Climate change reduces extent of temperate drylands and intensifies drought in deep soils.

Drylands cover 40% of the global terrestrial surface and provide important ecosystem services. While drylands as a whole are expected to increase in extent and aridity in coming decades, temperature and precipitation forecasts vary by latitude and geographic region suggesting different trajectories for tropical, subtropical, and temperate drylands. Uncertainty in the future of tropical and subtropical drylands is well constrained, whereas soil moisture and ecological droughts, which drive vegetation productivity and composition, remain poorly understood in temperate drylands. Here we show that, over the twenty first century, temperate drylands may contract by a third, primarily converting to subtropical drylands, and that deep soil layers could be increasingly dry during the growing season. These changes imply major shifts in vegetation and ecosystem service delivery. Our results illustrate the importance of appropriate drought measures and, as a global study that focuses on temperate drylands, highlight a distinct fate for these highly populated areas.

Plant response to climate change varies with topography, interactions with neighbors, and ecotype.

Predicting the future of any given species represents an unprecedented challenge in light of the many environmental and biological factors that affect organismal performance and that also interact with drivers of global change. In a three-year experiment set in the Mongolian steppe, we examined the response of the common grass Festuca lenensis to manipulated temperature and water while controlling for topographic variation, plant-plant interactions, and ecotypic differentiation. Plant survival and growth responses to a warmer, drier climate varied within the landscape. Response to simulated increased precipitation occurred only in the absence of neighbors, demonstrating that plant-plant interactions can supersede the effects of climate change. F. lenensis also showed evidence of local adaptation in populations that were only 300 m apart. Individuals from the steep and dry upper slope showed a higher stress/drought tolerance, whereas those from the more productive lower slope showed a higher biomass production and a greater ability to cope with competition. Moreover, the response of this species to increased precipitation was ecotype specific, with water addition benefiting only the least stress-tolerant ecotype from the lower slope origin. This multifaceted approach illustrates the importance of placing climate change experiments within a realistic ecological and evolutionary framework. Existing sources of variation impacting plant performance may buffer or obscure climate change effects.

Vulnerability of the northern Mongolian steppe to climate change: insights from flower production and phenology.

The semiarid, northern Mongolian steppe, which still supports pastoral nomads who have used the steppe for millennia, has experienced an average 1.7 degrees C temperature rise over the past 40 years. Continuing climate change is likely to affect flowering phenology and flower numbers with potentially important consequences for plant community composition, ecosystem services, and herder livelihoods. Over the growing seasons of 2009 and 2010, we examined flowering responses to climate manipulation using open-top passive warming chambers (OTCs) at two locations on a south-facing slope: one on the moister, cooler lower slope and the other on the drier, warmer upper slope, where a watering treatment was added in a factorial design with warming. Canonical analysis of principal coordinates (CAP) revealed that OTCs reduced flower production and delayed peak flowering in graminoids as a whole but only affected forbs on the upper slope, where peak flowering was also delayed. OTCs affected flowering phenology in seven of eight species, which were examined individually, either by altering the time of peak flowering and/or the onset and/or cessation of flowering, as revealed by survival analysis. In 2010, which was the drier year, OTCs reduced flower production in two grasses but increased production in an annual forb found only on the upper slope. The particular effects of OTCs on phenology, and whether they caused an extension or contraction of the flowering season, differed among species, and often depended on year, or slope, or watering treatment; however, a relatively strong pattern emerged for 2010 when four species showed a contraction of the flowering season in OTCs. Watering increased flower production in two species in 2010, but slope location more often affected flowering phenology than did watering. Our results show the importance of taking landscape-scale variation into account in climate change studies and also contrasted with those of several studies set in cold, but wetter systems, where warming often causes greater or accelerated flower production. In cold, water-limited systems like the Mongolian steppe, warming may reduce flower numbers or the length of the flowering season by adding to water stress more than it relieves cold stress.

Legumes mitigate ecological consequences of a topographic gradient in a northern Mongolian steppe.

Topography should create spatial variation in water and nutrients and play an especially important role in the ecology of water-limited systems. We use stable isotopes to discern how plants respond both to ecological gradients associated with elevation and to neighboring legumes on a south-facing slope in the semi-arid, historically grazed steppe of northern Mongolia. Out of three target species, Potentilla acaulis, Potentilla sericea, and Festuca lenensis, when >30 cm from a legume, all showed a decrease in leaf δ(15)N with increasing elevation. This, together with measures of soil δ(15)N, suggests greater N processing at the moister, more productive, lower elevation, and more N fixation at the upper elevation, where cover of legumes and lichens and plant-available nitrate were greater. Total soil N was greater at the lower elevation, but not lichen biomass or root colonization by AMF. Leaf δ(13)C values for P. acaulis and F. lenensis are consistent with increasing water stress with elevation; δ(13)C values indicated the greatest intrinsic water use efficiency for P. sericea, which is more abundant at the upper elevation. Nearby legumes (<10 cm) moderate the effect of elevation on leaf δ(15)N, confirming legumes' meaningful input of N, and affect leaf δ(13)C for two species, suggesting an influence on the efficiency of carbon fixation. Variation in leaf %N and %C as a function of elevation and proximity to a legume differs among species. Apparently, most N input is at upper elevations, pointing to the possible importance of grazers, in addition to hydrological processes, as transporters of N throughout this landscape.