Evaluation of an obstetric and neonatal care upskilling program for community health workers in Papua New Guinea.

BACKGROUND: 60% of women in Papua New Guinea (PNG) give birth unsupervised and outside of a health facility, contributing to high national maternal and perinatal mortality rates. We evaluated a practical, hospital-based on-the-job training program implemented by local health authorities in PNG between 2013 and 2019 aimed at addressing this challenge by upskilling community health workers (CHWs) to provide quality maternal and newborn care in rural health facilities. METHODS: Two provinces, the Eastern Highlands and Simbu Provinces, were included in the study. In the Eastern Highlands Province, a baseline and end point skills assessment and post-training interviews 12 months after completion of the 2018 training were used to evaluate impacts on CHW knowledge, skills, and self-reported satisfaction with training. Quality and timeliness of referrals was assessed through data from the Eastern Highlands Province referral hospital registers. In Simbu Province, impacts of training on facility births, stillbirths and referrals were evaluated pre- and post-training retrospectively using routine health facility reporting data from 2012 to 2019, and negative binomial regression analysis adjusted for potential confounders and correlation of outcomes within facilities. RESULTS: The average knowledge score increased significantly, from 69.8% (95% CI:66.3-73.2%) at baseline, to 87.8% (95% CI:82.9-92.6%) following training for the 8 CHWs participating in Eastern Highlands Province training. CHWs reported increased confidence in their skills and ability to use referral networks. There were significant increases in referrals to the Eastern Highlands provincial hospital arriving in the second stage of labour but no significant difference in the 5 min Apgar score for children, pre and post training. Data on 11,345 births in participating facilities in Simbu Province showed that the number of births in participating rural health facilities more than doubled compared to prior to training, with the impact increasing over time after training (0-12 months after training: IRR 1.59, 95% CI: 1.04-2.44, p-value 0.033, > 12 months after training: IRR 2.46, 95% CI:1.37-4.41, p-value 0.003). There was no significant change in stillbirth or referral rates. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings showed positive impacts of the upskilling program on CHW knowledge and practice of participants, facility births rates, and appropriateness of referrals, demonstrating its promise as a feasible intervention to improve uptake of maternal and newborn care services in rural and remote, low-resource settings within the resourcing available to local authorities. Larger-scale evaluations of a size adequately powered to ascertain impact of the intervention on stillbirth rates are warranted.

Methodological issues of retrospective surveys for measuring mortality of highly clustered diseases: case study of the 2014-16 Ebola outbreak in Bo District, Sierra Leone.

BACKGROUND: There is a lack of empirical data on design effects (DEFF) for mortality rate for highly clustered data such as with Ebola virus disease (EVD), along with a lack of documentation of methodological limitations and operational utility of mortality estimated from cluster-sampled studies when the DEFF is high. OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this paper are to report EVD mortality rate and DEFF estimates, and discuss the methodological limitations of cluster surveys when data are highly clustered such as during an EVD outbreak. METHODS: We analysed the outputs of two independent population-based surveys conducted at the end of the 2014-2016 EVD outbreak in Bo District, Sierra Leone, in urban and rural areas. In each area, 35 clusters of 14 households were selected with probability proportional to population size. We collected information on morbidity, mortality and changes in household composition during the recall period (May 2014 to April 2015). Rates were calculated for all-cause, all-age, under-5 and EVD-specific mortality, respectively, by areas and overall. Crude and adjusted mortality rates were estimated using Poisson regression, accounting for the surveys sample weights and the clustered design. RESULTS: Overall 980 households and 6,522 individuals participated in both surveys. A total of 64 deaths were reported, of which 20 were attributed to EVD. The crude and EVD-specific mortality rates were 0.35/10,000 person-days (95%CI: 0.23-0.52) and 0.12/10,000 person-days (95%CI: 0.05-0.32), respectively. The DEFF for EVD mortality was 5.53, and for non-EVD mortality, it was 1.53. DEFF for EVD-specific mortality was 6.18 in the rural area and 0.58 in the urban area. DEFF for non-EVD-specific mortality was 1.87 in the rural area and 0.44 in the urban area. CONCLUSION: Our findings demonstrate a high degree of clustering; this contributed to imprecise mortality estimates, which have limited utility when assessing the impact of disease. We provide DEFF estimates that can inform future cluster surveys and discuss design improvements to mitigate the limitations of surveys for highly clustered data.

Main findings: For humanitarian organizations it is imperative to document the methodological limitations of cluster surveys and discuss the utility.Added knowledge: This paper adds new knowledge on cluster surveys for highly clustered data such us in Ebola virus disease.Global health impact of policy and action: We provided empirical estimates and discuss design improvements to inform future study.

COVID-19 vaccination strategies in settings with limited rollout capacity: a mathematical modelling case study in Sierra Leone.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 vaccine coverage in low- and middle-income countries continues to be challenging. As supplies increase, coverage is increasingly becoming determined by rollout capacity. METHODS: We developed a deterministic compartmental model of COVID-19 transmission to explore how age-, risk-, and dose-specific vaccine prioritisation strategies can minimise severe outcomes of COVID-19 in Sierra Leone. RESULTS: Prioritising booster doses to older adults and adults with comorbidities could reduce the incidence of severe disease by 23% and deaths by 34% compared to the use of these doses as primary doses for all adults. Providing a booster dose to pregnant women who present to antenatal care could prevent 38% of neonatal deaths associated with COVID-19 infection during pregnancy. The vaccination of children is not justified unless there is sufficient supply to not affect doses delivered to adults. CONCLUSIONS: Our paper supports current WHO SAGE vaccine prioritisation guidelines (released January 2022). Individuals who are at the highest risk of developing severe outcomes should be prioritised, and opportunistic vaccination strategies considered in settings with limited rollout capacity.

Assessing the potential impact of COVID-19 booster doses and oral antivirals: A mathematical modelling study of selected middle-income countries in the Indo-Pacific.

Continued efforts to reduce the burden of COVID-19 require the consideration of additional booster doses and emerging oral antivirals. This study explored the individual- and population-level impacts of booster dose and oral antivirals in Indonesia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea, and Timor-Leste. Our mathematical model included age structure, vaccine coverage, prevalence of comorbidities, and immunity from prior infection fit to incidence data from our study settings. We explored a range of eligibility criteria and found that boosters had the largest impact per dose when prioritised to high-risk adults and adults who had not previously received a booster. Antivirals were most effective in settings with low vaccine-derived immunity. In general, fewer antivirals than booster doses were required to prevent a hospitalisation or death. Only in settings with very high vaccine uptake was the impact per dose of providing booster doses to high-risk adults comparable to providing oral antivirals to high-risk adults. Together, booster doses and oral antivirals could prevent 80%, 64%, 49%, and 65% of deaths, and 38%, 37%, 16%, and 34% of hospitalisations in Fiji, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, and Timor-Leste respectively. Therefore, our findings support the continued provision of COVID-19 booster doses to high-risk adults in 2023, and advocate for increased access to oral antivirals, especially in settings with low vaccine coverage such as Papua New Guinea. Future work should consider the threshold at which self-financing of COVID-19 oral antivirals would be viable for middle-income countries in South-East Asia and the Pacific.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of a maternal pneumococcal vaccine in low-income, high-burden settings such as Sierra Leone.

Maternal pneumococcal vaccines have been proposed as a method of protecting infants in the first few months of life. In this paper, we use results from a dynamic transmission model to assess the cost-effectiveness of a maternal pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine from both healthcare and societal perspectives. We estimate the costs of delivering a maternal pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine, the healthcare costs averted, and productivity losses avoided through the prevention of severe pneumococcal outcomes such as pneumonia and meningitis. Our model estimates that a maternal pneumococcal program would cost $606 (2020 USD, 95% prediction interval 437 to 779) from a healthcare perspective and $132 (95% prediction interval -1 to 265) from a societal perspective per DALY averted for one year of vaccine delivery. Hence, a maternal pneumococcal vaccine would be cost-effective from a societal perspective but not cost-effective from a healthcare perspective using Sierra Leone's GDP per capita of $527 as a cost-effectiveness threshold. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates how the choice to discount ongoing health benefits determines whether the maternal pneumococcal vaccine was deemed cost-effective from a healthcare perspective. Without discounting, the cost per DALY averted would be $292 (55% of Sierra Leone's GDP per capita) from a healthcare perspective. Further, the cost per DALY averted would be $142 (27% GDP per capita) from a healthcare perspective if PPV could be procured at the same cost relative to PCV in Sierra Leone as on the PAHO reference price list. Overall, our paper demonstrates that maternal pneumococcal vaccines have the potential to be cost-effective in low-income settings; however, the likelihood of low-income countries self-financing this intervention will depend on negotiations with vaccine providers on vaccine price. Vaccine price is the largest program cost driving the cost-effectiveness of a future maternal pneumococcal vaccine.

Modelling the impact of maternal pneumococcal vaccination on infant pneumococcal disease in low-income settings.

Pneumococcal disease is a leading cause of mortality in young children. The largest burden of pneumococcal disease is in the first six months of life before protection from a complete schedule of direct immunisation is possible. Maternal pneumococcal vaccination has been proposed as a strategy for protection in this period of early childhood; however, limited clinical trial data exists. In this study, we developed an age-structured compartmental mathematical model to estimate the impact of maternal pneumococcal vaccination. Our model demonstrates how maternal pneumococcal vaccination could prevent 73% (range 49-88%) of cases in those aged <1 month and 55% (range 36-66%) in those 1-2 months old. This translates to an estimated 17% reduction in deaths due to invasive pneumococcal disease in children under five. Overall, this study demonstrates the potential for maternal pneumococcal vaccination to meaningfully reduce the burden of infant pneumococcal disease, supporting the case for appropriate field-based clinical studies.

Integrating General Practice Into the Australian COVID-19 Response: A Description of the General Practitioner Respiratory Clinic Program in Australia.

Integrating primary care with the health response is key to managing pandemics and other health emergencies. In recognition of this, the Australian Government established a network of respiratory clinics led by general practitioners in response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic as part of broader measures aimed at supporting primary care. General practitioner (GP) respiratory clinics provide holistic face-to-face assessment and treatment to those with respiratory symptoms in an environment with strict protocols for infection prevention and control. This ensures that these patients are able to access high quality primary care while protecting the general practice workforce and other patients. The GP respiratory clinic model was developed and operationalized 10 days after the policy was announced, with the first 2 respiratory clinics opening on March 21, 2020. Subsequently a total of 150 respiratory clinics were opened and served over 800,000 patients within more than 99% of Australia's postcodes. These clinics used a standardized data collection tool that has provided the largest and most complete primary care surveillance database of respiratory illness in Australia. The success of the GP respiratory clinic model was made possible due to strong partnerships with Primary Health Networks and individual general practices that rapidly shifted operations to embrace this new approach. This article describes the development and early implementation of this model.

Common Features of Selection Processes of Health System Performance Indicators in Primary Healthcare: A Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND: Health system performance indicators are widely used to assess primary healthcare (PHC) performance. Despite the numerous tools and some convergence on indicator criteria, there is not a clear understanding of the common features of indicator selection processes. We aimed to review the literature to identify papers that document indicator selection processes for health system performance indicators in PHC. METHODS: We searched the online databases Scopus, Medline, and CINAHL, as well as the grey literature, without time restrictions, initially on July 31, 2019 followed by an update November 13, 2020. Empirical studies or reports were included if they described the selection of health system performance indicators or frameworks, that included PHC indicators. A combination of the process focussed research question and qualitative analysis meant a quality appraisal tool or assessment of bias could not meaningfully be applied to assess individual studies. We undertook an inductive analysis based on potential indicator selection processes criteria, drawn from health system performance indicator appraisal tools reported in the literature. RESULTS: We identified 16 503 records of which 28 were included in the review. Most studies used a descriptive case study design. We found no consistent variations between indicator selection processes of health systems of high income and low- or lower-middle income countries. Identified common features of selection processes for indicators in PHC include literature review or adaption of an existing framework as an initial step; a consensus building process with stakeholders; structuring indicators into categories; and indicator criteria focusing on validity and feasibility. The evidence around field testing with utility and consideration of reporting burden was less clear. CONCLUSION: Our findings highlight several characteristics of health system indicator selection processes. These features provide the groundwork to better understand how to value indicator selection processes in PHC.

Opening up safely: public health system requirements for ongoing COVID-19 management based on evaluation of Australia's surveillance system performance.

BACKGROUND: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) community transmission was eliminated in Australia from 1/11/2020 to 30/6/2021, allowing evaluation of surveillance system performance in detecting novel outbreaks, including against variants of concern (VoCs). This paper aims to define system requirements for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) surveillance under future transmission and response scenarios, based on surveillance system performance to date. METHODS: This study described and evaluated surveillance systems and epidemiological characteristics of novel outbreaks based on publicly available data, and assessed surveillance system sensitivity and timeliness in outbreak detection. These findings were integrated with analysis of other critical COVID-19 public health measures to establish future COVID-19 management requirements. RESULTS: Twenty-five epidemiologically distinct outbreaks and five distinct clusters were identified in the study period, all linked through genomic sequencing to novel introductions from international travellers. Seventy percent (21/30) were detected through community testing of people with acute respiratory illness, and 30% (9/30) through quarantine screening. On average, 2.07% of the State population was tested in the week preceding detection for those identified through community surveillance. From 17/30 with publicly available data, the average time from seeding to detection was 4.9 days. One outbreak was preceded by unexpected positive wastewater results. Twenty of the 24 outbreaks in 2021 had publicly available sequencing data, all of which identified VoCs. A surveillance strategy for future VoCs similar to that used for detecting SARS-CoV-2 would require a 100-1000-fold increase in genomic sequencing capacity compared to the study period. Other essential requirements are maintaining outbreak response capacity and developing capacity to rapidly engineer, manufacture, and distribute variant vaccines at scale. CONCLUSIONS: Australia's surveillance systems performed well in detecting novel introduction of SARS-CoV-2 while community transmission was eliminated; introductions were infrequent and case numbers were low. Detection relied on quarantine screening and community surveillance in symptomatic members of the general population, supported by comprehensive genomic sequencing. Once vaccine coverage is maximised, future COVID-19 control should shift to detection of SARS-CoV-2 VoCs, requiring maintenance of surveillance systems and testing all international arrivals, alongside greatly increased genomic sequencing capacity. Effective government support of localised public health response mechanisms and engagement of all sectors of the community is crucial to current and future COVID-19 management.

Factors That Influence Data Use to Improve Health Service Delivery in Low- and Middle-Income Countries.

BACKGROUND: Health service delivery indicators are designed to reveal how well health services meet a community's needs. Effective use of the data can enable targeted improvements in health service delivery. We conducted a systematic review to identify the factors that influence the use of health service delivery indicators to improve delivery of primary health care services in low- and middle-income settings. METHODS: We reviewed empirical studies published in 2005 or later that provided evidence on the use of health service delivery data at the primary care level in low- and middle-income countries. We searched Scopus, Medline, the Cochrane Library, and citations of included studies. We also searched the gray literature, using a separate strategy. We extracted information on study design, setting, study population, study objective, key findings, and any identified lessons learned. RESULTS: Twelve studies met the inclusion criteria. This small number of studies suggests there is insufficient evidence to draw reliable conclusions. However, a content analysis identified the following potentially influential factors, which we classified into 3 categories: governance (leadership, participatory monitoring, regular review of data); production of information (presentation of findings, data quality, qualitative data); and health information system resources (electronic health management information systems, organizational structure, training). Contextual factors and performance-based financing were also each found to have a role; however, discussing these as mediating factors may not be practical in terms of promoting data use. CONCLUSION: Scant evidence exists regarding factors that influence the use of health service delivery indicators to improve delivery of primary health care services in low- and middle-income countries. However, the existing evidence highlights some factors that may have a role in improving data use. Further research may benefit from comparing data use factors across different types of program indicators or using our classification as a framework for field experiments.

The Effect of Women's Differential Access to Messages on Their Adoption of Mobile Health Services and Pregnancy Behavior in Bangladesh: Retrospective Cross-Sectional Study.

BACKGROUND: Text or voice messages have been used as a popular method for improving women's knowledge on birth preparedness and newborn health care practices worldwide. The Aponjon service in Bangladesh provides twice-weekly messages to female subscribers about their pregnancy and newborn care on mobile phones that they own or share with family members. It is important to understand whether women's singular access to a phone affects their service satisfaction and the adoption of health messages before deploying such interventions in resource-limited settings. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to evaluate the effect of women's singular and shared access to mobile phone messages on their service utilization and perceived behavioral change around birth preparedness and pregnancy care. METHODS: In 2014, Aponjon conducted a retrospective cross-sectional survey of 459 female subscribers who received text or voice messages during their pregnancy by themselves (n=253) or with family members (n=206). We performed multivariable regression analyses to investigate the association between pregnant women's differential access to messages and other socioeconomic factors and outcomes of service satisfaction, ability to recall service short code, ability to identify danger signs of pregnancy, preference for skilled delivery, arrangement of a blood donor for delivery and pregnancy complications, maternal nutrition, use of potable drinking water, and washing hands with soap for hygiene. RESULTS: In the multivariable analysis, women who had singular access to messages had higher odds of reporting high satisfaction (odds ratio [OR] 1.72, 95% CI 1.12-2.63; P=.01), recalling the service short code (OR 2.88, 95% CI 1.90-4.36; P<.001), consuming nutritious food 5 times a day (OR 1.58, 95% CI 1.04-2.40; P=.03), and following the instructions of Aponjon on drinking potable water (OR 1.90, 95% CI 1.17-3.09; P=.01) than women who shared access with family members. Women's differential access to messages did not affect their knowledge of danger signs and preparedness around delivery. Adolescent women and women aged 20-24 years had lower odds of planning safe deliveries than older women (aged≥25 years). Secondary education was statistically significantly associated with women's ability to recall the short code and pregnancy danger signs, plan safe delivery, and select blood donors for emergencies. Higher family income was associated with women's satisfaction, recognition of danger signs, and arrangement of blood donors and nutritious diet. Women who received more than 4 antenatal care visits had higher odds of liking the service, preferring skilled delivery, recalling danger signs, and consuming nutritious food. CONCLUSIONS: The capacity of women to independently access mobile phone messages can improve their adoption of mobile health services and some pregnancy health care practices. A holistic approach and equitable support are required to improve access to resources and knowledge of delivery preparedness among low-literate and younger women in low-income households.

Clinical and epidemiological performance of WHO Ebola case definitions: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Ebola virus disease case definition is a crucial surveillance tool to detect suspected cases for referral and as a screening tool for clinicians to support admission and laboratory testing decisions at Ebola health facilities. We aimed to assess the performance of the WHO Ebola virus disease case definitions and other screening scores. METHODS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched PubMed, Scopus, Embase, and Web of Science for studies published in English between June 13, 1978, and Jan 14, 2020. We included studies that estimated the sensitivity and specificity of WHO Ebola virus disease case definitions, clinical and epidemiological characteristics (symptoms at admission and contact history), and predictive risk scores against the reference standard (laboratory-confirmed Ebola virus disease). Summary estimates of sensitivity and specificity were calculated using bivariate and hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic (when four or more studies provided data) or random-effects meta-analysis (fewer than four studies provided data). FINDINGS: We identified 2493 publications, of which 14 studies from four countries (Sierra Leone, Guinea, Liberia, and Angola) were included in the analysis. 12 021 people with suspected disease were included, of whom 4874 were confirmed as positive for Ebola virus infection. Six studies explored the performance of WHO case definitions in non-paediatric populations, and in all of these studies, suspected and probable cases were combined and could not be disaggregated for analysis. The pooled sensitivity of the WHO Ebola virus disease case definitions from these studies was 81·5% (95% CI 74·1-87·2) and pooled specificity was 35·7% (28·5-43·6). History of contact or epidemiological link was a key predictor for the WHO case definitions (seven studies) and for risk scores (six studies). The most sensitive symptom was intense fatigue (79·0% [95% CI 74·4-83·0]), assessed in seven studies, and the least sensitive symptom was pain behind the eyes (1·0% [0·0-7·0]), assessed in three studies. The performance of fever as a symptom varied depending on the cutoff used to define fever. INTERPRETATION: WHO Ebola virus disease case definitions perform suboptimally to identify cases at both community level and during triage at Ebola health facilities. Inclusion of intense fatigue as a key symptom and contact history could improve the performance of case definitions, but implementation of these changes will require effective collaboration with, and trust of, affected communities. FUNDING: Médecins sans Frontières.

Maternal health after Ebola: unmet needs and barriers to healthcare in rural Sierra Leone.

Sierra Leone has the world's highest estimated maternal mortality. Following the 2014-16 Ebola outbreak, we described health outcomes and health-seeking behaviour amongst pregnant women to inform health policy. In October 2016-January 2017, we conducted a sequential mixed-methods study in urban and rural areas of Tonkolili District comprising: household survey targeting women who had given birth since onset of the Ebola outbreak; structured interviews at rural sites investigating maternal deaths and reporting; and in-depth interviews (IDIs) targeting mothers, community leaders and health workers. We selected 30 clusters in each area: by random GPS points (urban) and by random village selection stratified by population size (rural). We collected data on health-seeking behaviours, barriers to healthcare, childbirth and outcomes using structured questionnaires. IDIs exploring topics identified through the survey were conducted with a purposive sample and analysed thematically. We surveyed 608 women and conducted 29 structured and 72 IDIs. Barriers, including costs of healthcare and physical inaccessibility of healthcare facilities, delayed or prevented 90% [95% confidence interval (CI): 80-95] (rural) vs 59% (95% CI: 48-68) (urban) pregnant women from receiving healthcare. Despite a general preference for biomedical care, 48% of rural and 31% of urban women gave birth outside of a health facility; of those, just 4% and 34%, respectively received skilled assistance. Women expressed mistrust of healthcare workers (HCWs) primarily due to payment demanded for 'free' healthcare. HCWs described lack of pay and poor conditions precluding provision of quality care. Twenty percent of women reported labour complications. Twenty-eight percent of villages had materials to record maternal deaths. Pregnant women faced important barriers to care, particularly in rural areas, leading to high preventable mortality and morbidity. Women wanted to access healthcare, but services available were often costly, unreachable and poor quality. We recommend urgent interventions, including health promotion, free healthcare access and strengthening rural services to address barriers to maternal healthcare.

Outcomes by birth setting and caregiver for low risk women in Indonesia: a systematic literature review.

BACKGROUND: Care for women during pregnancy, labour, birth and the postpartum period is essential to reducing maternal and neonatal mortality and morbidity, however the ideal place and organisation of care provision has not been established. The World Health Organization recommends a two-tier maternity care system involving first-level care in community facilities, with backup obstetric hospital care. However, evidence from high-income countries is increasingly showing benefits for low risk women birthing outside of hospital with skilled birth assistance and access to backup care, including lower rates of intervention. Indonesia is a lower middle-income country with a network of village based midwives who attend births at homes, clinics and hospitals, and has reduced mortality rates in recent decades while maintaining largely low rates of intervention. However, the country has not met its neonatal or maternal mortality reduction goals, and it is unclear whether greater improvements could be made if all women birthed in hospital. BODY: This paper reviewed the literature on birth outcomes by place of birth and/or caregiver for women considering their risk of complications in Indonesia. A systematic literature search of Pubmed, CINAHL, CENTRAL, Web of Science, Popline, WHOLIS and clinical trials registers in 2016 and updated in 2018 resulted in screening 2211 studies after removing duplicates. Twenty four studies were found to present outcomes by place of birth or caregiver and were included. The studies were varied in their findings with respect of the outcomes for women birthing at home and in hospital, with and without skilled care. The quality of most studies was rated as poor or moderate using the Effective Public Health Practice Project Quality Assessment Tool. Only one study gave an overall assessment of the risk status of the women included, making it impossible to draw conclusions about outcomes for low risk women specifically; other studies adjusted for various individual risk factors. CONCLUSION: From the studies in this review, it is impossible to assess the outcomes for low risk women birthing with health professionals within and outside of Indonesian hospitals. This finding is supported by reviews from other countries with developing maternity systems. Better evidence and information is needed before determinations can be made about whether attended birth outside of hospitals is a safe option for low risk women outside of high income countries.

Routine and pulse vaccination for Lassa virus could reduce high levels of endemic disease: A mathematical modelling study.

Lassa fever is an acute viral illness caused by Lassa virus (LASV), a rodent-borne pathogen. LASV is endemic to much of Sub-Saharan West Africa, where seasonal outbreaks cause significant morbidity and mortality. Increased global awareness of LASV has led to development of improved diagnostic tests, treatments and vaccines. As vaccine candidates are trialled, it is essential to assess the potential outcomes of introducing a LASV vaccination program in endemic regions. This study investigates the potential outcomes of routine and pulse vaccination strategies using a deterministic mathematical model that captures seasonal LASV transmission between rodents and humans. For plausible parameter values, we find that immunization of 40% of infants at 70% vaccine effectiveness achieves a population-level reduction in infectious case numbers of 30%, while coverage of 60% at 90% vaccine effectiveness achieves a 56% reduction. Similar reductions can be achieved more rapidly via population-wide pulse vaccination at 11% coverage (30% reduction at 70% effectiveness) or 23% coverage (56% reduction at 90% effectiveness) repeated every 10 years. Similar pulse vaccine doses delivered at reduced frequency, but increased coverage achieves a greater reduction in infectious cases. Findings around infant vaccination are sensitive to our assumption that immunity is life-long, while pulse-vaccination has only slightly reduced effect if immunity lasts 10-30 years. An effective LASV vaccination program would incorporate pulse vaccination in addition to routine childhood immunization to limit disease. Estimates of feasible vaccine coverage and effectiveness are needed to fully quantify the likely benefits of a vaccination program in LASV endemic regions.

Patients' and Doctors' Perceptions of a Mobile Phone-Based Consultation Service for Maternal, Neonatal, and Infant Health Care in Bangladesh: A Mixed-Methods Study.

BACKGROUND: A mobile-based consultation service, or telehealth, can be used for remote consultations with health care professionals for screening, self-care management, and referral. In rural Bangladesh, where there is high demand for scarce male and even scarcer female doctors, remote consultations may help women seeking maternal and child health care. Aponjon is a mHealth service in Bangladesh that provides weekly voice or text messages to pregnant women, new mothers, and family members on various aspects of maternal, neonatal, and infant health. Subscribers can also access a dedicated 24*7 call center to discuss maternal, neonatal, and infant health or emergencies with medically trained doctors. The service provides advice, primary diagnoses, prescriptions, and referrals to subscriber callers. OBJECTIVE: We investigated the Aponjon service to understand access, acceptability, usability, benefits, and challenges of a mobile phone-based consultation service. METHODS: We conducted call log data analysis for September to November 2015 to understand how many unique subscribers accessed the service, who accessed the service, the geographical distribution of callers, and the purpose of the calls. We also conducted a qualitative exploratory substudy of eight married women and eight married men who were subscribers to and accessed the service during this time to understand their experiences. We interviewed 11 doctors from the same service who provided phone consultations to subscribers. RESULTS: Approximately 3894 unique subscribers accessed the service for single or multiple consultations during the study period; 68.36% (2662/3894) of subscribers were from rural households, and 53.00% (2064/3894) of calls were made by pregnant women or new mothers. Approximately 96.08% (5081/5288) calls were nonurgent, 2.69% (142/5288) semiurgent, and 1.23% (65/5288) urgent. Almost 64.7% (134/207) semiurgent or urgent calls came between 8 PM and 8 AM. Callers found the consultation service trustworthy, cost-effective, and convenient. The doctors dispelled misconceptions and promoted good health care practices, regular health check-ups, and responsible use of medicine. They helped families understand the severity of sicknesses and advised them to seek care at health facilities for semiurgent or urgent conditions. The service lacked a pro-poor policy to support talk times of subscribers from poor households and a proper referral system to help patients find the right care at the right facilities. CONCLUSIONS: Although a regular messaging service is constrained by a one-way communication system, this service using the same platform, gave subscribers access to an abbreviated "consultation" with medical doctors. The consultations provided subscribers with valued medical advice and support, although they were limited in their population reach and their integration into the wider medical system. Further research is required to understand the impact of advice and referral, cost-effectiveness, and willingness to pay for mHealth consultation services, but this research suggests that these services should be supported or even expanded.

Protocol for a cluster-randomised controlled trial evaluating the impact of a preschool-based capacity building intervention on intimate partner violence and substance misuse in Sri Lanka.

BACKGROUND: Past research has identified links between intimate partner violence (IPV) and alcohol misuse and poverty in Sri Lanka. Services that address substance misuse are amongst the few interventions shown to reduce IPV in settings similar to Sri Lanka. This paper describes the protocol for a study examining the impact of a preschool-based capacity building intervention on the prevalence of IPV and substance misuse in parents with children attending preschools, including uptake of available government services. METHODS: The study is a cluster randomised controlled trial. Government-managed preschools (n = 34) in Galle and Colombo municipalities  will be randomly assigned to an intervention (n = 17) or control group (n = 17). Parents with children attending these preschools will be recruited to participate. The study intervention will build the capacity of selected community volunteers (parents) and preschool teachers in the provision of information and support to families affected by IPV and substance misuse. This intervention is directed at improving uptake, access and coordination of existing services. Data will be collected from all parents, and teachers in the intervention group, pre-intervention and 10 months post-intervention. The primary outcome for this study is experience of IPV amongst mothers of preschool-attending children. Secondary outcomes are substance misuse amongst fathers, measured via the locally adapted Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test and Drug Abuse Screening Test; and awareness and uptake of services for these issues measured through locally-relevant tools. Demographic information and satisfaction with the intervention will also be assessed. DISCUSSION: By intervening through preschools we aim to support high-risk families early enough to arrest the cycle of violence that results in children themselves becoming victims and perpetrators of such violence. The innovative project design will reach the most vulnerable sections of the community and will provide a sustainable and feasible strategy for scale-up of the intervention. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study is registered with the Sri Lankan Clinical Trials Registry (2017/038) and has been submitted to ClinicalTrials.gov (U.S National Institutes of Health) under the title "Randomized control trial: preschool-based training and support programs to reduce intimate partner violence (IPV) by addressing alcohol and drug misuse in young families in Sri Lanka"; Registration number: NCT03341455 ; Registration date: 14 November 2017.

The factors affecting household transmission dynamics and community compliance with Ebola control measures: a mixed-methods study in a rural village in Sierra Leone.

BACKGROUND: Little is understood of Ebola virus disease (EVD) transmission dynamics and community compliance with control measures over time. Understanding these interactions is essential if interventions are to be effective in future outbreaks. We conducted a mixed-methods study to explore these factors in a rural village that experienced sustained EVD transmission in Kailahun District, Sierra Leone. METHODS: We reconstructed transmission dynamics using a cross-sectional survey conducted in April 2015, and cross-referenced our results with surveillance, burial, and Ebola Management Centre (EMC) data. Factors associated with EVD transmission were assessed with Cox proportional hazards regression. Following the survey, qualitative semi-structured interviews explored views of community informants and households. RESULTS: All households (n = 240; 1161 individuals) participated in the survey. 29 of 31 EVD probable/confirmed cases died (93·5% case fatality rate); six deaths (20·6%) had been missed by other surveillance systems. Transmission over five generations lasted 16 weeks. Although most households had ≤5 members there was a significant increase in risk of Ebola in households with > 5 members. Risk of EVD was also associated with older age. Cases were spatially clustered; all occurred in 15 households. EVD transmission was better understood when the community experience started to concord with public health messages being given. Perceptions of contact tracing changed from invading privacy and selling people to ensuring community safety. Burials in plastic bags, without female attendants or prayer, were perceived as dishonourable. Further reasons for low compliance were low EMC survival rates, family perceptions of a moral duty to provide care to relatives, poor communication with the EMC, and loss of livelihoods due to quarantine. Compliance with response measures increased only after the second generation, coinciding with the implementation of restrictive by-laws, return of the first survivor, reduced contact with dead bodies, and admission of patients to the EMC. CONCLUSIONS: Transmission occurred primarily in a few large households, with prolonged transmission and a high death toll. Return of a survivor to the village and more effective implementation of control strategies coincided with increased compliance to control measures, with few subsequent cases. We propose key recommendations for management of EVD outbreaks based on this experience.

Indigenous health program evaluation design and methods in Australia: a systematic review of the evidence.

OBJECTIVE: Indigenous Australians experience a disproportionately higher burden of disease compared to non-Indigenous Australians. High-quality evaluation of Indigenous health programs is required to inform health and health services improvement. We aimed to quantify methodological and other characteristics of Australian Indigenous health program evaluations published in the peer-reviewed literature. METHODS: Systematic review of peer-reviewed literature (November 2009-2014) on Indigenous health program evaluation. RESULTS: We identified 118 papers describing evaluations of 109 interventions; 72.0% were university/research institution-led. 82.2% of evaluations included a quantitative component; 49.2% utilised quantitative data only and 33.1% used both quantitative and qualitative data. The most common design was a before/after comparison (30.5%, n=36/118). 7.6% of studies (n=9/118) used an experimental design: six individual-level and three cluster-randomised controlled trials. 56.8% (67/118) reported on service delivery/process outcomes (versus health or health risk factor outcomes) only. CONCLUSIONS: Given the number of Indigenous health programs that are implemented, few evaluations overall are published in the peer-reviewed literature and, of these, few use optimal methodologies such as mixed methods and experimental design. Implications for public health: Multiple strategies are required to increase high-quality, accessible evaluation in Indigenous health, including supporting stronger research-policy-practice partnerships and capacity building for evaluation by health services and government.