Dynamic predictive accuracy of electrocardiographic biomarkers of sudden cardiac death within a survival framework: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study.

BACKGROUND: The risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD) is known to be dynamic. However, the accuracy of a dynamic SCD prediction is unknown. We aimed to measure the dynamic predictive accuracy of ECG biomarkers of SCD and competing non-sudden cardiac death (non-SCD). METHODS: Atherosclerosis Risk In Community study participants with analyzable ECGs in sinus rhythm were included (n = 15,716; 55% female, 73% white, age 54.2 ± 5.8 y). ECGs of 5 follow-up visits were analyzed. Global electrical heterogeneity and traditional ECG metrics (heart rate, QRS, QTc) were measured. Adjudicated SCD was the primary outcome; non-SCD was the competing outcome. Time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC(t) AUC) analysis was performed to assess the prediction accuracy of a continuous biomarker in a period of 3,6,9 months, and 1,2,3,5,10, and 15 years using a survival analysis framework. Reclassification improvement as compared to clinical risk factors (age, sex, race, diabetes, hypertension, coronary heart disease, stroke) was measured. RESULTS: Over a median 24.4 y follow-up, there were 577 SCDs (incidence 1.76 (95%CI 1.63-1.91)/1000 person-years), and 829 non-SCDs [2.55 (95%CI 2.37-2.71)]. No ECG biomarkers predicted SCD within 3 months after ECG recording. Within 6 months, spatial ventricular gradient (SVG) elevation predicted SCD (AUC 0.706; 95%CI 0.526-0.886), but not a non-SCD (AUC 0.527; 95%CI 0.303-0.75). SVG elevation more accurately predicted SCD if the ECG was recorded 6 months before SCD (AUC 0.706; 95%CI 0.526-0.886) than 2 years before SCD (AUC 0.608; 95%CI 0.515-0.701). Within the first 3 months after ECG recording, only SVG azimuth improved reclassification of the risk beyond clinical risk factors: 18% of SCD events were reclassified from low or intermediate risk to a high-risk category. QRS-T angle was the strongest long-term predictor of SCD (AUC 0.710; 95%CI 0.668-0.753 for ECG recorded within 10 years before SCD). CONCLUSION: Short-term and long-term predictive accuracy of ECG biomarkers of SCD differed, reflecting differences in transient vs. persistent SCD substrates. The dynamic predictive accuracy of ECG biomarkers should be considered for competing SCD risk scores. The distinction between markers predicting short-term and long-term events may represent the difference between markers heralding SCD (triggers or transient substrates) versus markers identifying persistent substrate.

Importance of the heart vector origin point definition for an ECG analysis: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study.

AIM: Our goal was to investigate the effect of a global XYZ median beat construction and the heart vector origin point definition on predictive accuracy of ECG biomarkers of sudden cardiac death (SCD). METHODS: Atherosclerosis Risk In Community study participants with analyzable digital ECGs were included (n = 15,768; 55% female, 73% white, mean age 54.2 ±â€¯5.8 y). We developed an algorithm to automatically detect the heart vector origin point on a median beat. Three different approaches to construct a global XYZ beat and two methods to locate origin point were compared. Global electrical heterogeneity was measured by sum absolute QRST integral (SAI QRST), spatial QRS-T angle, and spatial ventricular gradient (SVG) magnitude, azimuth, and elevation. Adjudicated SCD served as the primary outcome. RESULTS: There was high intra-observer (kappa 0.972) and inter-observer (kappa 0.984) agreement in a heart vector origin definition between an automated algorithm and a human. QRS was wider in a median beat that was constructed using R-peak alignment than in time-coherent beat (88.1 ±â€¯16.7 vs. 83.7 ±â€¯15.9 ms; P < 0.0001), and on a median beat constructed using QRS-onset as a zeroed baseline, vs. isoelectric origin point (86.7 ±â€¯15.9 vs. 83.7 ±â€¯15.9 ms; P < 0.0001). ROC AUC was significantly larger for QRS, QT, peak QRS-T angle, SVG elevation, and SAI QRST if measured on a time-coherent median beat, and for SAI QRST and SVG magnitude if measured on a median beat using isoelectric origin point. CONCLUSION: Time-coherent global XYZ median beat with physiologically meaningful definition of the heart vector's origin point improved predictive accuracy of SCD biomarkers.

Vectorcardiogram in athletes: The Sun Valley Ski Study.

BACKGROUND: Global electrical heterogeneity (GEH) is associated with sudden cardiac death (SCD) in adults of 45 years and above. However, GEH has not been previously measured in young athletes. The goal of this study was to establish a reference for vectorcardiograpic (VCG) metrics in male and female athletes. METHODS: Skiers (n = 140; mean age 19.2 ± 3.5 years; 66% male, 94% white; 53% professional athletes) were enrolled in a prospective cohort. Resting 12-lead ECGs were interpreted per the International ECG criteria. Associations of age, sex, and athletic performance with GEH were studied. RESULTS: In age and training level-adjusted analyses, male sex was associated with a larger T vector [T peak magnitude +186 (95% CI 106-266) µV] and a wider spatial QRS-T angle [+28.2 (17.3-39.2)°] as compared to women. Spatial QRS-T angle in the ECG left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) voltage group (n = 21; 15%) and normal ECG group did not differ (67.7 ± 25.0 vs. 66.8 ± 28.2; p = 0.914), suggesting that ECG LVH voltage in athletes reflects physiological remodeling. In contrast, skiers with right ventricular hypertrophy (RVH) voltage (n = 26, 18.6%) had wider QRS-T angle (92.7 ± 29.6 vs. 66.8 ± 28.2°; p = 0.001), larger SAI QRST (194.9 ± 30.2 vs. 157.8 ± 42.6 mV × ms; p < 0.0001), but similar peak SVG vector magnitude (1976 ± 548 vs. 1939 ± 395 µV; p = 0.775) as compared to the normal ECG group. Better athletic performance was associated with the narrower QRS-T angle. Each 10% worsening in an athlete's Federation Internationale de' Ski downhill ranking percentile was associated with an increase in spatial QRS-T angle by 2.1 (95% CI 0.3-3.9) degrees (p = 0.013). CONCLUSION: Vectorcardiograpic adds nuances to ECG phenomena in athletes.