, at least in part, by biological mechanisms related to stress, inflammation and apoptosis.

Convergent functional genomics of schizophrenia: from comprehensive understanding to genetic risk prediction.

We have used a translational convergent functional genomics (CFG) approach to identify and prioritize genes involved in schizophrenia, by gene-level integration of genome-wide association study data with other genetic and gene expression studies in humans and animal models. Using this polyevidence scoring and pathway analyses, we identify top genes (DISC1, TCF4, MBP, MOBP, NCAM1, NRCAM, NDUFV2, RAB18, as well as ADCYAP1, BDNF, CNR1, COMT, DRD2, DTNBP1, GAD1, GRIA1, GRIN2B, HTR2A, NRG1, RELN, SNAP-25, TNIK), brain development, myelination, cell adhesion, glutamate receptor signaling, G-protein-coupled receptor signaling and cAMP-mediated signaling as key to pathophysiology and as targets for therapeutic intervention. Overall, the data are consistent with a model of disrupted connectivity in schizophrenia, resulting from the effects of neurodevelopmental environmental stress on a background of genetic vulnerability. In addition, we show how the top candidate genes identified by CFG can be used to generate a genetic risk prediction score (GRPS) to aid schizophrenia diagnostics, with predictive ability in independent cohorts. The GRPS also differentiates classic age of onset schizophrenia from early onset and late-onset disease. We also show, in three independent cohorts, two European American and one African American, increasing overlap, reproducibility and consistency of findings from single-nucleotide polymorphisms to genes, then genes prioritized by CFG, and ultimately at the level of biological pathways and mechanisms. Finally, we compared our top candidate genes for schizophrenia from this analysis with top candidate genes for bipolar disorder and anxiety disorders from previous CFG analyses conducted by us, as well as findings from the fields of autism and Alzheimer. Overall, our work maps the genomic and biological landscape for schizophrenia, providing leads towards a better understanding of illness, diagnostics and therapeutics. It also reveals the significant genetic overlap with other major psychiatric disorder domains, suggesting the need for improved nosology.

Vertebrate herbivory impacts seedling recruitment more than niche partitioning or density-dependent mortality.

In tropical forests, resource-based niches and density-dependent mortality are mutually compatible mechanisms that can act simultaneously to limit seedling populations. Differences in the strengths of these mechanisms will determine their roles in maintaining species coexistence. In the first assessment of these mechanisms in a Congo Basin forest, we quantified their relative strengths and tested the extent to which density-dependent mortality is driven by the distance-dependent behavior of seed and seedling predators predicted by the Janzen-Connell hypothesis. We conducted a large-scale seed addition experiment for five randomly selected tropical tree species, caging a subset of seed addition quadrats against vertebrate predators. We then developed models to assess the mechanisms that determine seedling emergence (three months after seed addition) and survival (two years after seed addition). As predicted, both niche differentiation and density-dependent mortality limited seedling recruitment, but predation had the strongest effects on seedling emergence and survival. Seedling species responded differently to naturally occurring environmental variation among sites, including variation in light levels and soil characteristics, supporting predictions of niche-based theories of tropical tree species coexistence. The addition of higher densities of seeds into quadrats initially led to greater seedling emergence, but survival to two years decreased with seed density. Seed and seedling predation reduced recruitment below levels maintained by density-dependent mortality, an indication that predators largely determine the population size of tree seedlings. Seedling recruitment was unrelated to the distance to or density of conspecific adult trees, suggesting that recruitment patterns are generated by generalist vertebrate herbivores rather than the specialized predators predicted by the Janzen-Connell hypothesis. If the role of seed and seedling predation in limiting seedling recruitment is a general phenomenon, then the relative abundances of tree species might largely depend on species-specific adaptations to avoid, survive, and recover from damage induced by vertebrate herbivores. Likewise, population declines of herbivorous vertebrate species (many of which are large and hunted) may trigger shifts in species composition of tropical forests.

Plants as reef fish: fitting the functional form of seedling recruitment.

The life histories of many species depend first on dispersal to local sites and then on establishment. After dispersal, density-independent and density-dependent mortalities modify propagule supply, determining the number of individuals that establish. Because multiple factors influence recruitment, the dichotomy of propagule versus establishment limitation is best viewed as a continuum along which the strength of propagule or establishment limitation changes with propagule input. To evaluate the relative importance of seed and establishment limitation for plants, we (1) describe the shape of the recruitment function and (2) use limitation and elasticity analyses to quantify the sensitivity of recruitment to perturbations in seed limitation and density-independent and density-dependent mortality. Using 36 seed augmentation studies for 18 species, we tested four recruitment functions against one another. Although the linear model (accounting for seed limitation and density-independent mortality) fitted the largest number of studies, the nonlinear Beverton-Holt model (accounting for density-dependent mortality) performed better at high densities of seed augmentation. For the 18 species, seed limitation constrained population size more than other sources of limitation at ambient conditions. Seedling density reached saturation with increasing seed density in many studies, but at such high densities that seedling density was primarily limited by seed availability rather than microsite availability or density dependence.

Are plant populations seed limited? A critique and meta-analysis of seed addition experiments.

We examine the relative importance of processes that underlie plant population abundance and distribution. Two opposing views dominate the field. One posits that the ability to establish at a site is determined by the availability of suitable microsites (establishment limitation), while the second asserts that recruitment is limited by the availability of seeds (seed limitation). An underlying problem is that establishment and seed limitation are typically viewed as mutually exclusive. We conducted a meta-analysis of seed addition experiments to assess the relative strength of establishment and seed limitation to seedling recruitment. We asked (1) To what degree are populations seed and establishment limited? (2) Under what conditions (e.g., habitats and life-history traits) are species more or less limited by each? (3) How can seed addition studies be better designed to enhance our understanding of plant recruitment? We found that, in keeping with previous studies, most species are seed limited. However, the effects of seed addition are typically small, and most added seeds fail to recruit to the seedling stage. As a result, establishment limitation is stronger than seed limitation. Seed limitation was greater for large-seeded species, species in disturbed microsites, and species with relatively short-lived seed banks. Most seed addition experiments cannot assess the relationship between number of seeds added and number of subsequent recruits. This shortcoming can be overcome by increasing the number and range of seed addition treatments.

Autologous heat shock protein-peptide complexes for vaccination against cancer: from bench to bedside.

Random mutations in cancer cells generate unique antigens in each patient's tumour, warranting a personalized treatment approach. Autologous heat shock protein-peptide complexes (HSPPCs) produced from a patient's cancer tissue provide such a personalized approach without the need to identify the unique antigens contained in the individual vaccine. HSPPCs elicit adaptive and innate immune responses and have been tested in a variety of animal models and different human cancers. Currently, there are more than 150 medical centres worldwide enrolling cancer patients in randomized, controlled Phase III clinical trials testing autologous HSPPCs vaccines. This review summarizes the key steps involved in the translation of HSPPCs--from basic science to advanced clinical investigation.

Identification of a tumor-associated contact-dependent activity which reversibly downregulates cytolytic function of CD8+ T cells.

Tumors elicit an immune response in hosts and yet, paradoxically, often grow progressively with fatal consequences. This phenomenon has been attributed to the possible expression by tumor cells of immunomodulatory factors that overcome the anti-tumor effector functions of both specific and non-specific immune cells. This study reports on the ability of the methylcholanthrene-induced fibrosarcoma, Meth A, as well as other tumors of varied histological origins to downregulate the lytic activity of CD8+ T cells. The suppressive activity is contact-dependent and reversible. As tumor-bearing hosts are rarely immunosuppressed systemically, these findings may explain how local events within the tumor bed subvert the specific anti-tumor immune response.

An experimental test of dietary enzyme modulation in pine warblers Dendroica pinus.

Modulation of gut function is important in an ecological and evolutionary context because it likely determines what food items an animal can and cannot eat. We examined how diet affects activity of digestive enzymes in an omnivorous bird, the pine warbler (Dendroica pinus). Pine warblers were fed insect-based, fruit-based, and seed-based diets for approximately 54 d. We then measured activity of amylase, maltase, sucrase, aminopeptidase-N, trypsin, chymotrypsin, carboxypeptidase A, carboxypeptidase B, pancreatic lipase, and carboxyl ester lipase. We predicted that carbohydrase activities would be highest in birds fed the diet highest in carbohydrates (fruit based), protease activities would be highest in those fed the diet highest in protein (insect based), and lipase activities would be highest in those fed the diets highest in lipid (insect based and seed based). Also, we predicted that pine warblers would exhibit greater dietary modulation of enzyme activity than reported for a less omnivorous congener, the yellow-rumped warbler (Dendroica coronata). All predictions were upheld, supporting the hypothesis that pine warblers modulate the activity of digestive enzymes in proportion to demand from substrates in the diet.

Test, rejection, and reformulation of a chemical reactor-based model of gut function in a fruit-eating bird.

We explored modulation of retention time in cedar waxwings (Bombycilla cedrorum) by feeding them diets varying in hexose concentration. Our goals were to (1) test three predictions of a chemical reactor-based model of how guts might respond optimally to diet shifts; (2) determine whether modulation of retention time can occur quickly, thereby facilitating rapid changes in diet; (3) tease apart the relative influence of ingestion rate and nutrient concentration on retention time; and (4) examine the degree of axial mixing in the intestine and its relationship with retention time. The model's predictions were rejected: mean retention time did not decrease, ingestion rate did not increase, and glucose assimilation efficiency did not decrease with increased hexose concentration of the diet. Instead, birds displayed maximal intake rate at intermediate sugar concentration, and mouth to cloaca mean retention times increased with hexose concentration. Significant modulation of retention time occurred quickly, within 3 h of exposure to a different diet. Birds did equally well in terms of total energy assimilated on diets differing 3.3-fold in hexose concentration (from 500 mmol/L to 1660 mmol/L) but showed reduced intake when fed food with low hexose concentration (110 mmol/L). Far more variation in retention time was explained by direct effects of ingestion rate than by direct effects of hexose concentration. Finally, a gut dispersion index that measured degree of axial mixing was positively correlated with mean retention time, indicating that higher retention times are accompanied by increased axial mixing. We propose a modification of the assumptions of the original model. The resulting "osmotic constraint" model better captures the interaction between feeding rate and digestive function in fruit-eating birds.