Long-term prognostic benefit of adjuvant chemotherapy for patients with hepatoid adenocarcinoma of the stomach after radical resection: A national multicenter study.

BACKGROUND: There is no consensus on whether adjuvant chemotherapy (AC) is effective for hepatoid adenocarcinoma of the stomach (HAS). The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between AC and the long-term prognosis of patients with HAS. METHODS: The clinicopathological data of 239 patients with primary HAS who underwent radical surgery from April 1, 2004 to December 31, 2019 in 14 centers in China were retrospectively analyzed. Patients were divided into the AC group (127 patients) and the nonadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) group (112 patients). RESULTS: Kaplan‒Meier (KM) analysis showed that there were no significant differences in the 1-year3-year overall survival rate (OS) and 1-year, 3-year recurrence-free survival rate (RFS) between the AC group and the NAC group (1-year OS: 85.6% vs. 79.8%, 3-year OS: 59.8% vs. 62.4%, 1-year RFS: 69.8% vs. 74.4%, 3-year RFS: 57.2% vs. 55.9%, all P > 0.05). The subpopulation treatment effect pattern plots (STEPP) did not show treatment heterogeneity of AC in patients with HAS. The proportions of local recurrence and metastasis sites in the two groups were similar. Although the smoothed hazard curves of the NAC and AC groups crossed, the peak hazard time was later in the AC group (5.9 and 4.7 months), and the peak hazard rate was lower (0.032 and 0.038, P = 0.987). CONCLUSION: The current AC regimen may not significantly improve the survival of patients with HAS after radical surgery.

Nomogram to Predict Recurrence and Guide a Pragmatic Surveillance Strategy After Resection of Hepatoid Adenocarcinoma of the Stomach: A Retrospective Multicenter Study.

BACKGROUND: An accurate recurrence risk assessment system and surveillance strategy for hepatoid adenocarcinoma of the stomach (HAS) remain poorly defined. This study aimed to develop a nomogram to predict postoperative recurrence of HAS and guide individually tailored surveillance strategies. METHODS: The study enrolled all patients with primary HAS who had undergone curative-intent resection at 14 institutions from 2004 to 2019. Clinicopathologic variables with statistical significance in the multivariate Cox regression were incorporated into a nomogram to build a recurrence predictive model. RESULTS: The nomogram of recurrence-free survival (RFS) based on independent prognostic factors, including age, preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen, number of examined lymph nodes, perineural invasion, and lymph node ratio, achieved a C-index of 0.723 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.674-0.772) in the whole cohort, which was significantly higher than those of the eighth American Joint Committed on Cancer (AJCC) staging system (C-index, 0.629; 95% CI, 0.573-0.685; P < 0.001). The nomogram accurately stratified patients into low-, middle-, and high-risk groups of postoperative recurrence. The postoperative recurrence risk rates for patients in the middle- and high-risk groups were respectively 3 and 10 times higher than for the low-risk group. The patients in the middle- and high-risk groups showed more recurrence and metastasis, particularly multiple site metastasis, within 36 months after the operation than those in the low-risk group (low, 2.2%; middle, 8.6%; high, 24.0%; P = 0.003). CONCLUSIONS: The nomogram achieved good prediction of postoperative recurrence for the patients with HAS after radical resection. For the middle- and high-risk patients, more active surveillance and targeted examination methods should be adopted within 36 months after the operation, particularly for liver and multiple metastases.

Assessment of Clinicopathological Characteristics and Development of an Individualized Prognostic Model for Patients With Hepatoid Adenocarcinoma of the Stomach.

Importance: Few studies have examined the clinicopathological characteristics and prognoses of patients with hepatoid adenocarcinoma of the stomach (HAS). Objective: To explore the clinicopathological characteristics and prognoses of patients with HAS and develop a nomogram to predict overall survival (OS). Design, Setting, and Participants: This prognostic study involved a retrospective analysis of data from 315 patients who received a diagnosis of primary HAS between April 1, 2004, and December 31, 2019, at 14 centers in China. Main Outcomes and Measures: OS and prognostic factors. Patients were randomly assigned to a derivation cohort (n = 220) and a validation cohort (n = 95). A nomogram was developed based on independent prognostic factors identified through a multivariable Cox mixed-effects model. Results: Among 315 patients with HAS (mean [SD] age, 61.9 [10.2] years; 240 men [76.2%]), 137 patients had simple HAS (defined as the presence of histologically contained hepatoid differentiation areas only), and 178 patients had mixed HAS (defined as the presence of hepatoid differentiation areas plus common adenocarcinoma areas). Patients with simple HAS had a higher median preoperative α-fetoprotein level than those with mixed HAS (195.9 ng/mL vs 48.9 ng/mL, respectively; P < .001) and a higher rate of preoperative liver metastasis (23 of 137 patients [16.8%] vs 11 of 178 patients [6.2%]; P = .003). The 3-year OS rates of patients with simple vs mixed HAS were comparable (56.0% vs 60.0%; log-rank P = .98). A multivariable Cox analysis of the derivation cohort found that the presence of perineural invasion (hazard ratio [HR], 2.13; 95% CI, 1.27-3.55; P = .009), preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen levels of 5 ng/mL or greater (HR, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.08-2.74; P = .03), and pathological node category 3b (HR, 3.72; 95% CI, 1.34-10.32; P = .01) were independent risk factors for worse OS. Based on these factors, a nomogram to predict postoperative OS was developed. The concordance indices of the nomogram (derivation cohort: 0.72 [95% CI, 0.66-0.78]; validation cohort: 0.72 [95% CI, 0.63-0.81]; whole cohort: 0.71 [95% CI, 0.66-0.76]) were higher than those derived using the American Joint Committee on Cancer's AJCC Cancer Staging Manual (8th edition) pathological tumor-node-metastasis (pTNM) staging system (derivation cohort: 0.63 [95% CI, 0.57-0.69]; validation cohort: 0.65 [95% CI, 0.56-0.75]; whole cohort: 0.64 [95% CI, 0.59-0.69]) and those derived using a clinical model that included pTNM stage and receipt of adjuvant chemotherapy (derivation cohort: 0.64 [95% CI, 0.58-0.69]; validation cohort: 0.65 [95% CI, 0.56-0.75]; whole cohort: 0.64 [95% CI, 0.59-0.69]). Based on the nomogram cutoff of 10 points, the whole cohort was divided into high-risk and low-risk groups. The 3-year OS rate of patients in the high-risk group was significantly lower than that of patients in the low-risk group (29.7% vs 75.9%, respectively; log-rank P < .001), and the 3-year prognosis of high-risk and low-risk groups could be further distinguished into pTNM stage I to II (33.3% vs 80.2%; exact log-rank P = .15), stage III (34.3% vs 71.3%; log-rank P < .001), and stage IV (15.5% vs 70.3%; log-rank P = .009). Conclusions and Relevance: This study found that perineural invasion, preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen levels of 5 ng/mL or greater, and pathological node category 3b were independent risk factors associated with worse OS. An individualized nomogram was developed to predict OS among patients with HAS. This nomogram had good prognostic value and may be useful as a supplement to the current American Joint Committee on Cancer TNM staging system.

Conditional survival and recurrence of remnant gastric cancer after surgical resection: A multi-institutional study.

The present study was designed to evaluate the dynamic survival and recurrence of remnant gastric cancer (RGC) after radical resection and to provide a reference for the development of personalized follow-up strategies. A total of 298 patients were analyzed for their 3-year conditional overall survival (COS3), 3-year conditional disease-specific survival (CDSS3), corresponding recurrence and pattern changes, and associated risk factors. The 5-year overall survival (OS) and the 5-year disease-specific survival (DSS) of the entire cohort were 41.2% and 45.8%, respectively. The COS3 and CDDS3 of RGC patients who survived for 5 years were 84.0% and 89.8%, respectively. The conditional survival in patients with unfavorable prognostic characteristics showed greater growth over time than in those with favorable prognostic characteristics (eg, COS3, ≥T3: 46.4%-83.0%, Δ36.6% vs ≤T2: 82.4%-85.7%, Δ3.3%; P < 0.001). Most recurrences (93.5%) occurred in the first 3 years after surgery. The American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage was the only factor that affected recurrence. Time-dependent Cox regression showed that for both OS and DSS, after 4 years of survival, the common prognostic factors that were initially judged lost their ability to predict survival (P > 0.05). Time-dependent logistic regression analysis showed that the AJCC stage independently affected recurrence within 2 years after surgery (P < 0.05). A postoperative follow-up model was developed for RGC patients. In conclusion, patients with RGC usually have a high likelihood of death or recurrence within 3 years after radical surgery. We developed a postoperative follow-up model for RGC patients of different stages, which may affect the design of future clinical trials.

Development and External Validation of Web-Based Models to Predict the Prognosis of Remnant Gastric Cancer after Surgery: A Multicenter Study.

BACKGROUND: Remnant gastric cancer (RGC) is a rare malignant tumor with poor prognosis. There is no universally accepted prognostic model for RGC. METHODS: We analyzed data for 253 RGC patients who underwent radical gastrectomy from 6 centers. The prognosis prediction performances of the AJCC7th and AJCC8th TNM staging systems and the TRM staging system for RGC patients were evaluated. Web-based prediction models based on independent prognostic factors were developed to predict the survival of the RGC patients. External validation was performed using a cohort of 49 Chinese patients. RESULTS: The predictive abilities of the AJCC8th and TRM staging systems were no better than those of the AJCC7th staging system (c-index: AJCC7th vs. AJCC8th vs. TRM, 0.743 vs. 0.732 vs. 0.744; P>0.05). Within each staging system, the survival of the two adjacent stages was not well discriminated (P>0.05). Multivariate analysis showed that age, tumor size, T stage, and N stage were independent prognostic factors. Based on the above variables, we developed 3 web-based prediction models, which were superior to the AJCC7th staging system in their discriminatory ability (c-index), predictive homogeneity (likelihood ratio chi-square), predictive accuracy (AIC, BIC), and model stability (time-dependent ROC curves). External validation showed predictable accuracies of 0.780, 0.822, and 0.700, respectively, in predicting overall survival, disease-specific survival, and disease-free survival. CONCLUSIONS: The AJCC TNM staging system and the TRM staging system did not enable good distinction among the RGC patients. We have developed and validated visual web-based prediction models that are superior to these staging systems.