Cost-effectiveness of integrated treatment for hepatitis C virus (HCV) among people who inject drugs in Norway: An economic evaluation of the INTRO-HCV trial.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The INTRO-HCV randomized controlled trial conducted in Norway over 2017-2019 found that integrated treatment, compared with standard-of-care hospital treatment, for hepatitis C virus (HCV) with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) improved treatment outcomes among people who inject drugs (PWID). We evaluated cost-effectiveness of the INTRO-HCV intervention. DESIGN: A Markov health state transition model of HCV disease progression and treatment with cost-effectiveness analysis from the health-provider perspective. Primary cost, utility, and health outcome data were derived from the trial. Costs and health benefits (quality-adjusted life-years, QALYs) were tracked over 50 years. Probabilistic and univariate sensitivity analyses investigated DAA price reductions and variations in HCV treatment and disease care cost assumptions, using costs from different countries (Norway, United Kingdom, United States, France, Australia). SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: PWID attending community-based drug treatment centers for people with opioid dependence in Norway. MEASUREMENTS: Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) in terms of cost per QALY gained, compared against a conventional (€70 000/QALY) willingness-to-pay threshold for Norway and lower (€20 000/QALY) threshold common among high-income countries. FINDINGS: Integrated treatment resulted in an ICER of €13 300/QALY gained, with 99% and 71% probability of being cost-effective against conventional and lower willingness-to-pay thresholds, respectively. A 30% lower DAA price reduced the ICER to €6 900/QALY gained, with 91% probability of being cost-effective at the lower willingness-to-pay threshold. A 60% and 90% lower DAA price had 36% and >99% probability of being cost-saving, respectively. Sensitivity analyses suggest integrated treatment was cost-effective at the lower willingness-to-pay threshold (>60% probability) across different assumptions on HCV treatment and disease care costs with 30% DAA price reduction, and became cost-saving with 60%-90% price reductions. CONCLUSIONS: Integrated hepatitis C virus treatment for people who inject drugs in community settings is likely cost-effective compared with standard-of-care referral pathways in Norway and may be cost-saving in settings with particular characteristics.

The Impact of Disease Control Measures on the Spread of COVID-19 in the Province of Sindh, Pakistan.

The province of Sindh reported the first COVID-19 case in Pakistan on 26th February 2020. The Government of Sindh has employed numerous control measures to limit its spread. However, for low-and middle-income countries such as Pakistan, the management protocols for controlling a pandemic are not always as definitive as they would be in other developed nations. Given the dire socio-economic conditions of Sindh, continuation of province-wise lockdowns may inadvertently cause a potential economic breakdown. By using a data driven SEIR modelling framework, this paper describes the evolution of the epidemic projections because of government control measures. The data from reported COVID-19 prevalence and google mobility is used to parameterize the model at different time points. These time points correspond to the government's call for advice on the prerequisite actions required to curtail the spread of COVID-19 in Sindh. Our model predicted the epidemic peak to occur by 18th June 2020 with approximately 3500 reported cases at that peak, this projection correlated with the actual recorded peak during the first wave of the disease in Sindh. The impact of the governmental control actions and religious ceremonies on the epidemic profile during this first wave of COVID-19 are clearly reflected in the model outcomes through variations in the epidemic peaks. We also report these variations by displaying the trajectory of the epidemics had the control measures been guided differently; the epidemic peak may have occurred as early as the end of May 2020 with approximately 5000 reported cases per day had there been no control measures and as late as August 2020 with only around 2000 cases at the peak had the lockdown continued, nearly flattening the epidemic curve.

Substance use and symptoms of mental health disorders: a prospective cohort of patients with severe substance use disorders in Norway.

BACKGROUND: There is high co-occurrence of substance use disorders (SUD) and mental health disorders. We aimed to assess impact of substance use patterns and sociodemographic factors on mental health distress using the ten-item Hopkins Symptom Checklist (SCL-10) over time. METHODS: Nested prospective cohort study of 707 participants with severe SUD across nine opioid-agonist-therapy outpatient clinics and low-threshold municipality clinics in Norway, during 2017-2020. Descriptive statistics were derived at baseline and reported by means and standard deviation (SD). A linear mixed model analysis was used to assess the impact of substance use patterns and sociodemographic factors on SCL-10 sum score with beta coefficients with 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: Mean (SD) SCL-10 score was 2.2 (0.8) at baseline with large variations across patients. We observed more symptoms of mental health disorders among people with frequent use of benzodiazepines (beta 3.6, CI:2.4;4.8), cannabis (1.3, CI:0.2;2.5), opioids (2.7, CI:1.1;4.2), and less symptoms among people using frequent stimulant use (- 2.7, CI:-4.1;-1.4) compared to no or less frequent use. Females (1.8, CI:0.7;3.0) and participants with debt worries (2.2, CI:1.1;3.3) and unstable living conditions (1.7, CI:0.0;3.3) had also higher burden of mental health symptoms. There were large individual variations in SCL-10 score from baseline to follow-up, but no consistent time trends indicating change over time for the whole group. 65% of the cohort had a mean score > 1.85, the standard reference score. CONCLUSIONS: People with SUD have a considerable burden of mental health symptoms. We found no association between substance use patterns and change in mental health symptoms over time. This could suggest that the differences observed were indicating flattening of effects or self-medication to a larger degree than medication-related decline in mental health. This call for better individualized mental health assessment and patient care.