Benchmarking cesarean delivery rates using machine learning-derived optimal classification trees.

OBJECTIVE: To establish a case-adjusted hospital-specific performance evaluation tool using machine learning methodology for cesarean delivery. DATA SOURCES: Secondary data were collected from patients between January 1, 2015 and February 28, 2018 using a hospital's "Electronic Data Warehouse" database from Illinois, USA. STUDY DESIGN: The machine learning methodology of optimal classification trees (OCTs) was used to predict cesarean delivery rate by physician group, thereby establishing the case-adjusted benchmarking standards in comparison to the overall hospital cesarean delivery rate. Outcomes of specific patient populations of each participating practice were predicted, as if each were treated in the overall hospital environment. The resulting OCTs estimate physician group expected cesarean delivery outcomes, both aggregate and in specific clinical situations. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS: Twelve thousand eight hunderd and forty one singleton, vertex, term deliveries, cared for by practices with ≥50 births. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The overall rate of cesarean delivery was 18.6% (n = 2384), with a range of 13.3%-33.7% amongst 22 physician practices. An optimal decision tree was used to create a prediction model for the hospital overall, which defined 23 patient cohorts divided by 46 nodes. The model's performance for prediction of cesarean delivery is as follows: area under the curve 0.73, sensitivity 98.4%, specificity 16.1%, positive predictive value 83.7%, negative predictive value 70.6%. Comparisons with the overall hospital's specific-case adjusted benchmark groups revealed that several groups outperformed the overall hospital benchmark, and some practice groups underperformed in comparison to the overall hospital benchmark. CONCLUSIONS: OCT benchmarking can assess physician practice-specific case-adjusted performance, both overall and clinical situation-specific, and can serve as a valuable tool for hospital self-assessment and quality improvement.

Pushing the limits: perinatal outcomes beyond prolonged second stage.

Objective: To evaluate whether extremely prolonged second stage of labor in nulliparous women affects mode of delivery and perinatal outcomes.Methods: We performed a retrospective cohort study of nulliparous women with singleton gestations and cephalic presentation who reached 10 cm of cervical dilation at gestational age 36 0/7-41 6/7. Women were stratified by epidural status. Deliveries were compared by length of second stage: 0-179 min (normal second stage, NSS), 180-299 min (prolonged second stage, PSS), and ≥300 min (extremely prolonged second stage, EPSS). Primary outcome was incidence of vaginal delivery. Secondary outcomes were maternal and neonatal morbidities.Results: Six hundred sixty-one women were evaluated; overall, 92.7% (613/661) of the patients delivered vaginally, with 84.6% (559/661) of women undergoing spontaneous vaginal delivery. In women with epidural anesthesia, 90.6% (446/492) delivered vaginally (97.2% of NSS, 95.1% of PSS, and 69.2% of EPSS). In women without epidural anesthesia, 98.8% (167/169) delivered vaginally (99.3% of NSS, 100.0% of PSS, and 87.5% of EPSS). Women with epidural anesthesia and EPSS had a higher rate of postpartum hemorrhage (aOR: 8.52; 95% CI: 3.99-18.19) and third-degree laceration when compared to NSS (aOR: 5.87; 95% CI: 1.71-20.17). EPSS neonates had a higher rate of CPAP use (OR: 3.99; 95% CI: 1.82-8.74) and significantly higher birth weight (p < .0001) and composite neonatal outcomes (OR: 4.98; 95% CI: 2.34-10.59) compared to NSS.Conclusion: In nulliparous women at term with singleton gestations who reached second stage, the chance of vaginal delivery was 92.7%; even after 5 h of second stage, most women delivered via vaginal delivery (70.4%, 81/115). In those with epidural anesthesia, the PSS group had similar perinatal outcomes as the NSS group, whereas the EPSS group had significantly worse perinatal outcomes. Second stage ≥5 h is a potential tipping point for hazardous perinatal outcomes.

Pushing the bounds of second stage in term nulliparas with a predictive model.

BACKGROUND: Management of the second stage of labor continues to be a clinical challenge with unclear indications for abandoning attempts at spontaneous vaginal delivery. The conflict between diminishing chances of spontaneous vaginal delivery and increasing maternal and neonatal morbidity is difficult to quantify, leading to significant variation in management between providers, and variation in rates of operative vaginal delivery and cesarean birth. OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to develop an hourly prediction model for spontaneous vaginal delivery during the second stage of labor in nulliparous women with epidural anesthesia. STUDY DESIGN: This was a secondary analysis of the Consortium for Safe Labor database. The Consortium for Safe Labor collected data from 228,652 patients at 19 hospitals in the United State from 2002 through 2008. Primary outcome was delivery type per hour of second stage: spontaneous vaginal delivery vs operative delivery (operative vaginal and cesarean delivery). Inclusion criteria were term nulliparas with singleton gestations, vertex presentation, and attainment of 10 cm cervical dilation with epidural anesthesia. Exclusion criteria were intrauterine fetal demise, planned cesarean delivery, and major congenital anomalies. An optimal decision tree was used to create a prediction model. A test set was withheld from the data set to perform validation. A risk calculator tool was developed for prediction of spontaneous vaginal birth as well as adverse perinatal outcomes per hour. Adverse maternal outcomes were a composite of postpartum hemorrhage, transfusion, endometritis and third-/fourth-degree laceration. Adverse neonatal outcomes were a composite of neonatal intensive care unit admission, hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy, respiratory distress, seizures, apnea, asphyxia, and shoulder dystocia. RESULTS: The study population included 228,438 deliveries; 26,796 patients met inclusion and exclusion criteria. After removing cases with incomplete data, the study population consisted of 22,299 women, of which 16,593 women had a spontaneous vaginal delivery (74.4%). The number of deliveries at a given hospital per year, fetal position, cervical dilation on admission, chorioamnionitis, augmentation of labor, maternal age, and length of second stage were associated with the odds of spontaneous vaginal delivery. Using the predictors identified, a risk predictor calculator was created, taking into consideration the length of time in the second stage. A receiver-operator characteristic curve was developed to assess the calculator; area under the curve was 0.73. This calculator is available at https://www.pushprescriber.com/. CONCLUSION: Spontaneous vaginal delivery for women with term, cephalic, singleton gestations with epidural anesthesia was associated with several variables. This calculator tool helps facilitate provider decision making and patient counseling about the value of continuing the second stage of labor based on changing rates of success and risks of maternal and neonatal morbidity with time.