A methodology for using Lambda phages as a proxy for pathogen transmission in hospitals.

BACKGROUND: One major concern in hospitalized patients is acquiring infections from pathogens borne on surfaces, patients, and healthcare workers (HCWs). Fundamental to controlling healthcare-associated infections is identifying the sources of pathogens, monitoring the processes responsible for their transmission, and evaluating the efficacy of the procedures employed for restricting their transmission. AIM: To present a method using the bacteriophage Lambda (λ) to achieve these ends. METHODS: Defined densities of multiple genetically marked λ phages were inoculated at known hotspots for contamination on high-fidelity mannequins. HCWs then entered a pre-sanitized simulated hospital room and performed a series of patient care tasks on the mannequins. Sampling occurred on the scrubs and hands of the HCWs, as well as previously defined high-touch surfaces in hospital rooms. Following sampling, the rooms were decontaminated using procedures demonstrated to be effective. Following the conclusion of the simulation, the samples were tested for the presence, identity, and densities of these λ phages. FINDINGS: The data generated enabled the determination of the sources and magnitude of contamination caused by the breakdown of established infection prevention practices by HCWs. This technique enabled the standardized tracking of multiple contaminants during a single episode of patient care. Unlike other biological surrogates, λ phages are susceptible to common hospital disinfectants, and allow for a more accurate evaluation of pathogen transmission. CONCLUSION: Whereas our application of these methods focused on healthcare-associated infections and the role of HCW behaviours in their spread, these methods could be employed for identifying the sources and sites of microbial contamination in other settings.

Episodic selection and the maintenance of competence and natural transformation in Bacillus subtilis.

We present a new hypothesis for the selective pressures responsible for maintaining natural competence and transformation. Our hypothesis is based in part on the observation that in Bacillus subtilis, where transformation is widespread, competence is associated with periods of nongrowth in otherwise growing populations. As postulated for the phenomenon of persistence, the short-term fitness cost associated with the production of transiently nongrowing bacteria can be compensated for and the capacity to produce these competent cells can be favored due to episodes where the population encounters conditions that kill dividing bacteria. With the aid of a mathematical model, we demonstrate that under realistic conditions this "episodic selection" for transiently nongrowing (persisting) bacteria can maintain competence for the uptake and expression of exogenous DNA transformation. We also show that these conditions for maintaining competence are dramatically augmented even by rare episodes where selection favors transformants. Using experimental populations of B. subtilis and antibiotic-mediated episodic selection, we test and provide support for the validity of the assumptions behind this model and the predictions generated from our analysis of its properties. We discuss the potential generality of episodic selection for the maintenance of competence in other naturally transforming species of bacteria and critically evaluate other hypotheses for the maintenance (and evolution) of competence and their relationship to this hypothesis.

Phenotypic tolerance: antibiotic enrichment of noninherited resistance in bacterial populations.

When growing bacteria are exposed to bactericidal concentrations of antibiotics, the sensitivity of the bacteria to the antibiotic commonly decreases with time, and substantial fractions of the bacteria survive. Using Escherichia coli CAB1 and antibiotics of five different classes (ampicillin, ciprofloxacin, rifampin, streptomycin, and tetracycline), we examine the details of this phenomenon and, with the aid of mathematical models, develop and explore the properties and predictions of three hypotheses that can account for this phenomenon: (i) antibiotic decay, (ii) inherited resistance, and (iii) phenotypic tolerance. Our experiments cause us to reject the first two hypotheses and provide evidence that this phenomenon can be accounted for by the antibiotic-mediated enrichment of subpopulations physiologically tolerant to but genetically susceptible to these antibiotics, phenotypic tolerance. We demonstrate that tolerant subpopulations generated by exposure to one concentration of an antibiotic are also tolerant to higher concentrations of the same antibiotic and can be tolerant to antibiotics of the other four types. Using a mathematical model, we explore the effects of phenotypic tolerance to the microbiological outcome of antibiotic treatment and demonstrate, a priori, that it can have a profound effect on the rate of clearance of the bacteria and under some conditions can prevent clearance that would be achieved in the absence of tolerance.

Models for the spread of resistant pathogens.

I consider three mathematical models of the epidemiology of antibiotic treatment and the evolution of resistance. All of these models explore the relationship between the volume of antibiotic use and the frequency and rate of ascent (or descent) of resistance. The first model is in the population genetics tradition and assumes that in the absence of treatment the frequency of resistance wanes at a rate proportional to the fitness costs associated with resistance, but precipitously ascends to high frequencies in treated patients. The second two models are in the compartment, or SIR, model tradition of infectious disease epidemiology. The first of these considers the relationship between resistance and rates of antibiotic treatment in open communities. The second explores the factors contributing to the frequency of resistance in the closed settings of hospitals and nursing homes. While I give some consideration to the epidemiological and medical implications of the results of the analysis of the properties of these models, for the most part the models are the message. I end with a harangue about the utility of simple mathematics for these considerations and a plea to obtain realistic estimates of the parameters of these models and test the validity of the predictions generated from the analysis of these models.

Minimizing potential resistance: a population dynamics view.

I examine the results of studies that used mathematical models of the epidemiology and population genetics of antibiotic treatment and resistance in open communities and in hospitals to explore the following issues: the relationship between antibiotic consumption and the frequency of antibiotic resistance in bacterial populations in communities and in hospitals; methods of controlling the growth, dissemination, and persistence of antibiotic resistance in these settings; the extent to which resistance can be controlled; and the speed with which the effects of control measures will be realized. In open communities, it will take years or even decades to see substantial reductions in the frequency of antibiotic resistance solely as a result of more prudent (reduced) use of antibiotics. However, if we can restrict the input of resistant bacteria into hospitals, through the application of infection control and other measures, it should be possible to reduce the frequency of resistance and even eliminate resistant bacteria from these institutions in short order.

Epidemiology, evolution, and future of the HIV/AIDS pandemic.

We used mathematical models to address several questions concerning the epidemiologic and evolutionary future of HIV/AIDS in human populations. Our analysis suggests that 1) when HIV first enters a human population, and for many subsequent years, the epidemic is driven by early transmissions, possibly occurring before donors have seroconverted to HIV-positive status; 2) new HIV infections in a subpopulation (risk group) may decline or level off due to the saturation of the susceptible hosts rather than to evolution of the virus or to the efficacy of intervention, education, and public health measures; 3) evolution in humans for resistance to HIV infection or for the infection to engender a lower death rate will require thousands of years and will be achieved only after vast numbers of persons die of AIDS; 4) evolution is unlikely to increase the virulence of HIV; and 5) if HIV chemotherapy reduces the transmissibility of the virus, treating individual patients can reduce the frequency of HIV infections and AIDS deaths in the general population.

Why we don't get sick: the within-host population dynamics of bacterial infections.

To pathogenic microparasites (viruses, bacteria, protozoa, or fungi), we and other mammals (living organisms at large) are little more than soft, thin-walled flasks of culture media. Almost every time we eat, brush our teeth, scrape our skin, have sex, get bitten by insects, and inhale, we are confronted with populations of microbes that are capable of colonizing the mucosa lining our orifices and alimentary tract and proliferating in fluids and cells within us. Nevertheless, we rarely get sick, much less succumb to these infections. The massive numbers of bacteria and other micro- and not-so-micro organisms that abound and replicate in our alimentary tract and cover our skin and the mucosa lining our orifices normally maintain their communities in seemingly peaceful coexistence with the somatic cells that define us. Why don't these microbes invade and proliferate in the culture media within the soft, thin-walled flask that envelops us? Why don't they cause disease and lead to our rapid demise?

Effects of antiviral usage on transmission dynamics of herpes simplex virus type 1 and on antiviral resistance: predictions of mathematical models.

Herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) causes recurrent herpes labialis (RHL), a common disease afflicting up to 40% of adults worldwide. Mathematical models are used to analyze the effect of antiviral treatment on the transmission of, and the prevalence of drug resistance in, HSV-1 in the United States. Three scenarios are analyzed: no antiviral use, the current level of use, and a substantial increase in nucleoside analogue use, such as might occur if topical penciclovir were available over-the-counter for the treatment of RHL. A basic model predicts that present level of nucleoside analogue use has a negligible effect on HSV-1 transmission and that even if use of topical penciclovir for (RHL) increased substantially, the overall prevalence of infectious HSV-1 is unlikely to be reduced by more than 5%. An expanded model, which allows for acquired resistance and includes immunocompromised hosts and other more realistic features, predicts that current antiviral use is unlikely to lead to any noticeable increase in resistance. If antiviral use increases, the resulting rise in resistance in the population will depend primarily on the probability that immunocompetent hosts will acquire permanent resistance upon treatment. This probability is known to be small, but its exact value remains uncertain. If acquired resistance occurs less than once per 2,500 treated episodes, then in the community at large, the frequency of HSV-1 resistance is predicted to increase slowly, if at all (remaining below 0.5% for >50 years), even with extensive nucleoside analogue use. If acquired resistance emerges in 1 of 625 treated episodes (the maximum of an approximate 95% confidence interval derived from the results of several studies of resistance in treated hosts), then the prevalence of infection with resistant HSV-1 could rise from about 0.2% to 1.5 to 3% within 50 years. The limitations of existing data on acquired resistance and the potential impact of acquired resistance if it occurs are discussed, and strategies are suggested for enhancing information on acquired resistance. The predictions of this model contrast with the more rapid increases in antimicrobial resistance anticipated by models and observed for other pathogenic bacteria and viruses. The reasons for these contrasting predictions are discussed.

Concentration-dependent selection of small phenotypic differences in TEM beta-lactamase-mediated antibiotic resistance.

In this paper, the first robust experimental evidence of in vitro and in vivo concentration-dependent selection of low-level antibiotic-resistant genetic variants is described. The work is based on the study of an asymmetric competition assay with pairs of isogenic Escherichia coli strains, differing only (apart from a neutral chromosomal marker) in a single amino acid replacement in a plasmid-mediated TEM-1 beta-lactamase enzyme, which results in the new TEM-12 beta-lactamase. The mixture was challenged by different antibiotic concentrations, both in vitro and in the animal model, and the selective process of the variant population was carefully monitored. A mathematical model was constructed to test the hypothesis that measured growth and killing rates of the individual TEM variants at different antibiotic concentrations could be used to predict quantitatively the strength of selection for TEM-12 observed in competition experiments at these different concentrations.

Natural selection, infectious transfer and the existence conditions for bacterial plasmids.

Despite the near-ubiquity of plasmids in bacterial populations and the profound contribution of infectious gene transfer to the adaptation and evolution of bacteria, the mechanisms responsible for the maintenance of plasmids in bacterial populations are poorly understood. In this article, we address the question of how plasmids manage to persist over evolutionary time. Empirical studies suggest that plasmids are not infectiously transmitted at a rate high enough to be maintained as genetic parasites. In part i, we present a general mathematical proof that if this is the case, then plasmids will not be able to persist indefinitely solely by carrying genes that are beneficial or sometimes beneficial to their host bacteria. Instead, such genes should, in the long run, be incorporated into the bacterial chromosome. If the mobility of host-adaptive genes imposes a cost, that mobility will eventually be lost. In part ii, we illustrate a pair of mechanisms by which plasmids can be maintained indefinitely even when their rates of transmission are too low for them to be genetic parasites. First, plasmids may persist because they can transfer locally adapted genes to newly arriving strains bearing evolutionary innovations, and thereby preserve the local adaptations in the face of background selective sweeps. Second, plasmids may persist because of their ability to shuttle intermittently favored genes back and forth between various (noncompeting) bacterial strains, ecotypes, or even species.

Bacteria are different: observations, interpretations, speculations, and opinions about the mechanisms of adaptive evolution in prokaryotes.

To some extent, the genetic theory of adaptive evolution in bacteria is a simple extension of that developed for sexually reproducing eukaryotes. In other, fundamental ways, the process of adaptive evolution in bacteria is quantitatively and qualitatively different from that of organisms for which recombination is an integral part of the reproduction process. In this speculative and opinionated discussion, we explore these differences. In particular, we consider (i) how, as a consequence of the low rates of recombination, "ordinary" chromosomal gene evolution in bacteria is different from that in organisms where recombination is frequent and (ii) the fundamental role of the horizontal transmission of genes and accessory genetic elements as sources of variation in bacteria. We conclude with speculations about the evolution of accessory elements and their role in the adaptive evolution of bacteria.

Compensatory mutations, antibiotic resistance and the population genetics of adaptive evolution in bacteria.

In the absence of the selecting drugs, chromosomal mutations for resistance to antibiotics and other chemotheraputic agents commonly engender a cost in the fitness of microorganisms. Recent in vivo and in vitro experimental studies of the adaptation to these "costs of resistance" in Escherichia coli, HIV, and Salmonella typhimurium found that evolution in the absence of these drugs commonly results in the ascent of mutations that ameliorate these costs, rather than higher-fitness, drug-sensitive revertants. To ascertain the conditions under which this compensatory evolution, rather than reversion, will occur, we did computer simulations, in vitro experiments, and DNA sequencing studies with low-fitness rpsL (streptomycin-resistant) mutants of E. coli with and without mutations that compensate for the fitness costs of these ribosomal protein mutations. The results of our investigation support the hypothesis that in these experiments, the ascent of intermediate-fitness compensatory mutants, rather than high-fitness revertants, can be attributed to higher rates of compensatory mutations relative to that of reversion and to the numerical bottlenecks associated with serial passage. We argue that these bottlenecks are intrinsic to the population dynamics of parasitic and commensal microbes and discuss the implications of these results to the problem of drug resistance and adaptive evolution in parasitic and commmensal microorganisms in general.

The epidemiology of antibiotic resistance in hospitals: paradoxes and prescriptions.

A simple mathematical model of bacterial transmission within a hospital was used to study the effects of measures to control nosocomial transmission of bacteria and reduce antimicrobial resistance in nosocomial pathogens. The model predicts that: (i) Use of an antibiotic for which resistance is not yet present in a hospital will be positively associated at the individual level (odds ratio) with carriage of bacteria resistant to other antibiotics, but negatively associated at the population level (prevalence). Thus inferences from individual risk factors can yield misleading conclusions about the effect of antibiotic use on resistance to another antibiotic. (ii) Nonspecific interventions that reduce transmission of all bacteria within a hospital will disproportionately reduce the prevalence of colonization with resistant bacteria. (iii) Changes in the prevalence of resistance after a successful intervention will occur on a time scale of weeks to months, considerably faster than in community-acquired infections. Moreover, resistance can decline rapidly in a hospital even if it does not carry a fitness cost. The predictions of the model are compared with those of other models and published data. The implications for resistance control and study design are discussed, along with the limitations and assumptions of the model.

The biological cost of antibiotic resistance.

The frequency and rates of ascent and dissemination of antibiotic resistance in bacterial populations are anticipated to be directly related to the volume of antibiotic use and inversely related to the cost that resistance imposes on the fitness of bacteria. The data available from recent laboratory studies suggest that most, but not all, resistance-determining mutations and accessory elements engender some fitness cost, but those costs are likely to be ameliorated by subsequent evolution.

Population biology, evolution, and infectious disease: convergence and synthesis.

Traditionally, the interest of population and evolutionary biologists in infectious diseases has been almost exclusively in their role as agents of natural selection in higher organisms. Recently, this interest has expanded to include the genetic structure and evolution of microparasite populations, the mechanisms of pathogenesis and the immune response, and the population biology, ecology, and evolutionary consequences of medical and public health interventions. This article describes recent work in these areas, emphasizing the ways in which quantitative, population-biological approaches have been contributing to the understanding of infectious disease and the design and evaluation of interventions for their treatment and prevention.

The population genetics of antibiotic resistance. II: Analytic theory for sustained populations of bacteria in a community of hosts.

The phenomenon of antibiotic resistance is of practical importance and theoretical interest. As a foundation for further studies by simulation, experiment, and observation, we here develop a mathematical model for the dynamics of resistance among the bacteria resident in a population of hosts. The model incorporates the effects of natural selection within untreated hosts, colonization by bacteria from the environment, and the rapid increase of resistance in hosts who receive antibiotics. We derive explicit formulas for the distribution of resistance among hosts and for the rise or fall of resistance when the frequency of treatment is changed.