Carbon intensity of global crude oil trading and market policy implications.

The energy mix transition has accelerated the need for more accurate emissions reporting throughout the petroleum supply chain. Despite increasing environmental regulations and pressure for emissions disclosure, the low resolution of existing carbon footprint assessment does not account for the complexity of crude oil trading. The lack of source crude traceability has led to poor visibility into the "well-to-refinery-entrance" carbon intensities at the level of granular pathways between producers and destination markets. Using high-fidelity datasets, optimization algorithms to facilitate supply chain traceability and bottom-up, physics-based emission estimators, we show that the variability in global "well-to-refinery-entrance" carbon intensities at the level of crude trade pathways is significant: 4.2-214.1 kg-CO2-equivalent/barrel with a volume-weighted average of 50.5 kg-CO2-equivalent/barrel. Coupled with oil supply forecasts under 1.5 °C scenarios up to 2050, this variability translates to additional CO2-equivalent savings of 1.5-6.1 Gigatons that could be realized solely by prioritizing low-carbon supply chain pathways without other capital-intensive mitigation measures.

Understanding variability in petroleum jet fuel life cycle greenhouse gas emissions to inform aviation decarbonization.

A pressing challenge facing the aviation industry is to aggressively reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the face of increasing demand for aviation fuels. Climate goals such as carbon-neutral growth from 2020 onwards require continuous improvements in technology, operations, infrastructure, and most importantly, reductions in aviation fuel life cycle emissions. The Carbon Offsetting Scheme for International Aviation of the International Civil Aviation Organization provides a global market-based measure to group all possible emissions reduction measures into a joint program. Using a bottom-up, engineering-based modeling approach, this study provides the first estimates of life cycle greenhouse gas emissions from petroleum jet fuel on regional and global scales. Here we show that not all petroleum jet fuels are the same as the country-level life cycle emissions of petroleum jet fuels range from 81.1 to 94.8 gCO2e MJ-1, with a global volume-weighted average of 88.7 gCO2e MJ-1. These findings provide a high-resolution baseline against which sustainable aviation fuel and other emissions reduction opportunities can be prioritized to achieve greater emissions reductions faster.

Life Cycle GHG Perspective on U.S. Natural Gas Delivery Pathways.

Recent emission measurement campaigns have improved our understanding of the total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions across the natural gas supply chain, the individual components that contribute to these emissions, and how these emissions vary geographically. However, our current understanding of natural gas supply chain emissions does not account for the linkages between specific production basins and consumers. This work provides a detailed life cycle perspective on how GHG emissions vary according to where natural gas is produced and where it is delivered. This is accomplished by disaggregating transmission and distribution infrastructure into six regions, balancing natural gas supply and demand locations to infer the likely pathways between production and delivery, and incorporating new data on distribution meters. The average transmission distance for U.S. natural gas is 815 km but ranges from 45 to 3000 km across estimated production-to-delivery pairings. In terms of 100-year global warming potentials, the delivery of one megajoule (MJ) of natural gas to the Pacific region has the highest mean life cycle GHG emissions (13.0 g CO2e/MJ) and the delivery of natural gas to the Northeast U.S. has the lowest mean life cycle GHG emissions (8.1 g CO2e/MJ). The cradle-to-delivery scenarios developed in this work show that a national average does not adequately represent the upstream GHG emission intensity for natural gas from a specific basin or delivered to a specific consumer.

Comparative Life Cycle Evaluation of the Global Warming Potential (GWP) Impacts of Renewable Natural Gas Production Pathways.

Renewable natural gas (RNG) sources are being considered in future energy strategy discussions as potential replacements for fossil natural gas (FNG). While today's supply of RNG resources is insufficient to meet U.S. demands, there is significant interest in its viability to supplement and decarbonize the natural gas supply. However, the studies compare the life cycle global warming potential (GWP) of various RNG production pathways are lacking and focus mostly on a singular pathway. This effort is an attempt to close this gap and provide a comparison between the life cycle GWP of three major RNG pathways and the FNG pathway. The three RNG pathways evaluated are anaerobic digestion (AD), thermal gasification (TG), and power-to-gas (P2G) using various feedstocks. The functional unit is 1 MJ of compressed RNG ready for injection into the natural gas transmission network. The results show that RNG production is not always carbon neutral or negative. Depending on the pathway, the GWP impact of RNG production can range from -229 to 27 g CO2e/MJ compressed RNG, with AD of animal manure and AD of municipal solid waste being the least and the most impactful pathways, respectively, compared to the 10.1 g CO2e/MJ impact for compressed FNG.

Characterizing Regional Methane Emissions from Natural Gas Liquid Unloading.

A "bottom-up" probabilistic model was developed using engineering first-principles to quantify annualized throughput normalized methane emissions (TNME) from natural gas liquid unloading activities for 18 basins in the United States in 2016. For each basin, six discrete liquid-unloading scenarios are considered, consisting of combinations of well types (conventional and unconventional) and liquid-unloading systems (nonplunger, manual plunger lift, and automatic plunger lift). Analysis reveals that methane emissions from liquids unloading are highly variable, with mean TNMEs ranging from 0.0093% to 0.38% across basins. Automatic plunger-lift systems are found to have significantly higher per-well methane emissions rates relative to manual plunger-lift or non-plunger systems and on average constitute 28% of annual methane emissions from liquids unloading over all basins despite representing only ∼0.43% of total natural gas well count. While previous work has advocated that operational malfunctions and abnormal process conditions explain the existence of super-emitters in the natural gas supply chain, this work finds that super-emitters can arise naturally due to variability in underlying component processes. Additionally, average cumulative methane emissions from liquids unloading, attributed to the natural gas supply chain, across all basins are ∼4.8 times higher than those inferred from the 2016 Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program (GHGRP). Our new model highlights the importance of technological disaggregation, uncertainty quantification, and regionalization in estimating episodic methane emissions from liquids unloading. These insights can help reconcile discrepancies between "top-down" (regional or atmospheric studies) and "bottom-up" (component or facility-level) studies.

Evaluating the climate benefits of CO2-enhanced oil recovery using life cycle analysis.

This study uses life cycle analysis (LCA) to evaluate the greenhouse gas (GHG) performance of carbon dioxide (CO2) enhanced oil recovery (EOR) systems. A detailed gate-to-gate LCA model of EOR was developed and incorporated into a cradle-to-grave boundary with a functional unit of 1 MJ of combusted gasoline. The cradle-to-grave model includes two sources of CO2: natural domes and anthropogenic (fossil power equipped with carbon capture). A critical parameter is the crude recovery ratio, which describes how much crude is recovered for a fixed amount of purchased CO2. When CO2 is sourced from a natural dome, increasing the crude recovery ratio decreases emissions, the opposite is true for anthropogenic CO2. When the CO2 is sourced from a power plant, the electricity coproduct is assumed to displace existing power. With anthropogenic CO2, increasing the crude recovery ratio reduces the amount of CO2 required, thereby reducing the amount of power displaced and the corresponding credit. Only the anthropogenic EOR cases result in emissions lower than conventionally produced crude. This is not specific to EOR, rather the fact that carbon-intensive electricity is being displaced with captured electricity, and the fuel produced from that system receives a credit for this displacement.