ABSTRACT
AIM: To investigate the capability of a biochemical and clinical model, BioCliM, in predicting the survival of cirrhotic patients. METHODS: We prospectively evaluated the survival of 172 cirrhotic patients. The model was constructed using clinical (ascites, encephalopathy and variceal bleeding) and biochemical (serum creatinine and serum total bilirubin) variables that were selected from a Cox proportional hazards model. It was applied to estimate 12-, 52- and 104-wk survival. The model¡¯s calibration using the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic was computed at 104 wk in a validation dataset. Finally, the model¡¯s validity was tested among an independent set of 85 patients who were stratified into 2 risk groups (low risk ¡Ü 8 and high risk > 8). RESULTS: In the validation cohort, all measures of fit, discrimination and calibration were improved when the biochemical and clinical model was used. The proposed model had better predictive values (c-statistic: 0.90, 0.91, 0.91) than the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) and Child-Pugh (CP) scores for 12-, 52- and 104-wk mortality, respectively. In addition, the Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) statistic revealed that the biochemical and clinical model (H-L, 4.69) is better calibrated than MELD (H-L, 17.06) and CP (H-L, 14.23). There were no significant differences between the observed and expected survival curves in the stratified risk groups (low risk, P = 0.61; high risk, P = 0.77). CONCLUSION: Our data suggest that the proposed model is able to accurately predict survival in cirrhotic patients(AU)
Subject(s)
Humans , Liver Cirrhosis , Models, Statistical , Creatinine/blood , Bilirubin/blood , Predictive Value of Tests , Disease-Free Survival , Prognosis , Prospective StudiesABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: The pathogenesis of chronic hepatitis C (CHC) is associated to severe oxidative stress that leads to necro-inflammation and progression of fibrosis. Previous trials suggested that antioxidative therapy may have a beneficial effect. We evaluated the efficacy and safety of Viusid in combination with interferon alpha-2b (IFN alpha-2b) and ribavirin in patients with CHC. METHODS: We randomly assigned 100 patients, between October 2002 and December 2004, in two arms: IFN alpha-2b (5 MU on alternate days), ribavirin at a dose of 13 mg/kg daily and Viusid (three sachets daily) vs. IFN alpha-2b (5 MU on alternate days) and ribavirin at a dose of 13 mg/kg daily. Subjects were treated for 48 weeks and then followed for an additional 24 weeks. The primary end point was the histologic response (reduction of at least two points without fibrosis worsening in the total score on the Histological Activity Index). RESULTS: A significantly high proportion of patients who received combined therapy plus Viusid had a histologic response better than those patients who received IFN alpha-2b and ribavirin (57% vs. 37%, P=0.03). The patients with virologic response achieved the highest percentages of histologic response, irrespective of assigned treatment. Among non-responders, the highest reduction in the mean change from baseline score for necro-inflammatory activity (NA) and fibrosis (F) was reported in patients treated with Viusid [NA, -1.50 (Viusid), -1.20 (without Viusid); F, -0.31 (Viusid), 0.00 (without Viusid)]. Sustained normalization of serum alanine aminotransferase concentration was highest in the Viusid group compared with standard therapy (67% vs. 41%, P=0.009). The overall safety profile was similar in both groups, but interestingly, the anemia was less intense in the group with Viusid (P=0.04). CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that triple therapy with Viusid, IFN alpha-2b and ribavirin was well tolerated and may have a beneficial effect on histologic and biochemical variables. The intensity of anemia is reduced in patients treated with Viusid.
