Re-assessing thermal response of schistosomiasis transmission risk: Evidence for a higher thermal optimum than previously predicted.

The geographical range of schistosomiasis is affected by the ecology of schistosome parasites and their obligate host snails, including their response to temperature. Previous models predicted schistosomiasis' thermal optimum at 21.7°C, which is not compatible with the temperature in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) regions where schistosomiasis is hyperendemic. We performed an extensive literature search for empirical data on the effect of temperature on physiological and epidemiological parameters regulating the free-living stages of S. mansoni and S. haematobium and their obligate host snails, i.e., Biomphalaria spp. and Bulinus spp., respectively. We derived nonlinear thermal responses fitted on these data to parameterize a mechanistic, process-based model of schistosomiasis. We then re-cast the basic reproduction number and the prevalence of schistosome infection as functions of temperature. We found that the thermal optima for transmission of S. mansoni and S. haematobium range between 23.1-27.3°C and 23.6-27.9°C (95% CI) respectively. We also found that the thermal optimum shifts toward higher temperatures as the human water contact rate increases with temperature. Our findings align with an extensive dataset of schistosomiasis prevalence in SSA. The refined nonlinear thermal-response model developed here suggests a more suitable current climate and a greater risk of increased transmission with future warming for more than half of the schistosomiasis suitable regions with mean annual temperature below the thermal optimum.

Re-assessing thermal response of schistosomiasis transmission risk: evidence for a higher thermal optimum than previously predicted.

The geographical range of schistosomiasis is affected by the ecology of schistosome parasites and their obligate host snails, including their response to temperature. Previous models predicted schistosomiasis' thermal optimum at 21.7 °C, which is not compatible with the temperature in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) regions where schistosomiasis is hyperendemic. We performed an extensive literature search for empirical data on the effect of temperature on physiological and epidemiological parameters regulating the free-living stages of S. mansoni and S. haematobium and their obligate host snails, i.e., Biomphalaria spp. and Bulinus spp., respectively. We derived nonlinear thermal responses fitted on these data to parameterize a mechanistic, process-based model of schistosomiasis. We then re-cast the basic reproduction number and the prevalence of schistosome infection as functions of temperature. We found that the thermal optima for transmission of S. mansoni and S. haematobium range between 23.1-27.3 °C and 23.6-27.9 °C (95 % CI) respectively. We also found that the thermal optimum shifts toward higher temperatures as the human water contact rate increases with temperature. Our findings align with an extensive dataset of schistosomiasis prevalence in SSA. The refined nonlinear thermal-response model developed here suggests a more suitable current climate and a greater risk of increased transmission with future warming for more than half of the schistosomiasis suitable regions with mean annual temperature below the thermal optimum.

Factors affecting the micronutrient status of adolescent girls living in complex agro-aquatic ecological zones of Bangladesh.

Inadequate intake of both macro and micronutrients is the major determinant of micronutrient deficiencies in adolescent girls. This study assessed multiple micronutrient status including vitamin D, iron, vitamin A, and urinary iodine concentration among adolescent girls through two seasonal cross-sectional surveys conducted during dry and wet seasons. Mixed-effects linear and logistic regression analysis were conducted to assess associations between micronutrient status, salinity and seasonality. The mean age of the girls was 14 years. Vitamin (OH)D insufficiency was significantly higher in freshwater areas in wet season compared to dry season (wet season: 58% and dry season: 30%, P < 0.001). In wet season, risk of vitamin (OH)D insufficiency was three times higher compared to dry season (AOR: 3.03, 95% CI 1.71, 5.37, P < 0.001). The odds of vitamin (OH)D insufficiency was 11 times higher in fresh water areas compared to high saline areas (AOR: 11.51, 95% CI 3.40, 38.93, P < 0.001). The girls had higher risk of iron deficiency in wet season. Despite the environment being enriched with micronutrient-contained aquatic food, adolescent girls in coastal areas experience different micronutrient deficiencies. The high prevalence of vitamin (OH)D insufficiency in freshwater locations and seasonal iron deficiency in high saline areas needs attention.

Salinity extrusion and resilience of coastal aquaculture to the climatic changes in the southwest region of Bangladesh.

The southwest coastal belt of Bangladesh is characterized by a fresh and saline water interaction which gives rise to a discrete inter-saline freshwater convergence zone (ICZ). Hydrology and farming along this transition zone is influenced by upstream and downstream abiotic factors including salinity intrusion and water flow. To better understand the changing geography of the transitional ICZ line and the relative influence of these hydrological events on farming therein, the recent study compared relative changes from 2010 to 2014 based on qualitative and quantitative survey work with 80 households of 4 villages (Shobna, Faltita, Badukhali and Rudaghora) from Khulna and Bagerhat district. Contrary to the conventional hotcake climate change induced salinity intrusion the study found a significant decrease in saltwater influx and increased freshwater volume in the ICZ villages, reflecting a seaward movement trend. Farmer perception shifted to low saline and freshwater in many areas where it was high saline and medium saline in 2010. The factual and perceived salinity were varied from 1 ± 0.44 to 2 ± 0.77 ppt in the studied villages. To confront the condition farmer diversified their farming pattern from single crop like either only shrimp or prawn culture to concurrent culture of shrimp-prawn, shrimp, prawn and rice with an increased production of (68-204 kg/ha), finfish (217-553 kg/ha) and dyke crop (92-800 kg/ha). Thus, affecting the socioeconomic condition of the farmer with an increase in average monthly income, reported for the better-off classes in 2014, ranged from 14,300 to 51,667 BDT and for the worse-off ranged from 5000 to 9900 BDT. In contrast, this average monthly income was 9500- 27,000 for better-off and 3875 - 8600 for worse-off classes, reported in 2010. Besides, farming areas (average 17% for better-off and -0.5% for worse-off) and land leasing (average increment rate per ha 50%) also increased among the surveyed farmers, reported in 2014 compared to 2010. In addition, several adaptation strategies like unrefined salt use, change of water use, diversification through prawn, finfish and dyke crops along with traditional shrimp and overall land use change have a positive impact on farmer's economic and nutritional security as well as farming intensity. The study showed a unique attributes of salinity extrusion in micro-level of ICZ line where farmers intensified farming system with indigenous knowledge to secured their livelihoods.

Adolescent girls in aquaculture ecozones at risk of nutrient deficiency in Bangladesh development and validation of an integrated metric.

BACKGROUND: This study developed and validated an integrated metric that enhances understanding of linkages between agro-ecological and socio-economic factors that are important for explaining nutritional wellbeing in relation to fish consumption; especially among adolescent girls who are at risk of nutritional deficiency in Bangladesh. Currently, there is no metric that takes account of environmental, cultural and economic contexts when considering fish consumption and dietary health from a policy perspective. METHODS: The study was designed as a bi-seasonal survey, repeated in the same population of adolescent girls recruited during the dry and wet seasons. Sampling was stratified by five settings (four aqua-agroecological zones and one processing plant community), with 60 girls recruited in each. Associations between candidate predictors (salinity, diet diversity, religion, socio-economic status and women's autonomy score) and dependent variables representing nutritional outcomes (anthropometry, omega-3 index and micronutrient levels) were explored in multivariable regressions. The fitted model with its predictors was validated, and a risk score derived from responses to a few short questions on religion, salinity zone, female autonomy, diet diversity and tilapia consumption. RESULTS: The omega-3 index showed the clearest distinction between seasons, by salinity and religion. Higher female autonomy, religion (being Hindu rather than Muslim), geographical location (living in a high or mid-saline area), and a higher dietary diversity were the strongest predictors of whole blood omega-3 index. The c-index for the prognostic model was 0.83 and 0.76 in the wet and dry season respectively, indicating good predictive accuracy. There appeared to be a clear trend in risk scores differentiating between those 'chronically at risk' and those 'never at risk'. CONCLUSIONS: Observational data on different aquaculture-ecozones defined by salinity enabled us to establish linkages between seasonal fish intake, religion, diet diversity, female autonomy and nutritional wellbeing. The purpose of the metric is to reveal these specific linkages in practice. This tool should improve targeting of timely, preventative and cost-effective nutritional interventions to adolescent girls most at-risk from low omega-3 levels in communities where seafood is produced.

Four ways blue foods can help achieve food system ambitions across nations.

Blue foods, sourced in aquatic environments, are important for the economies, livelihoods, nutritional security and cultures of people in many nations. They are often nutrient rich1, generate lower emissions and impacts on land and water than many terrestrial meats2, and contribute to the health3, wellbeing and livelihoods of many rural communities4. The Blue Food Assessment recently evaluated nutritional, environmental, economic and justice dimensions of blue foods globally. Here we integrate these findings and translate them into four policy objectives to help realize the contributions that blue foods can make to national food systems around the world: ensuring supplies of critical nutrients, providing healthy alternatives to terrestrial meat, reducing dietary environmental footprints and safeguarding blue food contributions to nutrition, just economies and livelihoods under a changing climate. To account for how context-specific environmental, socio-economic and cultural aspects affect this contribution, we assess the relevance of each policy objective for individual countries, and examine associated co-benefits and trade-offs at national and international scales. We find that in many African and South American nations, facilitating consumption of culturally relevant blue food, especially among nutritionally vulnerable population segments, could address vitamin B12 and omega-3 deficiencies. Meanwhile, in many global North nations, cardiovascular disease rates and large greenhouse gas footprints from ruminant meat intake could be lowered through moderate consumption of seafood with low environmental impact. The analytical framework we provide also identifies countries with high future risk, for whom climate adaptation of blue food systems will be particularly important. Overall the framework helps decision makers to assess the blue food policy objectives most relevant to their geographies, and to compare and contrast the benefits and trade-offs associated with pursuing these objectives.

More Than Fish-Framing Aquatic Animals within Sustainable Food Systems.

Aquatic animals are diverse in terms of species, but also in terms of production systems, the people involved, and the benefits achieved. In this concept piece, we draw on literature to outline how the diversity of aquatic animals, their production, and their consumption all influence their impact within the food system. Built on evidence from an array of reductionist and non-reductionist literature, we suggest that food systems researchers and policymakers adapt current methods and theoretical frameworks to appropriately contextualise aquatic animals in broader food systems. We do this through combining current understandings of food systems theory, value chain, livelihoods, nutritional outcomes, and planetary boundaries thinking. We make several claims around understanding the role of aquatic animals in terms of nutritional output and environmental impacts. We suggest a need to consider: (1) the diversity of species and production methods; (2) variable definitions of an "edible yield"; (3) circular economy principles and the impacts of co-products, and effects beyond nutrient provision; (4) role of aquatic animals in the overall diet; (5) contextual effects of preservation, preparation, cooking, and consumer choices; (6) globalised nature of aquatic animal trade across the value chain; and (7) that aquatic animals are produced from a continuum, rather than a dichotomy, of aquaculture or fisheries. We conclude by proposing a new framework that involves cohesive interdisciplinary discussions around aquatic animal foods and their role in the broader food system.

The Role of Aquaculture and Capture Fisheries in Meeting Food and Nutrition Security: Testing a Nutrition-Sensitive Pond Polyculture Intervention in Rural Zambia.

This study tested the efficacy of a pond polyculture intervention with farming households in northern Zambia. Longitudinal data on fish consumption and the associated nutrient intake of households (N = 57) were collected over a six-month period (September 2019-March 2020). One group of people tested the intervention while another group that practiced monoculture tilapia farming, and a third group that did not practice aquaculture, acted as control groups. A similar quantity of fish was consumed on average; however, the associated nutrient intake differed, based on the quantity and type of species consumed, particularly for those who had access to pelagic small fish from capture fisheries. There was a decrease in fish consumption from December onward due to fisheries management restrictions. The ponds provided access to micronutrient-rich fish during this time. Pond polyculture can act as a complementary source of fish to capture fisheries that are subjected to seasonal controls, as well as to households that farm tilapia. Assessments of how aquatic foods can improve food and nutrition security often separate aquaculture and capture fisheries, failing to account for people who consume fish from diverse sources simultaneously. A nutrition-sensitive approach thus places food and nutrition security, and consumers, at the center of the analysis.

COVID-19 impacts and adaptations in Asia and Africa's aquatic food value chains.

The COVID-19 pandemic is a shock affecting all areas of the global food system. We tracked the impacts of COVID-19 and associated policy responses on the availability and price of aquatic foods and production inputs during 2020, using a high frequency longitudinal survey of 768 respondents in Bangladesh, Egypt, India, Myanmar, Nigeria. We found the following: (1) Aquatic food value chains were severely disrupted but most effects on the availability and accessibility of aquatic foods and production inputs were short-lived. (2) Impacts on demand for aquatic foods, production inputs, and labor have been longer lasting than impacts on their supply. (3) Retail prices of aquatic foods spiked briefly during March-May 2020 but trended down thereafter, whereas prices of production inputs rose. These trends suggest a deepening 'squeeze' on the financial viability of producers and other value chain actors. (4) Survey respondents adapted to the challenges of COVID-19 by reducing production costs, sourcing alternative inputs, diversifying business activities, leveraging social capital, borrowing, seeking alternative employment, and reducing food consumption. Many of these coping strategies are likely to undermine well-being and longer-term resilience, but we also find some evidence of proactive strategies with potential to strengthen business performance. Global production of aquatic food likely contracted significantly in 2020. The importance of aquatic food value chains in supporting livelihoods and food and nutrition security in Asia and Africa makes their revitalization essential in the context of COVID-19 recovery efforts. We outline immediate and longer-term policies and interventions to support this goal.

Emerging COVID-19 impacts, responses, and lessons for building resilience in the seafood system.

The COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdowns are creating health and economic crises that threaten food and nutrition security. The seafood sector provides important sources of nutrition and employment, especially in low-income countries, and is highly globalized allowing shocks to propagate. We studied COVID-19-related disruptions, impacts, and responses to the seafood sector from January through May 2020, using a food system resilience 'action cycle' framework as a guide. We find that some supply chains, market segments, companies, small-scale actors and civil society have shown initial signs of greater resilience than others. COVID-19 has also highlighted the vulnerability of certain groups working in- or dependent on the seafood sector. We discuss early coping and adaptive responses combined with lessons from past shocks that could be considered when building resilience in the sector. We end with strategic research needs to support learning from COVID-19 impacts and responses.

Blue food demand across geographic and temporal scales.

Numerous studies have focused on the need to expand production of 'blue foods', defined as aquatic foods captured or cultivated in marine and freshwater systems, to meet rising population- and income-driven demand. Here we analyze the roles of economic, demographic, and geographic factors and preferences in shaping blue food demand, using secondary data from FAO and The World Bank, parameters from published models, and case studies at national to sub-national scales. Our results show a weak cross-sectional relationship between per capita income and consumption globally when using an aggregate fish metric. Disaggregation by fish species group reveals distinct geographic patterns; for example, high consumption of freshwater fish in China and pelagic fish in Ghana and Peru where these fish are widely available, affordable, and traditionally eaten. We project a near doubling of global fish demand by mid-century assuming continued growth in aquaculture production and constant real prices for fish. Our study concludes that nutritional and environmental consequences of rising demand will depend on substitution among fish groups and other animal source foods in national diets.

Aquatic foods to nourish nations.

Despite contributing to healthy diets for billions of people, aquatic foods are often undervalued as a nutritional solution because their diversity is often reduced to the protein and energy value of a single food type ('seafood' or 'fish')1-4. Here we create a cohesive model that unites terrestrial foods with nearly 3,000 taxa of aquatic foods to understand the future impact of aquatic foods on human nutrition. We project two plausible futures to 2030: a baseline scenario with moderate growth in aquatic animal-source food (AASF) production, and a high-production scenario with a 15-million-tonne increased supply of AASFs over the business-as-usual scenario in 2030, driven largely by investment and innovation in aquaculture production. By comparing changes in AASF consumption between the scenarios, we elucidate geographic and demographic vulnerabilities and estimate health impacts from diet-related causes. Globally, we find that a high-production scenario will decrease AASF prices by 26% and increase their consumption, thereby reducing the consumption of red and processed meats that can lead to diet-related non-communicable diseases5,6 while also preventing approximately 166 million cases of inadequate micronutrient intake. This finding provides a broad evidentiary basis for policy makers and development stakeholders to capitalize on the potential of aquatic foods to reduce food and nutrition insecurity and tackle malnutrition in all its forms.

Systems-thinking approach to identify and assess feasibility of potential interventions to reduce antibiotic use in tilapia farming in Egypt.

Antibiotics are used in aquaculture to maintain the health and welfare of stocks; however, the emergence and selection of antibiotic resistance in bacteria poses threats to humans, animals and the environment. Mitigation of antibiotic resistance relies on understanding the flow of antibiotics, residues, resistant bacteria and resistance genes through interconnecting systems, so that potential solutions can be identified and issues around their implementation evaluated. Participatory systems-thinking can capture the deep complexity of a system while integrating stakeholder perspectives. In this present study, such an approach was applied to Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) production in the Nile Delta of Egypt, where disease events caused by antibiotic-resistant pathogens have been reported. A system map was co-produced with aquaculture stakeholders at a workshop in May 2018 and used to identify hotspots of antibiotic use, exposure and fate and to describe approaches that would promote fish health and thus reduce antibiotic use. Antibiotics are introduced into the aquaculture system via direct application for example in medicated feed, but residues may also be introduced into the system through agricultural drainage water, which is the primary source of water for most fish farms in Egypt. A follow-up survey of stakeholders assessed the perceived feasibility, advantages and disadvantages of potential interventions. Interventions that respondents felt could be implemented in the short-term to reduce antibiotic usage effectively included: more frequent water exchanges, regular monitoring of culture water quality parameters, improved storage conditions for feed, use of probiotics and greater access to farmer and service providers training programmes. Other potential interventions included greater access to suitable and rapid diagnostics, high quality feeds, improved biosecurity measures and genetically-improved fish, but these solutions were expected to be achieved as long-term goals, with cost being of one of the noted barriers to implementation. Identifying feasible and sustainable interventions that can be taken to reduce antibiotic use, and understanding implementation barriers, are important for addressing antibiotic resistance and ensuring the continued efficacy of antibiotics. This is vital to ensuring the productivity of the tilapia sector in Egypt. The approach taken in the present study provides a means to identify points in the system where the effectiveness of interventions can be evaluated and thus it may be applied to other food production systems to combat the problem of antibiotic resistance.

Author Correction: A 20-year retrospective review of global aquaculture.

A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03508-0.

A 20-year retrospective review of global aquaculture.

The sustainability of aquaculture has been debated intensely since 2000, when a review on the net contribution of aquaculture to world fish supplies was published in Nature. This paper reviews the developments in global aquaculture from 1997 to 2017, incorporating all industry sub-sectors and highlighting the integration of aquaculture in the global food system. Inland aquaculture-especially in Asia-has contributed the most to global production volumes and food security. Major gains have also occurred in aquaculture feed efficiency and fish nutrition, lowering the fish-in-fish-out ratio for all fed species, although the dependence on marine ingredients persists and reliance on terrestrial ingredients has increased. The culture of both molluscs and seaweed is increasingly recognized for its ecosystem services; however, the quantification, valuation, and market development of these services remain rare. The potential for molluscs and seaweed to support global nutritional security is underexploited. Management of pathogens, parasites, and pests remains a sustainability challenge industry-wide, and the effects of climate change on aquaculture remain uncertain and difficult to validate. Pressure on the aquaculture industry to embrace comprehensive sustainability measures during this 20-year period have improved the governance, technology, siting, and management in many cases.

Intensification, regulation and diversification: The changing face of inland aquaculture in China.

Trends in aquatic food consumption were matched against farm production surveys within Hubei province and compared to official production data and statistics. Surveys showed that consumer tastes were changing to a much broader aquatic food menu as their spending power increased. Traditional aquaculture species were becoming less profitable due to reduced profit margins as input costs increased and consumption preferences changed. Consequently, many producers were diversifying their production to meet local demand. Some farmers were also de-intensifying by reducing commercial aquafeed inputs and reverting to more traditional methods of dyke-crop culture to optimise trade-offs between input costs and labour, and manage their risk more effectively. In addition, analysis of local data showed that wholesale changes were occurring to aquaculture production as environmental protection legislation took effect which reduced the growing area for carps considerably.

Harnessing the diversity of small-scale actors is key to the future of aquatic food systems.

Small-scale fisheries and aquaculture (SSFA) provide livelihoods for over 100 million people and sustenance for ~1 billion people, particularly in the Global South. Aquatic foods are distributed through diverse supply chains, with the potential to be highly adaptable to stresses and shocks, but face a growing range of threats and adaptive challenges. Contemporary governance assumes homogeneity in SSFA despite the diverse nature of this sector. Here we use SSFA actor profiles to capture the key dimensions and dynamism of SSFA diversity, reviewing contemporary threats and exploring opportunities for the SSFA sector. The heuristic framework can inform adaptive governance actions supporting the diversity and vital roles of SSFA in food systems, and in the health and livelihoods of nutritionally vulnerable people-supporting their viability through appropriate policies whilst fostering equitable and sustainable food systems.