Age-specific incidence trends of 32 cancers in China, 1983 to 2032: Evidence from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents.

The long-term incidence trends of 32 cancers in China remained unclear. Cancer statistics for young population were often presented in aggregate, masking important heterogeneity. We aimed to assess the incidence trends of 32 cancers in China from 1983 to 2032, stratified by sex and age groups. Data on cancer incidence from 1983 to 2017 were extracted from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Volumes VI-XII. The age-period-cohort model was utilized to assess age and birth cohort effects on the temporal trends of 32 cancers in China, while the Bayesian age-period-cohort model was utilized to project future trends from 2018 to 2032. An increase in cohort effects is observed in some cancers such as thyroid and kidney cancers. Eight of the 12 obesity-related cancers may rise in the 0-14 age group, and nine in the 15-39 age group from 2013 to 2032. Liver and stomach cancers show an increasing trend among the younger population, contrasting with the observed declining trend in the middle-aged population. There has been a significant rise in the proportions of cervical cancer among females aged 40-64 (4.3%-19.1%), and prostate cancer among males aged 65+ (1.1%-11.8%) from 1983 to 2032. Cancer spectrum in China is shifting toward that in developed countries. Incidence rates of most cancers across different age groups may increase in recent cohorts. It is essential to insist effective preventive interventions, and promote healthier lifestyles, such as reducing obesity, especially among younger population.

A Multicenter Randomized Controlled Study of Contrast-enhanced US versus US-guided Biopsy of Focal Liver Lesions.

Background Retrospective or single-center prospective studies with relatively small samples have shown that contrast-enhanced US (CEUS) can improve the diagnostic accuracy of percutaneous biopsy, but larger prospective studies are lacking. Purpose To assess the diagnostic performance of CEUS-guided biopsy (CEUS-GB) of focal liver lesions (FLLs) compared with US-guided biopsy (US-GB) in a prospective multicenter study. Materials and Methods In this randomized controlled study conducted in nine hospitals in China between March 2016 and August 2019, adult participants with FLLs detected with US, CT, or MRI and planned for percutaneous biopsy were randomly assigned to undergo either US-GB or CEUS-GB. Lesions diagnosed as malignant at histopathologic analysis were considered true-positive findings. Benign or indeterminate lesions required further confirmation with either repeat biopsy or clinical follow-up at 6 months or later. The primary endpoint was the diagnostic accuracy rate, and comparison between groups was made using the χ2 test. Results In this study, 2056 participants (1297 men, 759 women; mean age, 58 years ± 11 [SD]) were analyzed: 1030 underwent biopsy with US guidance and 1026 underwent biopsy with CEUS guidance. The overall diagnostic accuracy rate of CEUS-GB was 96% (983 of 1026) versus 93% (953 of 1030) for US-GB (P = .002), CEUS-GB enabled correct identification in 96% of participants (983 of 1026) compared with 92% (953 of 1030) with US-GB (P = .002). The negative predictive value (NPV) for both biopsy methods was moderate but significantly higher for CEUS-GB than for US-GB (74% vs 57%, P = .001). The difference was remarkable for lesions smaller than 2.0 cm, with CEUS-GB showing higher diagnostic accuracy (96% vs 88%, P = .004) and sensitivity (95% vs 87%, P = .007) than US-GB. Among lesions smaller than 2.0 cm, the accuracy of CEUS-GB and US-GB for detection of hepatocellular carcinoma was 93% and 80%, respectively (P = .008), while it was comparable for liver metastases (98% vs 95%, P = .63). Conclusion Contrast-enhanced US-guided biopsy of focal liver lesions is an effective and safe procedure with a higher diagnostic accuracy than US-guided biopsy, especially for lesions smaller than 2.0 cm and for hepatocellular carcinoma diagnosis. Clinical trial registration no. NCT02413437 © RSNA, 2022 Online supplemental material is available for this article.

Gender disparities in incidence and projections of lung cancer in China and the United States from 1978 to 2032: an age-period-cohort analysis.

PURPOSE: Lung cancer incidences tend to be higher among males than females in both China and the United States, yet secular incidence patterns are different due to distinct population and environmental exposures. We examined long-term and future trends of lung cancer incidence, as well as the associations of age, period, and cohort effects with gender disparities. METHODS: Using data from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents from 1978 to 2012, we calculated age-standardized, age-specific incidence, and male-to-female incidence rate ratios (IRR), and conducted an age-period-cohort analysis. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) of the trends was obtained by Joinpoint Regression. Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis was also conducted to project incidences to 2032. RESULTS: In China, age-standardized incidence revealed a decreasing trend among males, but showed increasing trends among the younger age groups (30-54 years) in females. Age-standardized incidence rates of males decreased but remained stable among females from 1972 to 2012 in the United States. Male-to-female incidence rate ratios narrowed in both countries and reversed among younger birth cohorts in the United States. Gender disparities are expected to continue to diminish in both countries, and incidence among females appears to exceed that of males in the United States by around 2023-2027. CONCLUSION: Gender disparities in lung cancer incidence persist and will continue into the future in both countries, but our findings suggested that smoking may play different roles in gender disparities in lung cancer incidence between the two countries. Further population-based epidemiological studies among females in China are imperative.

Impact of human papillomavirus vaccine on cervical cancer epidemic: Evidence from the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results program.

Introduction: Since 2006, the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine has been recommended for females aged 9-26 years in the United States. Aiming to evaluate the early effect of the HPV vaccine on cervical cancer, this study assessed the incidence of cervical cancer by age and histology before and after the introduction of HPV vaccination. Methods: Data on cervical cancer incidence from 1975-2019 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program. Joinpoint regression was used to determine temporal trends over time. Future cervical cancer incidence (2015-2039) was projected using Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis. Age-period-cohort (APC) models were created to evaluate age, period, and cohort effects. Results: For overall cervical cancer and cervical squamous cell carcinoma (SCC), incidence rate showed decreasing trends (-0.7%, and -1.0% annually, respectively), whereas cervical adenocarcinoma (AC) incidence continuously increased (2.6% annually). The incidence trends for AC were stable in the 20-24 and 25-29-year age groups, whereas there was an increasing trend in older age groups. Similarly, the projected trend for AC in females aged 20-30 years exhibited a decline, whereas an increase was predicted in the 31-40-year age group, especially in the 35-44 year age group. The birth cohort and period effects in SCC and AC were extracted from APC models. Discussion: During the period of 1975-2019, the incidence of cervical AC remained almost unchanged in the age groups receiving HPV vaccines while increased in the age groups not receiving HPV vaccines. The birth cohort effects of SCC and AC of the cervix provided evidence supporting the effectiveness of the HPV vaccine in preventing cervical cancer.

Changing incidence and projections of thyroid cancer in mainland China, 1983-2032: evidence from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents.

PURPOSE: An increasing incidence of thyroid cancer has been seen in China during the past several decades. The aim of this study was to analyze potential age, period, and cohort effects on the incidence of thyroid cancer in mainland China and to predict new cases up to 2032. METHODS: We calculated age-adjusted and age-specific incidence rates of thyroid cancer, conducted an age-period-cohort analysis of 35,037 thyroid cancer incidence cases reported to Cancer Incidence in Five Continents from 1983 to 2012 in mainland China, and predicted incidence up to 2032 using the Bayesian age-period-cohort method. RESULTS: The age-adjusted overall incidence rate of thyroid cancer increased from 1.93/100,000 in 1983-1987 to 12.18/100,000 in 2008-2012 among females and from 0.77/100,000 in 1983-1987 to 3.89/100,000 in 2008-2012 among males, with a female-to-male ratio of approximately 3.0 during the three decades. Strong birth cohort and period effects on the incidence of thyroid cancer were observed for both sexes, and such an increasing trend is predicted to continue for at least the next 20 years. More than 3.7 million new cases are projected in the 2028-2032 period. CONCLUSION: The increasing trend of thyroid cancer in mainland China will cause a great burden in the future. In addition to the potential impact of improvement in medical diagnostics, potential exposure to risk factors have played a role in the observed rising trend. Further population-based epidemiologic studies are required to identify risk factors to aid in thyroid cancer prevention and control.

[Single trial classification of motor imagery electroencephalogram based on Fisher criterion].

In order to realize brain-computer interface (BCI), optimal features of single trail motor imagery electroencephalogram (EEG) were extracted and classified. Mu rhythm of EEG was obtained by preprocessing, and the features were optimized by spatial filtering, which are estimated from a set of data by method of common spatial pattern. Classification decision can be made by Fisher criterion, and classification performance can be evaluated by cross validation and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Optimal feature dimension determination projected by spatial filter was discussed deeply in cross-validation way. The experimental results show that the high discriminate accuracy can be guaranteed, meanwhile the program running speed is improved. Motor imagery intention classification based on optimized EEG feature provides difference of states and simplifies the recognition processing, which offers a new method for the research of intention recognition.