A connection between survival multistate models and causal inference for external treatment interruptions.

Recently, treatment interruptions such as a clinical hold in randomized clinical trials have been investigated by using a multistate model approach. The phase III clinical trial START (Stimulating Targeted Antigenic Response To non-small-cell cancer) with primary endpoint overall survival was temporarily placed on hold for enrollment and treatment by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Multistate models provide a flexible framework to account for treatment interruptions induced by a time-dependent external covariate. Extending previous work, we propose a censoring and a filtering approach both aimed at estimating the initial treatment effect on overall survival in the hypothetical situation of no clinical hold. A special focus is on creating a link to causal inference. We show that calculating the matrix of transition probabilities in the multistate model after application of censoring (or filtering) yields the desired causal interpretation. Assumptions in support of the identification of a causal effect by censoring (or filtering) are discussed. Thus, we provide the basis to apply causal censoring (or filtering) in more general settings such as the COVID-19 pandemic. A simulation study demonstrates that both causal censoring and filtering perform favorably compared to a naïve method ignoring the external impact.

Model-informed approach for risk management of bleeding toxicities for bintrafusp alfa, a bifunctional fusion protein targeting TGF-ß and PD-L1.

PURPOSE: Bintrafusp alfa (BA) is a bifunctional fusion protein composed of the extracellular domain of the transforming growth factor-ß (TGF-ß) receptor II fused to a human immunoglobulin G1 antibody blocking programmed death ligand 1 (PD-L1). The recommended phase 2 dose (RP2D) was selected based on phase 1 efficacy, safety, and pharmacokinetic (PK)-pharmacodynamic data, assuming continuous inhibition of PD-L1 and TGF-ß is required. Here, we describe a model-informed dose modification approach for risk management of BA-associated bleeding adverse events (AEs). METHODS: The PK and AE data from studies NCT02517398, NCT02699515, NCT03840915, and NCT04246489 (n = 936) were used. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to evaluate potential relationships between bleeding AEs and BA time-averaged concentration (Cavg), derived using a population PK model. The percentage of patients with trough concentrations associated with PD-L1 or TGF-ß inhibition across various dosing regimens was derived. RESULTS: The probability of bleeding AEs increased with increasing Cavg; 50% dose reduction was chosen based on the integration of modeling and clinical considerations. The resulting AE management guidance to investigators regarding temporary or permanent treatment discontinuation was further refined with recommendations on restarting at RP2D or at 50% dose, depending on the grade and type of bleeding (tumoral versus nontumoral) and investigator assessment of risk of additional bleeding. CONCLUSION: A pragmatic model-informed approach for management of bleeding AEs was implemented in ongoing clinical trials of BA. This approach is expected to improve benefit-risk profile; however, its effectiveness will need to be evaluated based on safety data generated after implementation.

Survival analysis for AdVerse events with VarYing follow-up times (SAVVY)-estimation of adverse event risks.

BACKGROUND: The SAVVY project aims to improve the analyses of adverse events (AEs), whether prespecified or emerging, in clinical trials through the use of survival techniques appropriately dealing with varying follow-up times and competing events (CEs). Although statistical methodologies have advanced, in AE analyses, often the incidence proportion, the incidence density, or a non-parametric Kaplan-Meier estimator are used, which ignore either censoring or CEs. In an empirical study including randomized clinical trials from several sponsor organizations, these potential sources of bias are investigated. The main purpose is to compare the estimators that are typically used to quantify AE risk within trial arms to the non-parametric Aalen-Johansen estimator as the gold-standard for estimating cumulative AE probabilities. A follow-up paper will consider consequences when comparing safety between treatment groups. METHODS: Estimators are compared with descriptive statistics, graphical displays, and a more formal assessment using a random effects meta-analysis. The influence of different factors on the size of deviations from the gold-standard is investigated in a meta-regression. Comparisons are conducted at the maximum follow-up time and at earlier evaluation times. CEs definition does not only include death before AE but also end of follow-up for AEs due to events related to the disease course or safety of the treatment. RESULTS: Ten sponsor organizations provided 17 clinical trials including 186 types of investigated AEs. The one minus Kaplan-Meier estimator was on average about 1.2-fold larger than the Aalen-Johansen estimator and the probability transform of the incidence density ignoring CEs was even 2-fold larger. The average bias using the incidence proportion was less than 5%. Assuming constant hazards using incidence densities was hardly an issue provided that CEs were accounted for. The meta-regression showed that the bias depended mainly on the amount of censoring and on the amount of CEs. CONCLUSIONS: The choice of the estimator of the cumulative AE probability and the definition of CEs are crucial. We recommend using the Aalen-Johansen estimator with an appropriate definition of CEs whenever the risk for AEs is to be quantified and to change the guidelines accordingly.

Multistate modeling of clinical hold in randomized clinical trials.

A clinical hold order by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to the sponsor of a clinical trial is a measure to delay a proposed or to suspend an ongoing clinical investigation. The phase III clinical trial START serves as motivating data example to explore implications and potential statistical approaches for a trial continuing after a clinical hold is lifted. In spite of a modified intention-to-treat (ITT) analysis introduced to account for the clinical hold by excluding patients potentially affected most by the clinical hold, results of the trial did not show a significant improvement of overall survival duration, and the question remains whether the negative result was an effect of the clinical hold. In this paper, we propose a multistate model incorporating the clinical hold as well as disease progression as intermediate events to investigate the impact of the clinical hold on the treatment effect. Moreover, we consider a simple counterfactual censoring approach as alternative strategy to the modified ITT analysis to deal with a clinical hold. Using a realistic simulation study informed by the START data and with a design based on our multistate model, we show that the modified ITT analysis used in the START trial was reasonable. However, the censoring approach will be shown to have some benefits in terms of power and flexibility.

Evaluation of the potential for QTc prolongation with avelumab.

PURPOSE: To report integrated electrocardiogram (ECG) summary and exposure-QTc analyses for avelumab, a human immunoglobulin G1 monoclonal antibody that binds programmed cell death 1 ligand 1, to assess potential effects on cardiac repolarization. METHODS: Data were pooled from three-phase 1/2 studies of patients with advanced solid tumors who received avelumab monotherapy (22,000 ECGs from 1818 patients). All analyses used 12-lead singlet ECGs taken using local ECG machines before and approximately 2 h after avelumab infusion on prespecified days. The exposure-QTc and outlier analyses used locally read ECGs; since larger variability is known to be associated with local reading, outlier ECGs were subsequently reevaluated by central read. QTc derived from Fridericia's formula (QTcF) and a project-specific formula (QTcP) were analyzed. Multivariable linear mixed-effects models were used to describe the relationship between serum concentration of avelumab and QTc absolute value or change from baseline (ΔQTc). RESULTS: Exposure-QTc models showed that the effect of avelumab on QTc or ΔQTc was minimal and not statistically significant for both QTcP and QTcF. In addition, models including avelumab concentration and diphenhydramine premedication use did not show a clinically meaningful effect on the QT interval. The frequency of QTc outliers in both short and long ranges was overestimated by local reads. Six patients (0.3%) were QTc outliers; all had either received concomitant medication known to cause QT prolongation or had a preexisting cardiac condition. CONCLUSION: Avelumab does not have any clinically relevant effect on cardiac repolarization.

On estimands and the analysis of adverse events in the presence of varying follow-up times within the benefit assessment of therapies.

The analysis of adverse events (AEs) is a key component in the assessment of a drug's safety profile. Inappropriate analysis methods may result in misleading conclusions about a therapy's safety and consequently its benefit-risk ratio. The statistical analysis of AEs is complicated by the fact that the follow-up times can vary between the patients included in a clinical trial. This paper takes as its focus the analysis of AE data in the presence of varying follow-up times within the benefit assessment of therapeutic interventions. Instead of approaching this issue directly and solely from an analysis point of view, we first discuss what should be estimated in the context of safety data, leading to the concept of estimands. Although the current discussion on estimands is mainly related to efficacy evaluation, the concept is applicable to safety endpoints as well. Within the framework of estimands, we present statistical methods for analysing AEs with the focus being on the time to the occurrence of the first AE of a specific type. We give recommendations which estimators should be used for the estimands described. Furthermore, we state practical implications of the analysis of AEs in clinical trials and give an overview of examples across different indications. We also provide a review of current practices of health technology assessment (HTA) agencies with respect to the evaluation of safety data. Finally, we describe problems with meta-analyses of AE data and sketch possible solutions.

Safety profile of avelumab in patients with advanced solid tumors: A pooled analysis of data from the phase 1 JAVELIN solid tumor and phase 2 JAVELIN Merkel 200 clinical trials.

BACKGROUND: Antibodies targeting the programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1)/programmed cell death protein 1 (PD-1) checkpoint may cause adverse events (AEs) that are linked to the mechanism of action of this therapeutic class and unique from those observed with conventional chemotherapy. METHODS: Patients with advanced solid tumors who were enrolled in the phase 1 JAVELIN Solid Tumor (1650 patients) and phase 2 JAVELIN Merkel 200 (88 patients) trials received avelumab, a human anti-PD-L1 IgG1 antibody at a dose of 10 mg/kg every 2 weeks. Treatment-related AEs (TRAEs) were graded using the National Cancer Institute Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (version 4.0). In post hoc analyses, immune-related AEs (irAEs) were identified via an expanded AE list and medical review, and infusion-related reactions (IRRs) occurring ≤2 days after infusion and symptoms occurring ≤1 day after infusion and resolving ≤2 days after onset were identified based on prespecified Medical Dictionary for Regulatory Activities (MedDRA) terms. RESULTS: Of the 1738 patients analyzed, grade ≥3 TRAEs occurred in 177 (10.2%); the most common were fatigue (17 patients; 1.0%) and IRR (10 patients; 0.6%). TRAEs led to discontinuation in 107 patients (6.2%) and death in 4 patients (0.2%). Grade ≥3 irAEs occurred in 39 patients (2.2%) and led to discontinuation in 34 patients (2.0%). IRRs or related symptoms occurred in 439 patients (25.3%; grade 3 in 0.5% [9 patients] and grade 4 in 0.2% [3 patients]). An IRR occurred at the time of first infusion in 79.5% of 439 patients who had an IRR, within the first 4 doses in 98.6% of 439 patients who had an IRR, and led to discontinuation in 35 patients (2.0%). CONCLUSIONS: Avelumab generally was found to be well tolerated and to have a manageable safety profile. A minority of patients experienced grade ≥3 TRAEs or irAEs, and discontinuation was uncommon. IRRs occurred mainly at the time of first infusion, and repeated events were infrequent. Cancer 2018;124:2010-7. © 2018 The Authors. Cancer published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Cancer Society. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes.

Reduced incidence of infusion-related reactions in metastatic colorectal cancer during treatment with cetuximab plus irinotecan with combined corticosteroid and antihistamine premedication.

BACKGROUND: : The multinational MABEL study of 1147 patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) who had recently failed an irinotecan-containing regimen confirmed in a community practice setting the efficacy and safety of cetuximab combined with irinotecan. METHODS: : This report describes a post hoc analysis of the influence of prophylactic premedication on the incidence of infusion-related reactions (IRRs) in the MABEL study. The analysis was focused on the subpopulation of patients premedicated with antihistamines either with (n = 700) or without (n = 422) corticosteroids. Stepwise Cox regression modeling was used to examine the explanatory value of the type of premedication on progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) times. RESULTS: : The incidence of IRRs was lower in the group of patients who received antihistamine plus corticosteroid (9.6%) compared with those who received antihistamine alone (25.6%). A similar trend was seen for grade 3 or 4 IRRs (1.0% vs 4.7%, respectively). The 12-week PFS rates (61% vs 60%), median PFS (16.1 vs 13.1 weeks) and OS (9.2 vs 9.0 months) times for patients who received, respectively, antihistamines with and without corticosteroids were similar. Cox regression modeling did not identify any impact of type of premedication used (antihistamine with or without corticosteroids) on the efficacy of treatment in relation to PFS or OS. CONCLUSIONS: : Prophylactically premedicating mCRC patients with both antihistamine and a corticosteroid appeared to reduce the frequency of cetuximab-associated IRRs. Given that this was a post hoc analysis, caution must be exercised in the interpretation of these data, which require formal confirmation in a randomized study. Cancer 2010. (c) 2010 American Cancer Society.

Cetuximab in combination with irinotecan/5-fluorouracil/folinic acid (FOLFIRI) in the initial treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer: a multicentre two-part phase I/II study.

BACKGROUND: This study was designed to investigate the efficacy and safety of the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) inhibitor cetuximab combined with irinotecan, folinic acid (FA) and two different doses of infusional 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) in the first-line treatment of EGFR-detectable metastatic colorectal cancer. METHODS: The 5-FU dose was selected on the basis of dose-limiting toxicities (DLTs) during part I of the study. Patients received cetuximab (400 mg/m2 initial dose and 250 mg/m2/week thereafter) and every 2 weeks irinotecan (180 mg/m2), FA (400 mg/m2) and 5-FU (either low dose [LD], 300 mg/m2 bolus plus 2,000 mg/m2 46-hour infusion, n = 7; or, high-dose [HD], 400 mg/m2 bolus plus 2,400 mg/m2; n = 45). RESULTS: Only two DLTs occurred in the HD group, and HD 5-FU was selected for use in part II. Apart from rash, commonly observed grade 3/4 adverse events such as leucopenia, diarrhoea, vomiting and asthenia occurred within the expected range for FOLFIRI. Among 52 patients, the overall response rate was 48%. Median progression-free survival (PFS) was 8.6 months (counting all reported progressions) and the median overall survival was 22.4 months. Treatment facilitated the resection of initially unresectable metastases in fourteen patients (27%): of these, 10 patients (71%) had no residual tumour after surgery, and these resections hindered the estimation of PFS. CONCLUSION: The combination of cetuximab and FOLFIRI was active and well tolerated in this setting. Initially unresectable metastases became resectable in one-quarter of patients, with a high number of complete resections, and these promising results formed the basis for the investigation of FOLFIRI with and without cetuximab in the phase III CRYSTAL trial.

Fluorouracil, leucovorin, and oxaliplatin with and without cetuximab in the first-line treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer.

PURPOSE: This randomized study assessed whether the best overall response rate (ORR) of cetuximab combined with oxaliplatin, leucovorin, and fluorouracil (FOLFOX-4) was superior to that of FOLFOX-4 alone as first-line treatment for metastatic colorectal cancer. The influence of KRAS mutation status was investigated. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients received cetuximab (400 mg/m(2) initial dose followed by 250 mg/m(2)/wk thereafter) plus FOLFOX-4 (oxaliplatin 85 mg/m(2) on day 1, plus leucovorin 200 mg/m(2) and fluorouracil as a 400 mg/m(2) bolus followed by a 600 mg/m(2) infusion during 22 hours on days 1 and 2; n = 169) or FOLFOX-4 alone (n = 168). Treatment was continued until disease progression or unacceptable toxicity. KRAS mutation status was assessed in the subset of patients with assessable tumor samples (n = 233). RESULTS: The confirmed ORR for cetuximab plus FOLFOX-4 was higher than with FOLFOX-4 alone (46% v 36%). A statistically significant increase in the odds for a response with the addition of cetuximab to FOLFOX-4 could not be established (odds ratio = 1.52; P = .064). In patients with KRAS wild-type tumors, the addition of cetuximab to FOLFOX-4 was associated with a clinically significant increased chance of response (ORR = 61% v 37%; odds ratio = 2.54; P = .011) and a lower risk of disease progression (hazard ratio = 0.57; P = .0163) compared with FOLFOX-4 alone. Cetuximab plus FOLFOX-4 was generally well tolerated. CONCLUSION: KRAS mutational status was shown to be a highly predictive selection criterion in relation to the treatment decision regarding the addition of cetuximab to FOLFOX-4 for previously untreated patients with metastatic colorectal cancer.

Cetuximab plus irinotecan in heavily pretreated metastatic colorectal cancer progressing on irinotecan: MABEL Study.

PURPOSE: This large, multinational study aimed to confirm in a community practice setting the efficacy and safety of cetuximab plus irinotecan in patients with epidermal growth factor-expressing metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) who had recently failed an irinotecan-containing regimen. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The primary objective was to determine the progression-free survival (PFS) rate at 12 weeks. The initial cetuximab dose was 400 mg/m(2) and was followed weekly by 250 mg/m(2); irinotecan (according to prestudy regimen) was given weekly (125 mg/m(2) weekly for 4 of 6 weeks), every 2 weeks (180 mg/m(2) each), or every 3 weeks (350 mg/m(2) each). RESULTS: The intention-to-treat/safety population comprised 1,147 treated patients who received irinotecan weekly (n = 93); every 2 weeks (n = 670); every 3 weeks (n = 356); or another dose (n = 28). The PFS rate at 12 weeks was 61%, and the median survival was 9.2 months. Treatment was generally well tolerated. The most common treatment-related grades 3 to 4 adverse events were diarrhea (19%), neutropenia (10%), rash (7%), and asthenia (6%). The rate of grades 3 to 4 infusion-related reactions (IRRs; composite adverse event category) was 1% for patients who received both antihistamine and corticosteroid premedication. CONCLUSION Tolerability (except IRR incidence), PFS rate, and overall survival rate were in line with previous results. At 1%, the rate of IRRs in patients who received prophylactic premedication with both antihistamine and corticosteroid is lower than previously reported. MABEL clearly confirms in a community practice setting the efficacy and safety of cetuximab plus irinotecan in the treatment of mCRC.

Cancer consequences of the Chernobyl accident: 20 years on.

26 April 2006 marks the 20th anniversary of the Chernobyl accident. On this occasion, the World Health Organization (WHO), within the UN Chernobyl Forum initiative, convened an Expert Group to evaluate the health impacts of Chernobyl. This paper summarises the findings relating to cancer. A dramatic increase in the incidence of thyroid cancer has been observed among those exposed to radioactive iodines in childhood and adolescence in the most contaminated territories. Iodine deficiency may have increased the risk of developing thyroid cancer following exposure to radioactive iodines, while prolonged stable iodine supplementation in the years after exposure may reduce this risk. Although increases in rates of other cancers have been reported, much of these increases appear to be due to other factors, including improvements in registration, reporting and diagnosis. Studies are few, however, and have methodological limitations. Further, because most radiation-related solid cancers continue to occur decades after exposure and because only 20 years have passed since the accident, it is too early to evaluate the full radiological impact of the accident. Apart from the large increase in thyroid cancer incidence in young people, there are at present no clearly demonstrated radiation-related increases in cancer risk. This should not, however, be interpreted to mean that no increase has in fact occurred: based on the experience of other populations exposed to ionising radiation, a small increase in the relative risk of cancer is expected, even at the low to moderate doses received. Although it is expected that epidemiological studies will have difficulty identifying such a risk, it may nevertheless translate into a substantial number of radiation-related cancer cases in the future, given the very large number of individuals exposed.

Microbiological quality of carbonated drinking water produced with in-home carbonation systems.

The microbiological quality of carbonated water produced with tap water in commercial in-home carbonation systems was determined, the results being discussed in the context of the microbiological quality of the tap water used, the properties of the drink makers, and the procedures of preparation and washing of various parts of the appliance. The last-mentioned data were received from each participant of the study by questionnaire. Escherichia coli, coliforms, fecal streptococci and spore-forming sulphite-reducing anaerobes were used as indicators for the hygienic quality of the water. Tap-water samples were collected according to the usual procedure when filling the carbonating bottle, i.e., without previous flushing and disinfection of the faucet. In 12% of tap-water samples, coliforms could be detected. On the other hand, in 20 of 52 carbonated waters (39%), coliforms as indicators of water pollution were found. By means of fecal streptococci and Pseudomonas aeruginosa, it was possible to establish additional contamination not involving E. coli or coliforms alone. Analysis revealed that, in addition to contaminated tap water, a bacterial biofilm on the inner surface of the re-usable bottles had a predominant influence on the microbiological quality of the carbonated water.

Geographic and temporal variations in cancer of the corpus uteri: incidence and mortality in pre- and postmenopausal women in Europe.

Corpus uteri cancer is the fourth most common neoplasm in women in Europe and the tenth most common cause of cancer death. We examined geographic and temporal variations in corpus uteri cancer incidence and mortality rates in the age groups 25-49 and 50-74 in 22 European countries. The disease is considerably less common in premenopausal women, with incidence and mortality rates decreasing throughout Europe and mortality declines more marked in western and southern European countries. Incidence rates among postmenopausal women are highest in the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Sweden and Slovenia and lowest in France and the United Kingdom. Increasing incidence trends in this age group are observed in the Nordic countries (except Denmark) and in the United Kingdom. Some increases are also seen in eastern (Slovakia) and southern Europe (Spain and Slovenia), while relatively stable or modestly decreasing trends are observed in Italy and most western European countries. Postmenopausal mortality rates are systematically higher in eastern Europe, with death rates in the Ukraine, Latvia, Czech Republic, Russia and Belarus 2-3 times those seen in western Europe. Declining mortality trends are seen in most populations, though in certain Eastern European countries, the declines began rather recently, during the 1980s. In Belarus and Russia, recent postmenopausal death rates are stable or increasing. The rates are adjusted for misclassification of uterine cancer deaths but remain unadjusted for hysterectomy, and where there is an apparent levelling off of incidence or mortality rates recently, rising prevalence of hysterectomy cannot be discounted as an explanation. However, the trends by age group can be viewed in light of several established risk factors for endometrial cancer that are highly prevalent and most likely changing with time. These are discussed, as are the prospects for preventing the disease.

Trends in cervical squamous cell carcinoma incidence in 13 European countries: changing risk and the effects of screening.

Despite there being sufficient evidence for the effectiveness of screening by cytology in preventing cancer of the cervix uteri, screening policies vary widely among European countries, and incidence is increasing in younger women. This study analyzes trends in squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) of the cervix uteri in 13 European countries to evaluate effectiveness of screening against a background of changing risk. Age-period-cohort models were fitted and period and cohort effects were estimated; these were considered as primarily indicative of screening interventions and changing etiology, respectively. A unique set of estimates was derived by fixing age slopes to one of several plausible age curves under the assumption that the relation between age and cervical cancer incidence is biologically determined. There were period-specific declines in cervical SCC in several countries, with the largest decreases seen in northern Europe. A pattern emerged across Europe of escalating risk in successive generations born after 1930. In the western European countries, a decrease followed by a stabilization of risk by cohort was accompanied by period-specific declines. In southern Europe, stable period, but increasing cohort trends, were observed. Substantial changes have occurred in cervical SCC incidence in Europe and well-organized screening programs have been highly effective in reducing the incidence of cervical SCC. Screening and changing sexual mores largely explain the changing period- and cohort-specific patterns, respectively. The increasing risk in recent cohorts is of obvious concern particularly in countries where no screening programs are in place. Further investigation of the effectiveness of opportunistic screening is warranted as is the observation of differing risk patterns in young cohorts in countries with relatively similar societal structures.

Ovarian cancer in Europe: Cross-sectional trends in incidence and mortality in 28 countries, 1953-2000.

We have considered trends in incidence and mortality in 28 European countries using incidence data from successive volumes of Cancer Incidence in Five Continents and mortality from the WHO database. Countries with the highest rates in the early 1960s included the Nordic countries, Austria, Germany and the United Kingdom, but trends in these areas have tended to decline over recent calendar periods, particularly with regard to mortality. Southern European countries showed upward trends, at least until the early 1980s for France and Italy. Likewise, in most central and eastern European countries, ovarian cancer incidence and mortality rates were originally relatively low, but tended to rise over time. Falls in mortality, but not in incidence, over recent years were observed in the Czech Republic and Hungary. In several countries, mainly in northern Europe, trends were more favorable at younger age (25-49 years) than in the subsequent age groups. Thus, recent trends in ovarian cancer have led to a leveling of rates across various areas of the continent, although a 2.5-fold variation was still observed in the late 1990s between the highest mortality rate of 9.3/100,000 in Denmark and the lowest one of 3.6 in Portugal. These patterns should be viewed in the light of an observed reduction in parity, mainly in southern and eastern Europe, and the spread of oral contraceptive use, mainly in northern Europe, since these are the best recognized protective factors with regard to ovarian carcinogenesis. The declining mortality trends can also in part be ascribed to improvements in treatment.

Comparison of cardiac troponin I versus T and creatine kinase MB after coronary artery bypass grafting in patients with and without perioperative myocardial infarction.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Cardiac troponins have shown to be specific markers of myocardial injury. The aim of this prospective study was to compare patterns and kinetics of troponin I and T after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) with or without perioperative myocardial infarction (PMI). PATIENTS AND METHODS: 119 patients (male/female: 96/23, age 64 +/- 10 years) underwent first time elective CABG. Preoperative mean ejection fraction was 55.8% +/- 15.6%. The mean number of grafts was 3.1 +/- 1.1/patient, in 85.7% the internal mammary artery was used. Cardiac troponin I (cTnI) and T (cTnT) levels, total serum activities of creatine kinase (CK) and creatine kinase isoenzyme MB (CK-MB) were measured before operation, at arrival on the intensive care unit (ICU), and 6, 12, 24, 48, and 120 h after unclamping of the aorta. Twelve lead electrocardiograms (ECGs) were recorded preoperatively and at days 1, 2, and 5. Perioperative data and postoperative cTnI and cTnT levels were correlated statistically. RESULTS: Two patients died due to refractory myocardial failure in the early postoperative period. For further evaluation, patients were divided in two groups according to postoperative ECG changes (group I: patients without PMI, n = 107; group II: patients with PMI, n = 10: six of them with Q-wave and four of them with non-Q-wave PMI). Calculated best cutoff values for cTnI and cTnT were 8.35 microg/l and 0.768 microg/l in ROC (receiver-operator characteristic) analysis. Serum concentrations of cTnI, and cTnT were in the normal range preoperatively and increased significantly after surgery in both groups. In both groups, cTnI reached its medium peak level after 24 h (group I: 2.7 microg/l, 95% confidence interval [CI]: [2.1,3.2]); group II: 70.5 microg/l). CTnT reached its medium peak level in group I without PMI after 48 h (0.298 microg/l, 95% CI: [0.254,0.354]), in group II with PMI not until 120 h (3.0 microg/l) postoperatively. In group II serum level of both troponins remained considerably high at 120 h (cTnI median = 10.75 microg/l, cTnT median = 3 microg/l). CONCLUSION: Release patterns of cTnI and cTnT after CABG are different: cTnI reaches its postoperative peak value earlier and declines more quickly than cTnT. After uncomplicated CABG, serum levels of both cardiac troponins remain continuously low. Elevated concentrations reflect perioperative myocardial ischemia or infarction. CTnT shows a different release pattern in patients with or without myocardial infarction.