Analysis of fatality impact and seroprevalence surveys in a community sustaining a SARS-CoV-2 superspreading event.

There is an ongoing debate on the COVID-19 infection fatality rate (IFR) and the impact of COVID-19 on overall population mortality. Here, we addressed these issues in a community in Germany with a major superspreader event analyzing deaths over time and auditing death certificates in the community.18 deaths that occurred within the first six months of the pandemic had a positive test for SARS-CoV-2. Six out of 18 deaths had non-COVID-19 related causes of death (COD). Individuals with COVID-19 COD typically died of respiratory failure (75%) and tended to have fewer reported comorbidities (p = 0.029). Duration between first confirmed infection and death was negatively associated with COVID-19 being COD (p = 0.04). Repeated seroprevalence essays in a cross-sectional epidemiological study showed modest increases in seroprevalence over time, and substantial seroreversion (30%). IFR estimates accordingly varied depending on COVID-19 death attribution. Careful ascertainment of COVID-19 deaths is important in understanding the impact of the pandemic.

Editorial special issue: Statistics in sports.

Triggered by advances in data gathering technologies, the use of statistical analyzes, predictions and modeling techniques in sports has gained a rapidly growing interest over the last decades. Today, professional sports teams have access to precise player positioning data and sports scientists design experiments involving non-standard data structures like movement-trajectories. This special issue on statistics in sports is dedicated to further foster the development of statistics and its applications in sports. The contributed articles address a wide range of statistical problems such as statistical methods for prediction of game outcomes, for prevention of sports injuries, for analyzing sports science data from movement laboratories, for measurement and evaluation of player performance, etc. Finally, also SARS-CoV-2 pandemic-related impacts on the sport's framework are investigated.

PCA of waveforms and functional PCA: A primer for biomechanics.

Principal components analysis (PCA) of waveforms and functional PCA (fPCA) are statistical approaches used to explore patterns of variability in biomechanical curve data, with fPCA being an accepted statistical method grounded within the functional data analysis (FDA) statistical framework. This technical note demonstrates that PCA of waveforms is the most rudimentary form of FDA, and consequently can be rationalised within the FDA framework of statistical processes. Mathematical proofing applied demonstrations of both techniques, and an example of when fPCA may be of greater benefit to control over smoothing of functional principal components is provided using an open access motion sickness dataset. Finally, open access software is provided with this paper as means of priming the biomechanics community for using these methods as a part of future functional data explorations.

Adaptation of Running Biomechanics to Repeated Barefoot Running: A Randomized Controlled Study.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have shown that changing acutely from shod to barefoot running induces several changes to running biomechanics, such as altered ankle kinematics, reduced ground-reaction forces, and reduced loading rates. However, uncertainty exists whether these effects still exist after a short period of barefoot running habituation. PURPOSE/HYPOTHESIS: The purpose was to investigate the effects of a habituation to barefoot versus shod running on running biomechanics. It was hypothesized that a habituation to barefoot running would induce different adaptations of running kinetics and kinematics as compared with a habituation to cushioned footwear running or no habituation. STUDY DESIGN: Controlled laboratory study. METHODS: Young, physically active adults without experience in barefoot running were randomly allocated to a barefoot habituation group, a cushioned footwear group, or a passive control group. The 8-week intervention in the barefoot and footwear groups consisted of 15 minutes of treadmill running at 70% of VO2 max (maximal oxygen consumption) velocity per weekly session in the allocated footwear. Before and after the intervention period, a 3-dimensional biomechanical analysis for barefoot and shod running was conducted on an instrumented treadmill. The passive control group did not receive any intervention but was also tested prior to and after 8 weeks. Pre- to posttest changes in kinematics, kinetics, and spatiotemporal parameters were then analyzed with a mixed effects model. RESULTS: Of the 60 included participants (51.7% female; mean ± SD age, 25.4 ± 3.3 years; body mass index, 22.6 ± 2.1 kg·m-2), 53 completed the study (19 in the barefoot habituation group, 18 in the shod habituation group, and 16 in the passive control group). Acutely, running barefoot versus shod influenced foot strike index and ankle, foot, and knee angles at ground contact (P < .001), as well as vertical average loading rate (P = .003), peak force (P < .001), contact time (P < .001), flight time (P < .001), step length (P < .001), and cadence (P < .001). No differences were found for average force (P = .391). After the barefoot habituation period, participants exhibited more anterior foot placement (P = .006) when running barefoot, while no changes were observed in the footwear condition. Furthermore, barefoot habituation increased the vertical average loading rates in both conditions (barefoot, P = .01; shod, P = .003) and average vertical ground-reaction forces for shod running (P = .039). All other outcomes (ankle, foot, and knee angles at ground contact and flight time, contact time, cadence, and peak forces) did not change significantly after the 8-week habituation. CONCLUSION: Changing acutely from shod to barefoot running in a habitually shod population increased the foot strike index and reduced ground-reaction force and loading rates. After the habituation to barefoot running, the foot strike index was further increased, while the force and average loading rates also increased as compared with the acute barefoot running situation. The increased average loading rate is contradictory to other studies on acute adaptations of barefoot running. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: A habituation to barefoot running led to increased vertical average loading rates. This finding was unexpected and questions the generalizability of acute adaptations to long-term barefoot running. Sports medicine professionals should consider these adaptations in their recommendations regarding barefoot running as a possible measure for running injury prevention. REGISTRATION: DRKS00011073 (German Clinical Trial Register).

On the validity of statistical parametric mapping for nonuniformly and heterogeneously smooth one-dimensional biomechanical data.

Nonuniform (non-constant) temporal smoothness can arise in biomechanical processes like impacts, and heterogeneous smoothness (unequal smoothness across observations) can arise in mechanically diverse comparisons such as padded vs. unpadded impacts, where padded dynamics are generally smoother than unpadded dynamics. It has been reported that statistical parametric mapping's (SPM's) probability values can be invalid for such cases. The purpose of this paper was to clarify the scope of validity for SPM analysis of nonuniformly and heterogeneously smooth one-dimensional (1D) data. We simulated a variety of nonuniformly and heterogeneously smooth Gaussian 1D data over a range of smoothness values, and computed Type I error rates across 10,000 simulation iterations for each smoothness type. Results showed that, in all cases, SPM accurately controlled error at the prescribed α=0.05. Moreover, the distribution of false positives was uniform across time, implying that all regions are equally likely to produce false positives, irrespective of local roughness. We nevertheless show that cluster-level inferences (i.e., p values specific to local regions of significance), while never exceeding alpha (by definition), may be over-or-underestimated by approximately 0.01 for the currently simulated scenarios. We conclude that SPM's null hypothesis rejection decisions are valid for both nonuniform and heterogeneous 1D data, but that clusters' p values may be marginally too small/large in rough/smooth regions, respectively. Since cluster-level p values never exceed α, these p value errors are negligible for hypothesis testing purposes. Nevertheless, inter-cluster p value comparisons should be avoided. Implications for statistical power and general results interpretation are discussed.

Effects of barefoot and footwear conditions on learning of a dynamic balance task: a randomized controlled study.

PURPOSE: Although barefoot balancing has shown to be more challenging compared to shod balancing, it is still unclear whether this may also influence the balance learning effects. The purpose of this study was to explore the impact of barefoot and shod exercising on learning of a dynamic balance task. METHODS: Sixty healthy and physically active adults (mean age 25.3 ± 3.4 years) were randomly allocated into one of three groups (barefoot, shod and controls). The barefoot and shod intervention groups exercised once weekly over 7 weeks on a stability platform with an unstable surface. Each training session included 15 trials over 30 s. Before and after the intervention period, all participants completed two balance tests (stability platform and Balance Error Scoring System = BESS) under barefoot and shod conditions. Group effects in stability gains (pre to post-test differences) were analysed using ANOVA. Development of balance learning curves during the intervention period was analysed using a mixed effects model. RESULTS: Balance times improved in both intervention groups (p < 0.001, 95% CI barefoot 5.82-9.22 s, shod 7.51-10.92 s) compared to controls. The barefoot intervention group showed a significantly less sloped balance learning curve compared to the shod intervention group (p = 0.033). No changes over time or differences between groups were found for the BESS test. CONCLUSIONS: Improvements in the dynamic balance task did not differ between individuals exercising barefoot or with footwear although the progression was slower in the barefoot group. The lack of changes in the BESS supports the task-specificity of balance learning effects.

Gait Stability and Its Influencing Factors in Older Adults.

A stable gait pattern is a prerequisite to successfully master various activities of daily living. Furthermore, reduced gait stability is associated with a higher risk of falling. To provide specific intervention strategies to improve gait stability, gaining detailed knowledge of the underlying mechanism and influencing factors is of utmost importance. The effects of relevant influencing factors on gait stability are poorly examined, yet. Therefore, the aim of the current study was to quantify the effects of various influencing factors on gait stability. In a cross-sectional study, we assessed dynamic gait stability and relevant influencing factors in 102 older adults (age >65 years). In addition to dynamic gait stability (largest Lyapunov exponent [LLE] and gait variability measures) during normal over-ground (single-task: ST) and dual-task (DT) walking, we registered the following influencing factors: health status (SF12), pain status (painDETECT, SES), fear of falling (falls efficacy scale), depression (CES-D), cognition performance (Stroop test), physical activity (Freiburger Fragebogen zur körperlichen Aktivität), proprioception (joint position sense), peripheral sensation (mechanical and vibration detection threshold), balance performance (static balance on force plate) and muscular fitness (instrumented sit-to-stand test). We used a principal components regression to link the identified principal components with the gait stability and gait variability responses. The four principal components "strength and gender" (e.g., p = 0.001 for LLE during ST), "physical activity" (e.g., p = 0.006 for LLE during ST), "pain" (e.g., p = 0.030 for LLE during DT) and "peripheral sensation" (e.g., p = 0.002 for LLE during ST) were each significantly associated with at least two of the analyzed gait stability/variability measures. The dimension "balance" was a significant predictor in only one gait measure. While "proprioception" tends to correlate with a gait variability measure, we did not find a dependency of mental health on any gait measure. In conclusion, the participants' ability to recover from small perturbations (as measured with the largest Lyapunov exponent) seems to be related to gender and strength, the amount of physical activity the participants spent every week, peripheral sensation and pain status. Since the explained variance is still rather low, there could be more relevant factors that were not addressed, yet.

Ankle plantarflexion strength in rearfoot and forefoot runners: a novel clusteranalytic approach.

The purpose of the present study was to test for differences in ankle plantarflexion strengths of habitually rearfoot and forefoot runners. In order to approach this issue, we revisit the problem of classifying different footfall patterns in human runners. A dataset of 119 subjects running shod and barefoot (speed 3.5m/s) was analyzed. The footfall patterns were clustered by a novel statistical approach, which is motivated by advances in the statistical literature on functional data analysis. We explain the novel statistical approach in detail and compare it to the classically used strike index of Cavanagh and Lafortune (1980). The two groups found by the new cluster approach are well interpretable as a forefoot and a rearfoot footfall groups. The subsequent comparison study of the clustered subjects reveals that runners with a forefoot footfall pattern are capable of producing significantly higher joint moments in a maximum voluntary contraction (MVC) of their ankle plantarflexor muscles tendon units; difference in means: 0.28Nm/kg. This effect remains significant after controlling for an additional gender effect and for differences in training levels. Our analysis confirms the hypothesis that forefoot runners have a higher mean MVC plantarflexion strength than rearfoot runners. Furthermore, we demonstrate that our proposed stochastic cluster analysis provides a robust and useful framework for clustering foot strikes.