Independent Predictors of Cardiac Mortality and Hospitalization for Heart Failure in a Multi-Ethnic Asian ST-segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction Population Treated by Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention.

We aimed to identify independent predictors of cardiac mortality and hospitalization for heart failure (HHF) from a real-world, multi-ethnic Asian registry [the Singapore Myocardial Infarction Registry] of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients treated by primary percutaneous coronary intervention. 11,546 eligible STEMI patients between 2008 and 2015 were identified. In-hospital, 30-day and 1-year cardiac mortality and 1-year HHF rates were 6.4%, 6.8%, 8.3% and 5.2%, respectively. From the derivation cohort (70% of patients), age, Killip class and cardiac arrest, creatinine, hemoglobin and troponin on admission and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) during hospitalization were predictors of in-hospital, 30-day and 1-year cardiac mortality. Previous ischemic heart disease (IHD) was a predictor of in-hospital and 30-day cardiac mortality only, whereas diabetes was a predictor of 1-year cardiac mortality only. Age, previous IHD and diabetes, Killip class, creatinine, hemoglobin and troponin on admission, symptom-to-balloon-time and LVEF were predictors of 1-year HHF. The c-statistics were 0.921, 0.901, 0.881, 0.869, respectively. Applying these models to the validation cohort (30% of patients) showed good fit and discrimination (c-statistic 0.922, 0.913, 0.903 and 0.855 respectively; misclassification rate 14.0%, 14.7%, 16.2% and 24.0% respectively). These predictors could be incorporated into specific risk scores to stratify reperfused STEMI patients by their risk level for targeted intervention.

Explaining left ventricular pressure dynamics in terms of LV passive and active elastances.

There has been much characterization of the heart as a pump by means of models based on elastance and compliance. The present paper puts forward the new concept of time-varying passive and active elastance. The biomechanical basis of cyclic elastances of the left ventricle (LV) is presented. Elastance is defined in terms of the relationship between ventricular pressure and volume as dP = EdV+ VdE, where E includes passive elastance, Ep, and active elastance, Ea. By incorporating this concept in LV models to simulate diastolic (filling) and systolic phases, a time-varying expression has been obtained for Ea, and an LV volume dependent expression has been obtained for Ep. It is proposed to use these two elastances Ea and Ep to represent the intrinsic LV properties. The active elastance, Ea, can be used to characterize the LV contractile state and represents LV pressure variation due to LV volume variation (such as during the filling and ejection phases). The passive elastance, Ep, can serve as a measure of LV resistance to filling. Furthermore, it has been demonstrated how the LV pressure dynamics (and LV pressure response to LV volume) can be explained in terms of Ea and Ep.

Left ventricular shape-based contractility index.

This study develops contractility indices in terms of the left ventricular (LV) ellipsoidal geometrical shape-factor. The contractility index (CONT1) is given by the maximum value dsigma(*)/dt wherein sigma(*)=sigma/P, sigma is the wall stress, and sigma(*) is expressed in terms of the shape factor S (the ratio of the minor axis and major axis, B/A, of the instantaneous LV ellipsoidal model). Another contractility index (CONT2) is also developed based on how far apart the in vivo S at the start of ejection is from its optimized value, CONT2=(S(se)-S(se)(op))/S(se)(op), where S(se) refers to the value of S at the start of ejection, S(se)(op) is the derived optimal value of S(se) for which sigma* is maximum. The values of S(=B/A) were calculated from cineventriculographically monitored LV volume, myocardial volume and wall-thickness. Then both the contractility indices were evaluated in normal subjects, as well as in patients with mild heart failure and in patients with severe heart failure. The normal values of CONT1 and CONT2 are 8.75+/-2.30s(-1) and 0.09+/-0.07, respectively. CONT1 decreased in patients with mild and severe heart failures to 5.78+/-1.30 and 3.90+/-1.30, respectively. CONT2 increased in patients with mild and severe heart failures to 0.11+/-0.09 and 0.23+/-0.12, respectively. This implies that a non-optimal and less ellipsoidal shape is associated with decreased contractility (and poor systolic function) of the LV. CONT1 and CONT2 are useful as non-invasively determinable quantitative indices of LV contractility, to distinguish between normal and pathologic LVs.

Passive and active ventricular elastances of the left ventricle.

BACKGROUND: Description of the heart as a pump has been dominated by models based on elastance and compliance. Here, we are presenting a somewhat new concept of time-varying passive and active elastance. The mathematical basis of time-varying elastance of the ventricle is presented. We have defined elastance in terms of the relationship between ventricular pressure and volume, as: dP = EdV + VdE, where E includes passive (Ep) and active (Ea) elastance. By incorporating this concept in left ventricular (LV) models to simulate filling and systolic phases, we have obtained the time-varying expression for Ea and the LV-volume dependent expression for Ep. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using the patient's catheterization-ventriculogram data, the values of passive and active elastance are computed. Ea is expressed as [formula: see text] Epis represented as: [formula: see text]. Ea is deemed to represent a measure of LV contractility. Hence, Peak dP/dt and ejection fraction (EF) are computed from the monitored data and used as the traditional measures of LV contractility. When our computed peak active elastance (Ea,max) is compared against these traditional indices by linear regression, a high degree of correlation is obtained. As regards Ep, it constitutes a volume-dependent stiffness property of the LV, and is deemed to represent resistance-to-filling. CONCLUSIONS: Passive and active ventricular elastance formulae can be evaluated from a single-beat P-V data by means of a simple-to-apply LV model. The active elastance (Ea) can be used to characterize the ventricle's contractile state, while passive elastance (Ep) can represent a measure of resistance-to-filling.

Systolic modeling of the left ventricle as a mechatronic system: determination of myocardial fiber's sarcomere contractile characteristics and new performance indices.

BACKGROUND: In this paper, the left ventricle (LV) is modeled as a cylinder with myocardial fibers located helically within its wall. A fiber is modeled into myocardial structural units (MSUs); the core entity of each MSU is the sarcomeric contractile element. The relationship between the sarcomere unit's contractile force and shortening velocity is expressed in terms of the LV model's wall stress and deformation, and hence in terms of the monitored LV pressure and volume. Then, the LV systolic performance is investigated in terms of a mechatronic (excitation-contraction) model of the sarcomere unit located within the LV cylindrical model wall. METHODS: The governing equation of dynamics of the LV myocardial structural unit (MSU) is developed, involving the parameters of the series-elastic element (SE), the viscous element (VE) and the contractile element (CE). We then relate the MSU's force and displacement variables (in terms of SE, VE and CE parameters) to the LV pressure and volume, using the patient's catheterization-ventriculogram data. We thereby evaluate the MSU elements' parameters. RESULTS: We then determine the sarcomere (CE) 'force vs. shortening-velocity' characteristics as well as the power generated by the sarcomere (or CE) element. These are deemed to be important LV functional indices. When our computed sarcomeric peak-power is compared against the traditional LV contractility indices (by linear regression), a high degree of correlation is obtained. CONCLUSIONS: We have provided herein, a LV systolic-phase (cylindrical geometry) model whose wall contains the myocardial fibers having sarcomere units. We have expressed the LV myocardial sarcomere's CE (force vs. shortening-velocity) characteristics in terms of the LV pressure-volume data. These CE properties express the intrinsic performance capacity of the LV. Hence, indices containing these properties are deemed to reflect LV performance. In this regard, our new LV contractility index correlates very well with the traditional LV contractility index dP/dt(max).