Life-threatening infections during treatment for acute lymphoblastic leukemia on the Malaysia-Singapore 2003 and 2010 clinical trials: A risk prediction model.

AIM: Life-threatening infections significantly impact the care of children undergoing therapy for acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) who are at risk of severe sepsis due to both host and treatment factors. Our aim was to develop a life-threatening infection risk prediction model that would allow remote rapid triage of patients to reduce time to first dose of antibiotics and sepsis-related mortality. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of 2068 fever episodes during ALL therapy was used for model building and subsequent internal validation. RESULTS: Three hundred and seventy-seven patients were treated for ALL in two institutions with comparable critical and supportive care resources. A total of 55 patients accounted for 71 admissions to the critical care unit for sepsis that led to eight septic deaths during a 16-year study period. A retrospective analysis of risk factors for sepsis enabled us to build a model focused on 13 variables that discriminated admissions requiring critical care well: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of .82; 95% CI .76-.87, p<.001, and Brier score of .033. Significant univariate predictors included neutropenia, presence of symptoms of abdominal pain, diarrhea, fever during induction or steroid-based phases, and the lack of any localizing source of infection at time of presentation. CONCLUSION: We have developed a risk prediction model that can reliably identify ALL patients undergoing treatment who are at a higher risk of life-threatening sepsis. Clinical applicability can potentially be extended to low-middle income settings, and its utility should be further studied in real-world settings.

Successful toxicity reduction during delayed intensification in the non-high-risk arm of Malaysia-Singapore Acute Lymphoblastic Leukaemia 2010 study.

In non-high-risk (non-HR) patients, the Malaysia-Singapore Acute Lymphoblastic Leukaemia 2003 (MS2003) study achieved good outcomes. However, its delayed-intensification (DI) phase, comprising repeated blocks of protocol III (2003-PIII), was toxic and caused significant treatment delays. The successor MS2010 study attempted to lower DI toxicity by replacing myelosuppressive drugs (doxorubicin, cytarabine) with vincristine and asparaginase. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We analysed 1748 admissions for fever in 315 Singapore children with non-HR acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) (MS2003, n = 183; MS2010, n = 132), comprising 76% of the total cohort (n = 413), to study the impact of these changes. RESULTS: The new 2010-PVa which has no doxorubicin, was associated with significantly fewer hospitalisations due to fever (0.08 versus 0.30 admissions per block [A/blk], p < 0.001), as than 2003-PIIIa. Similarly in 2010-PIIIb and PVb, where one block of cytarabine was replaced by two doses of vincristine, admissions for fever were also fewer (0.47 versus 0.74 A/blk, p < 0.001) than in 2003-PIIIb. However, the addition of single doses of vincristine and asparaginase in 2010-PIIIa, even with a mandatory seven-day rest, led to more hospitalisations (0.45 A/blk, p < 0.001), increased risk of bacteraemia (relative-risk (RR) = 7.66, p = 0.005) and critical-care admissions (RR = 4.31, p = 0.13). Despite this, overall treatment-related mortality decreased from 2.7% to 0.8%. Taken together, the reduced phase delays allowed earlier completion of the intensive phase of treatment (standard risk: 38.1 versus 49.4 weeks, p < 0.001; intermediate risk: 50.9 versus 58.8 weeks, p < 0.001), while maintaining excellent 10-year event-free survival of 95.4% and overall survival of 96.2%. CONCLUSIONS: In non-HR ALL, replacing doxorubicin/cytarabine with vincristine/asparaginase during some DI blocks is effective in reducing toxicity without compromising outcomes. CLINICAL TRIAL INFORMATION: NCT0289464.