Economic-based projections of future land use in the conterminous United States under alternative policy scenarios.

Land-use change significantly contributes to biodiversity loss, invasive species spread, changes in biogeochemical cycles, and the loss of ecosystem services. Planning for a sustainable future requires a thorough understanding of expected land use at the fine spatial scales relevant for modeling many ecological processes and at dimensions appropriate for regional or national-level policy making. Our goal was to construct and parameterize an econometric model of land-use change to project future land use to the year 2051 at a fine spatial scale across the conterminous United States under several alternative land-use policy scenarios. We parameterized the econometric model of land-use change with the National Resource Inventory (NRI) 1992 and 1997 land-use data for 844 000 sample points. Land-use transitions were estimated for five land-use classes (cropland, pasture, range, forest, and urban). We predicted land-use change under four scenarios: business-as-usual, afforestation, removal of agricultural subsidies, and increased urban rents. Our results for the business-as-usual scenario showed widespread changes in land use, affecting 36% of the land area of the conterminous United States, with large increases in urban land (79%) and forest (7%), and declines in cropland (-16%) and pasture (-13%). Areas with particularly high rates of land-use change included the larger Chicago area, parts of the Pacific Northwest, and the Central Valley of California. However, while land-use change was substantial, differences in results among the four scenarios were relatively minor. The only scenario that was markedly different was the afforestation scenario, which resulted in an increase of forest area that was twice as high as the business-as-usual scenario. Land-use policies can affect trends, but only so much. The basic economic and demographic factors shaping land-use changes in the United States are powerful, and even fairly dramatic policy changes, showed only moderate deviations from the business-as-usual scenario. Given the magnitude of predicted land-use change, any attempts to identify a sustainable future or to predict the effects of climate change will have to take likely land-use changes into account. Econometric models that can simulate land-use change for broad areas with fine resolution are necessary to predict trends in ecosystem service provision and biodiversity persistence.

Preliminary assessment of methods used to demonstrate nut-cracking behavior to five captive chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes).

Chimpanzees acquire nut-cracking skills by observation and trial and error. Studies of captive chimpanzees have shown the effectiveness of a skilled demonstrator. We examined the effectiveness of 3 live demonstration forms from which subjects could learn nut-cracking skills: a video of proficient conspecifics, human demonstration and the presence of a skilled conspecific performing the task. A male subject did not learn to crack open nuts after viewing a video of proficient conspecifics but quickly learned the skill following a demonstration by a human facilitator. Subsequently, 4 female chimpanzees were given the opportunity to learn the skill from the now proficient male, as well as from a video and human demonstration, but failed to do so.

Interactions between zoo-housed great apes and local wildlife.

Although there are published reports of wild chimpanzees, bonobos, and orangutans hunting and consuming vertebrate prey, data pertaining to captive apes remain sparse. In this survey-based study, we evaluate the prevalence and nature of interactions between captive great apes and various indigenous wildlife species that range into their enclosures in North America. Our hypotheses were threefold: (a) facilities housing chimpanzees will report the most frequent and most aggressive interactions with local wildlife; (b) facilities housing orangutans and bonobos will report intermediate frequencies of these interactions with low levels of aggression and killing; and (c) facilities housing gorillas will report the lowest frequency of interactions and no reports of killing local wildlife. Chimpanzees and bonobos demonstrated the most aggressive behavior toward wildlife, which matched our predictions for chimpanzees, but not bonobos. This fits well with expectations for chimpanzees based on their natural history of hunting and consuming prey in wild settings, and also supports new field data on bonobos. Captive gorillas and orangutans were reported to be much less likely to chase, catch and kill wildlife than chimpanzees and bonobos. Gorillas were the least likely to engage in aggressive interactions with local wildlife, matching our predictions based on natural history. However unlike wild gorillas, captive gorillas were reported to kill (and in one case, eat) local wildlife. These results suggest that some behavioral patterns seen in captive groups of apes may be useful for modeling corresponding activities in the wild that may not be as easily observed and quantified. Furthermore, the data highlight the potential for disease transmission in some captive settings, and we outline the associated implications for ape health and safety.

Causes of death in the Kasekela chimpanzees of Gombe National Park, Tanzania.

Understanding the rates and causes of mortality in wild chimpanzee populations has important implications for a variety of fields, including wildlife conservation and human evolution. Because chimpanzees are long-lived, accurate mortality data requires very long-term studies. Here, we analyze 47 years of data on the Kasekela community in Gombe National Park. Community size fluctuated between 38 and 60, containing 60 individuals in 2006. From records on 220 chimpanzees and 130 deaths, we found that the most important cause of mortality in the Kasekela community was illness (58% of deaths with known cause), followed by intraspecific aggression (20% of deaths with known cause). Previous studies at other sites also found that illness was the primary cause of mortality and that some epidemic disease could be traced to humans. As at other study sites, most deaths due to illness occurred during epidemics, and the most common category of disease was respiratory. Intraspecific lethal aggression occurred within the community, including the killing of infants by both males and females, and among adult males during the course of dominance-related aggression. Aggression between communities resulted in the deaths of at least five adult males and two adult females in the Kasekela and Kahama communities. The frequency of intercommunity violence appears to vary considerably among sites and over time. Intercommunity lethal aggression involving the Kasekela community was observed most frequently during two periods. Other less common causes of death included injury, loss of mother, maternal disability, and poaching.

Genetic structure of a foundation species: scaling community phenotypes from the individual to the region.

Understanding the local and regional patterns of species distributions has been a major goal of ecological and evolutionary research. The notion that these patterns can be understood through simple quantitative rules is attractive, but while numerous scaling laws exist (e.g., metabolic, fractals), we are aware of no studies that have placed individual traits and community structure together within a genetics based scaling framework. We document the potential for a genetic basis to the scaling of ecological communities, largely based upon our long-term studies of poplars (Populus spp.). The genetic structure and diversity of these foundation species affects riparian ecosystems and determines a much larger community of dependent organisms. Three examples illustrate these ideas. First, there is a strong genetic basis to phytochemistry and tree architecture (both above- and belowground), which can affect diverse organisms and ecosystem processes. Second, empirical studies in the wild show that the local patterns of genetics based community structure scale up to western North America. At multiple spatial scales the arthropod community phenotype is related to the genetic distance among plants that these arthropods depend upon for survival. Third, we suggest that the familiar species-area curve, in which species richness is a function of area, is also a function of genetic diversity. We find that arthropod species richness is closely correlated with the genetic marker diversity and trait variance suggesting a genetic component to these curves. Finally, we discuss how genetic variation can interact with environmental variation to affect community attributes across geographic scales along with conservation implications.

Using retrospective health data from the Gombe chimpanzee study to inform future monitoring efforts.

Disease outbreaks, either in isolation or in concert with other risk factors, can pose serious threats to the long-term persistence of mammal populations, and these risks become elevated as population size decreases and/or population isolation increases. Many chimpanzee study sites are increasingly isolated by loss of habitat due to human encroachment, and managers of parks that contain chimpanzees perceive that disease outbreaks have been and continue to be significant causes of mortality for chimpanzees. Major epidemics at Gombe National Park include suspected polio in 1966; respiratory diseases in 1968, 1987, 1996, 2000, and 2002; and sarcoptic mange in 1997. These outbreaks have led park managers and researchers working in Gombe to conclude that disease poses a substantial risk to the long-term survival of Gombe's chimpanzee population. We surveyed behavioral data records spanning 44 years for health-related data and found a combination of standardized and nonstandardized data for the entire period. Here we present the types of data found during the survey, discuss the usefulness of these data in the context of risk assessment, and describe how our current monitoring effort at Gombe was designed based on our findings.

Community heritability measures the evolutionary consequences of indirect genetic effects on community structure.

The evolutionary analysis of community organization is considered a major frontier in biology. Nevertheless, current explanations for community structure exclude the effects of genes and selection at levels above the individual. Here, we demonstrate a genetic basis for community structure, arising from the fitness consequences of genetic interactions among species (i.e., interspecific indirect genetic effects or IIGEs). Using simulated and natural communities of arthropods inhabiting North American cottonwoods (Populus), we show that when species comprising ecological communities are summarized using a multivariate statistical method, nonmetric multidimensional scaling (NMDS), the resulting univariate scores can be analyzed using standard techniques for estimating the heritability of quantitative traits. Our estimates of the broad-sense heritability of arthropod communities on known genotypes of cottonwood trees in common gardens explained 56-63% of the total variation in community phenotype. To justify and help interpret our empirical approach, we modeled synthetic communities in which the number, intensity, and fitness consequences of the genetic interactions among species comprising the community were explicitly known. Results from the model suggest that our empirical estimates of broad-sense community heritability arise from heritable variation in a host tree trait and the fitness consequences of IGEs that extend from tree trait to arthropods. When arthropod traits are heritable, interspecific IGEs cause species interactions to change, and community evolution occurs. Our results have implications for establishing the genetic foundations of communities and ecosystems.