Association between secondhand smoke exposure and incident heart failure: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).

AIMS: There are no studies on the association between secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure and incident heart failure (HF). This cohort study aimed to examine the associations of self-reported and urinary cotinine-assessed SHS exposure with incident HF. METHODS AND RESULTS: This study included 5548 non-active smoking participants aged 45-84 years and free of known cardiovascular diseases and HF at baseline who self-reported SHS exposure time in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) at baseline (2000-2002). A cohort subset of 3376 non-active smoking participants underwent urinary cotinine measurements. HF events were verified by medical records or death certificates and ascertained from baseline through 2019. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used with adjustment for demographic variables, traditional cardiovascular risk factors, physical activity, tobacco pack-years and medications. During a median follow-up of 17.7 years, 353 and 196 HF events were identified in the self-report cohort and cohort subset, respectively. In the self-report cohort, compared with the SHS unexposed group (0 h/week), the highest tertile of the SHS exposed group (7-168 h/week) was not associated with incident HF (hazard ratio [HR] 0.70, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.49-1.00; p = 0.052). In contrast, in the cohort subset, participants with detectable urinary cotinine >7.07 ng/ml had a higher risk of incident HF than those with undetectable urinary cotinine ≤7.07 ng/ml (HR 1.45, 95% CI 1.03-2.06; p = 0.034). There were no significant heterogeneities in HF risk by age, sex, race/ethnicity, or past smoking status. CONCLUSION: Secondhand smoke exposure reflected by modestly increased urinary cotinine (>7.07 ng/ml) rather than self-report in non-active smokers was associated with a 40-50% higher risk of any HF event.

Androgenicity in Young Women and Development of Metabolic Syndrome Before Menopause: The CARDIA and CARDIA Women's Studies.

Context: There are no reported data from prospective long-term studies on the relation of androgen levels in young women with development of metabolic syndrome (MetS) before menopause. Objective: We investigated associations of androgens and SHBG with incident MetS during 23 years of follow-up. Methods: We included 366 White and 375 Black women ages 20 to 32 years participating in the CARDIA study and CARDIA Women's study, free of MetS at baseline examination (1987-1988), and premenopausal 23 years later. Androgens and SHBG were categorized into quartiles. MetS was defined according to the American Heart Association/National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute 2009 Joint Scientific Statement. Cox proportional hazards models were used. Results: By year 23, 30% of women developed MetS. Adjusting for baseline age, race, and education, hazard ratios (95% CI) of developing MetS were 1.46 (1.02-2.10) and 2.22 (1.53-3.21) for women in the highest vs lowest total testosterone (T) and free T quartile, respectively. The hazards of developing MetS were 47%, 59%, and 53% lower for women with SHBG in the second, third, and fourth quartiles (vs lowest quartile), respectively. Associations were attenuated for total T with further adjustments for smoking, physical activity, menstrual status, oral contraceptive/hormone (OCHM) use, insulin level, oligomenorrhea, and age at menarche, but remained statistically significant for free T and SHBG. Associations were similar for both Blacks and Whites, and OCHM nonusers, but not for OCHM users. Conclusion: High androgenicity in young premenopausal women is associated with higher risk of future MetS, suggesting that early assessment of androgens may contribute to prevention.

Cumulative BMI and incident prediabetes over 30 years of follow-up: The CARDIA study.

OBJECTIVE: This study examined how cumulative BMI (cBMI) is associated with incident prediabetes in a biracial observational cohort study followed from young adulthood to middle age. METHODS: Black and White men and women (n = 4190) from the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study, ages 18 to 30 years in 1985 to 1986 and free of prediabetes or diabetes at baseline, were followed for 30 years. Cox regression was used to determine how cBMI was associated with incident prediabetes after controlling for traditional cardiovascular risk factors. RESULTS: Over 30 years of follow-up, 46.2% of the sample developed prediabetes. Mean cBMI was 801.4 BMI-years for those with prediabetes and 658.3 BMI-years for those without (p < 0.0001). After multivariable adjustment, the hazard rate ratio for the highest cBMI quartile was 2.064 (95% CI: 1.793-2.377) relative to the lowest quartile. The second and third quartiles did not differ from the first quartile, consistent with a nonlinear trend. CONCLUSIONS: The cumulative burden of higher weight and longer duration was associated with incident prediabetes, but this association was statistically significant only after a higher threshold was reached. Strategies for prevention of prediabetes in middle age may focus on avoiding overweight in young adulthood to limit duration.

Association between Biomarkers of Inflammation and 10-Year Changes in Aortic Stiffness: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

Background. Chronic inflammation is associated with incident cardiovascular events. We study the association between biomarkers of inflammation and subclinical vascular dysfunction measured as proximal aortic stiffness. Methods. MRI imaging was performed in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) at baseline (2000) and at the 10-year follow-up. Aortic arch pulse wave velocity (PWV) and ascending and descending aorta distensibility (AAD, DAD) were measured in 1223 asymptomatic individuals at both exams. Linear regression was used to study the association of baseline inflammation-C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6 (IL6), and fibrinogen (Fib)-with baseline and 10-year changes in aortic stiffness (PWV, AAD, DAD). Results. The mean age of the participants was 59 ± 9 years, 47.8% of them were men, 32.6% were hypertensive at baseline, and 7.6% were diabetic. At baseline and follow-up, the mean AAD values were, respectively, 1.73 × 10-3 mmHg-1 and 1.57 × 10-3 mmHg-1, the mean DAD values were 2.19 × 10-3 mmHg-1 and 1.99 × 10-3 mmHg-1, and the mean PWV values were 8.10 m/s and 8.99 m/s. At baseline, the AAD (in 10-3 mmHg-1) and DAD (in 10-3 mmHg-1) were inversely associated with CRP (in mg/L) (AAD coeff: -0.047, p-value: 0.011, DAD coeff: -0.068, p-value: <0.001) and IL6 (in pg/mL) (AAD coeff: -0.098, p-value: 0.003, DAD coeff: -0.14, p-value: <0.001) in a univariable analysis but not after adjustment for demographic variables or cardiovascular risk factors. The baseline DAD was inversely associated with Fib (in mg/dL) (coeff: -0.334, p-value: 0.001). The baseline PWV (in m/s) was positively associated with IL6 (in pg/mL) in a univariable analysis (coeff: 0.054, p-value: 0.014). In a longitudinal analysis, the 10-year changes in DAD were inversely associated with CRP, even after adjustment for demographics and risk factors (DAD coeff: -0.08, p-value 0.044). Conclusions. Higher CRP levels at baseline were independently associated with a 10-year increase in aortic stiffness, measured as decreased aortic distensibility.

Comparison of State-of-the-Art Neural Network Survival Models with the Pooled Cohort Equations for Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction.

BACKGROUND: The Pooled Cohort Equations (PCEs) are race- and sex-specific Cox proportional hazards (PH)-based models used for 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk prediction with acceptable discrimination. In recent years, neural network models have gained increasing popularity with their success in image recognition and text classification. Various survival neural network models have been proposed by combining survival analysis and neural network architecture to take advantage of the strengths from both. However, the performance of these survival neural network models compared to each other and to PCEs in ASCVD prediction is unknown. METHODS: In this study, we used 6 cohorts from the Lifetime Risk Pooling Project (with 5 cohorts as training/internal validation and one cohort as external validation) and compared the performance of the PCEs in 10-year ASCVD risk prediction with an all two-way interactions Cox PH model (Cox PH-TWI) and three state-of-the-art neural network survival models including Nnet-survival, Deepsurv, and Cox-nnet. For all the models, we used the same 7 covariates as used in the PCEs. We fitted each of the aforementioned models in white females, white males, black females, and black males, respectively. We evaluated models' internal and external discrimination power and calibration. RESULTS: The training/internal validation sample comprised 23216 individuals. The average age at baseline was 57.8 years old (SD = 9.6); 16% developed ASCVD during average follow-up of 10.50 (SD = 3.02) years. Based on 10 × 10 cross-validation, the method that had the highest C-statistics was Deepsurv (0.7371) for white males, Deepsurv and Cox PH-TWI (0.7972) for white females, PCE (0.6981) for black males, and Deepsurv (0.7886) for black females. In the external validation dataset, Deepsurv (0.7032), Cox-nnet (0.7282), PCE (0.6811), and Deepsurv (0.7316) had the highest C-statistics for white male, white female, black male, and black female population, respectively. Calibration plots showed that in 10 × 10 validation, all models had good calibration in all race and sex groups. In external validation, all models overestimated the risk for 10-year ASCVD. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated the use of the state-of-the-art neural network survival models in ASCVD risk prediction. Neural network survival models had similar if not superior discrimination and calibration compared to PCEs.

Secondhand tobacco smoke exposure, urine cotinine, and risk of incident atrial fibrillation: The multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Secondhand tobacco smoke (SHS) exposure may reduce heart rate variability and lead to atrial fibrillation (AF); however prior study findings have not been confirmed using objective measures for both SHS and AF events. METHODS: We prospectively examined the association between SHS exposure and incident AF in 5731 participants, ages of 45-84 years and free of known AF and other cardiovascular diseases (CVD) at baseline (2000-2002), who were followed through 2015 in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). SHS weekly exposure time was identified by self-report. Urine cotinine was collected in a cohort subset of 3237 current non-smoking cohort participants. AF events were identified using Medicare claims, hospital records, and 12­lead electrocardiographic findings. A multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used with simultaneous adjustment for demographic factors, educational level, health insurance status, active smoking status, tobacco pack-years, traditional CVD risk factors, depressive symptoms and medications. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 14.0 years, 856 and 452 AF events were identified in the overall and the cohort subset, respectively. No association of SHS exposure time or urine cotinine with incident AF was observed. However, a higher AF risk with greater urine cotinine (8.53-442.0 ng/mL) compared with lower urine cotinine (≤7.07 ng/mL) was observed in never smokers [hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals: 1.60 (1.16, 2.19)], but not in former smokers [HR: 0.88 (0.63, 1.23)] (p-value for multiplicative interaction: 0.009 and for additive interaction: 0.017, respectively). CONCLUSION: Objectively measured greater SHS exposure expressed by urine cotinine might be associated with 1.6-fold higher risk of incident AF in never smokers.

Risk Factors for Incident Coronary Artery Calcium in Younger (Age 32 to 45 Years) Versus Intermediate (46 to 64 Years) Versus Older (65 to 84 Years) Persons.

The prognostic value of traditional atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk factors may decrease with age. We sought to determine whether the association between traditional ASCVD risk factors and incident coronary artery calcium (CAC) differs for younger versus older persons. We included 5,108 participants with baseline CAC = 0. Repeat CAC scoring occurred over 3 to 11 years of follow-up. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression assessed the association between traditional risk factors and incident CAC in young (32 to 45 years), middle-aged (46 to 64 years), and older adults (65 to 84 years). A total of 61% of the participants were women and 37% were Black. The proportion with incident CAC ranged from 22% among young adults, 34% for middle-aged adults, and 45% for older adults. In young adults, traditional risk factors were significantly associated with incident CAC except for diastolic blood pressure and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, whereas only total cholesterol/HDL cholesterol ≥3.5 (p = 0.04) was significantly associated with incident CAC in older persons. Non-HDL cholesterol (p = 0.02) was more strongly associated with incident CAC in young (hazard ratio [HR] 1.20, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.09 to 1.31) and middle aged (HR 1.14, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.23) compared to older adults (HR 1.11, 95% CI 0.99 to 1.23). When added to demographics, traditional risk factors provided a greater C-statistic improvement for incident CAC prediction in young (0.752, +0.070, p <0.001) versus middle-aged (0.645, +0.054, p <0.001) and older adults (0.597,+0.025, p = 0.08). In conclusion, traditional risk factors more strongly predict incident CAC in young compared to older adults, underlining the importance of primordial prevention through middle age while identifying the challenges of ASCVD risk assessment in older persons.

Association of Body Mass Index in Midlife With Morbidity Burden in Older Adulthood and Longevity.

Importance: Abundant evidence links obesity with adverse health consequences. However, controversies persist regarding whether overweight status compared with normal body mass index (BMI; calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared) is associated with longer survival and whether this occurs at the expense of greater long-term morbidity and health care expenditures. Objective: To examine the association of BMI in midlife with morbidity burden, longevity, and health care expenditures in adults 65 years and older. Design, Setting, and Participants: Prospective cohort study at the Chicago Heart Association Detection Project in Industry, with baseline in-person examination between November 1967 and January 1973 linked with Medicare follow-up between January 1985 and December 2015. Participants included 29 621 adults who were at least age 65 years in follow-up and enrolled in Medicare. Data were analyzed from January 2020 to December 2021. Exposures: Standard BMI categories. Main Outcomes and Measures: (1) Morbidity burden at 65 years and older assessed with the Gagne combined comorbidity score (ranging from -2 to 26, with higher score associated with higher mortality), which is a well-validated index based on International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes for use in administrative data sets; (2) longevity (age at death); and (3) health care costs based on Medicare linkage in older adulthood (aged ≥65 years). Results: Among 29 621 participants, mean (SD) age was 40 (12) years, 57.1% were men, and 9.1% were Black; 46.0% had normal BMI, 39.6% were overweight, and 11.9% had classes I and II obesity at baseline. Higher cumulative morbidity burden in older adulthood was observed among those who were overweight (7.22 morbidity-years) and those with classes I and II obesity (9.80) compared with those with a normal BMI (6.10) in midlife (P < .001). Mean age at death was similar between those who were overweight (82.1 years [95% CI, 81.9-82.2 years]) and those who had normal BMI (82.3 years [95% CI, 82.1-82.5 years]) but shorter in those who with classes I and II obesity (80.8 years [95% CI, 80.5-81.1 years]). The proportion (SE) of life-years lived in older adulthood with Gagne score of at least 1 was 0.38% (0.00%) in those with a normal BMI, 0.41% (0.00%) in those with overweight, and 0.43% (0.01%) in those with classes I and II obesity. Cumulative median per-person health care costs in older adulthood were significantly higher among overweight participants ($12 390 [95% CI, $10 427 to $14 354]) and those with classes I and II obesity ($23 396 [95% CI, $18 474 to $28 319]) participants compared with those with a normal BMI (P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, overweight in midlife, compared with normal BMI, was associated with higher cumulative burden of morbidity and greater proportion of life lived with morbidity in the context of similar longevity. These findings translated to higher total health care expenditures in older adulthood for those who were overweight in midlife.

Pulmonary Function in Midlife as a Predictor of Later-Life Cognition: The Coronary Artery Risk Development in Adults (CARDIA) Study.

BACKGROUND: Studies found associations between pulmonary function (PF) and cognition, but these are limited by mostly cross-sectional design and a single measure of PF (typically forced expiratory volume in 1 second [FEV1]). Our objective was to prospectively analyze the association of repeatedly measured PF with cognition. METHODS: We studied 3 499 participants in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults cohort with cognition measured at year 25 (Y25) and Y30, and PF (FEV1 and forced vital capacity [FVC], reflecting better PF) measured up to 6 times from Y0 to Y20. Cognition was measured via Stroop test, Rey-Auditory Verbal Learning Test [RAVLT], and digit symbol substitution test [DSST], which capture executive function, verbal learning and memory, and attention and psychomotor speed, respectively; lower Stroop, and higher RAVLT and DSST scores indicate better cognition. We modeled linear, cross-sectional associations between cognition and PF at Y30 (mean age 55), and mixed models to examine associations between cognition at Y25-Y30 and longitudinal PF (both annual rate of change, and cumulative PF from Y0 to Y20). RESULTS: At Y30, FEV1 and FVC were cross-sectionally associated with all 3 measures of cognition (ß = 0.08-0.12, p < .01-.02). Annual change from peak FEV1/FVC ratio was associated with Stroop and DSST (ß = 18.06, 95% CI = 7.71-28.40; ß = 10.30, 95% CI = 0.26-20.34, respectively), but not RAVLT. Cumulative FEV1 and FVC were associated with Stroop and DSST (ß = 0.07-0.12, p < .01-.02), but only cumulative FEV1 was associated with RAVLT (ß = 0.07, 95% CI = 0.00-0.14). CONCLUSIONS: We identified prospective associations between measures of PF and cognition even at middle ages, adding evidence of a prospective association between reduced PF and cognitive decline.

Clinical and biomarker modifiers of vitamin D treatment response: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Different 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] thresholds for treatment with vitamin D supplementation have been suggested and are derived almost exclusively from observational studies. Whether other characteristics, including race/ethnicity, BMI, and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), should also influence the threshold for treatment is unknown. OBJECTIVES: The aim was to identify clinical and biomarker characteristics that modify the response to vitamin D supplementation. METHODS: A total of 666 older adults in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) were randomly assigned to 16 wk of oral vitamin D3 (2000 IU/d; n = 499) or placebo (n = 167). Primary outcomes were changes in serum parathyroid hormone (PTH) and 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D [1,25(OH)2D] concentrations from baseline to 16 wk. RESULTS: Among 666 participants randomly assigned (mean age: 72 y; 53% female; 66% racial/ethnic minority), 611 (92%) completed the study. The mean (SD) change in PTH was -3 (16) pg/mL with vitamin D3 compared with 2 (18) pg/mL with placebo (estimated mean difference: -5; 95% CI: -8, -2 pg/mL). Within the vitamin D3 group, lower baseline 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] was associated with a larger decline in PTH in a nonlinear fashion. With baseline 25(OH)D ≥30 ng/mL as the reference, 25(OH)D <20 ng/mL was associated with a larger decline in PTH with vitamin D3 supplementation (-10; 95% CI: -15, -6 pg/mL), whereas 25(OH)D of 20-30 ng/mL was not (-2; 95% CI: -6, 1 pg/mL). A segmented threshold model identified a baseline 25(OH)D concentration of 21 (95% CI: 13, 31) ng/mL as an inflection point for difference in change in PTH. Race/ethnicity, BMI, and eGFR did not modify vitamin D treatment response. There was no significant change in 1,25(OH)2D in either treatment group. CONCLUSIONS: Of characteristics most commonly associated with vitamin D metabolism, only baseline 25(OH)D <20 ng/mL modified the PTH response to vitamin D supplementation, providing support from a clinical trial to use this threshold to define insufficiency. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT02925195.

Association of Overactive Bladder With Hypertension and Blood Pressure Control: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).

BACKGROUND: The sudden urge to urinate, also known as overactive bladder (OAB), may reflect higher sympathetic activity and associate with higher blood pressure (BP). METHODS: This cross-sectional analysis utilized data from sixth follow-up exam (2015-2016) of Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis to examine the association of OAB with systolic (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) levels, hypertension, and BP control. Information on urinary symptoms was obtained with the International Consultation on Incontinence Questionnaire (ICIQ). Sex-stratified regression models were constructed to examine differences in BP, hypertension prevalence, and BP control while adjusting for demographic factors, comorbidities, and medication use. RESULTS: Among the 1,446 men and 1,628 women who completed the ICIQ (mean age 73.7 years [SD 8.4]), OAB was present in 31.6% of men and 38.9% of women. With no antihypertensive medication use, OAB was not associated with SBP or DBP in both men and women after adjusting for covariates. However, among the 894 men and 981 women on antihypertensive medication, OAB was associated with higher SBP among men (4.04 mm Hg; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02, 7.06) but not among women (-0.67 mm Hg; 95% CI -3.79, 2.46) while DBP did not differ by OAB presence in men or women. In addition, OAB was also associated with lower odds of BP control among men (odds ratio [OR] 0.69; 95% CI 0.49, 0.96) but not women (OR 0.96; 95% CI 0.71, 1.30). CONCLUSIONS: Among men, OAB is associated with lower odds of BP control which suggests that OAB may impede hypertension management.

Pre-diagnostic predictors of mortality in patients with heart failure: The multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis.

Background: There are multiple predictive factors for cardiovascular (CV) mortality measured at, or after heart failure (HF) diagnosis. However, the predictive role of long-term exposure to these predictors prior to HF diagnosis is unknown. Objectives: We aim to identify predictive factors of CV mortality in participants with HF, using cumulative exposure to risk factors before HF development. Methods: Participants of Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) with incident HF were included. We used stepwise Akaike Information Criterion to select CV mortality predictors among clinical, biochemical, and imaging markers collected prior to HF. Using the AUC of B-spline-corrected curves, we estimated cumulative exposure to predictive factors from baseline to the last exam before HF. The prognostic performance for CV mortality after HF was evaluated using competing risk regression with non-CV mortality as the competing risk. Results: Overall, 375 participants had new HF events (42.9% female, mean age: 74). Over an average follow-up of 4.7 years, there was no difference in the hazard of CV death for HF with reduced versus preserved ejection fraction (HR = 1.27, p = 0.23). The selected predictors of CV mortality in models with the least prediction error were age, cardiac arrest, myocardial infarction, and diabetes, QRS duration, HDL, cumulative exposure to total cholesterol and glucose, NT-proBNP, left ventricular mass, and statin use. The AUC of the models were 0.72 when including the latest exposure to predictive factors and 0.79 when including cumulative prior exposure to predictive factors (p = 0.20). Conclusion: In HF patients, besides age and diagnosed diabetes or CVD, prior lipid profile, NT-proBNP, LV mass, and QRS duration available at the diagnosis time strongly predict CV mortality. Implementing cumulative exposure to cholesterol and glucose, instead of latest measures, improves predictive accuracy for HF mortality, though not reaching statistical significance.

Age and sex disparities in hypertension control: The multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis (MESA).

OBJECTIVE: Determine sex differences in hypertension control by age group in a diverse cohort of adults age 45-84 years at baseline followed for an average of 12 years. METHODS: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis enrolled 3213 men and 3601 women from six communities in the U.S. during years 2000-2002 with follow-up exams completed approximately every two years. At each exam, resting blood pressure (BP) was measured in triplicate, and the last two values were averaged. Hypertension was defined as a BP ≥ 140/90 mmHg and/or use of antihypertensive medications. Hypertension control was defined as a BP < 140/90 mmHg and in separate analyses as < 130/90 mmHg. Generalized linear mixed effects models with a binomial function were used to calculate the odds of hypertension control by age group (45-64,75-74, 75+) at a given exam and by sex, while accounting for the intra-individual correlation, and adjustment for demographics, co-morbidities, smoking, alcohol use, education and site among participants with hypertension at any of the first five exams. RESULTS: At baseline, mean age was 64.1 (9.1 [SD]) years, 48.0% were men, and race/ethnicity was Non-Hispanic white in 34.1%, 10.1% Chinese, 35.1% Non-Hispanic Black and 20.7% Hispanic. Average SBP was lower while average DBP was higher among men vs. women at each exam. Adjusted odds ratios of hypertension control defined as BP < 140/90 mmHg among men vs. women was 0.89 (95% CI 0.67, 1.19) for age 45-64 years, 1.37 (95% CI 1.04, 1.81) for age 65-74 years and 2.08 (95% CI 1.43, 3.02) for age 75+ years. When defined as < 130/80 mmHg, adjusted odds of hypertension control among men vs. women was 0.60 (OR 0.60; 95% CI 0.46, 0.79) at age 45-64 years, 1.01 (OR 1.01; 95% CI 0.77, 1.31) at age 65-74 years and 1.71 (95% CI 1.19, 2.45) at age 75+ years. CONCLUSION: Sex disparities in hypertension control increase with advancing age and are greatest among adults age 75+ years.

Epigenetic Age Acceleration Reflects Long-Term Cardiovascular Health.

[Figure: see text].

Assessment of Coronary Artery Calcium Scoring to Guide Statin Therapy Allocation According to Risk-Enhancing Factors: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

Importance: The 2018 American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology Guideline on the Management of Blood Cholesterol recommends the use of risk-enhancing factor assessment and the selective use of coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring to guide the allocation of statin therapy among individuals with an intermediate risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Objective: To examine the association between risk-enhancing factors and incident ASCVD by CAC burden among those at intermediate risk of ASCVD. Design, Setting, and Participants: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis is a multicenter population-based prospective cross-sectional study conducted in the US. Baseline data for the present study were collected between July 15, 2000, and July 14, 2002, and follow-up for incident ASCVD events was ascertained through August 20, 2015. Participants were aged 45 to 75 years with no clinical ASCVD or diabetes at baseline, were at intermediate risk of ASCVD (≥7.5% to <20.0%), and had a low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level of 70 to 189 mg/dL. Exposures: Family history of premature ASCVD, premature menopause, metabolic syndrome, chronic kidney disease, lipid and inflammatory biomarkers, and low ankle-brachial index. Main Outcomes and Measures: Incident ASCVD over a median follow-up of 12.0 years. Results: A total of 1688 participants (mean [SD] age, 65 [6] years; 976 men [57.8%]). Of those, 648 individuals (38.4%) were White, 562 (33.3%) were Black, 305 (18.1%) were Hispanic, and 173 (10.2%) were Chinese American. A total of 722 participants (42.8%) had a CAC score of 0. Among those with 1 to 2 risk-enhancing factors vs those with 3 or more risk-enhancing factors, the prevalence of a CAC score of 0 was 45.7% vs 40.3%, respectively. Over a median follow-up of 12.0 years (interquartile range [IQR], 11.5-12.6 years), the unadjusted incidence rate of ASCVD among those with a CAC score of 0 was less than 7.5 events per 1000 person-years for all individual risk-enhancing factors (with the exception of ankle-brachial index, for which the incidence rate was 10.4 events per 1000 person-years [95% CI, 1.5-73.5]) and combinations of risk-enhancing factors, including participants with 3 or more risk-enhancing factors. Although the individual and composite addition of risk-enhancing factors to the traditional risk factors was associated with improvement in the area under the receiver operating curve, the use of CAC scoring was associated with the greatest improvement in the C statistic (0.633 vs 0.678) for ASCVD events. For incident ASCVD, the net reclassification improvement for CAC was 0.067. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study, among participants with CAC scores of 0, the presence of risk-enhancing factors was generally not associated with an overall ASCVD risk that was higher than the recommended treatment threshold for the initiation of statin therapy. The use of CAC scoring was associated with significant improvements in the reclassification and discrimination of incident ASCVD. The results of this study support the utility of CAC scoring as an adjunct to risk-enhancing factor assessment to more accurately classify individuals with an intermediate risk of ASCVD who might benefit from statin therapy.

Urinary sodium and potassium excretions in young adulthood and blood pressure by middle age: the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) Study.

OBJECTIVE: Data are sparse regarding the impact of sodium and potassium intakes on serial blood pressure (BP) levels during long-term follow-up. METHODS: Among 1007 Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults participants (mean age, 30.2 years; 53% blacks; 57% women) who had at least two 24-h urine samples collected at year 5 (Y5) examination, we assessed associations of urinary sodium and potassium excretions with BP trends and incident hypertension in the subsequent 25 years. Participants were classified by sex-specific medians for averaged 24-h urinary excretions: lower sodium and higher potassium (Na-Lo-K-Hi); higher sodium and lower potassium (Na-Hi-K-Lo); and others. RESULTS: In the adjusted generalized estimating equation model, SBP and DBP greatly increased in the Na-Hi-K-Lo group (n = 185) compared with the Na-Lo-K-Hi group (n = 185), with statistically significant BP differences at Y20, Y25, and Y30 (mean SBP, 3.93, 4.94, and 4.88 mmHg, respectively; and mean DBP, 4.70, 4.95, and 4.59 mmHg, respectively). During 25-year follow-up, among 926 participants without prevalent hypertension by Y5, 381 (41.1%) developed hypertension. In the adjusted Cox proportional hazards model, the Na-Hi-K-Lo group had hazard ratio (95% confidence interval), 1.45 (1.00-2.10) for incident hypertension compared with the Na-Lo-K-Hi group. The association with incident hypertension was predominant in blacks and white women (race--sex interaction, P = 0.03). Sodium-to-potassium ratio and sodium excretion were positively, whereas potassium excretion was inversely, associated with incident hypertension (all P trend <0.05). CONCLUSION: Our findings highlight the importance of dietary sodium reduction and higher potassium intake for hypertension prevention among young adults.

Does Lowering Low-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol With Statin Restore Low Risk in Middle-Aged Adults? Analysis of the Observational MESA Study.

Background It is unclear if statin therapy in midlife can restore low cardiovascular risk in hypercholesterolemic individuals. Methods and Results At baseline, we grouped 5687 MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) participants aged ≥50 years without clinical cardiovascular disease (CVD) by Adult Treatment Panel III statin treatment recommendation and statin treatment status. We used Cox regression to compare the risks for coronary heart disease and CVD between the untreated group with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) <100 mg/dL (reference) and other groups, adjusting for CVD risk factors. We also grouped participants by LDL-C level (< or ≥100 mg/dL), coronary artery calcium score (0 or >0 Agatston units), and statin status (untreated or treated) with the untreated LDL-C <100 mg/dL and coronary artery calcium=0 Agatston units as the reference. There were 567 coronary heart disease and 848 CVD events over 15 years of follow-up. The hazard ratios (HRs) for coronary heart disease and CVD in the group with statin-treated LDL-C <100 mg/dL were 1.16 (95% CI, 0.85-1.58) and 1.02 (95% CI, 0.78-1.32), respectively. However, participants with coronary artery calcium >0 Agatston units, treated to LDL-C <100 mg/dL had HRs of 2.6 (95% CI, 1.7-4.2) for coronary heart disease and 1.8 (95% CI, 1.2-2.6) for CVD. Conclusions Individuals treated with statins to LDL-C <100 mg/dL had similar levels of risk for atherosclerotic CVD as individuals with untreated LDL-C <100 mg/dL. However, individuals with coronary artery calcium >0 Agatston units have substantially higher risks despite lipid-lowering therapy, suggesting that statin treatment in midlife may not restore a low-risk state in primary prevention patients with established coronary atherosclerosis.

Association of Pro-B-Type Natriuretic Peptide With Cardiac Magnetic Resonance-Measured Global and Regional Cardiac Function and Structure Over 10 Years: The MESA Study.

Background NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) is widely used to diagnose and manage patients with heart failure. We aimed to investigate associations between NT-proBNP levels and development of global and regional myocardial impairment, dyssynchrony, and risk of developing myocardial scar over time. Methods and Results We included 2416 adults (45-84 years) without baseline clinical cardiovascular disease from MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis). NT-proBNP was assessed at baseline (2000-2002). Cardiac magnetic resonance-measured left ventricular parameters were assessed at baseline and year 10 (2010-2012). Tagged cardiac magnetic resonance and myocardial dyssynchrony were assessed. We used linear and logistic regression models to study the relationships between quartiles of NT-proBNP levels and outcome variables. Left ventricular parameters decreased over time. After 10-year follow-up and adjusting for cardiovascular disease risk factors, people in the highest quartile had significantly greater decline in left ventricular ejection fraction (-1.60%; 95% CI, -2.26 to -0.94; P<0.01) and smaller decline in left ventricular end systolic volume index (-0.47 mL/m2; 95% CI, -1.18 to 0.23; P<0.01) compared with those in the lowest quartile. Individuals in the highest quartile had more severe risk factor adjusted global, mid, and apical regional dyssynchrony compared with those in the lowest, second, and third quartiles (all P-trend<0.05). Compared with the lowest-quartile group, the adjusted odds ratios for having myocardial scar was 1.3 (95% CI, 0.7-2.2) for quartile 2; 1.2 (95% CI, 0.6-2.3) for quartile 3; and 2.7 (95% CI, 1.4-5.5) for quartile 4 (P-trend=0.012) for the total sample. Conclusions Among participants without baseline clinical cardiovascular disease, higher baseline NT-proBNP concentration was significantly associated with subclinical changes in developing myocardial dysfunction, more severe cardiac dyssynchrony, and higher odds of having myocardial scar over a 10-year period independent of traditional cardiovascular disease risk factors.

Blood Pressure Levels in Young Adulthood and Midlife Stroke Incidence in a Diverse Cohort.

[Figure: see text].