Transcriptome sequencing data provides a solid base to understand the phylogenetic relationships, biogeography and reticulated evolution of the genus Zamia L. (Cycadales: Zamiaceae).

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Cycad is a key lineage to understand the early evolution of seed plants and their response to past environmental changes. However, tracing the evolutionary trajectory of cycad species is challenging when the robust relationships at inter- or infrageneric level are not well resolved. METHODS: Here, using 2,901 single-copy nuclear genes, we explored the species relationships and gene flow within the second largest genus of cycads, i.e., Zamia, based on phylotranscriptomic analyses of 90% extant Zamia species. Based on a well-resolved phylogenetic framework, we performed gene flow analyses, molecular dating, and biogeographical reconstruction to examine the spatiotemporal evolution of Zamia. We also performed ancestral state reconstruction (ASR) of a total of 62 traits of the genus to comprehensively investigate its morphological evolution. KEY RESULTS: Zamia is comprised of seven major clades corresponding to seven distinct distribution areas in the Americas, with at least three reticulation nodes revealed in this genus. Extant lineages of Zamia initially diversified around 18.4-32.6 (29.14) million years ago (MA) in the Mega-Mexico, and then expanded eastward into the Caribbean and southward into Central and South America. ASR revealed homoplasy in most of the morphological characters. CONCLUSIONS: This study revealed congruent phylogenetic relationships from comparative methods/datasets, with some conflicts being the result of incomplete lineage sorting and ancient/recent hybridization events. The strong association between the clades and the biogeographic areas suggested that ancient dispersal events shaped the modern distribution pattern, and regional climatic factors may have resulted in the following in-situ diversification. Climate cooling starting during the mid Miocene is associated with the global expansion of Zamia to the tropical South America that have dramatically driven lineage diversification in the New World flora, as well as the extinction of cycad species in the nowadays cooler regions of both hemispheres as indicated by the fossil records.

Eco-evolutionary evidence for the global diversity pattern of Cycas (Cycadaceae).

The evolution of the latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG), characterized by a peak in diversity toward the tropics, has captured significant attention in evolutionary biology and ecology. However, the inverse LDG (i-LDG) mechanism, wherein species richness increases toward the poles, remains inadequately explored. Cycads are among one of the oldest lineages of extant seed plants and have undergone extensive diversification in the tropics. Intriguingly, the extant cycad abundance exhibits an i-LDG pattern, and the underlying causes for this phenomenon remain largely elusive. Here, using 1,843 nuclear genes from a nearly complete sampling, we conducted comprehensive phylogenomic analyses to establish a robust species-level phylogeny for Cycas, the largest genus within cycads. We then reconstructed the spatial-temporal dynamics and integrated global environmental data to evaluate the roles of species ages, diversification rates, contemporary environment, and conservatism to ancestral niches in shaping the i-LDG pattern. We found Cycas experienced decreased diversification rates, coupled with the cooling temperature since its origin in the Eocene from continental Asia. Different regions have distinctively contributed to the formation of i-LDG for Cycas, with the northern hemisphere acting as evolutionary museums and the southern hemisphere serving as cradles. Moreover, water-related climate variables, specifically precipitation seasonality and potential evapotranspiration, were identified as paramount factors constraining Cycas species richness in the rainforest biome near the equator. Notably, the adherence to ancestral monsoonal climates emerges as a critical factor in sustaining the diversity pattern. This study underscores the imperative of integrating both evolutionary and ecological approaches to comprehensively unravel the mechanisms underpinning global biodiversity patterns.

Curcumamaxwellii and C.rubroaurantiaca (Zingiberaceae, Zingiberoideae), two new species from Thailand.

Curcumamaxwelliisp. nov. and Curcumarubroaurantiacasp. nov. (Zingiberaceae, Zingiberoideae, Zingibereae), two new red-orange-flowered species from Thailand, are described. They are compared to the morphologically closest species from the Curcumasubgen.Ecomatae and detailed descriptions, colour plates and information on their distribution, ecology, phenology and uses are provided. Preliminary IUCN conservation assessments for both of these species are proposed as Least Concern.

Phylotranscriptomics Shed Light on Intrageneric Relationships and Historical Biogeography of Ceratozamia (Cycadales).

Ceratozamia Brongn. is one of the species-rich genera of Cycadales comprising 38 species that are mainly distributed in Mexico, with a few species reported from neighboring regions. Phylogenetic relationships within the genus need detailed investigation based on extensive datasets and reliable systematic approaches. Therefore, we used 30 of the known 38 species to reconstruct the phylogeny based on transcriptome data of 3954 single-copy nuclear genes (SCGs) via coalescent and concatenated approaches and three comparative datasets (nt/nt12/aa). Based on all these methods, Ceratozamia is divided into six phylogenetic subclades within three major clades. There were a few discrepancies regarding phylogenetic position of some species within these subclades. Using these phylogenetic trees, biogeographic history and morphological diversity of the genus are explored. Ceratozamia originated from ancestors in southern Mexico since the mid-Miocene. There is a distinct distribution pattern of species through the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB), that act as a barrier for the species dispersal at TMVB and its southern and northern part. Limited dispersal events occurred during the late Miocene, and maximum diversification happened during the Pliocene epoch. Our study provides a new insight into phylogenetic relationships, the origin and dispersal routes, and morphological diversity of the genus Ceratozamia. We also explain how past climatic changes affected the diversification of this Mesoamerica-native genus.

Phylotranscriptomics reveal the spatio-temporal distribution and morphological evolution of Macrozamia, an Australian endemic genus of Cycadales.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Cycads are regarded as an ancient lineage of living seed plants, and hold important clues to understand the early evolutionary trends of seed plants. The molecular phylogeny and spatio-temporal diversification of one of the species-rich genera of cycads, Macrozamia, have not been well reconstructed. METHODS: We analysed a transcriptome dataset of 4740 single-copy nuclear genes (SCGs) of 39 Macrozamia species and two outgroup taxa. Based on concatenated (maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood) and multispecies coalescent analyses, we first establish a well-resolved phylogenetic tree of Macrozamia. To identify cyto-nuclear incongruence, the plastid protein coding genes (PCGs) from transcriptome data are extracted using the software HybPiper. Furthermore, we explore the biogeographical history of the genus and shed light on the pattern of floristic exchange between three distinct areas of Australia. Six key diagnostic characters are traced on the phylogenetic framework using two comparative methods, and infra-generic classification is investigated. KEY RESULTS: The tree topologies of concatenated and multi-species coalescent analyses of SCGs are mostly congruent with a few conflicting nodes, while those from plastid PCGs show poorly supported relationships. The genus contains three major clades that correspond to their distinct distributional areas in Australia. The crown group of Macrozamia is estimated to around 11.80 Ma, with a major expansion in the last 5-6 Myr. Six morphological characters show homoplasy, and the traditional phenetic sectional division of the genus is inconsistent with this current phylogeny. CONCLUSIONS: This first detailed phylogenetic investigation of Macrozamia demonstrates promising prospects of SCGs in resolving phylogenetic relationships within cycads. Our study suggests that Macrozamia, once widely distributed in Australia, underwent major extinctions because of fluctuating climatic conditions such as cooling and mesic biome disappearance in the past. The current close placement of morphologically distinct species in the phylogenetic tree may be related to neotenic events that occurred in the genus.

The Cycas genome and the early evolution of seed plants.

Cycads represent one of the most ancient lineages of living seed plants. Identifying genomic features uniquely shared by cycads and other extant seed plants, but not non-seed-producing plants, may shed light on the origin of key innovations, as well as the early diversification of seed plants. Here, we report the 10.5-Gb reference genome of Cycas panzhihuaensis, complemented by the transcriptomes of 339 cycad species. Nuclear and plastid phylogenomic analyses strongly suggest that cycads and Ginkgo form a clade sister to all other living gymnosperms, in contrast to mitochondrial data, which place cycads alone in this position. We found evidence for an ancient whole-genome duplication in the common ancestor of extant gymnosperms. The Cycas genome contains four homologues of the fitD gene family that were likely acquired via horizontal gene transfer from fungi, and these genes confer herbivore resistance in cycads. The male-specific region of the Y chromosome of C. panzhihuaensis contains a MADS-box transcription factor expressed exclusively in male cones that is similar to a system reported in Ginkgo, suggesting that a sex determination mechanism controlled by MADS-box genes may have originated in the common ancestor of cycads and Ginkgo. The C. panzhihuaensis genome provides an important new resource of broad utility for biologists.

Towards the plastome evolution and phylogeny of Cycas L. (Cycadaceae): molecular-morphology discordance and gene tree space analysis.

BACKGROUND: Plastid genomes (plastomes) present great potential in resolving multiscale phylogenetic relationship but few studies have focused on the influence of genetic characteristics of plastid genes, such as genetic variation and phylogenetic discordance, in resolving the phylogeny within a lineage. Here we examine plastome characteristics of Cycas L., the most diverse genus among extant cycads, and investigate the deep phylogenetic relationships within Cycas by sampling 47 plastomes representing all major clades from six sections. RESULTS: All Cycas plastomes shared consistent gene content and structure with only one gene loss detected in Philippine species C. wadei. Three novel plastome regions (psbA-matK, trnN-ndhF, chlL-trnN) were identified as containing the highest nucleotide variability. Molecular evolutionary analysis showed most of the plastid protein-coding genes have been under purifying selection except ndhB. Phylogenomic analyses that alternatively included concatenated and coalescent methods, both identified four clades but with conflicting topologies at shallow nodes. Specifically, we found three species-rich Cycas sections, namely Stangerioides, Indosinenses and Cycas, were not or only weakly supported as monophyly based on plastomic phylogeny. Tree space analyses based on different tree-inference methods both revealed three gene clusters, of which the cluster with moderate genetic properties showed the best congruence with the favored phylogeny. CONCLUSIONS: Our exploration in plastomic data for Cycas supports the idea that plastid protein-coding genes may exhibit discordance in phylogenetic signals. The incongruence between molecular phylogeny and morphological classification reported here may largely be attributed to the uniparental attribute of plastid, which cannot offer sufficient information to resolve the phylogeny. Contrasting to a previous consensus that genes with longer sequences and a higher proportion of variances are superior for phylogeny reconstruction, our result implies that the most effective phylogenetic signals could come from loci that own moderate variation, GC content, sequence length, and underwent modest selection.

The Original Scientific Description of the Lone Star Tick (Amblyomma americanum, Acari: Ixodidae) and Implications for the Species' Past and Future Geographic Distributions.

Amblyomma americanum L. is an important vector in North America originally described by Linnaeus based on Pehr Kalm's 1754 report. While Kalm's 'Travels into North America' is well known, his 1754 report remains obscure. Some authors were skeptical that Kalm referred to A. americanum because he encountered them at sites farther north outside of the species' range. However, the details in 1754 report leave no doubt that Kalm described lone star ticks. In this historical review, we provide support for Kalm's identification using a modern translation of his 1754 report and other sources. We also delineate distributional changes of lone star ticks from the pre-colonization era to the present and interpret them in the context of large-scale anthropogenic changes in the landscape. In this framework, the lone star tick's current northward expansion is a recolonization of their former range. Extensive deforestation and extirpation of their principal host species, white-tailed deer, led to A. americanum's disappearance from the northern parts of its range by the 20th century. Subsequent recolonization by second-growth forest and increases in white-tailed deer populations by the mid-20th century is now allowing A. americanum to reclaim its former range. These changes in the land appear to be the driving force behind A. americanum's present expansion. Understanding this species' history and the factors contributing to its current expansion will enable better predictions about its future distribution and potential to transmit human pathogens.

Not that young: combining plastid phylogenomic, plate tectonic and fossil evidence indicates a Palaeogene diversification of Cycadaceae.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Previous molecular dating studies revealed historical mass extinctions and recent radiations of extant cycads, but debates still exist between palaeobotanists and evolutionary biologists regarding the origin and evolution of Cycadaceae. METHODS: Using whole plastomic data, we revisited the phylogeny of this family and found the Palawan endemic Cycas clade was strongly related to all lineages from Southeast Eurasia, coinciding with a plate drift event occurring in the Early Oligocene. By integrating fossil and biogeographical calibrations as well as molecular data from protein-coding genes, we established different calibration schemes and tested competing evolutionary timelines of Cycadaceae. KEY RESULTS: We found recent dispersal cannot explain the distribution of Palawan Cycas, yet the scenario including the tectonic calibration yielded a mean crown age of extant Cycadaceae of ~69-43 million years ago by different tree priors, consistent with multiple Palaeogene fossils assigned to this family. Biogeographical analyses incorporating fossil distributions revealed East Asia as the ancestral area of Cycadaceae. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings challenge the previously proposed Middle-Late Miocene diversification of cycads and an Indochina origin for Cycadaceae and highlight the importance of combining phylogenetic clades, tectonic events and fossils for rebuilding the evolutionary history of lineages that have undergone massive extinctions.

Congruence between ocean-dispersal modelling and phylogeography explains recent evolutionary history of Cycas species with buoyant seeds.

Ocean currents play a significant role in driving the long-distance dispersal (LDD), spatial distribution and phylogeographic patterns of many organisms. Integrating phylogeographic analyses and mechanistic ocean current modelling can provide novel insights into the evolutionary history of terrestrial littoral species but has been rarely applied in this context. We focused on a group of Cycas that have buoyant seeds and occupy coastal habitats. By integrating evidence from mechanistic simulations and whole plastomic data, we examined the role of ocean circulation in shaping the phylogeography of these Cycas species. Plastomes of the studied Cycas species showed extreme conservatism, following a post-Pleistocene divergence. Phylogenies revealed three subclades, corresponding to the Pacific Ocean, Sunda Shelf and Indian Ocean. The ocean modelling results indicate that hotspots of seed stranding coincide well with the contemporary distribution of the Cycas species and that drifting trajectories from the three subclades are largely confined to separate regions. These findings suggest that ocean current systems, by driving long-distance dispersal, have shaped the distribution and phylogeography for Cycas with buoyant seeds. This study highlights how the combination of genomic data and ocean drift modelling can help explain phylogeographic patterns and diversity in terrestrial littoral ecosystems.

Different Hatching Rates of Floodwater Mosquitoes Aedes sticticus, Aedes rossicus and Aedes cinereus from Different Flooded Environments.

In the lower Dalälven region, floodwater mosquitoes cause recurring problems. The main nuisance species is Aedes (Ochlerotatus) sticticus, but large numbers of Aedes (Aedes) rossicus and Aedes (Aedes) cinereus also hatch during flooding events. To increase understanding of which environments in the area give rise to mosquito nuisance, soil samples were taken from 20 locations from four environmental categories: grazed meadows, mowed meadows, unkept open grassland areas and forest areas. In each location 20 soil samples were taken, 10 from random locations and 10 from moisture retaining structures, such as tussocks, shrubs, piles of leaves, logs, and roots. The soil samples were soaked with tap water in the lab, and mosquito larvae were collected and allowed to develop to adult mosquitoes for species identification. Fewer larvae hatched from mowed areas and more larvae hatched from moisture retaining structure samples than random samples. The results showed that Aedes cinereus mostly hatch from grazed and unkept areas and hatched as much from random samples as from structures, whereas Aedes sticticus and Aedes rossicus hatched from open unkept and forest areas and hatch significantly more from structure samples. When the moisture retaining structures in open unkept areas where Aedes sticticus hatched were identified it was clear that they hatched predominantly from willow shrubs that offered shade. The results suggest that Ae. sticticus and Ae. cinereus favor different flooded environments for oviposition.

The Human Biting Culex pipiens Bioform molestus Detected in Several Areas in Southern Sweden.

Background: The mosquito species Culex pipiens is a known vector of several pathogens and occurs in two distinct bioforms, pipiens and molestus. The bioform molestus thrives in urban environments where there are below-ground habitats; it can mate in confined spaces and feed on mammals as well as birds. In contrast, the bioform pipiens is found above ground, is thought to require more space for mating, and mainly feeds on birds. The pipiens bioform is present in large parts of Sweden but the molestus bioform has previously only been found in major cities. Materials and Methods: People experiencing mosquito nuisance in southern Sweden submitted mosquito samples as part of a citizen science project, and these samples were analyzed to determine the geographical distribution of the molestus bioform of Cx. pipiens. Mosquito specimens were identified to the species level by DNA barcoding of the cytochrome C oxidase subunit I (COI) gene, and the bioforms were determined through the CQ11 microsatellite marker. Results:Culex pipiens f molestus was observed to be spread across large parts of Gothenburg as well as in the suburbs. This bioform was found both in urban and rural areas at several sites across southern Sweden. In one site, hybrids between the two bioforms were found. Conclusions: The detection of Cx. pipiens f molestus in several rural areas was surprising, indicating that it may be more widely spread than urban areas alone, where it has been previously reported.

Mites (Acari) as a Relevant Tool in Trace Evidence and Postmortem Analyses of Buried Corpses.

This report interprets the presence of mite species in three clandestine graves in Europe, evaluating their potential use as trace evidence or markers. Grave 1 (Sweden): Two mite species Rhizoglyphus robini Claparède, 1869 and Parasitus loricatus (Wankel, 1861) were recovered from the surface of a body buried in a shallow grave in an area surrounded by trees, in close vicinity to house gardens. Grave 2 (Germany): Phoretic deutonymphs of Gamasodes spiniger (Trägårdh, 1910) were attached to an adult fly (Diptera: Sphaeroceridae) found within a shallow grave containing two human bodies covered in soil and dung. Grave 3 (France): P. loricatus were recovered from the soil around a body buried in a deep grave (80 cm under). In graves 1 and 3 both corpses were undergoing advanced decay and skeletization, the locations match with the subterranean habit of P. loricatus, highlighting the value of this species as a marker of graves or burials in soil and during late decomposition. R. robini is a soil mite that feeds on decayed roots and bulbs; this mite species confirms the location of the corpse within top soil, agreeing with a more specific type of superficial burial, a shallow grave. In case 2, the presence of both coprophiles, the mite G. spiniger and the carrier fly confirm association of remains with dung or animal feces. The three mite species are reported for the first time in human graves. There are no previous records of R. robini from Sweden.

Modelling the monthly abundance of Culicoides biting midges in nine European countries using Random Forests machine learning.

BACKGROUND: Culicoides biting midges transmit viruses resulting in disease in ruminants and equids such as bluetongue, Schmallenberg disease and African horse sickness. In the past decades, these diseases have led to important economic losses for farmers in Europe. Vector abundance is a key factor in determining the risk of vector-borne disease spread and it is, therefore, important to predict the abundance of Culicoides species involved in the transmission of these pathogens. The objectives of this study were to model and map the monthly abundances of Culicoides in Europe. METHODS: We obtained entomological data from 904 farms in nine European countries (Spain, France, Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Poland, Denmark, Sweden and Norway) from 2007 to 2013. Using environmental and climatic predictors from satellite imagery and the machine learning technique Random Forests, we predicted the monthly average abundance at a 1 km2 resolution. We used independent test sets for validation and to assess model performance. RESULTS: The predictive power of the resulting models varied according to month and the Culicoides species/ensembles predicted. Model performance was lower for winter months. Performance was higher for the Obsoletus ensemble, followed by the Pulicaris ensemble, while the model for Culicoides imicola showed a poor performance. Distribution and abundance patterns corresponded well with the known distributions in Europe. The Random Forests model approach was able to distinguish differences in abundance between countries but was not able to predict vector abundance at individual farm level. CONCLUSIONS: The models and maps presented here represent an initial attempt to capture large scale geographical and temporal variations in Culicoides abundance. The models are a first step towards producing abundance inputs for R0 modelling of Culicoides-borne infections at a continental scale.

Diel patterns of stem CO2 efflux vary among cycads, arborescent monocots, and woody eudicots and gymnosperms.

The diel patterns of stem carbon dioxide efflux (Es) were determined for cycads, monocots, and woody eudicot and gymnosperm tree species. Stem Es at a height of 30-40 cm was measured every 2 h throughout 31-h campaigns. Our range of Es was 1.5-4.0 µmol·m-2·s-1 for cycads, 1.0-3.5 µmol·m-2·s-1 for arborescent monocots, and 1.5-4.5 µmol·m-2·s-1 for woody eudicot and gymnosperm trees species. Time of day did not influence Es of cycads or monocots. In contrast, the woody stems of eudicots and gymnosperms exhibited diurnal Es that was 36% to 40% greater than nocturnal Es. The established literature based on Es of woody tree species cannot be used to estimate habitat carbon cycles in habitats which contain cycad or monocot trees. Time of day must be included for accuracy of research on Es of woody tree species. Failures to account for the spatiotemporal differences of Es may explain some of the disparity in outcomes of published stem respiration studies.

Globe-Trotting Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus: Risk Factors for Arbovirus Pandemics.

Introduction: Two species of Aedes (Ae.) mosquitoes (Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus) are primary vectors for emerging arboviruses that are a significant threat to public health and economic burden worldwide. Distribution of these vectors and the associated arboviruses, such as dengue virus, chikungunya virus, yellow fever virus, and Zika virus, was for a long time restricted by geographical, ecological, and biological factors. Presently, arbovirus emergence and dispersion are more rapid and geographically widespread, largely due to expansion of the range for these two mosquitoes that have exploited the global transportation network, land perturbation, and failure to contain the mosquito population coupled with enhanced vector competence. Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus may also sustain transmission between humans without having to depend on their natural reservoir forest cycles due to arthropod adaptation to urbanization. Currently, there is no single strategy that is adequate to control these vectors, especially when managing arbovirus outbreaks. Objective: This review aimed at presenting the characteristics and abilities of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, which can drive a global public health risk, and suggests strategies for prevention and control. Methods: This review presents the geographic range, reproduction and ecology, vector competence, genetic evolution, and biological and chemical control of these two mosquito species and how they have changed and developed over time combined with factors that may drive pandemics and mitigation measures. Conclusion: We suggest that more efforts should be geared toward the development of a concerted multidisciplinary approach.

Large outbreak of tularaemia, central Sweden, July to September 2019.

On 31 of July 2019, the Public Health Agency of Sweden was alerted about an increasing number of tularaemia cases in Gävleborg, a county in central Sweden. The number of cases increased thereafter peaking at about 150 reports of illnesses every week. As at 6 October, a total of 979 cases (734 laboratory-confirmed) have been reported, mainly from counties in central Sweden. The outbreak is now considered over (as at 14 October).

Characterization of the complete chloroplast genome of Microcycas calocoma (Zamiaceae), an Endangered monotypic cycad species from Cuba.

Microcycas calocoma is the monotypic species from the critical endangered and endemic cycad genus Microcycas in Cuba, an important taxon to study the evolution of extant gymnosperms. Here we report the complete chloroplast sequences of M. calocoma and characterize the genome structure of this species. The genome size of M. calocoma is 165,667 bp in length which contains 135 genes, including 88 protein-coding genes, eight ribosomal RNA genes and 39 transfer RNA genes. The GC content of this genome is 39.6%. Phylogenomic study shows M. calocoma is mostly closely related to the cycad genus Zamia, which corresponds to previous studies based on multiple nuclear genes and combined plastid and nuclear evidence. The plastome information of M. calocoma offered by this study can contribute to further comparative chloroplast genome in cycads/gymnosperms as well as conservation genetic studies of M. calocoma.

Monthly variation in the probability of presence of adult Culicoides populations in nine European countries and the implications for targeted surveillance.

BACKGROUND: Biting midges of the genus Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) are small hematophagous insects responsible for the transmission of bluetongue virus, Schmallenberg virus and African horse sickness virus to wild and domestic ruminants and equids. Outbreaks of these viruses have caused economic damage within the European Union. The spatio-temporal distribution of biting midges is a key factor in identifying areas with the potential for disease spread. The aim of this study was to identify and map areas of neglectable adult activity for each month in an average year. Average monthly risk maps can be used as a tool when allocating resources for surveillance and control programs within Europe. METHODS: We modelled the occurrence of C. imicola and the Obsoletus and Pulicaris ensembles using existing entomological surveillance data from Spain, France, Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Denmark, Sweden, Norway and Poland. The monthly probability of each vector species and ensembles being present in Europe based on climatic and environmental input variables was estimated with the machine learning technique Random Forest. Subsequently, the monthly probability was classified into three classes: Absence, Presence and Uncertain status. These three classes are useful for mapping areas of no risk, areas of high-risk targeted for animal movement restrictions, and areas with an uncertain status that need active entomological surveillance to determine whether or not vectors are present. RESULTS: The distribution of Culicoides species ensembles were in agreement with their previously reported distribution in Europe. The Random Forest models were very accurate in predicting the probability of presence for C. imicola (mean AUC = 0.95), less accurate for the Obsoletus ensemble (mean AUC = 0.84), while the lowest accuracy was found for the Pulicaris ensemble (mean AUC = 0.71). The most important environmental variables in the models were related to temperature and precipitation for all three groups. CONCLUSIONS: The duration periods with low or null adult activity can be derived from the associated monthly distribution maps, and it was also possible to identify and map areas with uncertain predictions. In the absence of ongoing vector surveillance, these maps can be used by veterinary authorities to classify areas as likely vector-free or as likely risk areas from southern Spain to northern Sweden with acceptable precision. The maps can also focus costly entomological surveillance to seasons and areas where the predictions and vector-free status remain uncertain.