ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Prolonged levodopa treatment in Parkinson's disease (PD) often leads to motor complications, including levodopa-induced dyskinesia (LID). Despite continuous levodopa treatment, some patients do not develop LID symptoms, even in later stages of the disease. OBJECTIVE: This study explores machine learning (ML) methods using baseline clinical characteristics to predict the development of LID in PD patients over four years, across multiple cohorts. METHODS: Using interpretable ML approaches, we analyzed clinical data from three independent longitudinal PD cohorts (LuxPARK, n = 356; PPMI, n = 484; ICEBERG, n = 113) to develop cross-cohort prognostic models and identify potential predictors for the development of LID. We examined cohort-specific and shared predictive factors, assessing model performance and stability through cross-validation analyses. RESULTS: Consistent cross-validation results for single and multiple cohort analyses highlighted the effectiveness of the ML models and identified baseline clinical characteristics with significant predictive value for the LID prognosis in PD. Predictors positively correlated with LID include axial symptoms, freezing of gait, and rigidity in the lower extremities. Conversely, the risk of developing LID was inversely associated with the occurrence of resting tremors, higher body weight, later onset of PD, and visuospatial abilities. CONCLUSIONS: This study presents interpretable ML models for dyskinesia prognosis with significant predictive power in cross-cohort analyses. The models may pave the way for proactive interventions against dyskinesia in PD by optimizing levodopa dosing regimens and adjunct treatments with dopamine agonists or MAO-B inhibitors, and by employing non-pharmacological interventions such as dietary adjustments affecting levodopa absorption for high-risk LID patients.
ABSTRACT
Parkinson's disease (PD) is a highly heterogeneous disorder influenced by several environmental and genetic factors. Effective disease-modifying therapies and robust early-stage biomarkers are still lacking, and an improved understanding of the molecular changes in PD could help to reveal new diagnostic markers and pharmaceutical targets. Here, we report results from a cohort-wide blood plasma metabolic profiling of PD patients and controls in the Luxembourg Parkinson's Study to detect disease-associated alterations at the level of systemic cellular process and network alterations. We identified statistically significant changes in both individual metabolite levels and global pathway activities in PD vs. controls and significant correlations with motor impairment scores. As a primary observation when investigating shared molecular sub-network alterations, we detect pronounced and coordinated increased metabolite abundances in xanthine metabolism in de novo patients, which are consistent with previous PD case/control transcriptomics data from an independent cohort in terms of known enzyme-metabolite network relationships. From the integrated metabolomics and transcriptomics network analysis, the enzyme hypoxanthine phosphoribosyltransferase 1 (HPRT1) is determined as a potential key regulator controlling the shared changes in xanthine metabolism and linking them to a mechanism that may contribute to pathological loss of cellular adenosine triphosphate (ATP) in PD. Overall, the investigations revealed significant PD-associated metabolome alterations, including pronounced changes in xanthine metabolism that are mechanistically congruent with alterations observed in independent transcriptomics data. The enzyme HPRT1 may merit further investigation as a main regulator of these network alterations and as a potential therapeutic target to address downstream molecular pathology in PD.
