ABSTRACT
A common policy response to the rise in obesity prevalence is to undertake interventions in childhood, but it is an open question whether this is more effective than reducing the risk of becoming obese during adulthood. In this paper, we model the effect on health outcomes of (i) reducing the prevalence of obesity when entering adulthood; (ii) reducing the risk of becoming obese throughout adult life; and (iii) combinations of both approaches. We found that, while all approaches reduce the prevalence of chronic diseases and improve life expectancy, a given percentage reduction in obesity prevalence achieved during childhood had a smaller effect than the same percentage reduction in the risk of becoming obese applied throughout adulthood. A small increase in the probability of becoming obese during adulthood offsets a substantial reduction in prevalence of overweight/obesity achieved during childhood, with the gains from a 50% reduction in child obesity prevalence offset by a 10% increase in the probability of becoming obese in adulthood. We conclude that both policy approaches can improve the health profile throughout the life course of a cohort, but they are not equivalent, and a large reduction in child obesity prevalence may be reversed by a small increase in the risk of becoming overweight or obese in adulthood.
Subject(s)
Models, Biological , Obesity/complications , Obesity/epidemiology , Outcome Assessment, Health Care , Risk Assessment , Adult , Child , Chronic Disease , Humans , Life Expectancy , Obesity/mortality , PrevalenceABSTRACT
Excess weight in children is thought to be widely prevalent and to be increasing. An analysis of the data for children collected in the Health Survey for England in 1998 shows that, using international definitions of overweight and obesity, one child in 25 is obese and one child in five is overweight (including those that are obese). Between 1994 and 1998, the prevalence of overweight children grew from about 13 to 20%. The prevalence of excess bodyweight among children in England appears to be rising at an accelerating rate.
