Can knowledgeable experts assess costs and outcomes as if they were ignorant? An experiment within precision medicine evaluation.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study is to evaluate the validity of the standard approach in expert judgment for evaluating precision medicines, in which experts are required to estimate outcomes as if they did not have access to diagnostic information, whereas in fact, they do. METHODS: Fourteen clinicians participated in an expert judgment task to estimate the cost and medical outcomes of the use of exome sequencing in pediatric patients with intractable epilepsy in Thailand. Experts were randomly assigned to either an "unblind" or "blind" group; the former was provided with the exome sequencing results for each patient case prior to the judgment task, whereas the latter was not provided with the exome sequencing results. Both groups were asked to estimate the outcomes for the counterfactual scenario, in which patients had not been tested by exome sequencing. RESULTS: Our study did not show significant results, possibly due to the small sample size of both participants and case studies. CONCLUSIONS: A comparison of the unblind and blind approach did not show conclusive evidence that there is a difference in outcomes. However, until further evidence suggests otherwise, we recommend the blind approach as preferable when using expert judgment to evaluate precision medicines because this approach is more representative of the counterfactual scenario than the unblind approach.

Using an experiment among clinical experts to determine the cost and clinical impact of rapid whole exome sequencing in acute pediatric settings.

Objective: Evaluate the cost and clinical impacts of rapid whole-exome sequencing (rWES) for managing pediatric patients with unknown etiologies of critical illnesses through an expert elicitation experiment. Method: Physicians in the intervention group (n = 10) could order rWES to complete three real-world case studies, while physicians in the control group (n = 8) could not. Costs and health outcomes between and within groups were compared. Results: The cost incurred in the intervention group was consistently higher than the control by 60,000-70,000 THB. Fewer other investigation costs were incurred when rWES could provide a diagnosis. Less cost was incurred when an rWES that could lead to a change in management was ordered earlier. Diagnostic accuracy and the quality of non-pharmaceutical interventions were superior when rWES was available. Conclusion: In acute pediatric settings, rWES offered clinical benefits at the average cost of 60,000-70,000 THB. Whether this test is cost-effective warrants further investigations. Several challenges, including cost and ethical concerns for assessing high-cost technology for rare diseases in resource-limited settings, were potentially overcome by our study design using expert elicitation methods.

From Research to Policy Implementation: Trastuzumab in Early-Stage Breast Cancer Treatment in Thailand.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the adjuvant therapy of trastuzumab cost and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) in lifetime horizon and describe the use of an economic evaluation in supporting policy-making decisions in the treatment of early-stage breast cancer in Thailand. METHODS: A Markov model was used to evaluate the cost effectiveness of 1-year adjuvant trastuzumab for patients with early-stage breast cancer who were considered human epidermal growth factor receptor 2/neu-positive with a societal perspective and lifetime horizon. The research variables were probability of health state change, health utility, and cost of treatment. A sensitivity analysis was conducted using probabilistic methods. A budget impact analysis was also performed. RESULTS: The results revealed that the treatment cost and QALYs in the trastuzumab group yielded 4.59 QALYs. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $3387 (THB 118 572; THB = Thai baht) per QALY. On the basis of the willingness-to-pay threshold in Thailand, a 1-year adjuvant trastuzumab treatment for breast cancer was a cost-effective therapy. CONCLUSIONS: A combination therapy that includes trastuzumab is a preferable choice and should be used in early-stage breast cancer treatment. The Thai government has listed trastuzumab on the National List of Essential Medicines to be used for the early stages of breast cancer since 2014.

Economic evaluation of pegylated interferon plus ribavirin for treatment of chronic hepatitis C in Thailand: genotype 1 and 6.

BACKGROUND: Pegylated interferon alpha 2a, alpha 2b and ribavirin have been included to the National List of Essential Medicines (NLEM) for treatment of only chronic hepatitis C genotypes 2 and 3 in Thailand. This reimbursement policy has not covered for other genotypes of hepatitis C virus infection (HCV) especially for genotypes 1 and 6 that account for 30-50 % of all HCV infection in Thailand. Therefore, this research determined whether pegylated interferon alpha 2a or alpha 2b plus ribavirin is more cost-effective than a palliative care for treatment of HCV genotype 1 and 6 in Thailand. METHODS: A cost-utility analysis using a model-based economic evaluation was conducted based on a societal perspective. A Markov model was developed to estimate costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) comparing between the combination of pegylated interferon alpha 2a or alpha 2b and ribavirin with a usual palliative care for genotype 1 and 6 HCV patients. Health-state transition probabilities, virological responses, and utility values were obtained from published literatures. Direct medical and direct non-medical costs were included and retrieved from published articles and Thai Standard Cost List for Health Technology Assessment. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was presented as costs in Thai baht per QALY gained. RESULTS: HCV treatment with pegylated interferon alpha 2a or alpha 2b plus ribavirin was dominant or cost-saving in Thailand compared to a palliative care. The ICER value was negative with lower in total costs (peg 2a- 747,718vs. peg 2b- 819,921 vs. palliative care- 1,169,121 Thai baht) and more in QALYs (peg 2a- 13.44 vs. peg 2b- 13.14 vs. palliative care- 11.63 years) both in HCV genotypes 1 and 6. CONCLUSION: As cost-saving results, the Subcommittee for Development of the NLEM decided to include both pegylated interferon alpha 2a and alpha 2b into the NLEM for treatment of HCV genotype 1 and 6 recently. Economic evaluation for these current drugs can be further applied to other novel medications for HCV treatment.