Repeated Measurement of the Novel Atrial Biomarker BMP10 (Bone Morphogenetic Protein 10) Refines Risk Stratification in Anticoagulated Patients With Atrial Fibrillation: Insights From the ARISTOTLE Trial.

BACKGROUND: BMP10 (bone morphogenic protein 10) has emerged as a novel biomarker associated with the risk of ischemic stroke and other outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). The study aimed to determine if repeated BMP10 measurements improve prognostication of cardiovascular events in patients with AF. METHODS AND RESULTS: BMP10 was measured using a prototype Elecsys immunoassay in plasma samples collected at randomization and after 2 months in patients with AF randomized to apixaban or warfarin in the ARISTOTLE (Apixaban for Reduction in Stroke and Other Thromboembolic Events in Atrial Fibrillation) trial (n=2878). Adjusted Cox-regression models were used to evaluate the association between 2-month BMP10 levels and outcomes. BMP10 levels increased by 7.8% (P<0.001) over 2 months. The baseline variables most strongly associated with BMP10 levels at 2 months were baseline BMP10 levels, body mass index, sex, age, creatinine, diabetes, warfarin treatment, and AF-rhythm. During median 1.8 years follow-up, 34 ischemic strokes/systemic embolism, 155 deaths, and 99 heart failure hospitalizations occurred. Comparing the third with the first sample quartile, higher BMP10 levels at 2 months were associated with higher risk of ischemic stroke (hazard ratio [HR], 1.33 [95% CI, 0.67-2.63], P=0.037), heart failure (HR, 1.91 [95% CI, 1.17-3.12], P=0.012) and all-cause death (HR, 1.61 [95% CI, 1.17-2.21], P<0.001). Adding BMP10 levels at 2 months on top of established risk factors and baseline BMP10 levels improved the C-indices for ischemic stroke/systemic embolism (from 0.73 to 0.75), heart failure hospitalization (0.76-0.77), and all-cause mortality (0.70-0.72), all P<0.05. CONCLUSIONS: Elevated levels of BMP10 at 2 months strengthened the associations with the risk of ischemic stroke, hospitalization for heart failure, and all-cause mortality. Repeated measurements of BMP10 may further refine risk stratification in patients with AF.

Temporal biomarker concentration patterns during the early course of acute coronary syndrome.

OBJECTIVES: Biomarker concentrations and their changes during acute coronary syndrome (ACS) provide clinically useful information on pathophysiological processes, e.g. myocardial necrosis, hemodynamic stress and inflammation. However, current evidence on temporal biomarker patterns early during ACS is limited, and studies investigating multiple biomarkers are lacking. METHODS: We measured concentrations of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) and I (hs-cTnI), NT-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, C-reactive protein, and growth-differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15) in plasma samples obtained at randomization in ACS patients from the PLATelet inhibition and patient Outcomes (PLATO) trial. Linear regressions with interaction analyses were used to investigate the associations of biomarker concentrations with the time from symptom onset and to model temporal biomarker concentration patterns. RESULTS: The study population consisted of 16,944 patients (median age 62 years; 71.3 % males) with 6,853 (40.3 %) having ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and 10,141 (59.7 %) having non-ST-elevation ACS (NSTE-ACS). Concentrations of all biomarkers were associated with time from symptom onset (pinteraction<0.001), apart for GDF-15 (pinteraction=0.092). Concentration increases were more pronounced in STEMI compared to NSTE-ACS. Temporal biomarker patterns for hs-cTnT and hs-cTnI were different depending on sex whereas biomarker patterns for the other biomarkers were similar in cohorts defined by age and sex. CONCLUSIONS: Temporal concentration patterns differ for various biomarkers early during ACS, reflecting the variability in the activation and duration of different pathophysiological processes, and the amount of injured myocardium. Our data emphasize that the time elapsed from symptom onset should be considered for the interpretation of biomarker results in ACS.

Validation of a web-based self-administered test for cognitive assessment in a Swedish geriatric setting.

Computerized cognitive tests have the potential to cost-effectively detect and monitor cognitive impairments and thereby facilitate treatment for these conditions. However, relatively few of these tests have been validated in a variety of populations. Brain on Track, a self-administered web-based test, has previously been shown to have a good ability to differentiate between healthy individuals and patients with cognitive impairment in Portuguese populations. The objective of this study was to validate the differential ability and evaluate the usability of Brain on Track in a Swedish memory clinic setting. Brain on Track was administered to 30 patients with mild cognitive impairment/mild dementia and 30 healthy controls, all scheduled to perform the test from home after one week and after three months. To evaluate the usability, the patient group was interviewed after completion of the testing phase. Patients scored lower than healthy controls at both the first (median score 42.4 vs 54.1, p<0.001) and the second test (median score 42.3 vs 55.0, p<0.001). The test-retest intra-class correlation was 0.87. A multiple logistic regression model accounting for effects of age, gender and education rendered an ability of Brain on Track to differentiate between the groups with an area under the receiver operation characteristics curve of 0.90 for the first and 0.88 for the second test. In the subjective evaluation, nine patients left positive comments, nine were negative whereas five left mixed comments regarding the test experience. Sixty percent of patients had received help from relatives to log on to the platform. In conclusion, Brain on Track performed well in differentiating healthy controls from patients with cognitive impairment and showed a high test-retest reliability, on par with results from previous studies. However, the substantial proportion of patients needing help to log in could to some extent limit an independent use of the platform.

Regional assessment of availability for transcatheter aortic valve implantation in Sweden: a long-term observational study.

BACKGROUND: Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) is an increasingly important treatment option for patients with severe aortic stenosis. Its best implementation is debated, as few centres with high volumes are associated with better outcomes, while centralisation might lead to an inferior availability of treatment for patients living far away. The aim of this study was to investigate the implementation of TAVI in Sweden with a focus on regional differences in terms of availability, short-term mortality and waiting times. METHODS: All patients undergoing TAVI between 2008 and 2020 from the Swedish Transcatheter Cardiac Intervention Registry (SWENTRY) were included. SWENTRY was linked to the National Cause of Death Registry and to publicly available geospatial data from Statistics Sweden. RESULTS: A total of 7280 patients were included. Over time, TAVI interventions increased markedly, while surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) remained constant. There were no statistically significant regional differences in incidence between counties with or without a local TAVI centre (p = 0.7) and no clustering tendencies around regions with a local TAVI centre (p = 0.99). Thirty-day mortality improved over time without evidence of regional differences. No regional differences in waiting time from decision to intervention were found for TAVI centre regions and non-TAVI centre regions (p = 0.7). CONCLUSION: This nationwide study indicated no regional differences in terms of availability, short-term mortality or waiting times. An organisation with a few specialised centres was found to be sufficient to provide national coverage of TAVI interventions.

Plasma angiopoietin-2 and its association with heart failure in patients with atrial fibrillation.

AIMS: Several biomarkers are associated with clinical outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), but a causal relationship has not been established. This study aimed to evaluate angiopoietin-2, a novel candidate biomarker of endothelial inflammation and vascular remodelling, in patients with AF. METHODS AND RESULTS: Angiopoietin-2 was measured in plasma obtained from patients with AF treated with aspirin monotherapy (exploration cohort, n = 2987) or with oral anticoagulation (validation cohort, n = 13 079). Regression models were built to assess the associations between angiopoietin-2, clinical characteristics, and outcomes. In both cohorts, plasma angiopoietin-2 was independently associated with AF on the baseline electrocardiogram and persistent/permanent AF, age, history of heart failure, female sex, tobacco use/smoking, body mass index, renal dysfunction, diabetes, and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP). Angiopoietin-2 was independently associated with subsequent hospitalization for heart failure after adjusting for age, creatinine, and clinical characteristics in the exploration cohort [c-index 0.79, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.75-0.82; third vs. first quartile, hazard ratio (HR) 1.74, 95% CI 1.26-2.41] and in the validation cohort (c-index 0.76, 95% CI 0.74-0.78; HR 1.58, 95% CI 1.37-1.82). In both cohorts, the association persisted when also adjusting for NT-proBNP (P ≤ 0.001). In full multivariable models also adjusted for NT-proBNP, angiopoietin-2 did not show statistically significant associations with ischaemic stroke, cardiovascular and all-cause death, or major bleeding that were consistent across the two cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with AF, plasma levels of angiopoietin-2 were independently associated with subsequent hospitalization for heart failure and provided incremental prognostic value to clinical risk factors and NT-proBNP.

Plasma Neurofilament Light Chain Is Elevated after Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation.

INTRODUCTION: Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) is associated with a high incidence of new silent brain infarcts (SBIs) on postprocedural neuroimaging. A venous blood sample reflecting neuronal damage following TAVI could help identify patients with potential SBIs. We aimed to investigate if a biochemical marker of neuronal injury, neurofilament light chain (NFL), is elevated after TAVI. METHODS: In this observational study, NFL was measured in plasma from 31 patients before and after TAVI. Multivariable regression analysis was performed to investigate any effect of clinical- and procedure-related factors on differences in NFL levels before and after TAVI. RESULTS: Samples were collected 41 (14-81) days before and 44 (35-59) days after TAVI, median (interquartile range). Median age was 81 (77-84) years, and 35% were female. No patient had any overt procedure-related neurological complications. The geometric mean (95% confidence interval) of the NFL concentration was 30 (25-36) pg/mL before TAVI and 48 (39-61) pg/mL, after TAVI, p <0.001. None of the included variables in the multiple linear regression model were statistically significantly associated with the difference in levels before and after TAVI. CONCLUSIONS: NFL levels in plasma were higher after TAVI as compared with levels before, with a mean increase of 60% (18 pg/mL). Further studies including neuroimaging and cognitive outcomes are needed to understand the potential value of measuring NFL in relation to TAVI.

Fully independent external validation of the Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement 30-day (TAVR-30) hospital readmission model.

BACKGROUND: Early and late readmissions after Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement (TAVR) are common and associated with worse outcome. A risk prediction model (TAVR-30) was recently developed using readily available clinical variables to identify patients at risk for hospital readmission within 30 days after TAVR. We performed an independent external validation of the TAVR-30 model. METHODS: The Swedish TAVR-registry, linked together with other mandatory national registries was used to identify all TAVR procedures, variables from the original model, hospitalizations and deaths between the years 2008 to 2021. RESULTS: A total of 8459 patients underwent TAVR, 7693 patients had complete data and were included in the analysis. Out of these, 928 patients experienced a readmission within 30 days. Using the estimates from the original model, a concordance (c)-index of 0.51, a calibration slope of 0.07 and intercept of -0.62 were obtained respectively, overall implying poor model performance. CONCLUSIONS: This independent external validation indicates poor performance of the TAVR-30 model in a Swedish setting. Further research is needed to develop more reliable tools for predicting the risk of early hospital readmission after TAVR, as well as, for providing a deeper understanding of how to develop risk models that performs well in patients with multiple underlying comorbidities.

Individual net clinical outcome with oral anticoagulation in atrial fibrillation using the ABC-AF risk scores.

BACKGROUND: Decisions on stroke prevention strategies in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) depend on the perceived risks of stroke and bleeding with different antithrombotic treatment strategies. The study objectives were to evaluate net clinical outcome with oral anticoagulation (OAC) for the individual patient with AF and to identify clinically relevant thresholds for OAC treatment. METHODS: Patients with AF receiving OAC treatment in the randomized ARISTOTLE and RE-LY trials, with available biomarkers for calculation of ABC-AF scores at baseline, were included (n = 23,121). Observed 1-year risk on OAC was compared with predicted 1-year risk if the same patients would not have received OAC using the ABC-AF scores calibrated for aspirin. Net clinical outcome was defined as the sum of stroke and major bleeding risks. RESULTS: The ratio between the 1-year incidence of major bleeding and stroke/systemic embolism events ranged from 1.4 to 10.6 according to different ABC-AF risk profiles. Net clinical outcome analyses showed that in patients with an ABC-AF-stroke risk >1% per year on OAC (>3% without OAC), treatment with OAC consistently provides larger net clinical benefit than no-OAC treatment. In patients with an ABC-AF-stroke risk <1.0% per year on OAC (<3% without OAC) an individualized balancing of risks regarding OAC or no-OAC treatment is needed. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with AF, the ABC-AF risk scores allow an individual and continuous estimate of the balance between benefits and risks with OAC treatment. This precision medicine tool therefore seems useful as decision support and visualizes the net clinical benefit or harm with OAC treatment (http://www.abc-score.com/abcaf/). CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT00412984 (ARISTOTLE) and NCT00262600 (RE-LY).

Biomarker Concentrations and Their Temporal Changes in Patients With Myocardial Infarction and Nonobstructive Compared With Obstructive Coronary Arteries: Results From the PLATO Trial.

Background The pathobiology of myocardial infarction (MI) with nonobstructive coronary arteries (MINOCA) is often uncertain. Investigating biomarker concentrations and their changes may offer novel pathophysiological insights. Methods and Results In this post hoc study of the PLATO (Platelet Inhibition and Patient Outcomes) trial, concentrations of hs-cTnT (high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T), NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide), hs-CRP (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein), and GDF-15 (growth differentiation factor 15) were measured in patients with MINOCA at baseline (n=554) and at 1-month follow-up (n=107). For comparisons, biomarkers were also measured in patients with MI with obstructive (stenosis ≥50%) coronary artery disease (baseline: n=11 106; follow-up: n=2755]). Adjusted linear regression models were used to compare concentrations and their short- and long-term changes. The adjusted geometric mean ratios (GMRs) in patients with MINOCA (median age, 61 years; 50.4% women) indicated lower hs-cTnT (GMR, 0.77 [95% CI, 0.68-0.88]) but higher hs-CRP (GMR, 1.21 [95% CI, 1.08-1.37]) and GDF-15 concentrations (GMR, 1.06 [95% CI, 1.02-1.11]) at baseline compared with patients with MI with obstructive coronary artery disease, whereas NT-proBNP concentrations were similar. Temporal decreases in hs-cTnT, NT-proBNP, and hs-CRP concentrations until 1-month follow-up were more pronounced in patients with MINOCA. At follow-up, patients with MINOCA had lower concentrations of hs-cTnT (GMR, 0.71 [95% CI, 0.60-0.84]), NT-proBNP (GMR, 0.45 [95% CI, 0.36-0.56]), and hs-CRP (GMR, 0.68 [95% CI, 0.53-0.86]). One-month GDF-15 concentrations were similar between both groups with MI. Conclusions Biomarker concentrations suggest greater initial inflammatory activity, similar degree of myocardial dysfunction, and less pronounced myocardial injury during the acute phase of MINOCA compared with MI with obstructive coronary artery disease but also faster myocardial recovery. Registration URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT00391872.

Bone morphogenetic protein 10: a novel risk marker of ischaemic stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation.

AIMS: Biomarkers specifically related to atrial tissue may increase the understanding of the pathophysiology of atrial fibrillation (AF) and further improve risk prediction in this setting. Bone morphogenetic protein 10 (BMP10) is a protein expressed in the atrial myocardium. We evaluated the association between BMP10 and the risk of ischaemic stroke and other cardiovascular events in large cohorts of patients with AF, treated with and without oral anticoagulation (OAC). METHODS AND RESULTS: BMP10 was measured in plasma samples collected at randomisation in patients with AF without OAC in the ACTIVE A and AVERROES trials (n = 2974), and with OAC in the ARISTOTLE trial (n = 13 079). BMP10 was analysed with a prototype Elecsys immunoassay. Associations with outcomes were evaluated by Cox-regression models adjusted for clinical characteristics, kidney function, and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP). Median concentrations of BMP10 were 2.47 and 2.44 ng/mL, in the non-OAC and OAC cohort, respectively. Increasing BMP10 was associated with lower body mass index, older age, female sex, kidney dysfunction, and AF rhythm. BMP10 was consistently associated with ischaemic stroke. In the non-OAC cohort, BMP10 increased the concordance index of the multivariable model from 0.713 to 0.733 (P = 0.004) and in the OAC cohort from 0.673 to 0.694 (P < 0.001). Additionally, BMP10 maintained a significant prognostic value after additionally adjusting for NT-proBNP. BMP10 was not independently associated with bleeding or with death. CONCLUSION: The novel atrial biomarker BMP10 was independently associated with ischaemic stroke in patients with AF irrespective of OAC treatment. BMP10 seems to be more specifically related to the risk of ischaemic stroke in AF. ONE-SENTENCE SUMMARY: In this study, BMP10 may be a novel specific biomarker of ischaemic stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation, irrespective of oral anticoagulation.

Biomarker-Based Prediction of Recurrent Ischemic Events in Patients With Acute Coronary Syndromes.

BACKGROUND: In patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS), there is residual and variable risk of recurrent ischemic events. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to develop biomarker-based prediction models for 1-year risk of cardiovascular (CV) death and myocardial infarction (MI) in patients with ACS undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention. METHODS: We included 10,713 patients from the PLATO (A Comparison of Ticagrelor [AZD6140] and Clopidogrel in Patients With Acute Coronary Syndrome) trial in the development cohort and externally validated in 3,508 patients from the TRACER (Thrombin Receptor Antagonist for Clinical Event Reduction in Acute Coronary Syndrome) trial. Variables contributing to risk of CV death/MI were assessed using Cox regression models, and a score was derived using subsets of variables approximating the full model. RESULTS: There were 632 and 190 episodes of CV death/MI in the development and validation cohorts. The most important predictors of CV death/MI were the biomarkers, growth differentiation factor 15, and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, which had greater prognostic value than all candidate variables. The final model included 8 items: age (A), biomarkers (B) (growth differentiation factor 15 and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide), and clinical variables (C) (extent of coronary artery disease, previous vascular disease, Killip class, ACS type, P2Y12 inhibitor). The model, named ABC-ACS ischemia, was well calibrated and showed good discriminatory ability for 1-year risk of CV death/MI with C-indices of 0.71 and 0.72 in the development and validation cohorts, respectively. For CV death, the score performed better, with C-indices of 0.80 and 0.84 in the development and validation cohorts, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: An 8-item score for the prediction of CV death/MI was developed and validated for patients with ACS undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention. The ABC-ACS ischemia score showed good calibration and discrimination and might be useful for risk prediction and decision support in patients with ACS. (A Comparison of Ticagrelor [AZD6140] and Clopidogrel in Patients With Acute Coronary Syndrome [PLATO]; NCT00391872; Trial to Assess the Effects of Vorapaxar [SCH 530348; MK-5348] in Preventing Heart Attack and Stroke in Participants With Acute Coronary Syndrome [TRACER]; NCT00527943).

Association of GDF-15, hs-cTnT and NT-proBNP with coronary artery disease in patients undergoing elective angiography.

Aim: This study investigated the association between plasma levels of GDF-15, hs-cTnT and NT-proBNP and the presence of coronary artery disease (CAD) in stable patients referred for elective coronary angiography. Methods: The outcome of CAD was defined as an ordinal variable with 3 levels. The association between each biomarker and the outcome was tested using the Winell and Lindbäck method. Results: In unadjusted analysis of 252 patients, GDF-15 and hs-cTnT were associated with the presence and extent of CAD. In multivariate regression analysis including traditional risk factors, this association was no longer significant. Conclusion: NT-proBNP, GDF-15 and hs-cTnT plasma levels do not seem to improve the predictive ability of traditional risk factors for CAD in stable patients referred for coronary angiography.

This study aimed to look at a possible association between blood levels of three molecules (GDF-15, hs-cTnT and N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide [NT-proBNP]) and the presence of coronary artery disease (CAD) in stable patients referred for coronary angiography. Three CAD degrees of severity were identified: no CAD, 1- or 2-vessel CAD and 3-vessel or left main CAD. The association between each of the three blood molecules and CAD was studied using a specific statistical method. In the 252 consecutive patients enrolled, the two molecules GDF-15 and hs-cTnT were significantly associated with the presence and extent of CAD, while NT-proBNP was not. However, when the statistical analysis was adjusted for the traditional risk factors of CAD (age, gender, smoking, diabetes, etc.), the association of GDF-15 and hs-cTnT with CAD was no longer significant. NT-proBNP, GDF-15 and hs-cTnT blood levels do not seem to be independent predictive tools for CAD in stable patients referred for coronary angiography.

Biomarkers and heart failure events in patients with atrial fibrillation in the ARISTOTLE trial evaluated by a multi-state model.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) and heart failure (HF) often coexist. We investigated the prognostic impact of biomarkers on the development of HF and death in patients with AF and different left ventricular systolic function considering the influence of competing events. METHODS: The study included 11,818 patients with AF from the ARISTOTLE trial who at entry had information on history of HF, an estimate of left ventricular function and plasma samples for determination of biomarkers representing cardiorenal dysfunction (NT-proBNP, troponin T, cystatin C) and inflammation (GDF-15, IL-6, CRP). Patients were categorized into: (I) HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF, n = 2,048), (II) HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF, n = 2,520), and (III) No HF (n = 7,250). Biomarker associations with HF hospitalization and death were analyzed using a multi-state model accounting also for repeated events. RESULTS: Baseline levels of NT-proBNP, troponin T, cystatin C, GDF-15, IL-6, and CRP were highest in HFrEF and lowest in No HF. During median 1.9 years follow-up, 546 patients were hospitalized at least once for HF and 819 died. Higher levels of all investigated biomarkers were associated with both outcomes (all P< .0001), with highest event rates in HFrEF and lowest in No HF. The associations remained after adjustments and were more pronounced for first than for recurrent events. CONCLUSIONS: In anticoagulated patients with AF, biomarkers indicating cardiorenal dysfunction and inflammation improve the identification of patients at risk of developing HF or worsening of already existing HF. These biomarkers might be useful for targeting novel HF therapies in patients with AF.

Using multimarker screening to identify biomarkers associated with cardiovascular death in patients with atrial fibrillation.

AIMS: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with higher mortality. Biomarkers may improve the understanding of key pathophysiologic processes in AF that lead to death. Using a new multiplex analytic technique, we explored the association between 268 biomarkers and cardiovascular (CV) death in anticoagulated patients with AF. METHODS AND RESULTS: A case-cohort design with 1.8- to 1.9-year follow-up. The identification cohort included 517 cases and 4057 randomly selected patients from ARISTOTLE. The validation cohort included 277 cases and 1042 randomly selected controls from RE-LY. Plasma collected at randomization was analysed with conventional immunoassays and the OLINK proximity extension assay panels: CVDII, CVDIII, and Inflammation. Association between biomarkers and CV death was evaluated using Random Survival Forest, Boruta, and adjusted Cox-regression analyses. The biomarkers most strongly and consistently associated with CV death were as follows (hazard ratio for inter-quartile comparison [95% CI]): N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide [NT-proBNP; 1.63 (1.37-1.93)], cardiac troponin T [cTnT-hs; 1.60 (1.35-1.88)], interleukin-6 [IL-6; 1.29 (1.13-1.47)], growth differentiation factor-15 [GDF-15; 1.30 (1.10-1.53)], fibroblast growth factor 23 [FGF-23; 1.21 (1.10-1.33)], urokinase receptor [uPAR; 1.38 (1.16-1.64)], trefoil factor 3 [TFF3; 1.27 (1.10-1.46)], tumour necrosis factor receptor 1 [TNFR1; 1.21 (1.01-1.45)], TNF-related apoptosis-inducing ligand receptor 2 [TRAILR2; 1.18 (1.04-1.34)], and cathepsin L1 [CTSL1; 1.22 (1.07-1.39)]. CONCLUSION: In this comprehensive screening of 268 biomarkers in anticoagulated patients with AF, the underlying mechanisms most strongly associated with CV death were cardiorenal dysfunction (NT-proBNP, cTnT-hs, CTSL1, TFF3), oxidative stress (GDF-15), inflammation (IL-6, GDF-15), calcium balance, vascular and renal dysfunction (FGF-23), fibrinolysis (suPAR), and apoptosis (TNFR1, TRAILR2). These findings provide novel insights into pathophysiologic aspects associated with CV death in AF. CLINICALTRIALS.GOV IDENTIFIER: NCT00412984 and NCT00262600.

Multiplex protein screening of biomarkers associated with major bleeding in patients with atrial fibrillation treated with oral anticoagulation.

BACKGROUND: Oral anticoagulants (OAC) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) prevent thromboembolic events, but are associated with significant risk of bleeding. OBJECTIVES: To explore associations between a wide range of biomarkers and bleeding risk in patients with AF on OAC. METHOD: Biomarkers were analyzed in a random sample of 4200 patients, 204 cases with major bleedings, from ARISTOTLE. The replication cohort included 344 cases with major bleeding and 1024 random controls from RE-LY. Plasma samples obtained at randomization were analyzed by the Olink Proximity Extension Assay cardiovascular and inflammation panels and conventional immunoassays. The associations between biomarker levels and major bleeding over 1 to 3 years of follow-up were evaluated by random survival forest/Boruta analyses and Cox regression analyses to assess linear associations and hazard ratios for identified biomarkers. RESULTS: Out of 268 proteins, nine biomarkers were independently associated with bleeding in both cohorts. In the replication cohort the linear hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) per interquartile range were for these biomarkers: TNF-R1 1.748 (1.456, 2.098), GDF-15 1.653 (1.377, 1.985), EphB4 1.575 (1.320, 1.880), suPAR 1.548 (1.294, 1.851), OPN 1.476 (1.240, 1.757), OPG 1.397 (1.156, 1.688), TNF-R2 1.360 (1.144,1.616), cTnT-hs 1.232 (1.067, 1.423), and TRAIL-R2 1.202 (1.069, 1.351). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with AF on OAC, GDF-15, cTnT-hs, and seven novel biomarkers were independently associated with major bleedings and reflect pathophysiologic processes of inflammation, apoptosis, oxidative stress, vascular calcification, coagulation, and fibrinolysis. Investigations of the utility of these markers to refine risk stratification and guide the management of patients at high risk of bleeding are warranted.

Interleukin 6 and Cardiovascular Outcomes in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease and Chronic Coronary Syndrome.

Importance: Inflammation promotes cardiovascular disease and anti-inflammatory treatment reduces cardiovascular events in patients with chronic coronary syndrome. Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease. It is unclear how inflammation mediated by interleukin 6 (IL-6) in patients with CKD is linked to cardiovascular disease. Objective: To investigate associations between IL-6 and cardiovascular outcomes in patients with chronic coronary syndrome in association with kidney function. Design, Setting, and Participants: This multicenter cohort study included patients enrolled at 663 centers in 39 countries with chronic coronary syndrome who were included in the Stabilization of Atherosclerotic Plaque by Initiation of Darapladib Therapy (STABILITY) trial. Patients were enrolled between December 2008 and April 2010 and were followed up for a median length of 3.7 years. Analysis in this substudy began September 2020. Exposures: Exposures were IL-6 and creatinine estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFR), which were collected at baseline. Associations between continuous and categorical levels (<2.0 ng/L vs ≥2.0 ng/L) of IL-6 and cardiovascular outcomes were tested in association with eGFR cutoffs (normal eGFR level [≥90 mL/min/1.73 m2], mildly decreased eGFR level [60-90 mL/min/1.73 m2], and moderately to severely decreased eGFR level [<60 mL/min/1.73 m2]). Main Outcomes and Measures: Main outcome was major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), a composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, and stroke. Results: This substudy of the STABILITY trial included 14 611 patients with available IL-6 levels at baseline. The median (interquartile range) age was 65 (59-71) years, and 2700 (18.5%) were female. During follow-up, MACE occurred in 1459 individuals (10.0%). Higher levels of IL-6 were in continuous models independently associated with risk of MACE (P < .001) in all CKD strata. Using predefined strata, elevated IL-6 level (≥2.0 vs <2.0 ng/L) was associated with increased risk of MACE at normal kidney function (2.9% vs 1.9% events/y [hazard ratio, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.02-1.78]), mild CKD (3.3% vs 1.9% [hazard ratio, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.35-1.83]), and moderate to severe CKD (5.0% vs 2.9% [hazard ratio, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.28-1.99]). Conclusions and Relevance: In patients with chronic coronary syndrome, elevated levels of IL-6 were associated with risk of MACE in all CKD strata. Thus, IL-6 and CKD stage may help when identifying patients with chronic coronary syndrome for anti-inflammatory treatment.

Biomarker-Based Risk Prediction With the ABC-AF Scores in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation Not Receiving Oral Anticoagulation.

BACKGROUND: The novel ABC (Age, Biomarkers, Clinical History) scores outperform traditional risk scores for stroke, major bleeding, and death in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) receiving oral anticoagulation. To refine their utility, the ABC-AF scores needed to be validated in patients not receiving oral anticoagulation. METHODS: We measured plasma levels of the ABC biomarkers (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, cardiac troponin-T, and growth-differentiation factor 15) to apply the previously developed ABC-AF scores in patients with AF receiving aspirin (n=3195) or aspirin and clopidogrel (n=1110) in 2 large clinical trials. Calibration was assessed by comparing estimated with observed 1-year risks. Cox regression models were used for recalibration. Discrimination was evaluated separately for the aspirin-only and the overall cohort (n=4305). RESULTS: The ABC-AF-stroke score yielded a c-index of 0.70 (95% CI, 0.67-0.73) in both cohorts. The ABC-AF-bleeding score had a c-index of 0.76 (95% CI, 0.71-0.81) in the aspirin-only cohort and 0.73 (95% CI, 0.69-0.77) overall. Both scores were superior to risk scores recommended by current guidelines. The ABC-AF-death score yielded a c-index of 0.78 (95% CI, 0.76-0.80) overall. Calibrated in patients receiving oral anticoagulation, the ABC-AF-stroke score underestimated and the ABC-AF-bleeding score overestimated the risk of events in both cohorts. These scores were recalibrated for prediction of absolute event rates in the absence of oral anticoagulation. CONCLUSIONS: The biomarker-based ABC-AF scores showed better discrimination than traditional risk scores and were recalibrated for precise risk estimation in patients not receiving oral anticoagulation. They can now provide improved decision support on treatment of an individual patient with AF.

Evaluation of the prognostic value of GDF-15, ABC-AF-bleeding score and ABC-AF-death score in patients with atrial fibrillation across different geographical areas.

OBJECTIVES: Growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15) is a biomarker independently associated with bleeding and death in anticoagulated patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). GDF-15 is also used as one component in the more precise biomarker-based ABC (age, biomarkers, clinical history)-AF-bleeding and ABC-AF-death risk scores. Data from large trials indicate a geographic variability in regard to overall outcomes, including bleeding and mortality risk. Our aim was to assess the consistency of the association between GDF-15, ABC-AF-bleeding score and ABC-AF-death score, with major bleeding and death, across world geographic regions. METHODS: Data were available from 14 767 patients with AF from the Apixaban for Reduction in Stroke and Other Thromboembolic Events in Atrial Fibrillation (ARISTOTLE) trial and 8651 patients with AF from the Randomized Evaluation of Long-Term Anticoagulation Therapy (RE-LY) trial in this cohort study. GDF-15 was analysed from plasma samples obtained at randomisation. The geographical consistency of the associations between outcomes and GDF-15, ABC-AF-bleeding score and ABC-AF-death scores were assessed by Cox-regression models including interactions with predefined geographical region. RESULTS: GDF-15 and the ABC-AF-bleeding score were associated with major bleeding in both trials across regions (p<0.0001). Similarly, GDF-15 and the ABC-AF-death score were associated with all-cause mortality in both trials across regions (p<0.0001). Overall, the association between GDF-15, the ABC-AF-bleeding score and ABC-AF-death risk score with major bleeding and death was consistent across regions in both ARISTOTLE and the RE-LY trial cohorts. The ABC-AF-bleeding and ABC-AF-death risk scores were consistent regarding discriminative ability when comparing geographic regions in both trial cohorts. The C-indices ranged from 0.649 to 0.760 for the ABC-AF-bleeding and from 0.677 to 0.806 for the ABC-AF-death score by different geographic regions. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with AF on anticoagulation, GDF-15 and the biomarker-based ABC-AF-bleeding and ABC-AF-death risk scores are consistently associated with respectively increased risk of major bleeding and death and have similar prognostic value across world geographic regions. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ClinicalTrials.gov Registry NCT00412984 and NCT00262600.

Risk markers of incident atrial fibrillation in patients with coronary heart disease.

BACKGROUND: In patients with coronary heart disease (CHD), atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. We investigated the associations between clinical risk factors and biomarkers with incident AF in patients with CHD. METHODS AND RESULTS: Around 13,153 patients with optimally treated CHD included in the STabilization of Atherosclerotic plaque By Initiation of darapLadIb TherapY (STABILITY) trial with plasma samples obtained at randomization. Mean follow-up time was 3.5 years. The association between clinical risk factors and biomarkers with incident AF was estimated with Cox-regression models. Validation was performed in 1,894 patients with non-ST-elevation acute coronary syndrome included in the FRISC-II trial. The median (min-max) age was 64 years (range 26-92) and 2,514 (19.1%) were women. A total of 541 patients, annual incidence rate of 1.2%, developed AF during follow-up. In multivariable models, older age, higher levels of NT-proBNP, higher body mass index (BMI), male sex, geographic regions, low physical activity, and heart failure were independently associated with increased risk of incident AF with hazard ratios ranging from 1.04 to 1.79 (P ≤ .05). NT-proBNP improved the C-index from 0.70 to 0.71. In the validation cohort, age, BMI, and NT-proBNP were associated with increased risk of incident AF with similar hazard ratios. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with optimally treated CHD, the incidence of new AF was 1.2% per year. Age, NT-proBNP as a marker of impaired cardiac function, and BMI were the strongest factors, independently and consistently associated with incident AF. Male sex and low physical activity may also contribute to the risk of AF in patients with CHD.