Trend analysis and age-period-cohort effects on morbidity and mortality of liver cancer from 2010 to 2020 in Guangzhou, China.

Introduction: Liver cancer is one of the most common malignant gastrointestinal tumors worldwide. This study intends to provide insight into the epidemiological characteristics and development trends of liver cancer incidence and mortality from 2010 to 2020 in Guangzhou, China. Methods: Data were collected from the Cancer Registry and Reporting Office of Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Cross-sectional study, Joinpoint regression (JPR) model, and Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model were conducted to analyze the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) trend of liver cancer among the entire study period. Results: The age-standardized incidence and mortality of liver cancer in Guangzhou showed an overall decreasing trend. The disparity in risk of morbidity and mortality between the two sexes for liver cancer is increasing. The cohort effect was the most significant among those born in 1965~1969, and the risk of liver cancer incidence and mortality in the total population increased and then decreased with the birth cohort. Compared with the birth cohort born in 1950~1954 (the reference cohort), the risk of liver cancer incidence and mortality in the males born in 1995~1999 decreased by 32% and 41%, respectively, while the risk in the females decreased by 31% and 32%, respectively. Conclusions: The early detection, prevention, clinical diagnosis, and treatment of liver cancer in Guangzhou have made remarkable achievements in recent years. However, the risk of liver cancer in the elderly and the middle-aged males is still at a high level. Therefore, the publicity of knowledge related to the prevention and treatment of liver cancer among the relevant population groups should be actively carried out to enhance the rate of early diagnosis and treatment of liver cancer and to advocate a healthier lifestyle.

Potential Role of MAP3K14 in Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Study Based on Comprehensive Bioinformatical Analysis and Validation.

According to reports, MAP3K14 is considered an oncogene and is aberrantly expressed in various types of tumor cells. Its abnormal expression is closely associated with the occurrence and progression of various cancers. MAP3K14 also plays a significant role in the development of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH)-related hepatocellular carcinoma and its connection to tumor stem cells. The prognostic value of MAP3K14 in HCC, as well as its potential functions and roles, requires further elucidation. We evaluated the potential role of MAP3K14 in HCC based on data mining from a range of public databases. The bioinformatics analysis of TCGA, GEO, TIMER, cBioportal, Kaplan-Meier plotter, MethSurv, ENCORI and CellMiner databases was carried out. The expression of MAP3K14 protein in HCC was detected by immunohistochemical method. The mRNA and protein expression levels of MAP3K14 in tumor tissues were higher than those in normal tissues (p < 0.05). The expression of MAP3K14 was correlated with Pathologic T stage (p=0.026), Pathologic stage (p=0.032), Tumor status (p=0.024) and AFP (p=0.002). HCC patients with high expression of MAP3K14 had poor overall survival (OS), progression free survival (PFS) and recurrence free survival (RFS). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that the Pathologic stage (p < 0.001) and MAP3K14 expression levels (p < 0.05) is an independent prognostic factor affecting the survival of patients with liver cancer. GO/KEGG analysis suggested that key biological processes (PI3K-Akt signaling pathway) may be the mechanism promoting HCC development. In addition, MAP3K14 was significantly correlated with the infiltrating levels of B cells, CD8+ T cells, CD4+ T cells, macrophages, neutrophils, and dendritic cells (p < 0.05). MAP3K14 is up-regulated in HCC and is closely related to the prognosis of HCC patients. MAP3K14 may serve as a potential biomarker for poor prognosis of HCC.

Association between ambient temperature and mammalian-related injuries in Guangzhou, China, 2014-2019.

BACKGROUND: Meteorological factors are associated with various health outcomes. However, it remains uncertain whether ambient temperature affects animal aggressive behaviors and causes mammalian-related injuries (MRI) in humans. The study aimed to examine the effect of daily mean temperature on MRI in Guangzhou, China. METHODS: Individual cases of MRI were obtained from Guangzhou Injury Surveillance System during 2014-2019. A combination of a distributed lag nonlinear model and conditional quasi-Poisson regression, implemented within a time-stratified case-crossover design, was employed to evaluate the association between temperature and MRI. Subgroup analyses were conducted by sex, age group, education level, and types of mammals. RESULT: This study included 24,206 MRI cases among which 89.7 % were caused by cats or dogs. We observed a nonlinear relationship between daily mean temperature and MRI. The impact of high temperatures was most pronounced on the current day and remained statistically significant on the next day. Compared with the reference temperature with a minimum risk of injuries (9.3 °C, approximately 2nd percentile of temperature), 75th percentile of temperature (27.4 °C) exerted the greatest relative risk (RR) of injuries (RR = 1.45, 95 % CI: 1.25-1.68) over lag 0-1 days. In subgroup analyses, the effects of high temperatures among males and females were similar. Individuals aged 15-34 years and 35-59 years were more susceptible to MRI at high temperatures compared to other age groups. The risk of injuries caused by cats or dogs consistently increased with high temperatures. We did not find significant impacts of low temperatures. CONCLUSION: Short-term heat exposure plays an important role in the occurrence of MRI. The findings highlight the importance of enhancing public awareness regarding the high temperature-associated hazards posed by mammals. There is a need for enhanced regulations and measures on the management for cats and dogs to mitigate the harm caused in hot seasons.

Exploring temporal trends and influencing factors for thyroid cancer in Guangzhou, China: 2004-2018.

PURPOSE: Describe and analyze the trends of thyroid cancer incidence and mortality in Guangzhou, explore the potential influencing factors, and provide evidence for the government to formulate prevention and treatment measures. METHODS: Incident and death cases of thyroid cancer were retrieved from the Guangzhou cancer registry. The joinpoint regression models were used to estimate the incidence and mortality trends. Age-period-cohort models were used to estimate the age, period, and cohort effects on the time trends. Grey correlation analysis was performed to explore possible connections between thyroid cancer and social factors. RESULTS: A total of 15,955 new cases of thyroid cancer were registered in Guangzhou during 2004-2018, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of thyroid cancer increased from 4.29/105 in 2004 to 22.36/105 in 2018, with the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of 13.40%. The overall increase can be attributed to the increase in the incidence of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC), which was dominated by tumors <2 cm. The ASIR was higher in women (16.12/105) compared to men (5.46/105), and young and middle-aged individuals had higher incidence rates than older people. The number of thyroid cancer deaths registered between 2010 and 2018 was 356, and the age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) were stable (approximately 0.42/105). Men's ASMR (0.34/105) and women's (0.49/105) were similar, and those 60 and older had greater mortality. The period and cohort relative risks showed an overall increasing trend. Furthermore, there was a strong positive correlation between the ASIRs and social determinants. CONCLUSIONS: During the study period, the incidence rate of thyroid cancer among young and middle-aged people in Guangzhou showed a rapidly increasing trend, and the mortality was relatively stable. In the future, more effective preventive measures should be taken for this age group to reduce the burden of disease and avoid overdiagnosis.

Prevalence of falls, injury from falls and associations with chronic diseases among community-dwelling older adults in Guangzhou, China: a cross-sectional study.

Introduction: As a developing country with the largest older adult population in the world, strengthening the research on falls among the older adults is undoubtedly an urgent item in China. This study aimed to explore the prevalence and risk factors associated with falls and injury from falls among community-dwelling older adults in Guangzhou, China, particularly focusing on their associations with chronic diseases. Methods: A total of 1,629 participants aged 65 years and above were selected from 11 counties in Guangzhou by the multi-stage stratified random sampling method in 2021. Socio-demographic characteristics, health and lifestyle factors, the status of falls, and injury from falls were measured by structured questionnaires through face-to-face interviews. Chi-square tests and logistic regression analysis were used to identify factors associated with falls and injury from falls. Chord diagrams were used to explore their associations with chronic diseases. Results: A total of 251 participants (15.41%, 95% CI: 13.98%-17.25%) reported falls, and 162 participants (9.46%, 95% CI:7.72%-11.55%) indicated an injury from falls. Logistic regression analysis showed the results as follows: female patients (adjusted OR = 1.721, 95% CI: 1.681-1.761) aged ≥80 years (1.910, 1.847-1.975), unemployed (1.226, 1.171-1.284), uninsured (1.555, 1.448-1.671), average monthly household income of 2,001-4,000 CNY (1.878, 1.827-1.930), number of services provided by the community health center ≥13 times per year (1.428, 1.383-1.475), illness within 2 weeks (1.633, 1.595-1.672), high-intensity physical activity (2.254, 2.191-2.32), sedentary (1.094, 1.070-1.117), and number of chronic disease illnesses ≥3 (1.930, 1.870-1.993). Meanwhile, those risk factors were also associated with injury from falls. The older adults with medium-intensity physical activity were at lower risk (0.721, 0.705-0.737) of falls and higher risk (1.086, 1.057-1.117) of being injured from falls. Chord diagrams showed the correlations between chronic diseases and falls and injury from falls among community-dwelling older adults in Guangzhou, China. Conclusion: The high prevalence of falls is found among community-dwelling older adults in Guangzhou, China, which is related to multiple factors such as demographic variables, lifestyle, and health status, especially for chronic diseases. Therefore, targeted interventions should be developed and implemented urgently.

Lifestyle, clinical and histological indices-based prediction models for survival in cancer patients: a city-wide prospective cohort study in China.

PURPOSE: We developed a nomogram to predict 3-year, 5-year and 7-year cancer survival rates of cancer patients. METHODS: This prospective cohort study included 20,491 surviving patients first diagnosed with cancer in Guangzhou from 2010 to 2019. They were divided into a training and a validation group. Lifestyle, clinical and histological parameters (LCH) were included in multivariable Cox regression. Akaike information criterion was used to select prediction factors for the nomogram. The discrimination and calibration of models were assessed by concordance index (C-index), area under time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (time-dependent AUC), and calibration plots. We used net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) to compare the clinical utility of LCH prediction model with the prediction model based on lifestyle factors (LF). RESULTS: 13 prediction factors including age, sex, BMI, smoking status, physical activity, sleep duration, regular diet, tumor grading, TNM stage, multiple primary cancer and anatomical site were included in the LCH model. The LCH model showed satisfactory discrimination and calibration (C-index = 0.81 (95% CI 0.80-0.82) for training group and 0.80 (0.79-0.81) for validation group, both time-dependent AUC > 0.70). The LF model including smoking status, physical activity, sleep duration, regular diet, and BMI showed less satisfactory discrimination (C-index = 0.60 (95% CI 0.59-0.61) for training and 0.60 (0.58-0.62) for validation group). The LCH model had better accuracy and discriminative ability than the LF model, as indicated by positive NRI and IDI values. CONCLUSIONS: The LCH model shows good accuracy, clinical utility and precise prognosis prediction, and may serve as a tool to predict cancer survival of cancer patients.

Temporal Trends in the Incidence and Mortality of Major Reproductive-Related Cancers in Women in Guangzhou From 2010 to 2020: A Joinpoint and Age-Period-Cohort Study.

Objective: To understand the temporal trends of cancer incidence and mortality in women in Guangzhou during the past 11 years and provide clues for future research. Methods: Data were obtained from the Guangzhou Cancer and Death Registry. Average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) in age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) were obtained by joinpoint regression. The age-period-cohort (APC) model was generated to quantify the effects of age, period, and cohort. Results: The ASIRs for cervical (AAPC = -4.3%) and ovarian (AAPC = -3.2%) cancers showed a downward trend during 2010-2020, and that for uterine cancer showed an upward trend. The ASMRs of breast (APC = 5.0%) and cervical (APC = 8.8%) cancers increased. The APC model highlights different age, period, and birth cohort effects depending on the cancer site. Conclusion: The ASIRs for cervical and ovarian cancers among women in Guangzhou showed a decreasing trend during the period. The APC model showed mortality for 4 cancers increased with age. Incidence and mortality decreased with increasing birth cohort. Annual reproductive cancer screening is recommended for women of appropriate age to reduce the disease burden.

The risk of injuries during work and its association with precipitation: New insight from a sentinel-based surveillance and a case-crossover design.

Background: Injuries during work are often exogenous and can be easily influenced by environmental factors, especially weather conditions. Precipitation, a crucial weather factor, has been linked to unintentional injuries, yet evidence of its effect on work-related injuries is limited. Therefore, we aimed to clarify the impact of precipitation on injuries during work as well as its variation across numerous vulnerability features. Methods: Records on the work-related injury during 2016-2020 were obtained from four sentinel hospitals in Guangzhou, China, and were matched with the daily weather data during the same period. We applied a time-stratified case-crossover design followed by a conditional logistic regression to evaluate the association between precipitation and work-related injuries. Covariates included wind speed, sunlight, temperature, SO 2, NO 2, and PM 2.5. Results were also stratified by multiple factors to identify the most vulnerable subgroups. Results: Daily precipitation was a positive predictor of work-related injuries, with each 10 mm increase in precipitation being associated with an increase of 1.57% in the rate of injuries on the same day and 1.47-1.14% increase of injuries on subsequent 3 days. The results revealed that precipitation had a higher effect on work-related injuries in winter (4.92%; 95%CI: 1.77-8.17%). The elderly (2.07%; 95%CI: 0.64-3.51%), male (1.81%; 95%CI: 0.96-2.66%) workers or those with lower educational levels (2.58%; 95%CI: 1.59-3.54%) were more likely to suffer from injuries on rainy days. There was a higher risk for work-related injuries caused by falls (2.63%; 95%CI: 0.78-4.52%) or the use of glass products (1.75%; 95%CI: 0.49-3.02%) on rainy days. Conclusions: Precipitation was a prominent risk factor for work-related injury, and its adverse effect might endure for 3 days. Certain sub-groups of workers were more vulnerable to injuries in the rain.

The association between wind speed and the risk of injuries among preschool children: New insight from a sentinel-surveillance-based study.

BACKGROUND: Injuries among preschool children are an important public health concern worldwide. Significant gaps remain in understanding the potential impact of wind speed on injuries among preschoolers. We aimed to clarify the association and its variation across subgroups to capture the vulnerability features. METHODS: Using a case-crossover design and conditional logistic regression model, we compared the exposure to wind speed right before the injury events (case period) with that of control periods to determine the excess rate (ER) of injury on each of 0-3 lag days in Guangzhou, 2016-2020. Results were also stratified by sociodemographic characteristics of patients, basic characteristics of injury events, and clinical features of injuries to identify the most vulnerable subgroups of preschoolers. RESULTS: Higher wind speed was significantly associated with an increased risk of injuries among preschoolers on lag 0, reaching an ER of 2.93 % (95 % confidence interval [CI] = 0.87, 5.03), but not on other lag days. The results of the stratified analyses showed that children under 3-year-old (3.41 %; 95 % CI = 0.36, 6.55), boys (3.66 %; 95 % CI = 1.04, 6.35), and non-locally registered children (3.65; 95 % CI = 0.02, 7.40) were more prone to wind-related injuries. Falls (2.67 %; 95 % CI = 0.11, 5.30) were the main cause of wind-related injuries, and taking transportation was the main activity when injuries occurred (13.16 %; 95 % CI = 4.45, 22.60). Additionally, injuries involving buildings/grounds/obstacles (4.69 %; 95 % CI = 1.66, 7.81) and the occurrence of sprain/strain (7.60 %; 95 % CI = 0.64, 15.04) showed a positive association with wind speed. CONCLUSIONS: Higher wind speed was associated with a significantly elevated rate of injuries among preschoolers without delayed effects, where children under 3-year-old, boys, and non-locally registered subgroups were more susceptible to wind-related injuries. This study may provide new insights for refining the prevention measures against wind-related injuries among preschoolers.

The role of meteorological factors on influenza incidence among children in Guangzhou China, 2019-2022.

Objective: Analyzing the epidemiological characteristics of influenza cases among children aged 0-17 years in Guangzhou from 2019 to 2022. Assessing the relationships between multiple meteorological factors and influenza, improving the early warning systems for influenza, and providing a scientific basis for influenza prevention and control measures. Methods: The influenza data were obtained from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Meteorological data were provided by Guangdong Meteorological Service. Spearman correlation analysis was conducted to examine the relevance between meteorological factors and the number of influenza cases. Distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM) were used to explore the effects of meteorological factors on influenza incidence. Results: The relationship between mean temperature, rainfall, sunshine hours, and influenza cases presented a wavy pattern. The correlation between relative humidity and influenza cases was illustrated by a U-shaped curve. When the temperature dropped below 13°C, Relative risk (RR) increased sharply with decreasing temperature, peaking at 5.7°C with an RR of 83.78 (95% CI: 25.52, 275.09). The RR was increased when the relative humidity was below 66% or above 79%, and the highest RR was 7.50 (95% CI: 22.92, 19.25) at 99%. The RR was increased exponentially when the rainfall exceeded 1,625 mm, reaching a maximum value of 2566.29 (95% CI: 21.85, 3558574.07) at the highest rainfall levels. Both low and high sunshine hours were associated with reduced incidence of influenza, and the lowest RR was 0.20 (95% CI: 20.08, 0.49) at 9.4 h. No significant difference of the meteorological factors on influenza was observed between males and females. The impacts of cumulative extreme low temperature and low relative humidity on influenza among children aged 0-3 presented protective effects and the 0-3 years group had the lowest RRs of cumulative extreme high relative humidity and rainfall. The highest RRs of cumulative extreme effect of all meteorological factors (expect sunshine hours) were observed in the 7-12 years group. Conclusion: Temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, and sunshine hours can be used as important predictors of influenza in children to improve the early warning system of influenza. Extreme weather reduces the risk of influenza in the age group of 0-3 years, but significantly increases the risk for those aged 7-12 years.

Bioinformatics Analysis and Validation of the Role of Lnc-RAB11B-AS1 in the Development and Prognosis of Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

Lnc-RAB11B-AS1 is reported to be dysregulated in several types of cancers and can function as both an oncogene and tumor suppressor gene. To evaluate the potential role of lnc-RAB11B-AS1 in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), we investigated and evaluated its expression in HCC based on the data mining of a series of public databases, including TCGA, GEO, ICGC, HPA, DAVID, cBioPortal, GeneMIANA, TIMER, and ENCORI. The data showed downregulation of lnc-RAB11B-AS1 in HCC and was accompanied by the synchronous downregulation of the targeted RAB11B mRNA and its protein. Low expression of lnc-RAB11B-AS1 was associated with shorter overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) of HCC patients, PD1/PD-L1 was correlated with low expression of RAB11B. Furthermore, Gene Ontology (GO) functional annotation and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) pathway enrichment analysis showed a correlation between immune cell change and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. The above findings revealed that lnc-RAB11B-AS1 was down-regulated in HCC and closely associated with the clinical stage of the HCC patients, suggesting that lnc-RAB11B-AS1 could be a possible predictor for HCC and a potential new therapeutic target for the treatment of HCC.

Association between meteorological factors and elderly falls in injury surveillance from 2014 to 2018 in Guangzhou, China.

Introduction: With rapid increase in the aging population, falls injuries have become an important public health problem. However, limited data have been reported on the associations between meteorological factors and falls injuries in the elderly. This study assessed the epidemiology of falls injuries and explored this association in the elderly in Guangzhou, China. Methods: Data on elderly falls injury cases and meteorological variables from 2014 to 2018 in Guangzhou were collected from the Guangzhou Injury Monitoring System and Guangzhou Meteorological Bureau, respectively. The monthly average data on falls injuries and meteorological factors were applied to the data analysis. These correlations were conducted using Pearson correlation analysis. A multiple linear regression model was used to estimate the effects of meteorological factors on falls injuries in the elderly in Guangzhou, China. Results: Accounting for 49.41% of causes of elderly injury were falls in the Guangzhou Injury Monitoring System from 2014 to 2018, which occupied first place for five consecutive years. The monthly number of elderly falls injury cases was lowest in April and highest in December, and had a positive correlation with monthly mean wind speed (r = 0.187, P < 0.01) and a negative correlation with monthly atmospheric pressure (r = -0.142, P < 0.05). A multiple linear regression model was constructed (F = 10.176, P < 0.01), which explained 23.7% of the variances (R 2 = 0.237). Monthly mean wind speed (ß = 76.85, P < 0.01) and monthly mean atmospheric pressure (ß = -3.162, P < 0.01) were independent factors affecting monthly elderly falls injuries. Conclusions: Falls are the primary cause of injury among elderly people in Guangzhou, China. Meteorological factors are related to falls injuries in the elderly population. Decreasing activity during high wind and low atmospheric pressure weather may help reduce the number of elderly falls injury cases.

Follow-up of patients with COVID-19 by the Delta variant after hospital discharge in Guangzhou, Guandong, China.

The B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has contributed to a new increment in cases across the globe. We conducted a prospective follow-up of COVID-19 cases to explore the recurrence and potential propagation risk of the Delta variant and discuss potential explanations for the infection recurrence. A prospective, non-interventional follow-up of discharged patients who had SARS-CoV-2 infections by the Delta variant in Guangdong, China, from May 2021 to June 2021 was conducted. The subjects were asked to complete a physical health examination and undergo nucleic acid testing and antibody detection for the laboratory diagnosis of COVID-19. In total, 20.33% (25/123) of patients exhibited recurrent positive results after discharge. All patients with infection recurrence were asymptomatic and showed no abnormalities in the pulmonary computed tomography. The time from discharge to the recurrent positive testing was usually between 1-33 days, with a mean time of 9.36 days. The cycle threshold from the real-time polymerase chain reaction assay that detected the recurrence of positivity ranged from 27.48 to 39.00, with an average of 35.30. The proportion of vaccination in the non-recurrent group was higher than that in the recurrently positive group (26% vs. 4%; χ2 = 7.902; P < 0.05). Two months after discharge, the most common symptom was hair loss and 59.6% of patients had no long-term symptoms at all. It is possible for the Delta variant SARS-CoV-2 patients after discharge to show recurrent positive results of nucleic acid detection; however, there is a low risk of continuous community transmission. Both, the physical and mental quality of life of discharged patients were significantly affected. Our results suggest that it makes sense to implement mass vaccination against the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2.

Disparities in the increases of cervical cancer incidence rates: observations from a city-wide population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Globally cervical cancer incidence rate has been declining continuously. However, an unfavorable trend has been observed in China during the past decades, and the underlying reasons remain unclear. We hereby explore the recent trends of cervical cancer incidence, as well as the underlying determinants using data from Guangzhou, one of biggest cities in China. METHODS: City-wide cancer registration data were obtained from the Guangzhou Center for Disease Prevention and Control from 2004 to 2018. We used the Joinpoint regression models to estimate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of age-standardized and age-specific incidence rates by regions and by histological subtype. Age-period-cohort models were applied to analyze the period and birth cohort effects on the time trends. RESULTS: The age-standardized rates (ASRs) of cervical cancer incidence increased at an annual rate of 2.1% [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.0%-3.2%] during 2004-2018. The largest increase in ASRs was found for rural regions, with AAPC of 6.6% [95% CI: 3.7%-9.5%], followed by the suburbs (2.2% [95% CI: 1.0%-3.4%]), while there was no statistically significant increase in urban regions. The ASRs of adenocarcinoma increased faster than those of the squamous cell carcinoma (AAPC = 6.53% [95% CI: 5.0%-8.1%] versus 1.79% [95% CI: 0.8%-2.8%]). A downward trend in urban regions was found in the 20-49 age group, whereas an upward trend was found in the 50 + age group, especially in rural regions. An inverted V-shape was found for cohort effects, with the peak varied by regions, i.e., peaked in the 1966 and 1971 birth cohort in the urban and suburb regions, respectively. Period effects kept increasing during the study period. CONCLUSIONS: We systematically examine the disparities in the increases of cervical cancer incidence rates using city-wide data from Guangzhou. Extensive efforts are warranted to address the large urban-rural disparities in cervical cancer prevention. The combined strategies of vaccination, screening, and health education should be reinforced and locally customized.

A risk-prediction score for colorectal lesions on 12,628 participants at high risk of colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: The uptake of colonoscopy is low in individuals at risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). We constructed a risk-prediction score (RPS) in a large community-based sample at high risk of CRC to enable more accurate risk stratification and to motivate and increase the uptake rate of colonoscopy. METHODS: A total of 12,628 participants classified as high-risk according to positivity of immunochemical fecal occult blood tests or High-Risk Factor Questionnaire underwent colonoscopy. Logistic regression was used to derive a RPS and analysed the associations of the RPS with colorectal lesions, giving odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: Of the participants, men (OR = 1.73, 95% CI = 1.58-1.90), older age (≥65 years; 1.41, 1.31-1.53), higher body mass index (≥28 kg/m2; 1.22, 1.07-1.39), ever smoking (1.47, 1.31-1.65), and weekly alcohol use (1.28, 1.09-1.52) were associated with a higher risk of colorectal lesions. We assigned 1 point to each of the above five risk factors and derived a RPS ranging from 0 to 5, with a higher score indicating a higher risk. Compared with a RPS of 0, a RPS of 1, 2, 3, and 4-5 showed a higher risk of colorectal lesions, with the OR (95% CI) being 1.50 (1.37-1.63), 2.34 (2.12-2.59), 3.58 (3.13-4.10), and 3.91 (3.00-5.10), respectively. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of RPS in predicting colorectal lesions was 0.62. CONCLUSIONS: Participants with an increase in the RPS of ≥1 point had a significantly higher risk of colorectal lesions, suggesting the urgency for measuring colonoscopy in this very high-risk group. High-risk strategies incorporating RPS may be employed to achieve a higher colonoscopy-uptake rate.

Follow-up of patients with COVID-19 by the Delta variant after hospital discharge in Guangzhou, Guandong, China

ABSTRACT The B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has contributed to a new increment in cases across the globe. We conducted a prospective follow-up of COVID-19 cases to explore the recurrence and potential propagation risk of the Delta variant and discuss potential explanations for the infection recurrence. A prospective, non-interventional follow-up of discharged patients who had SARS-CoV-2 infections by the Delta variant in Guangdong, China, from May 2021 to June 2021 was conducted. The subjects were asked to complete a physical health examination and undergo nucleic acid testing and antibody detection for the laboratory diagnosis of COVID-19. In total, 20.33% (25/123) of patients exhibited recurrent positive results after discharge. All patients with infection recurrence were asymptomatic and showed no abnormalities in the pulmonary computed tomography. The time from discharge to the recurrent positive testing was usually between 1-33 days, with a mean time of 9.36 days. The cycle threshold from the real-time polymerase chain reaction assay that detected the recurrence of positivity ranged from 27.48 to 39.00, with an average of 35.30. The proportion of vaccination in the non-recurrent group was higher than that in the recurrently positive group (26% vs. 4%; χ2 = 7.902; P < 0.05). Two months after discharge, the most common symptom was hair loss and 59.6% of patients had no long-term symptoms at all. It is possible for the Delta variant SARS-CoV-2 patients after discharge to show recurrent positive results of nucleic acid detection; however, there is a low risk of continuous community transmission. Both, the physical and mental quality of life of discharged patients were significantly affected. Our results suggest that it makes sense to implement mass vaccination against the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2.

Association of healthy lifestyle score with all-cause mortality and life expectancy: a city-wide prospective cohort study of cancer survivors.

BACKGROUND: Adherence to a healthy lifestyle could reduce the cancer mortality in the western population. We conducted a city-wide prospective study in China investigating the association of a healthy lifestyle score with all-cause mortality and the life expectancy in cancer survivors. METHODS: This prospective cohort study included 46,120 surviving patients who were firstly diagnosed with cancer in Guangzhou. Five low-risk lifestyle factors including never smoking, never alcohol use, regular physical activity (≥ 2 h/week), sufficient sleep (≥ 6 h/day), and normal or high BMI (≥ 18.5 kg/m2) were assessed and a lifestyle score (0-5, a higher score indicates healthier lifestyle) was generated. Hazard ratios (HRs) of all-cause mortality and the life expectancy by levels of the lifestyle scores were estimated. RESULTS: Of 46,120 cancer survivors registered from 2010 to 2017, during an average follow-up of 4.3 years (200,285 person-years), 15,209 deaths were recorded. Adjusted HRs for mortality in cancer survivors with lifestyle score of 0-2, versus 5, were 2.59 (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.03-3.30) in women, 1.91 (95%CI 1.77-2.05) in men, 2.28 (95%CI 2.03-2.55) in those aged <65 years, and 1.90 (95%CI 1.75, 2.05) in those aged ≥ 65 years. Life expectancy at age 55 for those with a score of 0-2 and 5 was 53.4 and 57.1 months, respectively. We also found that cancer survivors with healthy lifestyle scores of 5 showed 59.9 months of life expectancy on average, which was longer than those with a score of 0-2. CONCLUSION: Adopting a healthy lifestyle was associated with a substantially lower risk of all-cause mortality and longer life expectancy in cancer survivors. Our findings should be useful for health education and health promotion in primary care and clinical practice.

Probabilistic risk assessment of dietary exposure to aflatoxin B1 in Guangzhou, China.

Aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) contamination in foods is an important health challenge for low-and middle-income countries in subtropical regions. AFB1 has been detected in a variety of foodsin Guangzhou, while the risk of dietary exposure is unknown. This study aimed to assess the probabilistic risk of dietary exposure to AFB1 contamination in food stuffs in Guangzhou by using margin of exposure (MOE) and quantitative liver cancer risk approaches. A total of1854 AFB1-contaminated foodstuffs were sampled in supermarkets, agricultural markets, retail shops, and family workshops from 11 districts of Guangzhou, and AFB1 content was determined by HPLC-fluorescence detector. In total, 9.9% (184/1854) of the test samples had AFB1 concentrations above the limit of detection. Home-made peanut oil had the highest AFB1 concentration, with a mean value of 38.74 ± 47.45 µg kg-1. The average MOE levels of Guangzhou residents ranged from 100 to 1000. The risk of liver cancer was 0.0264 cancers (100,000 population year)-1. The health risks of suburban people were higher than those of urban people, and home-made peanut oil was the main contributorto dietary exposure to AFB1 among suburban residents in Guangzhou. The production of home-made peanut oil should be supervised to reduce the risk of AFB1 exposure.

Dietary Lead Exposure and Associated Health Risks in Guangzhou, China.

Lead exposure is associated with a wide range of adverse effects on human health. The principal exposure route in the general population is through the diet. In this study, we estimate the dietary lead intake and associated health risks among the residents of Guangzhou, China. Data on lead concentrations were derived from the food safety risk monitoring system, which included 6339 samples from 27 food categories collected in 2014-2017. Food consumption data were taken from a 2011 dietary survey of 2960 Guangzhou residents from 998 households. Dietary lead intake was estimated by age group (3-6, 7-17, 18-59, and ≥60 years), and relevant health risks were assessed using the margin of exposure (MOE) method. The mean and 95th percentiles (P95) of dietary lead intake were respectively 0.7466 and 2.4525 µg/kg body weight per day for preschool children aged 3-6 years; 0.4739 and 1.5522 µg/kg bw/day for school children aged 7-17 years; 0.3759 and 1.1832 µg/kg bw/day for adults aged 18-59 years; and 0.4031 and 1.3589 µg/kg bw/day for adults aged ≥60 years. The MOE value was less than 1 for preschool children at the mean exposure level and for all age groups at the P95 exposure level. Rice and its products, leafy vegetables, and wheat flour and its products were found to be the primary food sources of lead exposure. Our findings suggest that the health risk from dietary lead exposure is low for Guangzhou residents overall, but that young children and consumers of certain foods may be at increased risk. Continued efforts are needed to reduce the dietary lead exposure in Guangzhou.

An Assessment of Dietary Exposure to Cadmium in Residents of Guangzhou, China.

Cadmium and its compounds are human carcinogens with severe organ toxicity, and their contamination of agricultural soil in China has been frequently reported; however, the dietary exposure to cadmium in residents and the relevant health risk have seldom been reported. In this study, the concentration of cadmium in various types of food collected from 2013 to 2015 were analyzed using graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry, and the dietary exposure to cadmium assessed based on a dietary survey in 2976 Guangzhou residents. In total, 3074 out of 4039 food samples had cadmium levels above the limit of detection. The mean ± standard deviation (50th, 95th percentile) cadmium content in all samples was 159.0 ± 112.7 (8.6, 392.4) µg/kg, with levels ranging from 1.0 to 7830 µg/kg. Using the mean cadmium concentrations, the average monthly dietary exposure of Guangzhou residents to cadmium was 14.4 (µg/kg body weight (BW), accounting for 57.6% of the provisional tolerable monthly intake (PTMI). Rice, laver, vegetables, and live aquatic products were the main sources of cadmium intake, on average accounting for 89% of the total value. The dietary cadmium exposure in high consumers (95th percentile food consumption) was 41.0 µg/kg·BW/month, accounting for 163% of the PTMI. Additionally, dietary cadmium exposure at mean consumption but high cadmium food concentration (95th percentile) was 32.3 µg/kg·BW/month, corresponding to 129% of the PTMI. The level of dietary exposure to cadmium in most Guangzhou residents was within the safety limit, thus increased health risk from dietary cadmium exposure is low at present. However, continued efforts by local governments to monitor the levels of cadmium in the four main food categories contributing to exposure are necessary.