A randomized comparison of home visits and hospital-based group follow-up visits after early postpartum discharge.

OBJECTIVE: Short postpartum stays are common. Current guidelines provide scant guidance on how routine follow-up of newly discharged mother-infant pairs should be performed. We aimed to compare 2 short-term (within 72 hours of discharge) follow-up strategies for low-risk mother-infant pairs with postpartum length of stay (LOS) of <48 hours: home visits by a nurse and hospital-based follow-up anchored in group visits. METHODS: We used a randomized clinical trial design with intention-to-treat analysis in an integrated managed care setting that serves a largely middle class population. Mother-infant pairs that met LOS and risk criteria were randomized to the control arm (hospital-based follow-up) or to the intervention arm (home nurse visit). Clinical utilization and costs were studied using computerized databases and chart review. Breastfeeding continuation, maternal depressive symptoms, and maternal satisfaction were assessed by means of telephone interviews at 2 weeks postpartum. RESULTS: During a 17-month period in 1998 to 1999, we enrolled and randomized 1014 mother-infant pairs (506 to the control group and 508 to the intervention group). There were no significant differences between the study groups with respect to maternal age, race, education, household income, parity, previous breastfeeding experience, early initiation of prenatal care, or postpartum LOS. There were no differences with respect to neonatal LOS or Apgar scores. In the control group, 264 mother-infant pairs had an individual visit only, 157 had a group visit only, 64 had both a group and an individual visit, 4 had a home health and a hospital-based follow-up, 13 had no follow-up within 72 hours, and 4 were lost to follow-up. With respect to outcomes within 2 weeks after discharge, there were no significant differences in newborn or maternal hospitalizations or urgent care visits, breastfeeding discontinuation, maternal depressive symptoms, or a combined clinical outcome measure indicating whether a mother-infant pair had any of the above outcomes. However, mothers in the home visit group were more likely than those in the control group to rate multiple aspects of their care as excellent or very good. These included the preventive advice delivered (76% vs 59%) and the skills and abilities of the provider (84% vs 73%). Mothers in the home visit group also gave higher ratings on overall satisfaction with the newborn's posthospital care (71% vs 59%), as well as with their own posthospital care (63% vs 55%). The estimated cost of a postpartum home visit to the mother and the newborn was $265. In contrast, the cost of the hospital-based group visit was $22 per mother-infant pair; the cost of an individual 15-minute visit with a registered nurse was $52; the cost of a 15-minute individual pediatrician visit was $92; and the cost of a 10-minute visit with an obstetrician was $92. CONCLUSIONS: For low-risk mothers and newborns in an integrated managed care organization, home visits compared with hospital-based follow-up and group visits were more costly but achieved comparable clinical outcomes and were associated with higher maternal satisfaction. Neither strategy is associated with significantly greater success at increasing continuation of breastfeeding. This study had limited power to identify group differences in rehospitalization and may not be generalizable to higher-risk populations without comparable access to integrated hospital and outpatient care.

Beta agonists, inhaled steroids, and the risk of intensive care unit admission for asthma.

Although inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) use is associated with a decreased risk of hospitalization for asthma, the impact of ICS on the risk of life-threatening asthma exacerbation is less clear. The effect of ICS and inhaled beta agonist (IBA) dispensing on the risk of intensive care unit admission for asthma, a surrogate for life-threatening exacerbation, is evaluated. Using computerized International classification of diseases (ICD)-9 discharge diagnoses, a cohort of all 2,344 adult Northern California members of a health maintenance organization hospitalized for asthma over a 2-yr period were identified. Computerized pharmacy data was used to ascertain asthma medications dispensed during the 3-,6-, and 12-month intervals preceding index hospitalization for asthma. During the 3-months preceding hospitalization, a minority of subjects had no IBA units dispensed (34%), with 14% receiving low level (1 unit), 20% medium level (2-3 units), and 32% high level (> or = 4 units) therapy. A substantial proportion received no ICS units (55%), whereas 13% had low, 16% medium, and 15% high level therapy. In multiple logistic regression analysis, high level IBA use was associated with a greater risk of intensive care unit (ICU) admission for asthma after controlling for asthma severity. There was no relationship, however, between low or medium level IBA use and ICU admission. Conversely, medium level and high level ICS use were associated with a reduced risk of ICU admission. Analysing 6- and 12-month medication dispensing data, similar risk patterns were observed. Inhaled corticosteroid dispensing was associated with reduced risk of intensive care unit admission among adults hospitalized for asthma, whereas the opposite applied for high dose beta agonist usage. This suggests that ICS prescription to adults with moderate-to-severe asthma could reduce the risk of life-threatening exacerbation.

Impact of the change in polio vaccination schedule on immunization coverage rates: a study in two large health maintenance organizations.

OBJECTIVE: In January 1997, one of the most significant changes to United States vaccine policy occurred when polio immunization guidelines changed to recommend a schedule containing inactivated polio vaccine (IPV). There were concerns that parent or physician reluctance to accept IPV into the routine childhood immunization schedule would lead to lowered coverage. We determined whether adoption of an IPV schedule had a negative impact on immunization coverage. DESIGN: A cohort study of 2 large health maintenance organizations (HMOs), Group Health Cooperative and Kaiser Permanente Northern California, was conducted. For analysis at 12 months of age, children who were born between October 1, 1996, and December 31, 1997, and were commercially insured and covered by Medicaid were continuously enrolled; for analysis at 24 months of age, children who were born between October 1, 1996, and June 30, 1997, and were commercially insured and covered by Medicaid were continuously enrolled. The 3 measures of immunization status at 12 and 24 months of age were up-to-date status, cumulative time spent up-to-date, and the number of missed opportunity visits. RESULTS: At both HMOs, children who received IPV were as likely to be up to date at 12 months as were children who received oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV), whereas at Group Health, children who received IPV were slightly more likely to be up to date at 24 months (relative risk: 1.12; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.05, 1.19). These findings were consistent for children who were covered by Medicaid. At Kaiser Permanente, children who received IPV spent ~3 fewer days up to date in the first year of life, but this difference did not persist at 2 years of age. At Group Health, children who received IPV were no different from those who received OPV in terms of days spent up to date by 1 or 2 years of age. At Group Health, children who received IPV were less likely to have a missed opportunity by 12 months old (odds ratio [OR] 0.46; 95% CI: 0.31, 0.70), but this finding did not persist at 24 months of age. At Kaiser Permanente, children who received IPV were more likely to have a missed opportunity by 12 months (OR 2.06; 95% CI: 1.84, 2.30), and 24 months of age (OR 1.50; 95% CI: 1.36, 1.67). CONCLUSIONS: The changeover from an all-OPV schedule to one containing IPV had little if any negative impact on vaccine coverage. Use of IPV was associated with a small increase in the likelihood of being up to date at 2 years of age at one of the HMOs and conversely was associated with a small increase in the likelihood of having a missed-opportunity visit in the other HMO.polio, poliomyelitis, vaccination, immunization coverage.

Variation in clinician recommendations for multiple injections during adoption of inactivated polio vaccine.

OBJECTIVES: To describe variation in clinician recommendations for multiple injections during the adoption of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) in 2 large health maintenance organizations (HMOs), and to test the hypothesis that variation in recommendations would be associated with variation in immunization coverage rates. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study based on a survey of clinician practices 1 year after IPV was recommended and computerized immunization data from these clinicians' patients. STUDY SETTINGS: Two large West Coast HMOs: Kaiser Permanente in Northern California and Group Health Cooperative of Puget Sound. OUTCOME MEASURES: Immunization status of 8-month-olds and 24-month-olds cared for by the clinicians during the study. RESULTS: More clinicians at Group Health (82%), where a central guideline was issued, had adopted the IPV/oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) sequential schedule than at Kaiser (65%), where no central guideline was issued. Clinicians at both HMOs said that if multiple injections fell due at a visit and they elected to defer some vaccines, they would be most likely to defer the hepatitis B vaccine (HBV) for infants (40%). At Kaiser, IPV users were more likely than OPV users to recommend the first HBV at birth (64% vs 28%) or if they did not, to defer the third HBV to 8 months or later (62% vs 39%). In multivariate analyses, patients whose clinicians used IPV were as likely to be fully immunized at 8 months old as those whose clinicians used all OPV. At Kaiser, where there was variability in the maximum number of injections clinicians recommended at infant visits, providers who routinely recommended 3 or 4 injections at a visit had similar immunization coverage rates as those who recommended 1 or 2. At both HMOs, clinicians who strongly recommended all possible injections at a visit had higher immunization coverage rates at 8 months than those who offered parents the choice of deferring some vaccines to a subsequent visit (at Kaiser, odds ratio [OR]: 1.2; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.0-1.5; at Group Health, OR: 1.8; 95% CI: 1.1-2.8). CONCLUSIONS: Neither IPV adoption nor the use of multiple injections at infant visits were associated with reductions in immunization coverage. However, at the HMO without centralized immunization guidelines, IPV adoption was associated with changes in the timing of the first and third HBV. Clinical policymakers should continue to monitor practice variation as future vaccines are added to the infant immunization schedule.

Quality of life measurement clarifies the cost-effectiveness of Helicobacter pylori eradication in peptic ulcer disease and uninvestigated dyspepsia.

OBJECTIVES: Previous economic studies of Helicobacter pylori eradication in dyspepsia and peptic ulcer disease have not measured quality of life using utilities (preference probabilities), which are needed to compare the cost-effectiveness of such treatment to other health care interventions. The goals of this study were to measure quality of life in patients with dyspepsia or peptic ulcer and apply these measurements to published models of disease management to determine cost-effectiveness in dollars per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. METHODS: Utilities for dyspepsia and peptic ulcer disease were measured in adult patients (n = 73) on chronic acid suppression for peptic ulcer or ulcer-like dyspepsia. Median utility values were applied to the results of published cost-effectiveness analyses and a previously validated dyspepsia model. Cost-utility ratios for early H. pylori eradication in uninvestigated dyspepsia and peptic ulcer disease were then computed. RESULTS: The total disutility, or lost quality of life, for an ulcer was 0.11 QALY, of which 0.09 QALY was attributed to dyspeptic symptoms. After these results were incorporated into published studies, cost-utility ratios for ulcer treatment varied from $3,100 to $12,500 per QALY gained, whereas estimates for uninvestigated dyspepsia management ranged from $26,800 to $59,400 per QALY. Sensitivity analyses indicated a range of $1,300 to $27,300 per QALY for management of duodenal ulcer and $15,000 to $129,700 per QALY for dyspepsia. CONCLUSIONS: Strategies that emphasize early H. pylori eradication were cost-effective for patients with peptic ulcer and possibly cost-effective for patients with uninvestigated dyspepsia, relative to other medical interventions. Dyspeptic symptoms cause significant disutility that should be incorporated in future cost-effectiveness analyses of treatment strategies.

Does influenza vaccination prevent asthma exacerbations in children?

OBJECTIVE: Influenza can exacerbate asthma, particularly in children. The effectiveness of influenza vaccine in preventing influenza-related asthma exacerbations, however, is not known. We evaluated influenza vaccine effectiveness in protecting children against influenza-related asthma exacerbations. STUDY DESIGN: We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study with medical and vaccination records in 4 large health maintenance organizations in the United States during the 1993-1994, 1994-1995, and 1995-1996 influenza seasons. We studied children with asthma who were 1 through 6 years of age and who were identified by search of computerized databases of medical encounters and pharmacy dispensings. Main outcome measures were exacerbations of asthma evaluated in the emergency department or hospital. RESULTS: Unadjusted rates of asthma exacerbations were higher after influenza vaccination than before vaccination. After adjustment was done for asthma severity by means of a self-control method, however, the incidence rate ratios of asthma exacerbations after vaccination were 0.78 (95% CI: 0.55 to 1.10), 0.59 (0.43 to 0.81), and 0.65 (0.52 to 0.80) compared with the period before vaccination during the 3 influenza seasons. CONCLUSIONS: After controlling for asthma severity, we found that influenza vaccination protects against acute asthma exacerbations in children.

The hidden costs of infant vaccination.

Combination vaccines to minimize injections required for infant vaccination, and new vaccines with improved safety profiles, will pose increasingly complex choices for vaccine purchasers in the future. How much of a premium to pay for such vaccines might be determined by taking into account (1) the psychological burden of multiple injections during a single clinic visit, and the costs of any additional visits to minimize these, and (2) the medical, work-loss, and incidental costs of common vaccine-associated symptoms. This cross-sectional survey included randomly-selected parents of 1-8-month-old infants who received vaccines in a Northern California health maintenance organization (HMO) in 1997. Interviewers called parents 14 days after the infant's vaccination to administer a 10-minute closed-ended interview in English or Spanish. Parents were asked about infant symptoms after vaccination, their preferences regarding multiple injections and their (theoretical) willingness to pay to reduce the number of injections their infant would receive, or to avoid the adverse symptoms experienced. Among 1769 eligible infants, interviews were completed with parents of 1657 (93%). The psychological cost of multiple injections was estimated by the willingness of parents to pay a median of $25 to reduce injections from 4 to 3, $25 from 3 to 2, and $50 from 2 to 1. Vaccine-associated symptoms caused mean costs of $42 in medical utilization and $192 in work-loss among the families who experienced those events (Ns=62 and 35, respectively). When averaged among all 1657 study infants, vaccine-associated symptoms after the index vaccination visit resulted in $2.91 in medical utilization, $4.05 in work-loss, and $0.74 in direct nonmedical costs, yielding total financial costs of $7.70. Parents of infants who had vaccine-associated symptoms said they would have paid a median of $50 to avoid these symptoms. Fever and fussiness were associated in logistic regression analysis with a two-fold increase in the odds of medical utilization, and fever with more than a three-fold increase in work loss. We conclude that multiple injections during a single clinic visit entail psychological costs. The psychological costs of vaccine-associated symptoms, as measured by willingness-to-pay methods, are higher than those resulting from multiple injections. The financial costs of medical utilization and work-loss resulting from common vaccine-associated symptoms are non-negligible and should be incorporated in economic analyses.

A randomized comparison of home and clinic follow-up visits after early postpartum hospital discharge.

BACKGROUND: Recently enacted federal legislation mandates insurance coverage of at least 48 hours of postpartum hospitalization, but most mothers and newborns in the United States will continue to go home before the third postpartum day. National guidelines recommend a follow-up visit on the third or fourth postpartum day, but scant evidence exists about whether home or clinic visits are more effective. METHODS: We enrolled 1163 medically and socially low-risk mother-newborn pairs with uncomplicated delivery and randomly assigned them to receive home visits by nurses or pediatric clinic visits by nurse practitioners or physicians on the third or fourth postpartum day. In contrast with the 20-minute pediatric clinic visits, the home visits were longer (median: 70 minutes), included preventive counseling about the home environment, and included a physical examination of the mother. Clinical utilization and costs were studied using computerized databases. Breastfeeding continuation, maternal depressive symptoms, and maternal satisfaction were assessed by means of telephone interviews at 2 weeks' postpartum. RESULTS: Comparing the 580 pairs in the home visit group and the 583 pairs in the pediatric clinic visit group, no significant differences occurred in clinical outcomes as measured by maternal or newborn rehospitalization within 10 days postpartum, maternal or newborn urgent clinic visits within 10 days postpartum, or breastfeeding discontinuation or maternal depressive symptoms at the 2-week interview. The same was true for a combined clinical outcome measure indicating whether a mother-newborn pair had any of the above outcomes. In contrast, higher proportions of mothers in the home visit group rated as excellent or very good the preventive advice delivered (80% vs 44%), the provider's skills and abilities (87% vs 63%), the newborn's posthospital care (87% vs 59%), and their own posthospital care (75% vs 47%). On average, a home visit cost $255 and a pediatric clinic visit cost $120. CONCLUSIONS: For low-risk mothers and newborns in this integrated health maintenance organization, home visits compared with pediatric clinic visits on the third or fourth postpartum hospital day were more costly, but were associated with equivalent clinical outcomes and markedly higher maternal satisfaction. This study had limited power to identify group differences in rehospitalization, and may not be generalizable to higher-risk populations without comparable access to integrated hospital and outpatient care.

Projected cost-effectiveness of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination of healthy infants and young children.

CONTEXT: Pneumococcal conjugate vaccine for infants has recently been found effective against meningitis, bacteremia, pneumonia, and otitis media. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the projected health and economic impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination of healthy US infants and young children. DESIGN: Cost-effectiveness analysis based on data from the Northern California Kaiser Permanente randomized trial and other published and unpublished sources. SETTING AND PATIENTS: A hypothetical US birth cohort of 3.8 million infants. INTERVENTIONS: Hypothetical comparisons of routine vaccination of healthy infants, requiring 4 doses of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (at 2, 4, 6, and 12-15 months), and catch-up vaccination of children aged 2 to 4.9 years requiring 1 dose, with children receiving no intervention. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cost per life-year saved and cost per episode of meningitis, bacteremia, pneumonia, and otitis media prevented. RESULTS: Vaccination of healthy infants would prevent more than 12000 cases of meningitis and bacteremia, 53000 cases of pneumonia, 1 million episodes of otitis media, and 116 deaths due to pneumococcal infection. Before accounting for vaccine costs, the vaccination program would save $342 million in medical and $415 million in work-loss and other costs from averted pneumococcal disease. Vaccination of healthy infants would result in net savings for society if the vaccine cost less than $46 per dose, and net savings for the health care payer if the vaccine cost less than $18 per dose. At the manufacturer's list price of $58 per dose, infant vaccination would cost society $80000 per life-year saved or $160 per otitis media episode prevented (other estimated costs would be $3200 per pneumonia case prevented, $15000 for bacteremia, and $280000 for meningitis). The cost-effectiveness of an additional program to administer 1 dose of vaccine to children aged 2 to 4.9 years would vary depending on the children's ages, relative risks of pneumococcal disease, and vaccine cost. CONCLUSIONS: Pneumococcal conjugate vaccination of healthy US infants has the potential to be cost-effective. To achieve cost savings, its cost would need to be lower than the manufacturer's list price. In addition to tangible costs, the vaccine should be appraised based on the less tangible value of preventing mortality and morbidity from pneumococcal disease.

Parents' preferences for outcomes associated with childhood vaccinations.

BACKGROUND: The number of shots in the childhood immunization schedule has been increasing and is likely to continue to increase in the coming years. Consideration of the psychologic costs of multiple injections, adverse events and vaccine-preventable disease is therefore growing in importance. METHODS: We assessed parent preferences, using both the time tradeoff (i.e. amount of parent time willing to trade) and willingness-to-pay (i.e. dollars willing to pay) metrics, for possible outcomes of vaccination among 206 parents of infants receiving care at Kaiser, Northern California Region. We also explored the relationship between preferences and subject characteristics. RESULTS: In general the amount of time subjects were willing to give up and the quantity of money they were willing to spend to avoid an outcome increased with the severity of the outcome. Preferences for our six main outcomes of interest all differed from one another (P < 0.0001, Tukey's multiple comparisons procedure). Rank correlation coefficients between time tradeoff and willingness-to-pay values for the six main outcomes ranged from 0.42 to 0.52 (all P < 0.004). Subject characteristics, including education, income, race/ethnicity and the child's birth order, did not explain the variation in parent preferences. CONCLUSIONS: In general subjects were willing to give up more money or time to avoid less desired outcomes. They were willing to give up only very small amounts of their own life expectancy or money to avoid minor, temporary outcomes (e.g. moderate fussiness, fever and pain) whereas they were willing to forego substantial lengths of their life or amounts of money to avoid a major, permanent outcome (i.e. permanent disability). Nonetheless much variation surfaced in the amount of time (or money) subjects were willing to trade to avoid outcomes. If this variation represents true differences in preferences, guideline developers must consider the role of individual parent preferences in decisions concerning vaccination.

Assessing costs and cost effectiveness of pneumococcal disease and vaccination within Kaiser Permanente.

OBJECTIVE: To review studies of the costs of pneumococcal disease and the cost effectiveness of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination conducted in association with the Kaiser Permanente Pneumococcal conjugate Efficacy Trial. RESULTS: for each birth cohort of 3.8 million infants, routine pneumococcal conjugate vaccination program for healthy infants would prevent more than 12000 (78% of potential) meningitis and bacteremia cases, 53000 (69% of potential) pneumonia cases, and 1 million (8% of potential) otitis media episodes. Before accounting for vaccine costs, the vaccination program would reduce the costs of pneumococcal disease by $342 million in medical and $415 million in work-loss and other costs. Vaccination of healthy infants would result in net savings for society if the vaccine cost less than $46 per dose, and net savings for the health care payer if the vaccine cost less than $18 per dose.

Rehospitalization for respiratory syncytial virus among premature infants.

OBJECTIVES: New interventions to prevent respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) have recently become available. Clinical decisions about the use of these interventions require a better understanding of the incidence of and risk factors for RSV. We sought to characterize the epidemiology of severe RSV disease among premature infants and to identify high-risk subgroups. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort. SETTING: Kaiser Permanente Northern California, July 1992 to April 1996. PARTICIPANTS: One thousand seven hundred twenty-one premature infants born at 23 to 36 weeks who were discharged from a neonatal intensive care nursery (NICU) within 12 months before the December to March RSV season. A secondary analysis included 769 infants discharged during the RSV season. OUTCOME MEASURES: Hospitalization for RSV. RESULTS: Of 1721 infants already home from the NICU at the start of the season, 3.2% were rehospitalized for RSV. In a multivariate model, risk factors for RSV hospitalization included gestation /=28 days of perinatal oxygen (OR, 3.7), and NICU discharge during September to November (OR, 2.7). Predicted risk of hospitalization varied by subgroup, ranging from 1.2% to 24.6%. Among 769 infants discharged from the NICU during the RSV season, 3.5% were rehospitalized for RSV during the same season; gestation and perinatal oxygen were not associated with admission. CONCLUSIONS: Most premature infants in this population were at less risk of severe RSV disease than previous studies in other populations have suggested. Preterm infants with a lower gestational age, a prolonged perinatal oxygen requirement, and NICU discharge within 3 months of the RSV season were most likely to require hospitalization for RSV disease. Cost-effectiveness analyses are needed to help define the role of available prophylactic interventions.

Cost-effectiveness of respiratory syncytial virus prophylaxis among preterm infants.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the costs and benefits of two new agents, respiratory syncytial virus immune globulin (RSVIG) and palivizumab, to prevent respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection among premature infants discharged from the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) before the start of the RSV season. Method. Decision analysis was used to compare the projected societal cost-effectiveness of three strategies-RSVIG, palivizumab, and no prophylaxis-among a hypothetical cohort of premature infants. Probabilities and costs of hospitalization were derived from a cohort of 1721 premature infants discharged from six Kaiser Permanente-Northern California NICUs. Efficacies of prophylaxis were based on published trials. Costs of prophylaxis were derived from published sources. Mortality among infants hospitalized for RSV was assumed to be 1.2%. Future benefits were discounted at 3%. RESULTS: Palivizumab was both more effective and less costly than RSVIG. Cost-effectiveness varied widely by subgroup. Palivizumab appeared most cost-effective for infants whose gestational age was /=28 days of oxygen in the NICU, and who were discharged from the NICU from September through November. In this subgroup, palivizumab was predicted to cost $12,000 per hospitalization averted (after taking into account savings from prevention of RSV admissions) or $33,000 per life-year saved, and the number needed to treat to avoid one hospitalization was estimated at 7.4. However, for all other subgroups, ratios ranged from $39,000 to $420,000 per hospitalization averted or $110,000 to $1,200,000 per life-year saved, and the number needed to treat extended from 15 to 152. The results were sensitive to varying assumptions about the cost and efficacy of prophylaxis, as well as the probability of hospitalization, but were less sensitive to the cost of hospitalization. CONCLUSION: In our model, the cost of prophylaxis against RSV for most subgroups of preterm infants was high relative to the benefits realized. Lower costs might permit the benefits of prophylaxis to be extended to additional groups of preterm infants.

Computer-based models to identify high-risk adults with asthma: is the glass half empty of half full?

This study developed and evaluated the performance of prediction models for asthma-related adverse outcomes based on the computerized hospital, clinic, and pharmacy utilization databases of a large health maintenance organization. Prediction models identified patients at three- to four-fold increased risk of hospitalization and emergency department visits, and were valid for test samples from the same population. A model that identified 19% of patients as high risk had a sensitivity of 49%, a specificity of 84%, and a positive predictive value of 19%. We conclude that prediction models that are based on computerized utilization data can identify adults with asthma at elevated risk, but may have limited sensitivity and specificity in actual populations.

The cost of medical care for patients with cystic fibrosis in a health maintenance organization.

BACKGROUND: Cystic fibrosis (CF) is the most common life-shortening genetic disorder among white individuals worldwide. Previous estimates of the costs of medical care have been based on expert opinion rather than observed costs. Accurate cost estimates are needed to enable evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of new interventions and prenatal genetic screening recommendations. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the cost of medical care for patients (N = 136) served by a health maintenance organization with a CF center. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of data from computerized cost databases and the Cystic Fibrosis Foundation annual survey. Severity of disease was classified based on the percent predicted forced expiratory volume at 1 second. RESULTS: The annual cost of medical care in 1996 averaged $13 300 and ranged from $6200 among patients with mild disease to $43 300 among patients with severe disease. Of total costs, 47% were from hospitalization, 18% were from DNase (Pulmozyme), 12% were from clinic visits, and 10% were from outpatient antibiotics. When the observed costs were used to estimate the costs of medical care for the entire population of CF patients in the United States, these costs were estimated to be $314 million per year in 1996 dollars. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that the cost of medical care for CF varies greatly with severity but is substantial even among patients with mild disease. These findings underscore the need for strategies to ensure good health insurance coverage and high quality care for all individuals with this condition.

Preventing neonatal group B streptococcal disease: cost-effectiveness in a health maintenance organization and the impact of delayed hospital discharge for newborns who received intrapartum antibiotics.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the cost and health benefits of implementing a risk factor-based prevention strategy for early-onset neonatal group B streptococcal (GBS) disease, using baseline assumptions and costs from a health maintenance organization. With the risk factor-based strategy, intrapartum antibiotics (IPAs) would be provided to women with fever, prolonged rupture of membranes, or preterm labor. A second objective was to determine the impact of an increased length of stay for well term infants with mothers who received IPAs. METHODS: We used decision analysis to compare the costs and benefits of the prevention strategy with usual obstetric practice for a cohort of 100 000 women and their newborn infants. We derived baseline values from a previous study based on chart review and automated cost data from a health maintenance organization in Northern California. In sensitivity analyses, we varied baseline assumptions, including additional costs for observing well term infants who received IPAs. RESULTS: If adherence to guidelines were 100%, 17% of mothers would receive IPAs at a cost of $490,000; $1.6 million would be saved by preventing 66 GBS cases (64% reduction). The net savings would be $1.1 million and 61 life-years. The net cost is sensitive to the cost of caring for well infants who received IPAs. If each term infant of a mother who received IPAs had 1 more day of observation than other term infants, there would be a net cost of $8.1 million; the cost per GBS case prevented would be $120,000 and the cost per life-year saved would be $130,000. CONCLUSIONS: Implementation in a health maintenance organization of a risk factor-based strategy to prevent neonatal GBS disease can prevent substantial disease and be cost saving. However, if the length of hospital stay were extended among well term infants whose mothers received IPAs, the strategy would be relatively costly compared with other medical interventions.

Clinical outcomes and maternal perceptions of an updated model of perinatal care.

BACKGROUND: Postpartum hospital stays seem likely to remain limited even under new laws which mandate that insurers cover 48-hour hospitalization after uncomplicated delivery. Clinicians, who are increasingly practicing in capitated arrangements, need better information to maximize clinical benefit to mothers and newborns using finite resources. OBJECTIVE AND INTERVENTIONS: This study's aim was to evaluate the clinical outcomes, patient perceptions, and costs of a revised model of perinatal care services. In this model, a new postpartum care center was established for routine follow-up of newborns within 48 hours after hospital discharge, educational efforts were shifted from the postpartum hospitalization to the prenatal period, and lactation consultant hours were increased. DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS: Controlled, nonrandomized (double cohort) study that compared mothers and newborns with hospital stays of 48 hours or less during the Baseline Care (preintervention) study period (N = 344) with those under the Revised Care (postintervention) study period (N = 456). SETTING: The Hayward, California, medical center of Kaiser Permanente, a nonprofit health maintenance organization. DATA COLLECTION: Telephone interviews were attempted with all mothers 3 weeks after delivery. Data on rehospitalizations, emergency department (ED) and clinic visits, and costs during the first 14 postpartum days were collected from computerized databases and chart review. OUTCOME MEASURES: The combined clinical outcome was defined as any undesirable health event, including rehospitalization, an ED visit, or an urgent clinic visit by either the mother or newborn within the first 14 days postpartum, or breastfeeding discontinuation within the first 21 days postpartum. Maternal satisfaction and costs were also studied. RESULTS: Of 876 attempted interviews, 800 were completed (91%). Analyses were adjusted for age, race, education, parity, breastfeeding experience, and other relevant variables. Among the interviewed mother-newborn pairs, 45% in the Revised Care group experienced the combined clinical outcome, compared with 52% in the Baseline Care group. Newborns in the Revised Care group (29%) were significantly less likely to make urgent clinic visits during the first 14 days of life than those in the Baseline Care group (36%). There were no differences between groups in newborn ED visits or rehospitalizations, maternal clinical outcomes, or breastfeeding continuation. Mothers in the Revised Care group expressed higher satisfaction with the newborn's care, the amount of information they received about newborn care and breastfeeding, and the amount of help they received with breastfeeding. Planned hospital care, planned follow-up visits, and unplanned care costs decreased by $149 per delivery, while the new prenatal class and increased lactation consultant services cost $58 per delivery, for an estimated overall reduction in cost. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that the revised model of perinatal care in this health maintenance organization medical center improved clinical outcomes and maternal satisfaction for low-risk mothers and newborns without increasing costs.