Actuation of mobility intentions among the young-old: an event-history analysis.

PURPOSE: Although migration decision making is central to understanding later-life migration, the critical step between migration intentions and mobility outcomes has received only limited empirical attention. We address two questions: How often are intended moves actuated? What factors condition the likelihood that mobility intentions will be actuated? DESIGN AND METHODS: We employ data from the 1994-2002 Health and Retirement Study, which is a nationally representative panel targeting households containing persons aged 53 to 63 years at baseline. Event-history techniques are used to examine the link between reported mobility intentions at baseline and mobility outcomes across the study period, net of relevant controls. We conduct separate household-level analyses for couple and noncouple households and recognize three types of moves: local, family oriented, and nonlocal. RESULTS: Findings confirm the utility of mobility expectations as a predictor of future mobility. More importantly, results highlight the complex nature of later-life mobility. The actuation of mobility intentions appears to operate differently in couple than in noncouple households. Moreover, our findings suggest that the role of several key variables depends on the type of move under consideration. IMPLICATIONS: The ability to identify potential "retirement migrants" may be of practical importance for state and local government officials as well as developers interested in recruiting or retaining young-old residents. Our study offers insight on the interpretation of stated mobility intentions. Moreover, consistent with early theoretical work in the field, our analysis suggests that empirical studies must account for heterogeneity among older movers in order to avoid misleading results.

Predictors of non-local moves among older adults: a prospective study.

OBJECTIVES: The goal of this article was to test a series of established predictors of the hazard of moving for persons primarily in their 50s and 60s. We tested demographic covariates, resources, travel experience, and community and person ties using a prospective design. METHODS: We employed data from the Health and Retirement Study, 1994 to 2002, based on a representative sample of households containing at least one member aged 51 to 61 in 1992. We employed measures available in the Health and Retirement Study to construct a series of Cox proportional hazards models that examined the causes of non-local moves. RESULTS: Community and person ties emerged as important predictors of non-local moves. DISCUSSION: Travel experience, when measured by regular vacationing and second homes, may increase community ties to a destination. The life-course model must be modified in its explanation of the importance of community and person ties, and of life transitions, as motivators of migration.

In retirement migration, who counts? A methodological question with economic policy implications.

PURPOSE: We examine the methodological and economic policy implications of three operations of retirement migration. DESIGN AND METHODS: We compared the traditional age-based definition of retirement migration and two retirement-based definitions, based on degree of labor-force participation and retirement income, by using the 2000 U.S. Census Public Use Microdata Sample. RESULTS: The age-based definition overestimated the number of retired migrants, although the ranking of host and donor states remained relatively stable; nevertheless, states revealed different rates of change in inmigration and outmigration and income streams declined. IMPLICATIONS: Retirement-based definitions are more useful and precise for those researchers considering the economic implication of retirement migration.

Our "increasingly mobile society"? The curious persistence of a false belief.

PURPOSE: We call attention to the widespread belief that the United States is an "increasingly mobile society," despite the fact that overall mobility has generally declined since about 1950, and interstate mobility has generally not increased during the same period. We review and extend past research documenting these mobility trends. DESIGN AND METHODS: We describe population-level mobility for people of all ages as well as for several adult age groups, using published data from the U.S. Current Population Survey. We use simple regression methods to estimate the size and significance of mobility trends. RESULTS: Overall mobility rates have declined for individuals of all ages and among all age groups. The largest average annual declines occur for 20- to 29-year-olds, although the rate of decline for those aged 65 and older is also large. Interstate mobility has declined slightly or remained constant, except among adults between 45 and 64 years old. IMPLICATIONS: Although there may be good reasons to worry about the future of family care provided to elderly individuals, increased geographic mobility does not appear to be one of them. We speculate on reasons why the false belief persists.

A first look at retirement migration trends in 2000.

PURPOSE: This brief report takes a look at the preliminary estimates of the number and proportion of migrants over the age of 60 who moved to and from states between 1995 and 2000 and compares these estimates with those who made the same kind of move one decade earlier. DESIGN AND METHODS: The 2000 census 1-in-100 public-use microdata sample, released in the summer of 2003, and the 1-in-20 sample from the 1990 census, were compared in this analysis. Point estimates of 100% were created for the inflows and outflows for the top 10 states in these two census decades. Net migration was also considered. RESULTS: The total estimated number of older interstate migrants increased to over 2 million during the 1995-2000 migration period. Florida declined slightly in its position as the dominant destination for a second decade, indicating a downward trend for the first time. Arizona became the second largest receiving state, next to Florida, and California approached New York's dominance as a migration origin, or sending, state. Nevada entered the top ranking retirement states for the first time. IMPLICATIONS: Long-term migration dynamics of the older population may reflect perceived shifts in quality of life in destination states. Nonetheless, the next two decades will see a substantial rise in the number of older migrants.