Predicting suicide: A comparison between clinical suicide risk assessment and the Suicide Intent Scale.

BACKGROUND: How suicide risk should be assessed is under discussion with arguments for both actuarial and clinical approaches. The aim of the present study was to compare the predictive accuracy of a clinical suicide risk assessment to that of the Suicide Intent Scale (SIS) in predicting suicide within one year of an episode of self-harm with or without suicidal intent. METHODS: Prospective clinical study of 479 persons assessed in a psychiatric emergency department after an episode of self-harm. The clinical risk assessment and the SIS rating were made independently of each other. Suicides within one year were identified in the National Cause of Death Register. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed, optimal cut-offs were identified and accuracy statistics were calculated. RESULTS: Of 479 participants, 329 (68.7%) were women. The age range was 18-95 years. During one-year follow up, 14 participants died by suicide. The area under the curve (AUC) for the clinical risk assessment and the SIS score were very similar, as were the accuracy statistic measures at the optimal cut-offs of the respective methods. The positive predictive value (PPV) of each assessment method was 6%. LIMITATIONS: The clinical suicide risk assessment is not standardized. The number of suicides is small, not allowing for stratification by e.g. gender or diagnosis. CONCLUSION: Predictive accuracy was similar for a clinical risk assessment and the SIS, and insufficient to guide treatment allocation.

A Comparison of Suicide Risk Scales in Predicting Repeat Suicide Attempt and Suicide: A Clinical Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the predictive accuracy of the Suicide Intent Scale (SIS), the Suicide Assessment Scale (SUAS), the Karolinska Interpersonal Violence Scale (KIVS), and the Columbia-Suicide Severity Rating Scale (C-SSRS) for suicide attempts and suicides within 3 and 12 months of an episode of self-harm. METHODS: This prospective multicenter cohort study included patients (N = 804) aged 18-95 years with a recent episode of self-harm assessed in psychiatric emergency settings from April 2012 to April 2016. Suicide attempts and suicides were identified in medical records and in the National Cause of Death Register. Receiver operating characteristic curves were constructed, and accuracy statistics were calculated. A sensitivity of at least 80% combined with a specificity of at least 50% were considered minimally acceptable. RESULTS: At least 1 suicide attempt was recorded for 216 participants during follow-up, and 19 participants died by suicide. The SUAS and C-SSRS were better than chance in classifying the 114 suicide attempts occurring within the first 3 months; a C-SSRS score ≥ 27 yielded a sensitivity/specificity of 79.8%/51.5% (P < .001). During 1-year follow-up, the SUAS and C-SSRS also performed better than chance, but no cutoff on either instrument gave a sensitivity/specificity of ≥ 80%/≥ 50%. The SIS was the only instrument that could classify suicides correctly. At 3 months, the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.94 (95% CI, 0.89-0.99), and a score ≥ 21 predicted suicide with a sensitivity/specificity of 100%/81.9%, based on only 4 suicides. At 1-year follow-up, the AUC was 0.74 (95% CI, 0.61-0.87), and a score ≥ 17 predicted suicide with a sensitivity/specificity of 72.2%/57.9%. CONCLUSIONS: Instruments that predicted nonfatal repeat suicide attempts did not predict suicide and vice versa. With the possible exception of the prediction of suicide by the SIS in a short time frame, the specificity of these instruments was low, giving them a limited relevance in the prediction of suicidal behaviors.

Short term risk of non-fatal and fatal suicidal behaviours: the predictive validity of the Columbia-Suicide Severity Rating Scale in a Swedish adult psychiatric population with a recent episode of self-harm.

BACKGROUND: The Columbia-Suicide Severity Rating Scale (C-SSRS) is a relatively new instrument for the assessment of suicidal ideation and behaviour that is widely used in clinical and research settings. The predictive properties of the C-SSRS have mainly been evaluated in young US populations. We wanted to examine the instrument's predictive validity in a Swedish cohort of adults seeking psychiatric emergency services after an episode of self-harm. METHODS: Prospective cohort study of patients (n = 804) presenting for psychiatric emergency assessment after an episode of self-harm with or without suicidal intent. Suicidal ideation and behaviours at baseline were rated with the C-SSRS and subsequent non-fatal and fatal suicide attempts within 6 months were identified by record review. Logistic regression was used to evaluate separate ideation items and total scores as predictors of non-fatal and fatal suicide attempts. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves were constructed for the suicidal ideation (SI) intensity score and the C-SSRS total score. RESULTS: In this cohort, the median age at baseline was 33 years, 67% were women and 68% had made at least one suicide attempt prior to the index attempt. At least one non-fatal or fatal suicide attempt was recorded during follow-up for 165 persons (20.5%). The single C-SSRS items frequency, duration and deterrents were associated with this composite outcome; controllability and reasons were not. In a logistic regression model adjusted for previous history of suicide attempt, SI intensity score was a significant predictor of a non-fatal or fatal suicide attempt (OR 1.08; 95% CI 1.03-1.12). ROC analysis showed that the SI intensity score was somewhat better than chance in correctly classifying the outcome (AUC 0.62, 95% CI 0.57-0.66). The corresponding figures for the C-SSRS total score were 0.65, 95% CI 0.60-0.69. CONCLUSIONS: The C-SSRS items frequency, duration and deterrents were associated with elevated short term risk in this adult psychiatric cohort, as were both the SI intensity score and the C-SSRS total score. However, the ability to correctly predict future suicidal behaviour was limited for both scores.

Interpersonal violence and the prediction of short-term risk of repeat suicide attempt.

In this multi-center cohort study, suicide attempters presenting to hospital (N = 355, 63% women) were interviewed using the Karolinska Interpersonal Violence Scale (KIVS) and followed-up by medical record review. Main outcome was non-fatal or fatal repeat suicide attempt within six months. Also, repeat attempt using a violent method was used as an additional outcome in separate analyses. Data were analyzed for the total group and for men and women separately. Repeat attempts were observed within six months in 78 persons (22%) and 21 (6%) of these used a violent method. KIVS total score of 6 or more was associated with repeat suicide attempt within six months (OR = 1.81, CI 1.08-3.02) and predicted new attempts with a sensitivity of 62% and a specificity of 53%. A three-fold increase in odds ratio was observed for repeat attempt using a violent method (OR = 3.40, CI 1.22-9.49). An association between exposure to violence in adulthood and violent reattempt was seen in women (OR = 1.38, CI 1.06-1.82). The overall conclusions are that information about interpersonal violence may help predict short-term risk for repeat suicide attempt, and that structured assessment of interpersonal violence may be of value in risk assessment after attempted suicide.

Vitamin D and Respiratory Tract Infections: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials.

BACKGROUND: Low levels of 25-OH vitamin D are associated with respiratory tract infection (RTI). However, results from randomized controlled trials are inconclusive. Therefore, we performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the preventive effect of vitamin D supplementation on RTI. METHODS: Randomized, controlled trials of vitamin D for prevention of RTI were used for the analysis. The risks of within-trial and publication bias were assessed. Odds ratios of RTI were pooled using a random-effects model. Heterogeneity was assessed using Cochran's Q and I(2). Meta-regressions and subgroup analyses were used to assess the influence of various factors on trial outcome. The pre-defined review protocol was registered at the PROSPERO international prospective register of systematic reviews, registration number CRD42013003530. FINDINGS: Of 1137 citations retrieved, 11 placebo-controlled studies of 5660 patients were included in the meta-analysis. Overall, vitamin D showed a protective effect against RTI (OR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.49 to 0.84). There was significant heterogeneity among studies (Cohran's Q p<0.0001, I(2) = 72%). The protective effect was larger in studies using once-daily dosing compared to bolus doses (OR = 0.51 vs OR = 0.86, p = 0.01). There was some evidence that results may have been influenced by publication bias. INTERPRETATION: Results indicate that vitamin D has a protective effect against RTI, and dosing once-daily seems most effective. Due to heterogeneity of included studies and possible publication bias in the field, these results should be interpreted with caution.