2020 American College of Rheumatology Guideline for the Management of Gout

To provide guidance for the management of gout, including indications for and optimal use of urate- lowering therapy (ULT), treatment of gout ares, and lifestyle and other medication recommendation Fifty- seven population, intervention, comparator, and outcomes questions were developed, followed by a systematic literature review, including network meta- analyses with ratings of the available evidence according to the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) methodology, and patient input. A group consensus process was used to compose the nal recommendations and grade their strength as strong or conditional.Results. Forty- two recommendations (including 16 strong recommendations) were generated. Strong recommen-dations included initiation of ULT for all patients with tophaceous gout, radiographic damage due to gout, or frequent gout ares; allopurinol as the preferred rst- line ULT, including for those with moderate- to- severe chronic kidney disease (CKD; stage >3); using a low starting dose of allopurinol (≤100 mg/day, and lower in CKD) or febuxostat (<40 mg/day); and a treat- to- target management strategy with ULT dose titration guided by serial serum urate (SU) measurements, with an SU target of <6 mg/dl. When initiating ULT, concomitant antiinammatory prophylaxis therapy for a duration of at least 3­6 months was strongly recommended. For management of gout ares, colchicine, nonsteroidal antiinammatory drugs, or glucocorticoids (oral, intraarticular, or intramuscular) were strongly recommended.Conclusion. Using GRADE methodology and informed by a consensus process based on evidence from the current literature and patient preferences, this guideline provides direction for clinicians and patients making decisions on the management of gout.

2020 American College of Rheumatology Guideline for the Management of Gout.

OBJECTIVE: To provide guidance for the management of gout, including indications for and optimal use of urate-lowering therapy (ULT), treatment of gout flares, and lifestyle and other medication recommendations. METHODS: Fifty-seven population, intervention, comparator, and outcomes questions were developed, followed by a systematic literature review, including network meta-analyses with ratings of the available evidence according to the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) methodology, and patient input. A group consensus process was used to compose the final recommendations and grade their strength as strong or conditional. RESULTS: Forty-two recommendations (including 16 strong recommendations) were generated. Strong recommendations included initiation of ULT for all patients with tophaceous gout, radiographic damage due to gout, or frequent gout flares; allopurinol as the preferred first-line ULT, including for those with moderate-to-severe chronic kidney disease (CKD; stage >3); using a low starting dose of allopurinol (≤100 mg/day, and lower in CKD) or febuxostat (<40 mg/day); and a treat-to-target management strategy with ULT dose titration guided by serial serum urate (SU) measurements, with an SU target of <6 mg/dl. When initiating ULT, concomitant antiinflammatory prophylaxis therapy for a duration of at least 3-6 months was strongly recommended. For management of gout flares, colchicine, nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drugs, or glucocorticoids (oral, intraarticular, or intramuscular) were strongly recommended. CONCLUSION: Using GRADE methodology and informed by a consensus process based on evidence from the current literature and patient preferences, this guideline provides direction for clinicians and patients making decisions on the management of gout.

2020 American College of Rheumatology Guideline for the Management of Gout.

OBJECTIVE: To provide guidance for the management of gout, including indications for and optimal use of urate-lowering therapy (ULT), treatment of gout flares, and lifestyle and other medication recommendations. METHODS: Fifty-seven population, intervention, comparator, and outcomes questions were developed, followed by a systematic literature review, including network meta-analyses with ratings of the available evidence according to the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) methodology, and patient input. A group consensus process was used to compose the final recommendations and grade their strength as strong or conditional. RESULTS: Forty-two recommendations (including 16 strong recommendations) were generated. Strong recommendations included initiation of ULT for all patients with tophaceous gout, radiographic damage due to gout, or frequent gout flares; allopurinol as the preferred first-line ULT, including for those with moderate-to-severe chronic kidney disease (CKD; stage >3); using a low starting dose of allopurinol (≤100 mg/day, and lower in CKD) or febuxostat (<40 mg/day); and a treat-to-target management strategy with ULT dose titration guided by serial serum urate (SU) measurements, with an SU target of <6 mg/dl. When initiating ULT, concomitant antiinflammatory prophylaxis therapy for a duration of at least 3-6 months was strongly recommended. For management of gout flares, colchicine, nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drugs, or glucocorticoids (oral, intraarticular, or intramuscular) were strongly recommended. CONCLUSION: Using GRADE methodology and informed by a consensus process based on evidence from the current literature and patient preferences, this guideline provides direction for clinicians and patients making decisions on the management of gout.

Adherence and Outcomes with Urate-Lowering Therapy: A Site-Randomized Trial.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to test a pharmacist-led intervention to improve gout treatment adherence and outcomes. METHODS: We conducted a site-randomized trial (n=1463 patients) comparing a 1-year, pharmacist-led intervention to usual care in patients with gout initiating allopurinol. The intervention was delivered primarily through automated telephone technology. Co-primary outcomes were the proportion of patients adherent (proportion of days covered ≥0.8) and achieving a serum urate <6.0 mg/dl at 1 year. Outcomes were reassessed at year 2. RESULTS: Patients who underwent intervention were more likely than patients of usual care to be adherent (50% vs 37%; odds ratio [OR] 1.68; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.30, 2.17) and reach serum urate goal (30% vs 15%; OR 2.37; 95% CI 1.83, 3.05). In the second year (1 year after the intervention ended), differences were attenuated, remaining significant for urate goal but not for adherence. The intervention was associated with a 6%-16% lower gout flare rate during year 2, but the differences did not reach statistical significance. CONCLUSIONS: A pharmacist-led intervention incorporating automated telephone technology improved adherence and serum urate goal in patients with gout initiating allopurinol. Although this light-touch, low-tech intervention was efficacious, additional efforts are needed to enhance patient engagement in gout management and ultimately to improve outcomes.

Urate-Lowering Therapy in Moderate to Severe Chronic Kidney Disease.

CONTEXT: Hyperuricemia is an independent risk factor for progression of kidney disease. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether lowering serum uric acid level (sUA) to below 6 mg/dL (target) improves mild to moderate chronic kidney disease (CKD) and whether CKD stage influences the benefit of lowering sUA to target. DESIGN: Retrospective epidemiologic cohort study conducted over 8 years. Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was required in the 6 months preceding the index date (defined as first occurrence of sUA < 7 mg/dL), and at least 1 sUA and eGFR were required during follow-up. Patients were urate-lowering therapy (ULT) naïve, aged 18 years or older, and had CKD Stages 2 to 4 at baseline. Health Plan enrollment with drug benefit was required. Exclusions included active cancer, dialysis, or other kidney disease. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: A 30% decrease or 30% improvement in eGFR from baseline. RESULTS: A total of 12,751 patients met inclusion criteria; 2690 patients received ULT during follow-up and 10,061 did not. Target sUA was achieved in 1118 patients (42%) receiving ULT. A 30% improvement in eGFR was likelier in patients who achieved the target (odds ratio [OR] = 1.78, p < 0.001). Pairwise comparison of CKD stages showed a 30% improvement in eGFR in CKD Stage 2 (OR = 2.26, p = 0.017) and Stage 3 (OR = 2.23, p < 0.001) but not Stage 4 (OR = 1.50, p = 0.081). CONCLUSION: Patients who achieve an American College of Rheumatology target sUA below 6 mg/dL during ULT have higher rates of eGFR improvement, especially in CKD Stages 2 and 3.

Rationale and design of the randomized evaluation of an Ambulatory Care Pharmacist-Led Intervention to Optimize Urate Lowering Pathways (RAmP-UP) Study.

BACKGROUND: Despite the availability of effective therapies, most gout patients achieve suboptimal treatment outcomes. Current best practices suggest gradual dose-escalation of urate lowering therapy and serial serum urate (sUA) measurement to achieve sUA<6.0mg/dl. However, this strategy is not routinely used. Here we present the study design rationale and development for a pharmacist-led intervention to promote sUA goal attainment. METHODS: To overcome barriers in achieving optimal outcomes, we planned and implemented the Randomized Evaluation of an Ambulatory Care Pharmacist-Led Intervention to Optimize Urate Lowering Pathways (RAmP-UP) study. This is a large pragmatic cluster-randomized trial designed to assess a highly automated, pharmacist-led intervention to optimize allopurinol treatment in gout. Ambulatory clinics (n=101) from a large health system were randomized to deliver either the pharmacist-led intervention or usual care to gout patients over the age of 18years newly initiating allopurinol. All participants received educational materials and could opt-out of the study. For intervention sites, pharmacists conducted outreach primarily via an automated telephone interactive voice recognition system. The outreach, guided by a gout care algorithm developed for this study, systematically promoted adherence assessment, facilitated sUA testing, provided education, and adjusted allopurinol dosing. The primary study outcomes are achievement of sUA<6.0mg/dl and treatment adherence determined after one year. With follow-up ongoing, study results will be reported subsequently. CONCLUSION: Ambulatory care pharmacists and automated calling technology represent potentially important, underutilized resources for improving health outcomes for gout patients.

Patient and clinical characteristics associated with gout flares in an integrated healthcare system.

Gout flares have been challenging to identify in retrospective databases due to gout flares not being well documented by diagnosis codes, making it difficult to conduct accurate database studies. Previous studies have used different algorithms, and in this study, we used a computer-based method to identify gout flares. The objectives of this study were to identify gout flares in gout patients newly initiated on urate-lowering therapy and evaluate factors associated with a patient experiencing gout flares after starting drug treatment. This was a retrospective cohort study identifying gout patients newly initiated on a urate-lowering therapy (ULT) during the study time period of January 1, 2007-December 31, 2010. The index date was the first dispensed ULT prescription during the study time period. Patients had to be ≥18 years of age on index date, have no history of prior ULT prescription during 12 months before index date, and were required to have 12 months of continuous membership with drug benefit during pre-/post-index. Electronic chart notes were reviewed to identify gout flares; these reviews helped create a validated computer-based method to further identify patients with gout flares and were categorized into 0 gout flares, 1-2 gout flares, and ≥3 gout flares during the 12 months post-index period. Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine patient and clinical factors associated with gout flares during the 12-month follow-up period. There were 8905 patients identified as the final cohort and 68 % of these patients had one or more gout flares during the 12-month follow-up: 2797 patients (31 %) had 0 gout flares, 4836 (54 %) had 1-2 gout flares, and 1272 patients (14 %) had ≥3 gout flares. Using a multivariate regression analyses, factors independently associated with 1-2 gout flares and ≥3 gout flares versus no gout flares were similar, however, with slight differences, such as younger patients were more likely to have 1-2 gout flares and patients ≥65 years of age had ≥3 gout flares. Factors such as male gender, not attaining sUA goal, having ≥3 comorbidities, diuretics use, no changes in initial ULT dose, and not adhering to ULT all were associated with gout flares versus no gout flares. Using a new method to identify gout flares, we had the opportunity to compare our findings with the previous studies. Our study findings echo other previous studies where older patients, male, diuretics, having a greater number of comorbidities, and non-adherence are more likely to have more gout flares during the first year of newly initiating ULT. There is an unmet need for patients with gout to be educated and managed more closely, especially during the first year.

Effect of urate-lowering therapies on renal disease progression in patients with hyperuricemia.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association between hyperuricemia and renal disease progression in a real-world, large observational database study. METHODS: We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study identifying 111,992 patients with hyperuricemia (> 7 mg/dl) from a large medical group. The final cohort were ≥ 18 years old, urate-lowering therapy (ULT)-naïve, and had the following laboratory results available: at least 1 glomerular filtration rate (GFR) level before the index date and at least 1 serum uric acid (sUA) level and GFR in the followup 36-month period. The cohort was categorized into 3 groups: never treated (NoTx), ULT time receiving therapy of < 80% (< 80%), and ULT time receiving therapy of ≥ 80% (≥ 80%). Outcomes were defined as a ≥ 30% reduction in GFR from baseline, dialysis, or GFR of ≤ 15 ml/min. A subanalysis of patients with sUA < 6 mg/dl at study conclusion was performed. Cox proportional hazards regression model determined factors associated with renal function decline. RESULTS: A total of 16,186 patients met inclusion criteria. There were 11,192 NoTx patients, 3902 with < 80% time receiving ULT, and 1092 with ≥ 80% time receiving ULT. Factors associated with renal disease progression were age, sex, hypertension, diabetes, congestive heart failure, hospitalizations, rheumatoid arthritis, and higher sUA at baseline. Time receiving therapy was not associated with renal outcomes. Patients who achieved sUA < 6 mg/dl had a 37% reduction in outcome events (p < 0.0001; HR 0.63, 95% CI: 0.5-0.78). CONCLUSION: Hyperuricemia is an independent risk factor for renal function decline. Patients treated with ULT who achieved sUA < 6 mg/dl on ULT showed a 37% reduction in outcome events.

Using natural language processing and machine learning to identify gout flares from electronic clinical notes.

OBJECTIVE: Gout flares are not well documented by diagnosis codes, making it difficult to conduct accurate database studies. We implemented a computer-based method to automatically identify gout flares using natural language processing (NLP) and machine learning (ML) from electronic clinical notes. METHODS: Of 16,519 patients, 1,264 and 1,192 clinical notes from 2 separate sets of 100 patients were selected as the training and evaluation data sets, respectively, which were reviewed by rheumatologists. We created separate NLP searches to capture different aspects of gout flares. For each note, the NLP search outputs became the ML system inputs, which provided the final classification decisions. The note-level classifications were grouped into patient-level gout flares. Our NLP+ML results were validated using a gold standard data set and compared with the claims-based method used by prior literatures. RESULTS: For 16,519 patients with a diagnosis of gout and a prescription for a urate-lowering therapy, we identified 18,869 clinical notes as gout flare positive (sensitivity 82.1%, specificity 91.5%): 1,402 patients with ≥3 flares (sensitivity 93.5%, specificity 84.6%), 5,954 with 1 or 2 flares, and 9,163 with no flare (sensitivity 98.5%, specificity 96.4%). Our method identified more flare cases (18,869 versus 7,861) and patients with ≥3 flares (1,402 versus 516) when compared to the claims-based method. CONCLUSION: We developed a computer-based method (NLP and ML) to identify gout flares from the clinical notes. Our method was validated as an accurate tool for identifying gout flares with higher sensitivity and specificity compared to previous studies.

Direct medical expenditure associated with rheumatoid arthritis in a nationally representative sample from the medical expenditure panel survey.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the incremental direct medical expenditure associated with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in the US population from a payer's perspective. METHODS: A probability-weighted sample of adult respondents from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (2008) was used to identify a cohort of patients with RA and compared to a control cohort without RA. Annual expenditure outcomes, including total expenditure and subgroups related to pharmacy, office-based visits, emergency department visits, hospital inpatient stays, and residual expenditures were estimated. Differences between the RA and control cohort were adjusted for sociodemographic factors, employment status, insurance coverage, health behavior, and health status using a generalized linear model with log link and gamma distribution. Statistical inferences on difference in expenditures between RA and non-RA controls were based on nonparametric cluster bootstrapping using percentiles. RESULTS: The adjusted average annual total expenditure of the RA cohort in 2008 US dollars (USD) was $13,012 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] $1,737-$47,081), while that of the control cohort was $4,950 (95% CI $567-$17,425). The incremental total expenditure of the RA patients as compared to non-RA controls was $2,085 (95% CI $250-$7,822). RA patients also had a significantly higher pharmacy expenditure of $5,825 (95% CI $446-$30,998) that was on average $1,380 (95% CI $94-$7,492) higher as compared to the controls. The summated total incremental expenditure of all RA patients in the US was $22.3 billion (2008 USD). CONCLUSION: RA exerts considerable incremental economic burden on US health care, which is primarily driven by the incremental pharmacy expenditure.

Gastrointestinal safety of nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drugs and selective cyclooxygenase-2 inhibitors in patients on warfarin.

BACKGROUND: The interaction between warfarin and nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) is well known. However, warfarin and NSAIDs are still commonly prescribed together. Selective cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) inhibitors, a newer class of NSAID, offer potential advantages over the nonselective NSAIDs in patients treated with warfarin. OBJECTIVE: To study the rates of hospitalization for gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding events in 3 groups of patients: those taking warfarin only, those taking warfarin plus a nonselective NSAID, and those taking warfarin plus a selective COX-2 inhibitor. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort analysis in a large nonprofit health maintenance organization. All warfarin users from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2005, were eligible for inclusion in the study. Eligible patients were grouped by their exposure time to warfarin only, warfarin plus nonselective NSAIDs, or warfarin plus selective COX-2 inhibitor. The study endpoint was hospitalization for a GI bleed. Patients were matched using a propensity scoring methodology. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate the hazard ratio for GI bleeding between patient cohorts, controlling for age, sex, baseline medical conditions, prior history of GI bleeding, and prescription drug use. RESULTS: The eligible population consisted of 35,548 patients undergoing 46,214 courses of warfarin therapy. The adjusted hazard ratio for hospital-associated GI bleeding in the warfarin plus nonselective NSAID group versus warfarin alone was 3.58 (95% CI 2.31 to 5.55; p < 0.01) and for warfarin plus selective COX-2 inhibitor versus warfarin alone was 1.71 (95% CI 0.60 to 4.84; p = 0.31). For nonselective NSAIDs plus warfarin versus selective COX-2 inhibitor plus warfarin, the adjusted hazard ratio was 3.69 (95% CI 1.42 to 9.60; p = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: In general, nonselective NSAIDs and selective COX-2 inhibitors should be avoided in patients taking warfarin. In situations where patients require NSAIDs and cannot be managed using other therapies, our results suggest that selective COX-2 inhibitors are associated with fewer hospitalizations for GI bleeding.

Myocardial Infarction and Its Association with the Use of Nonselective NSAIDs: A Nested Case-Control and Time-to-Event Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: In April 2005, the US Food and Drug Administration issued a public health advisory warning to health care clinicians about the cardiovascular (CV) safety of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs). Although the warning about cyclooxygenase-2 selective NSAIDs was anticipated, little data exists about the CV safety of nonselective NSAIDs. We analyzed data from a group of NSAID users to determine if specific nonselective agents were associated with an increased risk of myocardial infarctions (MIs) and sudden cardiac death (SCD). DESIGN: A nested case-control design was used to study NSAID users ages 18 to 84 years. Cases were defined by a hospital admission for MI or an out-of-hospital SCD. Study control subjects were matched for age, sex, current Kaiser Permanente membership, and geographic location (Northern or Southern California). Odds ratios (OR) were estimated using conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: Our base population included 1,394,764 NSAID users. From this population we identified 8143 cases and 31,496 matched study control subjects. The median time to event was <100 days for all NSAIDs. Two nonselective NSAIDs were associated with increased odds of adverse CV outcomes: indomethacin (OR, 1.27; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.56) and naproxen (OR, 1.14; 95% confidence interval, 1.00-1.30). CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that some nonselective NSAIDs are associated with an increased risk of MI and SCD. We found the increased risk to be small compared with the risk associated with rofecoxib. Cardiovascular events occurred early in therapy. Caution is warranted with some nonselective NSAIDs, especially those for which other studies have found evidence of risk.

Validation of patient-reported joint counts in rheumatoid arthritis and the role of training.

OBJECTIVE: To demonstrate the effectiveness of simple training on improving the ability of patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) to assess joint swelling, and to validate the use of a computerized questionnaire, the Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ-ulous), to collect patient-reported tender and swollen joint counts. METHODS: Sixty patients completed the HAQ-ulous, reporting pain and swelling of the 28 joints included in the Disease Activity Score-28. A rheumatologist blinded to the patients' responses assessed each joint for the presence of tenderness and swelling. At followup visits, 30 patients received training in distinguishing a swollen joint from a chronically enlarged joint, completed the HAQ-ulous again, and were reassessed by the physician. RESULTS: At the initial visit, a strong correlation was shown between patient- and clinician-reported tender joints [Pearson correlation coefficient (r(p)) = 0.79; p < 0.0001]. Correlation between patient- and clinician-reported swollen joints was less robust (r(p) = 0.41; p = 0.001). Following training at the second visit, agreement between patients and the clinician improved for both tender joints (r(p) = 0.94; p < 0.0001) and swollen joints (r(p) = 0.93; p < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: With simple training in distinguishing swollen joints from chronically enlarged joints, the majority of patients are able to accurately assess joint swelling. Objective tools, such as the HAQ-ulous, that incorporate patient-reported outcomes are a valuable and reliable addition to standard clinical practice for monitoring patients with RA.

Risk of acute myocardial infarction and sudden cardiac death in patients treated with cyclo-oxygenase 2 selective and non-selective non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs: nested case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Controversy has surrounded the question about whether high-dose rofecoxib increases or naproxen decreases the risk of serious coronary heart disease. We sought to establish if risk was enhanced with rofecoxib at either high or standard doses compared with remote non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) use or celecoxib use, because celecoxib was the most common alternative to rofecoxib. METHODS: We used data from Kaiser Permanente in California to assemble a cohort of all patients age 18-84 years treated with a NSAID between Jan 1, 1999, and Dec 31, 2001, within which we did a nested case-control study. Cases of serious coronary heart disease (acute myocardial infarction and sudden cardiac death) were risk-set matched with four controls for age, sex, and health plan region. Current exposure to cyclo-oxygenase 2 selective and non-selective NSAIDs was compared with remote exposure to any NSAID, and rofecoxib was compared with celecoxib. FINDINGS: During 2302029 person-years of follow-up, 8143 cases of serious coronary heart disease occurred, of which 2210 (27.1%) were fatal. Multivariate adjusted odds ratios versus celecoxib were: for rofecoxib (all doses), 1.59 (95% CI 1.10-2.32, p=0.015); for rofecoxib 25 mg/day or less, 1.47 (0.99-2.17, p=0.054); and for rofecoxib greater than 25 mg/day, 3.58 (1.27-10.11, p=0.016). For naproxen versus remote NSAID use the adjusted odds ratio was 1.14 (1.00-1.30, p=0.05). INTERPRETATION: Rofecoxib use increases the risk of serious coronary heart disease compared with celecoxib use. Naproxen use does not protect against serious coronary heart disease.

Development and evaluation of a patient self-report case-finding method for rheumatoid arthritis.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the development and evaluation of a patient self-report case-finding method for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) not dependent on direct contact with the treating physicians. METHODS: The American College of Rheumatology criteria for RA diagnosis were adapted for patient self-report using a questionnaire, and alternative scoring algorithms were evaluated to balance case-finding sensitivity and specificity. Positive rheumatoid factor tests were used to identify 1053 individuals in 2 large healthcare organizations; 440 agreed to receive study materials. Case-finding results were validated by medical record review (MRR) for a random sample of 90 patients. Three scoring algorithms were compared with MRR for likelihood of RA diagnosis. Cases not classifiable by algorithm were flagged and reviewed by 2 expert physicians for likelihood of RA diagnosis. RESULTS: Pilot testing demonstrated that patients comprehended the questionnaire and were willing to answer the questions. Completed questionnaires were returned by 265 (60%) of the 440 patients contacted. Following expert physician review of 16 flagged cases in the 90-patient MRR subsample, the most accurate scoring algorithm demonstrated 80% sensitivity, 67% specificity, 74% accuracy, and 77% positive predictive value for detecting early RA. CONCLUSION: The case-finding method represents a promising tool for identifying RA patients, with potential application in research and quality-assurance activities. RELEVANCE: This case-finding method should be useful in research and quality-assurance efforts requiring identification of RA patients treated by all types of providers in healthcare organizations in which centralized laboratory data are available.

Predicting the risk of gastrointestinal bleeding due to nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drugs: NSAID electronic assessment of risk.

OBJECTIVE: To validate that, using patient demographics and other risk factors readily obtained from computerized databases, one can predict a priori the risk for developing a nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drug (NSAID) associated gastrointestinal (GI) bleed prior to exposing patients to therapy. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort analysis using computer-stored information from a large group-model health maintenance organization. All patients who received one or more prescriptions for a single NSAID over a 9 month period were eligible. Historical and risk factor data was obtained for age, sex, prior GI bleeds, use of GI medications, prednisone use, and use of disease modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARD). We tested a model (eSCORE) that is based on a previous risk stratification method. The primary outcome was a hospital admission for a GI bleed (GI event). RESULTS: A total of 303,211 NSAID patient-users met eligibility requirements. Serious GI events occurred in 302 patients, for a rate of 0.68% (0.68 events per 100 patient-years' exposure). All the risk factors except DMARD use were associated with a significant increase in the GI event rate. Higher eSCORE points were associated with increased GI event rates. CONCLUSION: The study supports the concept that the rate of GI events can be predicted by a defined set of easily assessed patient criteria using the eSCORE. Stratification of patients by risk score can guide the physician to appropriate therapeutic options, with the potential of protecting patients at greatest risk for a GI event.