A mathematical model by route of transmission and fibrosis progression to estimate undiagnosed individuals with HCV in different Italian regions.

BACKGROUND: Although an increase in hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence from Northern to Southern Italy has been reported, the burden of asymptomatic individuals in different Italian regions is currently unknown. METHODS: A probabilistic approach, including a Markov chain for liver disease progression, was applied to estimate current HCV viraemic burden. The model defined prevalence by geographic area using an estimated annual historical HCV incidence by age, treatment rate, and migration rate from the Italian National database. Viraemic infection by age group was estimated for each region by main HCV transmission routes of individuals for stage F0-F3 (i.e. patients without liver cirrhosis and thus potentially asymptomatic) and F4 (patients with liver cirrhosis, thus potentially symptomatic). RESULTS: By January 2020, it was estimated that there were 409,184 Italian individuals with HCV (prevalence of 0.68%; 95% CI: 0.54-0.82%), of which 300,171 (0.50%; 95% CI: 0.4-0.6%) were stage F0-F3. Considering all individuals with HCV in stage F0-F3, the geographical distributions (expressed as the proportion of HCV infected individuals by macroarea within the overall estimated number of F0-F3 individuals and prevalence values, expressed as the percentage of individuals with HCV versus the overall number of individuals for each macroarea) were as follows: North 42.1% (0.45%; 95% CI: 0.36-0.55%), Central 24.1% (0.61%; 95% CI: 0.48-0.74%), South 23.2% (0.50%; 95% CI: 0.4-0.61%), and the Isles 10.6% (0.49%; 95% CI: 0.39-0.59%). The population of people who inject drugs accounted for 50.4% of all individuals infected (F0-F3). Undiagnosed individuals (F0-F3) were ~ 15 years younger (⁓ 50 years) compared with patients with stage F4 (⁓ 65 years), with similar age distributions across macroareas. In contrast to what has been reported on HCV epidemiology in Italy, an increasing trend in the proportion of potentially undiagnosed individuals with HCV (absolute number within the F0-F3) from South (23.2%) to North (42.1%) emerged, independent of similar regional prevalence values. CONCLUSION: This targeted approach, which addresses the specific profile of undiagnosed individuals, is helpful in planning effective elimination strategies by region in Italy and could be a useful methodology for other countries in implementing their elimination plans.

Estimated prevalence of undiagnosed HCV infected individuals in Italy: A mathematical model by route of transmission and fibrosis progression.

BACKGROUND: The universal treatment of diagnosed patients with chronic HCV infection has been widely conducted in Italy since 2017. However, the pool of individuals diagnosed but yet to be treated in Italy has been estimated to end around 2025, leaving a significant proportion of infected individuals undiagnosed/without care. Estimates of this population are currently unknown. METHODS: A probabilistic modelling approach was applied to estimate annual historical HCV incident cases by their age-group (0-100 years) distribution from available literature and Italian National database (1952 to October 2019). Viraemic infection rates were modelled on the main infection routes in Italy: people who inject drugs (PWID), tattoos, sexual transmission, glass syringe use, blood transfusion and vertical transmission. Annual liver fibrosis stage transition probabilities were modelled using a Markov model. The number of HCV viraemic asymptomatic (fibrosis stage F0-F3:potentially undiagnosed/unlinked to care) and symptomatic (fibrosis stage F4: potentially linked to care) individuals was estimated. RESULTS: By October 2019, total viraemic HCV individuals in Italy (excluding treated patients since 1992) were estimated to be 410,775 (0.68 % of current population of Italy; 95 % CI: 0.64-0.71%, based on the current Italian population), of which 281,809 (0.47 %; 95 % CI:0.35-0.60%) were fibrosis stage F0-F3. Among different high risk groups in stage F0-F3, the following distribution was estimated: PWID; 52.0 % (95 % CI:37.9-66.6 %), tattoo; 28.8 % (95 % CI:23-32.3 %), sexual transmission; 12.0 % (95 % CI:9.6-13.7 %), glass syringe and transfusion; 6.4 % (95 % CI:2.4-17.8 %), and vertical transmission; 0.7 % (95 % CI:0.4-1.2 %). CONCLUSION: Under the assumption that most untreated HCV-infected individuals with stage F0-F3 are undiagnosed, more than 280,000 individuals are undiagnosed and/or unlinked to care in Italy. Marked heterogeneity across the major routes of HCV transmission was estimated. This modelling approach may be a useful tool to characterise the HCV epidemic profile also in other countries, based on country specific epidemiology and HCV main transmission routes.

Falling Rates of Hospital Admissions for Alcoholic Liver Disease in Northeast Italy: A Retrospective Study on a Large Database.

AIM: To describe recent trends in hospital admission rates for alcoholic liver disease (ALD) in the Veneto region of Italy. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study is based on anonymous hospital discharge records (HDRs) for 2000-2017 from all public and accredited private hospitals operating within the context of the Regional (Veneto) Health Services that are conserved in National/Regional database. It examined the HDR's of all the hospitalizations of the residents of the Veneto region that were registered under an ALD diagnosis. These were classified under three subheadings: acute alcoholic hepatitis Alcoholic liver cirrhosis and 'other ALD'. RESULTS: During 2000-2017, 30,089 hospital admissions (out of a total regional population of 4,900,000) were registered for ALD. Hospitalization stratified by age showed that the percentage attributable to acute alcoholic hepatitis is higher in younger age groups: 42% in 15-24-year-old (odds ratios (ORs): 14.74; CI95%: 7-30.86; P < 0.000) and 15% in the 25-44-year-old (OR: 3.51; CI95%: 3.12-3.94; P < 0.000). A longitudinal analysis of hospitalization patterns showed a 7% increase in average age in both sexes (from 58.8 ± 9.2 to 62.4 ± 9.7) and a substantial decrease (63.5%) in standardized hospitalization rates (HRs, χ2 trend: 4099.827; P < 0.000) and a smaller decrease (47%) in standardized mortality rates (χ2 trend: 89.563; P < 0.000). CONCLUSIONS: The fall in the overall ALD-related HR in the Veneto region can be explained by a decrease in population alcohol consumption. Increase in the HRs for acute alcoholic hepatitis in the age group 15-44 suggests an ongoing need for strategies to prevent alcohol abuse by young people.

A cost-consequence analysis of hepatitis B screening in an immigrant population.

OBJECTIVE: Screening for HBV among groups at risk, such as migrant populations, has proved to be a cost-effective strategy. With a view to advising local policy-makers, the cost-consequences of HBV screening was assessed using a modeling approach. METHODS: This cost-consequence analysis of an HBV screening strategy was conducted in a cohort of adult migrants in the province of Padua, northern Italy. RESULTS: The population targeted for screening consisted of 65 405 migrants, among whom the weighted rate for the prevalence of HBV was 0.04972, with 3251 people infected. Over a period of 5 years, the screening strategy prevented 565 cases/year of chronic hepatitis, 141 of compensated cirrhosis, 9 of decompensated cirrhosis, 14 hepatocellular carcinomas and 12 deaths. The above data revealed that the incremental cost of the screening strategy compared to no screening strategy was € 7 974 959 over the five year period. The cost per life saved amounted to € 676 709. CONCLUSIONS: The present study provides useful information to policy-makers at local and regional levels.

Silybin combined with phosphatidylcholine and vitamin E in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: a randomized controlled trial.

The only currently recommended treatment for nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is lifestyle modification. Preliminary studies of silybin showed beneficial effects on liver function. Realsil (RA) comprises the silybin phytosome complex (silybin plus phosphatidylcholine) coformulated with vitamin E. We report on a multicenter, phase III, double-blind clinical trial to assess RA in patients with histologically documented NAFLD. Patients were randomized 1:1 to RA or placebo (P) orally twice daily for 12 months. Prespecified primary outcomes were improvement over time in clinical condition, normalization of liver enzyme plasma levels, and improvement of ultrasonographic liver steatosis, homeostatic model assessment (HOMA), and quality of life. Secondary outcomes were improvement in liver histologic score and/or decrease in NAFLD score without worsening of fibrosis and plasma changes in cytokines, ferritin, and liver fibrosis markers. We treated 179 patients with NAFLD; 36 were also HCV positive. Forty-one patients were prematurely withdrawn and 138 patients analyzed per protocol (69 per group). Baseline patient characteristics were generally well balanced between groups, except for steatosis, portal infiltration, and fibrosis. Adverse events (AEs) were generally transient and included diarrhea, dysgeusia, and pruritus; no serious AEs were recorded. Patients receiving RA but not P showed significant improvements in liver enzyme plasma levels, HOMA, and liver histology. Body mass index normalized in 15% of RA patients (2.1% with P). HCV-positive patients in the RA but not the P group showed improvements in fibrogenesis markers. This is the first study to systematically assess silybin in NAFLD patients. Treatment with RA but not P for 12 months was associated with improvement in liver enzymes, insulin resistance, and liver histology, without increases in body weight. These findings warrant further investigation.

Fatal hepatic decompensation in a bone marrow transplant recipient with HBV-related cirrhosis following lamivudine withdrawal.

Lamivudine is a nucleoside analogue with a potent antiviral activity used as prophylaxis against hepatitis B virus reactivation in patients with chronic HBV infection receiving chemotherapy. No standard guidelines exist, however, for the duration of lamivudine treatment. We report a clinical case of a 56-year-old patient with HBeAg-negative cirrhosis who developed a multiple myeloma. He was treated with lamivudine for 1 year while receiving chemotherapy and a subsequent bone marrow transplant. Complete remission from multiple myeloma was achieved. Four months after lamivudine was withdrawn, he experienced HBV reactivation with jaundice, though no YMDD mutations were detected. The patient rapidly developed fatal decompensation with septicemia and renal failure. In conclusion, this case shows that physicians should avoid discontinuing nucleoside therapy in patients with HBV infection who undergo immunosuppression for concomitant neoplastic conditions.

Epidemiological and clinical burden of chronic hepatitis B virus/hepatitis C virus infection. A multicenter Italian study.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: This study assess prevalence, risk factors, and clinical and virological features of dual hepatitis B virus (HBV)/hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. METHODS: We evaluated 837 hepatitis B surface antigen positive patients, prospectively enrolled in 14 Italian units. RESULTS: Anti-HCV was present in 59 cases (7%); age specific prevalences were 4.5% (0-30 years), 4.4% (>30-50) and 14% (>50). Independent predictors of dual infection were age >42 years, history of I.V. drug use (IDU), blood transfusion and residence in the South of the country. The strength of the association with IDU was high, but this exposure accounted for five coinfection cases only. Cirrhosis was present in 107 of the 709 patients with HBV alone (15.1%), in 30 of 69 with hepatitis D virus coinfection (43%) and in 17 of 59 with HCV coinfection (28.8%); a light alcohol use was marginally associated with cirrhosis. Of 36 B/C coinfected patients, 16 (44.4%) had only HBV-DNA in serum, (median age=47.5 years) five (13.9%) had both HBV-DNA and HCV-RNA (age=53), nine (25%) had HCV-RNA alone (age=59) and six (16.7%) tested negative for both. CONCLUSIONS: This study depicts the epidemiological and clinical burden of dual HBV/HCV infection in Italy.

Intra-familial transmission of hepatitis B virus in Italy: phylogenetic sequence analysis and amino-acid variation of the core gene.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Transmission of hepatitis B virus (HBV) in countries of intermediate endemicity, such as Italy, is thought to be primarily horizontal and, to a lesser extent, vertical. Most chronic carriers therefore become infected in infancy or at a very young age. The index cases in such events have been assumed to come from within the family unit or from sources outside the immediate family, with whom the affected person is in close contact. METHODS: We studied a number of Italian families with multiple members chronically infected with HBV. The precore/core region of the virus was amplified from serum derived HBV-DNA, and the sequences subjected to phylogenetic tree analysis. In addition, the extent of amino-acid variation within the core region was correlated to HLA type, determined by allele-specific PCR. RESULTS: The phylogenetic tree analysis provided strong evidence of intra-familial transmission of the virus. Analysis of amino-acid substitutions in the core region in relation to HLA class II alleles from members of the same family showed that these substitutions were restricted in siblings with concordant, and more diverse in those with discordant HLA haplotypes. CONCLUSIONS: This is consistent with major histocompatibility complex class II mediated selection pressure on the virus.